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0I’ll start an article about Wilin Rosario by talking about Ramon Hernandez just to spite you. Here’s the amount of games Ramon has played by season since 2007: 106, 133, 81, 97, 91. Unlike Benjamin Button, Ramon has actually gotten older over those 5 years and will be 36 in May. So we are putting an aging catcher who can’t stay healthy behind the plate in Colorado and slapping an ADP tag of 259 on it? BTW, that’s ahead of catchers like Carlos Ruiz, A.J. Pierzinski, and Ryan Hanigan. Why do I bring up Ryan Hanigan you ask? Simple, he’s the guy that caught the other games for Cincy last year when Hurtnandez was out. He’s being slotted behind his rookie incumbent – Devin Mesoraco - in ADP despite having a similar output expectation to Ramon. None of this makes any FIP’in sense and its so mind-boggling I’ve almost completely forgotten who this post was supposed to be about.
First off, the negatives. Rosario strikes out alot and has a minimal walk-rate so he’s never going to win you a batting title. With that in mind, go look at his career ISO across all levels: those kind of power numbers make ISO horny! If J.P. Arencibia taught us anything last year, HRs are nice even when they come with a .220 average, which Wilin might saddle you with. However, J.P. is going at more than double the price at 179. We’re comparing apples to apples here – which I said while holding my tongue between my fingers – so hold out until you get what you want for half price. Right now, Rosario’s ADP is 450 at Mock Draft Central and 483 at Fleaflicker.
There’s another interesting thing you need to consider when pricing Wilin’s potential. Todd Helton is old; like ‘he’d be a great granduncle in the Appalachian Mountains’ old. Even if you think Ramon Hernandez is going to give you 130 games this year, who’s to say they will all be behind the plate? He played 30 games at 1st for the Reds in 2009. If Wilin gets you 400 ABs, something I feel he has a strong chance at getting, you’re getting 20 HRs from a player everyone felt was an afterthought going into the season. Seriously, those ADP rankings were made by a buncha apples if you ask me.
Great stuff, ONC. Any insight/news on Wil Nieves possibly beating Rosario for the backup job out of spring training?
@peter, Seriously don’t know how I keep not replying correctly but hopefully this works:
I haven’t heard anything but wouldn’t be surprised if it happened. Still think there’s a good chance he’s up due to improvement or injury early enough to get value from him either way.
@Oregon Nut Cups, Ha! Thanks for the insight.
I’ve thought about getting both Hernandez and Rosario on my roster. Plug-in whomever is starting on the daily. It would cost two very late round picks. Likely to fill the 162 games played max for season.
I feel like I’ve found it useful to get a backstop in there on off-days for the counting stats, but it seems like it could be an unsound strategy.
Is the strategy of carrying 2 catchers in a 1-catcher league a waste of 1 of the 4 bench spots?
@uziguzi, You’d be better served going with another OF or SP (or anything except C) with the bench spots. More often than not, the average OF (or CI, etc.) can provide better counting stats than the average C.
Also, there is less guarantee that your spare C will even be starting on off days.
@peter, Thanks! Makes sense.
@uziguzi, Personally I wouldn’t do it. I also wouldn’t be drafting either guy in a 1 catcher league unless we’re talking 20 team. In a 12 team, 1-catcher redraft, I’d aim for a guy like Wilson Ramos.
@Oregon Nut Cups, Thanks – good advice!
@Oregon Nut Cups, So, what is a good catcher strategy throughout the year? Do you pick up a backup here and there to fill-in the 20+ games your catcher will miss? Seems careless to just take zeroes for that many games, regardless of the position. What do you do?
@uziguzi, that’s really the name of the game at catcher, though. Plus let’s realize the guy you’re putting in in most scenarios is a back up for a reason. You’re out 20+ games just like everyone else is and let’s remember one major thing: it’s a defensive position. I would rather have a bench bat like a Luke Scott over David Ross if I have Brian McCann. But again, in a 12 team mixed (which I’m assuming you’re in) and a 1-c, you probably have enough good waiver wire bats to swing back and forth on throughout the season. It just might be more labor intensive than needed for those extra 20 games and you are spinning the roulette wheel as to whether the day you pick up Salty or some other low end C that you’ll get production out of them. Could help, could hurt, but I wouldn’t sit on a back-up catcher on my bench.
@Oregon Nut Cups, Thanks, man! I appreciate you taking the time to be thorough in your explanation. That helps me out a lot.
Nice work, btw, with your articles – they’re good.
@uziguzi, No problem and thanks!
I haven’t heard anything but wouldn’t be surprised if it happened. Still think there’s a good chance he’s up due to improvement or injury early enough to get value from him either way.
Oregon Nut Cups gettin’ out of the forums and onto the main page! Congrats!
@Beardawg, thanks dawg! And I mean that in a play on your name way and a straight G sort of way too.
Nice article, but feel I should say that “rookie incumbent” doesn’t really make sense
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Also, I’m glad I don’t play in any two-catcher leagues
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@Sean, Yeah, I just googled that found out you were my Inigo Montoya to my Vizzini. Though while googling it, found we were the the fifth link down so tell your friends to look for any and all rookie incumbents
It’s a political term, I guess that’s what I get for trying to trust politicians.
Two catcher leagues are a bit of a pain but you still always want to wait on them. They’re only 130 to 140 games unless they’re Carlos Santana.