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You may think I’m high for this. In the slack channel for the #Razz30 our very own @Ralph Lifshitz himself mentioned that the Mets 5th man Robert Gsellman just may not be that good. And he may be right. Or…maybe not?

Don’t all race to raise your hands when I ask who wants a SP with a 6.23 ERA that just got lit up by my still-one-year-away Atlanta Braves. I know that’s not exciting, just like if Phil asked ‘Who wants a mustache ride?‘ above. But what if the Phil Dunphy wisdom bomb in that gif actually plays out with our highlighted man? What if Ralph’s wrong and we’re dealing with a great buy low option?

Now that I feel like I’ve used-car salesman’d (yep, we’re making that a verb) you for 30 seconds, let’s cut to the chase. The Mets rotation has more red crosses in it than the road in Mereen after Daenerys crucified the previous slavers. And that was a bloody mess. Awful to see. I’m not totally sure what’s happening to seemingly every Mets stud starting pitcher, but with Noah Syndergaard’s biceps trouble another one bites the dust. Sure, they got Zack Wheeler to return, Matt Harvey’s been impressive in his bounce back, and Jacob deGrom is still dominant (for now), but Steven Matz caught the bug the preseason, as well as Thor. Hell, even  Seth Lugo couldn’t avoid the plague happening in New York? Goodness, what pharaoh pissed off Moses in that organization?

Now, back to the focus of Gsellman. Not even 24 years old, he flashed enough promise through the minors to be the first named called up when it became clear Lugo and Matz couldn’t crack opening day. However, while his ERA, FIP and BB/9 were all impressive, strikeouts were not his forte. In his short debut last season, and thus far in 2017, the storyline’s been different: 66.1 IP and 64 Ks. That’s a small part of the picture, but when you see the whole portrait, especially the deeper cats, you find a great buy-low option. While ~70% of baserunners are usually left on-base (LOB%), Gsellman’s strand rate sits at only 52.5% this year. That will change. As will his HR/FB% that sits at 16.7%. 1 out of every 6 fly balls don’t leave the yard across a whole season. Oh yeah, and there’s the whole .377 BABIP thing. He’s not facing Tony Gwynn every at bat.

So, now that I’ve overwhelmed you with peripheral stats, here’s the bottom line. Is he as good as his 2.42 ERA and 2.63 FIP from last year? Maybe not, but he’s also not as bad as his current 6.23 ERA suggests. Meet in the middle and you have a 4 ERA (which is still higher than his current FIP) with a strong strikeout rate. Add in all the opportunity to remain in the rotation against a middling NL East and I’d put him on all my watch lists. Especially for his two starts this week.

Pitchers are listed in order by rank. Colors represent 8 toughest or 8 easiest opponents according to team wOBA for last 14 days.

THE BEST

Player Opponents ERA/FIP K9/BB9
Chris Sale BOS BAL, @MIN 1.19/1.15 12.42/1.43

THE REPLICAS

Player Opponents ERA/FIP K9/BB9
Corey Kluber CLE @DET, @KC 4.19/4.17 9.70/3.15
Jon Lester CHC PHI, NYY 3.68/3.59 7.98/2.76
Johnny Cueto SF @LAD, @CIN 5.00/5.11 7.20/3.00
James Paxton SEA LAA, TEX 1.39/1.15 10.86/1.67
Danny Duffy KC CHW, CLE 2.81/3.63 6.75/3.38
Lance McCullers HOU TEX, @LAA 4.34/3.46 11.17/2.79
Justin Verlander DET CLE, @OAK 4.60/3.62 9.20/3.99
Luis Severino NYY TOR, @CHC 3.00/2.93 11.00/1.33
Carlos Martinez STL MIL, @ATL 4.71/3.77 12.24/4.00
Rick Porcello BOS BAL, @MIN 4.75/4.36 9.49/2.67
Jose Quintana CHW @KC, @BAL 5.22/4.71 9.20/4.30

THE STANDARDS

Player Opponents ERA/FIP K9/BB9
Gerrit Cole PIT @CIN, MIL 3.60/3.97 8.10/1.80
Dylan Bundy BAL @BOS, CHW 1.65/2.95 6.34/1.65
Julio Teheran ATL NYM, STL 3.38/4.13 6.75/4.60
Sean Manaea OAK @MIN, DET 5.18/3.29 9.99/4.44
Tanner Roark WAS ARI, @PHI 3.64/3.58 6.37/2.73

THE KNOCKOFFS

Player Opponents ERA/FIP K9/BB9
Robert Gsellman NYM @ATL, MIA 6.23/3.70 9.14/3.74
Matt Shoemaker LAA @SEA, HOU 4.73/5.52 8.44/3.71
Cole Hamels TEX @HOU, @SEA 3.03/5.15 4.13/3.31
Hector Santiago MIN OAK, BOS 2.43/3.45 6.98/2.43
Erasmo Ramirez TB @MIA, TOR 2.41/4.03 6.27/0.96

THE 8c65e5de808ec301754508366480250c

Player Opponents ERA/FIP K9/BB9
Trevor Bauer CLE @DET, @KC 6.26/4.31 10.96/2.74
Brett Anderson CHC PHI, NYY 3.54/3.89 6.20/4.87
R.A. Dickey ATL NYM, STL 3.80/5.12 6.08/3.82
Trevor Cahill SD COL, LAD 4.50/3.09 11.25/4.13
Mike Fiers HOU TEX, @LAA 5.12/7.97 7.45/3.72
Wei-Yin Chen MIA TB, @NYM 4.71/4.48 5.57/2.14
Jeremy Hellickson PHI @CHC, WAS 1.80/3.64 3.30/0.90
Zach Davies MIL @STL, @PIT 6.57/4.14 8.03/4.01
Vince Velasquez PHI @CHC, WAS 6.33/5.82 9.28/5.06
Alex Cobb TB @MIA, TOR 4.66/4.42 6.52/1.68
Daniel Norris DET CLE, @OAK 4.71/3.77 6.43/4.71
Scott Feldman CIN PIT, SF 3.25/4.09 7.81/4.23
Edinson Volquez MIA TB, @NYM 4.44/4.45 8.51/5.18
Tyler Glasnow PIT @CIN, MIL 7.98/4.64 10.43/7.98
Nathan Karns KC CHW, CLE 6.26/6.05 7.43/3.52
Tyler Chatwood COL @SD, ARI 4.88/5.56 6.32/3.16
Andrew Cashner TEX @HOU, @SEA 2.93/6.20 4.70/7.63
Wily Peralta MIL @STL, @PIT 5.19/5.85 6.92/3.81
Dylan Covey CHW @KC, @BAL 6.91/6.77 3.77/5.02
Rookie Davis CIN PIT, SF 11.17/7.35 8.28/6.52

All pitchers are projected for two-starts as of Friday night.

 

Good luck in Week 5! Keep checking back for your weekly lineup needs. Oh, and don’t be afraid to ask your questions. On life. On pitchers. On ranks. On…well, just…

DROP THOSE COMMENTS!

Follow M@ on Twitter at @matthayes for far more than just fantasy advice.

 
  1. Jose says:
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    Dude would you start john lAckey vs boston tonight? Or is a bad matchup

    • M@

      M@ says:
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      @Jose: Late on this I assume. Sorry man. Been with fam the past 24 hours.

      Did you go with him?

  2. HailMary says:
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    Kershaw???

    • M@

      M@ says:
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      @HailMary: Yep, he’s got two. On Friday when I wrote this the reports were saying he’d be Sunday. Going off that instead of some other sites saying he’d go Monday.

      Anywho, he’s at the top. Easy. (Sale close, tho)

  3. Roger Anderson says:
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    Maybe I am reading this wrong but isn’t Kershaw a 2 start SP this week? Monday and Sunday.

    • M@

      M@ says:
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      @Roger Anderson: No, you’re right. He’s twice. Wasn’t in the reports I was reading on Friday, but he’s Monday instead of today. Put him at the top.

  4. Andrew Edenbaum says:
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    Forgot Kershaw. He doubles !

    • M@

      M@ says:
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      @Andrew Edenbaum: Yep! He does. Slot him at the top.

      • goodfold2 says:
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        @M@: funny when 3 in a row don’t read comments. it’s not a common occurrence at all to see that many.

        • M@

          M@ says:
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          @goodfold2: Haha, I know. I should have gotten him in there.

  5. Chad Roberts says:
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    How would you rank the following pitchers ROS in a H2H category league with QS instead of W?

    Trevor Bauer
    Sonny Gray
    Joe Ross
    Matt Shoemaker

    • M@

      M@ says:
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      @Chad Roberts: Shoemaker, Ross, Gray, Bauer. Flip the list.

  6. Andrew Edenbaum says:
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    Walker also 2 steps.

    • M@

      M@ says:
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      @Andrew Edenbaum: Taijuan. My man. I’d put him right above Dylan Bundy. He’s actually pitching even better than his stats are showing.

  7. Chris says:
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    Is Jankowski worth hanging on to?

    • M@

      M@ says:
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      @Chris: No. Drop him. He’s gotta hit at least the .246 from last year to get on enough to prove worthy of rostering.

      • Chris says:
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        Thanks!

  8. Mike says:
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    Who do you stream today: Ryu (v PHI) or Gonzalez (v DET)

    • M@

      M@ says:
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      @Mike: I’d go Gonzalez over Ryu. I’m late on that tho. Where did you land?

      • Mike says:
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        @M@: Ryu and based on gonzo’s line, I made a good choice

        • M@

          M@ says:
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          @Mike: Boom. He was incredible. My NL-Only team was super happy for that.

  9. dfrench23 says:
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    For the upcoming week starting Tuesday which two RPs do I want? Betances, Maurer, S.Kelley, Norris, Benoit,Casilla, Romo, or even take a chance on Capps?

    • M@

      M@ says:
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      @dfrench23: Betances and Kelley are my first thoughts, but, despite the name thoughts, Bud Norris has been incredibly good the past two weeks. Go with two of those three. Casilla next in line.

      • dfrench23 says:
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        @M@: thanks! I can put in a waiver claim on Glasnow and drop Smardzjia…should I do it?

        • M@

          M@ says:
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          @dfrench23: Go for the upside. Samardjiza is nothing to hold ransom over.

  10. M says:
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    Not worried Gsellman is pitching hurt?

    • M@

      M@ says:
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      @M: I haven’t read about that. I sure as heck hope not, given the 600 words up above. But, man…would totally fit the bill the rest of ’em!

      • M says:
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        @M@: no news Gsell is hurt but I wonder if he’s been hiding an injury but yes would join the rest of them!

        • M@

          M@ says:
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          @M: Praying that doesn’t happen as a fantasy fan. As a Braves fan, wouldn’t be upset.

  11. Not your average Joe says:
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    Should we asterisk in Alex Wood? He might be starting on Tuesday and Sunday I think.

    • M@

      M@ says:
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      @Not your average Joe: Yeah, he could slot in. If he does I’d put him in the fourth tier.

  12. Robert says:
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    J. Ross or M. Cain?

    • M@

      M@ says:
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      @Robert: Can’t believe it’s 2017 and Matt Cain is an option, haha. I’d go with Ross. He’s been shaky to start the year but he’s the better choice.

  13. Jerry says:
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    Hey, Ma. What about Odorrizi this upcoming week? He’s back and has two starts. Also, Hellickson, Maeda, Odorizzi or Joe Ross ros in a head to head points league? Thanks for the help!

    • M@

      M@ says:
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      @Jerry: Points, go for the W. I’d probably take Hellickson or Ross. However, if Odorizzi is actually back with 2, you gotta go there.

  14. Andrew Edenbaum says:
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    Dodgers going with 6 man rotation for awhile. Kershaw won’t be 2 stepping next week either.

  15. Da Champ says:
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    Drop J. Ross for Triggs ROS?

    QS, ERA, WHIP, K, SV/HLD

  16. HomerHWBush says:
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    What about Amir Garrett? Home vs. Pit and SF?

    • M@

      M@ says:
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      @HomerHWBush: Didn’t have him in there. My b. I want to see a rebound to what he did those first three starts. #4 was unkind. Hopefully he does, and those lineups are ripe for the pickin’. I’d put him right above Shoemaker.

  17. goodfold2 says:
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    RALPH is saying gsellman isn’t any good?! he was high as F on that guy just months ago (even less probably, i’m going by his rankings which were months ago). until i saw a lot of other team lists i thought he was nuts about gsellman (who WAS listed in BA’s 2016 book at like 26th for NYM prospects, so i was hesitant in the first place with him.

    • M@

      M@ says:
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      @goodfold2: His minors numbers aren’t super impressive, but he’s been solid since coming up. Could be a Francisco Lindor type situation. That’s probably not the best comp, but a good scenario of someone fully projecting once they get to the majors and not before.

      Ralph likes him still, it was just passing in the convo following the Braves shellacking.

      • goodfold2 says:
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        @M@: well except lindor always a pretty high prospect (some of that from the defense obviously). if you mean lindor’s HR uptick since hitting MLB, that might be a good comp. like i said 1 exact year ago and a few months BA prospect handbook had gsellman 14th prospect at just NYM. i had that wrong, not in the mid-20’s, but still he was a 50 rating with high risk (not the highest risk of course) but expectations were “back end starter or swingman” it’s why i was so surprised that a month or so that was good in MLB moved him up that much in this year’s preseason prospect rankings (not just ralph’s, he was high in most of them)

        • M@

          M@ says:
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          @goodfold2: Yes, mainly the power/fantasy side of Lindor’s development. That was unexpected.

          I’d say a lot of the hope with Gsellman came from his strong debut last season more so than his prospect profile and projection. He outperformed expectations in 2016, but after last night night he’s still disappointing a bit this year. I’m just not giving up on him yet. Hold, not fold.

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