Fantasy Baseball Advice

Backne Gets Scratched

May 11, 2008 By: Grey Category: May's Daily Notes 36 Comments →

It’s with no regret that I announce (Well, I’m not exactly announcing it. The Brewers are, but bear with me.) that Eric Gagne is no longer the closer. Officially, the Brewers say it’s a mental break. I say, it’s a “You can’t take steroids anymore and the Brewers should’ve never acquired him in the first place” break. On Friday, I told you I think Salomon Torres will walk away with a large chunk of saves. If he’s gone, as a speculation on Gagne’s replacement, you have to grab Mota or Riske. Grab everyone basically, even Shouse, if you need saves. I think Gagne will be eventually back closing for the Brewers and he’ll get five or six more saves before he undoubtably needs another mental break. Guess now he’ll have time to tuck in his shirt. Anyway, here’s what else I (and others) saw yesterday:

Johnny Cueto – I missed the Mets game because I was hungover and needed to submerge my head into a tub of ice. So I put Rudy on the case, here’s what he said over IM, “Castillo got a gift triple in the first which led to 3 runs, but they were crushing Cueto in the first 2 IP. Then 2 innings were fine. Then a bullshit infield single for Castillo. K’d Wright. Then hung a curve that Beltran hit into orbit. No great story other than Cueto’s stuff is good, but remains a risky bet. I wish I traded him to you instead of Zach Attack. Parra’s unstartable, but I’m starting Cueto outside of Colorado. BTW, you’re the greatest writer in the history of blogs. In fact, blogs should be renamed to Glegs, which is a portmanteau (Word of the Day).”  Thanks, Rudy.

Brian Bannister – I was vomiting blood during this game, so I turned to my Uncle Yitz, who lives in KC, “Bannister is luckier than a blind man in a braille store.” Thanks, Uncle Yitz.

Carl Crawford – Blood turned to phlegm so I let Momma Grey write this one for Mother’s Day, “Carl who? Is that our mailman?” “Maybe you’re thinking of Karl Malone.” “Karl Malone is our mailman’s name?” Thanks, Mom! I still believe Crawford gets over 20 home runs and I’d trade for ‘our mailman’ in a second.

Ryan Braun – Everyone’s well aware of my stance on Braun, but he did hit two home runs yesterday. I say sell, but you do what you do.

Shawn Hill – Still not getting Ks or Ws like I’d want, but in deep leagues, you can do a lot worse. Actually, in shallow leagues you could do worse.

Khalil Greene – Been a buy low candidate for me for about a month. He is what he is, which is 25 home runs. If you like that sort of thing, you’ll enjoy KG.

Santiago Casilla – Finally gave up some runs, but he just got another win. Listen, when it’s time to bail, I’ll give you a heads up, but fantasy baseball is like a craps table. When the table’s hot, ride the effin’ table. When the table’s cold, go to a strip club.

Jonathan Broxton – I know you want to drop him quickfast. I think that’s being too reactionary. He recently had problems with his lat muscle, so he might not be himself. Bench him for a few days to see if yesterday’s outing was a one time bludgeoning or if you need to do a mercy killing.

Justin Speier – Not sure if anyone’s on this train wreck, but you need to get off, you ain’t ‘Unbreakable.’

Ervin Santana – Missed this game because my girlfriend was administering an IV, but his final line surprises me less than his first month of stats, if that makes sense — sweet!

Dan Uggla – If he hits forty, he’s worth the average. Otherwise, I’m not a fan. BTW, missed this game because I needed to be rushed to the hospital.

Nick Blackburn – Returned from the hospital in time to see this game. Honestly, I’m not buying into this guy. He seems usable with the right match-ups, but not on any of my teams. Not right now. Now I’m going to down an aspirin, a Bloody Mary and a ‘lude and hope this hangover goes away. Remind me not to drink again.

Don’t Meddle With Middling Middle Infielders in the Middle Rounds

March 10, 2008 By: Rudy Gamble Category: Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy, Rudy Gamble, Second Basemen, Shortstops, Strategy 8 Comments →

That title make you tongue-tied? Well that’s nothing compared to how tongue-tied most fantasy players get about middle infielders. No positions have fewer bargains in the draft. This post is to make sure you don’t pay scalper rates.

Below is a comparison of middle infielder value comparing Average Draft Position (ADP) on MockDraftCentral.com vs our Point Share rank (+ means # of picks above estimated value, – means picked lower).

(For the full Point Shares rank and explanation, see here. This is based on PECOTA and Shandler projections.)

I’ve created three buckets – Fair Value, Undervalued, and Overvalued – with the cutoff on each side at 15 spots in the ranking (a player is ‘overvalued’ only if his ADP is 15 picks earlier that his Point Shares estimate is his value).

(MockDraftCentral ADP, Point Share Rank, +/-)

Fair Value (within +/- 15 in rank)
Hanley Ramirez (2, 7, +5)
Jose Reyes (4, 14, +10)
Jimmy Rollins (6, 12, +6)
Chase Utley (8, 9, +1)
Brian Roberts (33, 46, +13)
Carlos Guillen (49, 58, +9)
Robinson Cano (64, 74, +10)
Dan Uggla (103, 116, +13)
Placido Polanco (169, 178, +9)
Orlando Hudson (182, 168, -14)

Undervalued
Kelly Johnson (165, 129, -36)
Dustin Pedroia (176, 130, -46)
Khalil Greene (191, 166, -25)
Aaron Hill (192, 153, -39)
Ty Wigginton (214, 151, -63)
Felipe Lopez (219, 174, -45)
Freddy Sanchez (236, 140, -96)
Mark Ellis (264, 189, -75)
Luis Castillo (280, 227, -53)
Asdrubal Cabrera (303,194, -109)

Overvalued
Brandon Phillips (19, 42, +23)
BJ Upton (22, 80, +58)
Derek Jeter (35, 103, +68)
Troy Tulowitzki (45, 68 +23)
Chone Figgins (53, 83 +30)
Ian Kinsler (68, 107, +39)
Miguel Tejada (71, 117 +46)
Rafael Furcal (76, 108, +32)
Michael Young (80, 115, +35)
Edgar Renteria (99, 241, +142)
Rickie Weeks (106, 149, +43)
Howie Kendrick (118, 188, +70)
Orlando Cabrera (123, 211, +88)
JJ Hardy (128, 217, +89)
Jeff Kent (137, 193, +56)
Jhonny Peralta (173, 201, +28)
Kaz Matsui (193, 325, +132)
Stephen Drew (213, 235, +22)

After the first top four middle infielders, all but 4 of the next 14 are overvalued. I think this is because middle infielders are drafted based on upside more than any other position. Or, in other words, they are drafted at picks where they would provide fair value only if they hit their best case on stats vs. their likely case.

Drafting on 30/30, More Likely 20/20: Brandon Phillips, BJ Upton
Drafting to Improve vs. Last Year, More Likely to Repeat at Best: Troy Tulowitzki, Ian Kinsler
Drafting For Big Bounceback, More Likely to Repeat/Slightly Improve: Miguel Tejada, Rafael Furcal
Drafting On Hope, More Likely To Underperform vs. Expectation: Rickie Weeks, Howie Kendrick
Drafting on Yesteryear, More Likely to Produce a Lesser Tomorrow: Derek Jeter, Edgar Renteria, Orlando Cabrera, Jeff Kent

Now I’m not going to invest time in the majority of these cases as at least there is a chance they might produce fair value. Here are three that I think will definitely not produce fair value based on their current ADP:

Derek Jeter – I’m a Yankee fan. Great player both on the field and in the NYC bars. But he’s hit 20+ HR once in the last 5 years. He’s stolen 25+ SB once in the 5 years. He’s hit 80+ RBI once in the last 5 years. Yes, he delivers runs and AVG but the former stat declined from 122 to 102 over the past 3 years and batting average is a slave to regression (good article on it here). Here are the projections I have for him this year: 93/10/66/13/.303. I think he has upside in all those categories but drafting him at #35 means you’ve got him at something much closer to 2005’s 122/19/70/34/.343. Chances he’ll hit that – I’ll say 5%. If you really want a Yankee MI, wait until the 6th or 7th round and take Cano – much better value.

Edgar Renteria – Renteria is an AWFUL middle round pick. He’s ‘Latin’ 32 this year (more likely 34), returning to the league that overmatched him in 2005, and is a prime candidate to see 40 points fall off his batting average (that .332 was a fluke due to a high increase in BABIP). Has hit 15+ HR only once in his career (2000) and hasn’t stolen more than 17 bases since 2003. Prediction: Fails to hit 12 HR or steal 12 SB. Will be on the waiver wire in many 5×5 10 team leagues by mid-season. I’d rather have DP mate Polanco and he’s going 7 rounds later.

Orlando Cabrera
– Vlad’s little buddy won’t be seeing as many fastballs and runs now that he doesn’t have the Impaler behind him. Wow that sounded gay. But what’s more distasteful is taking this guy anytime before, say, the 18th round. What’s to like? He hasn’t hit more than 10 HR since 2003. Has stolen 20+ SB the last three years but he’s 33 this year – can’t count on much more than 15 SB. His .301 last year was a fluke – his average the previous two years was .257 and .282. I suppose he’s picked higher based on familiarity but, in this case, familiarity should breed contempt. Another guy likely to find the waiver wire at some point this season in mixed leagues.

So here is my simple MI drafting strategy for you…don’t reach! There are a few guys in the first 7 rounds that you can get at close to fair value. After that, just draft other positions until the 13th round or so and start picking up some of the Undervalued guys (or if an Overvalued guy tumbles). There is enough depth out there that you could pick up guys in the 20th round (Sanchez, Ellis, Wigginton) who’ll likely outperform several of the MIs taken in the middle rounds.