Fantasy Baseball Advice

The Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame in conjunction with Razzball.com, are electing the All-Star teams of the Fantasy Era. For every season from 1980 to today full 23 man rosters will be created and analyzed. In the second installment the 1995 through 1997 seasons are identified.

Year: 1995
First Time All Stars: 11 – Edgar Martinez, Jose Mesa, Mike Mussina, Hideo Nomo, Tim Salmon, Pete Schourek, Sammy Sosa, Mike Stanley, Jon Valentin, Mo Vaughn, Mark Wohlers
5 Time All Stars: 4 – Barry Bonds, David Cone, Greg Maddux, Frank Thomas
10 Time All Stars: None
Future FBHOF’ers: 9 – Albert Belle, Craig Biggio, Bonds, Cone, Randy Johnson, Maddux, Mike Piazza, Sosa, Thomas,
Snubs: 2 – Chuck Knoblauch (11.9), Reggie Sanders (11.7)
16 Pt Season: 1 – Maddux (17.3)

1995 was the calm before the storm. This team was ranked 14th overall and the All-Stars would soon head into a stretch of four consecutive Top 10 teams, finishing with the best three of all time.

With the exception of relief pitching, all other positions were ranked between 8th and 16th making the team about average in total. For every Mike Piazza (12.6 FBHOF points) there seemed to be a Mike Stanley (5.9 FBHOF points) to counterbalance the team more towards mediocrity. Greg Maddux had an incredible year (17 FBHOF Points, 19 W, 0.81 WHIP, 1.63 ERA) but his All-Star teammate David Cone managed just 9.2 FBHOF points.

One important aspect of 1995 stands out though. Not only was Maddux great, but for the first time in the fantasy era there were two 16 point pitchers in the same year. Joining Maddux is #2 starter Randy Johnson who tossed 214 innings with a 1.05 WHIP and 2.48 ERA, winning 18 and striking out 294.

On offense, Albert Belle and Dante Bichette led the way with 15+ FBHOF point seasons and hitting 90 HR and 254 RBI combined.

Positional Ranking Among the 28 Teams
C: 16th
IF: 12th
OF: 11th
SP: 8th
RP: 27th
Overall: 14th

Year: 1996
First Time All Stars: 11 – Kevin Brown, Ellis Burks, Ken Caminiti, Jeff Fassero, Pat Hentgen, Chipper Jones, Chuck Knoblauch, Robb Nen, Alex Rodriguez, Mel Rojas, John Smoltz
3 Time All Stars: 4 – Albert Belle, Dante Bichette, Ken Griffey Jr, Mike Piazza
5 Time All Stars: 2 – Barry Bonds, Greg Maddux
10 Time All Stars: None
Future FBHOF’ers: 9 – Belle, Bonds, Brown, Griffey Jr, Jones, Maddux, Piazza, Rodriguez, Smoltz
Snubs: 3 – Brady Anderson (11.7), Gary Sheffield (11.6), Frank Thomas (11.5)
16 Pt Season: 2 – John Smoltz (16.8), Ellis Burks (16.2)

Due to the strength of their potent offense, the 1996 All Stars rank 7th overall. The infield was very good (7th) with only the 2nd catcher Ivan Rodriguez failing to score 10 FBHOF points. First Basemen Andres Galarraga hit 47 HR and drove in 150; Second Basemen Chuck Knoblauch batted .341 with 140 R; Third Basemen Ken Caminiti hit 40 HR; and future FBHOF’er Alex Rodriguez made his first All-Star appearance batting .358 with 141 R, 36 HR, 123 RBI, and 15 SB as the starting shortstop. Other FBHOF’ers making their first all star appearances were Chipper Jones, John Smoltz, and Kevin Brown.

Smoltz was the best player on the team with 16.8 FBHOF points after putting up career highs in Wins, WHIP, ERA, and strikeouts. Ellis Burks’ season was the best ever for a non Fantasy Baseball Hall of Famer, he went: .344 AVG, 142 R, 40 HR, 128 RBI, 32 SB for 16.2 FBHOF points.

The outfield, led by Burks, was stellar, finishing 5th overall. Barry Bonds had a 40/40 season and a .300 batting average; Albert Belle hit 48 HR and almost reached 150 RBI; Kenny Lofton stole 75 bases with 132 runs and a batting average well over .300; and Ken Griffey Jr. had one of his best years going 125 / 49 / 140.

Multiple time All Stars Bichette, Lofton, Hideo Nomo, Mo Vaughn made their last All Star appearances in 1996.

Positional Ranking Among the 28 Teams
C: 12th
IF: 7th
OF: 5th
SP: 18th
RP: 18th
Overall: 7th

Year: 1997
First Time All Stars: 6 – Nomar Garciaparra, Darryl Kile, Pedro Martinez, Raul Mondesi, Jeff Shaw, Larry Walker
3 Time All Stars: 6 – Craig Biggio, Andres Galarraga, Ken Griffey Jr, Trevor Hoffman, Ivan Rodriguez, Randy Jonson
5 Time All Stars: 5 – Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux, Mike Piazza, Frank Thomas
10 Time All Stars: None
Future FBHOF’ers: 14 – Jeff Bagwell, Biggio, Bonds, Clemens, Griffey, Johnson, Chipper Jones, Maddux, Martinez, Piazza, Alex Rodriguez, Curt Schilling, Thomas, Walker
Snubs: Vinny Castilla (11.2), Tino Martinez (10.2)
16 Pt Season: 2 – Larry Walker (19.4), Roger Clemens (16.2)

Never in the history of fantasy baseball has such a collection of talent been assembled. This team has it all:

.350+ AVG: Tony Gwynn, Mike Piazza, Larry Walker
50+ HR: Ken Griffey Jr
140+ R: Craig Biggio, Walker
140+ RBI: Andres Galarraga, Griffey
20+ W: Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson
Sub-1.00 WHIP: Greg Maddux, Pedro Martinez
Sub-2.00 ERA: Martinez
300+ K: Curt Schilling, Martinez
40+ S: Jeff Shaw

The only missing attribute was a preeminent base stealer, though six players did have 25 or more, capped off by Biggio’s 47.

This team was also second to none in terms of elite seasons. A record five players recorded FBHOF scores of 15 or better:

The crown jewel of the ’97 All Stars is Walker, who amassed more FBHOF points in a single season than any other batter in fantasy history. Walker was good enough to lead the league in On Base percentage, Slugging Percentage, OPS, Total Bases, Home Runs, Runs Created, Extra Base Hits and several other Sabermetric minded stats like Offensive Winning Percentage and Adjusted Batting Runs. He was also Top-Three in Runs, Hits, Doubles, and RBI. It was an all around masterful season and I for one can’t wait to see how it stacks up against the greats of earlier decades (hint hint about future FBHOF developments).

Frank Thomas and Galarraga appeared on their last All Star roster and welcomed newcomers Nomar Garciaparra, Darryl Kile, Martinez, and Walker.

Positional Ranking Among the 28 Teams
C: 2nd
IF: 14th
OF: 4th
SP: 1st
RP: 22nd
Overall: 1st

The Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame in conjunction with Razzball.com, are electing the All-Star teams of the Fantasy Era. For every season from 1980 to today full 23 man rosters will be created and analyzed. In the second installment the 1992 through 1994 seasons are identified.

Year: 1992
First Time All Stars: 10 – Roberto Alomar, Carlos Baerga, Brady Anderson, Darren Daulton, Travis Fryman, Marquis Grissom, Doug Jones, Dennis Martinez, Curt Schilling, Gary Sheffield
3 Time All Stars: 6 – Barry Bonds, Joe Carter, David Cone, Dennis Eckersley, Greg Maddux, Mickey Tettleton, Kirby Puckett
5 Time All Stars: 3 – Roger Clemens, Paul Molitor, Ryne Sandberg
10 Time All Stars: None
Future FBHOF’ers: 11 – Alomar, Bonds, Clemens, Cone, Greg Maddux, Frank Thomas
Snubs: 2 – Terry Pendleton (11.4), Ray Lankford (11.2)
16 Pt Season: None

The finest All-Star teams were assembled in the late 1990’s, coinciding exactly with the period of off the charts offensive levels and thanks to the ability a handful of great pitchers who were able to maintain their own production levels despite this increase. While the early 1990’s featured some of the worst all star squads, several key greats made their first appearances in this timeframe. Roberto Alomar, Albert Belle, Jeff Bagwell, Barry Bonds, Ken Griffey Jr., Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux, Mike Piazza, Sammy Sosa, Curt Schilling, Gary Sheffield, and Frank Thomas each made their first all star team between 1990-1993.

This wasn’t much of a help in 1992. In only a few rare cases in baseball history do players have their best season the first time they’re considered great, rather, they start good, become great, level off to good again and then retire. So while the 1992 team may be riddled with all-star names, they hadn’t quite reached superstar status yet. In fact, the 1992 team is the second worst on record.

Their two defining qualities were the catchers and relief corps – which happen to be the two least important aspects of any fantasy team. Darren Daulton and Mickey Tettleton were power hitting backstops, averaging 29 HR, 96 RBI, and 81 R between them. Daulton even threw in 11 stolen bases for good measure. The two were good enough to be ranked 2nd best among all star teams that didn’t feature Mike Piazza.

No closer had an ERA above 2.00 and Doug Jones, Dennis Eckersley, and Duane Ward combined to strike out nearly 300 batters.

The Toronto Blue Jays, led by fantasy All Stars Roberto Alomar, Joe Carter, and Ward bested the Atlanta Braves 4 games to 2 in the World Series.

Positional Ranking Among the 28 Teams
C: 6th
IF: 26th
OF: 19th
SP: 28th
RP: 9th
Overall: 27th

Year: 1993
First Time All Stars: 11 – Kevin Appier, Rod Beck, Albert Belle, Juan Gonzalez, Ken Griffey Jr, Randy Johnson, Jeff Montgomery, Rafael Palmeiro, Mike Piazza, Billy Swift, John Wetteland
3 Time All Stars: 4 –Barry Bonds, Greg Maddux, Ron Gant, Frank Thomas
5 Time All Stars: 1 – Paul Molitor
10 Time All Stars: None
Future FBHOF’ers: 9 – Roberto Alomar, Belle, Bonds, Griffey, Johnson, Maddux, Molitor, Piazza, Thomas
Snubs: Marquis Grissom (11.7), Lenny Dykstra (11.7)
16 Pt Season: Bonds (17.0)

After a long hiatus of ten consecutive well below average teams, the All-Stars of 1993 finally cracked the Top 15. This was not a great team, but after finishing 27th the year before, their 11th place finish was quite remarkable.

The key areas of improvement were in the outfield and starting pitcher positions. Barry Bonds was the best player in fantasy baseball, amassing 17.0 FBHOF points, the first exceptional fantasy season since 1988 when Jose Canseco recorded 18.3 points. Bonds combined power, speed, and a high average as only a select few have done before – .336 AVG, 129 R, 46 HR, 123 RBI, 29 SB. Joining him in the outfield were Ken Griffey Jr, Juan Gonzalez, Albert Belle, and Ron Gant who between them averaged 106 R, 41 HR, 118 RBI, and 18 SB.

While the outfield improved considerably, it was nothing compared to how much better the 1993 pitchers were over their predecessors. They rank 11th, a 17 slot improvement, due to the fact five pitchers scored 11 or more FBHOF Points. Compare this to 1992 when just 2 accomplished the feat. Fantasy Baseball Hall of Famer’s Greg Maddux (20 W, 2.36 ERA) and Randy Johnson (19 W, 308 K) led the charge with 14.5 and 13.9 FBHOF points respectively. While not great names, Jose Rijo, Kevin Appier, and Bill Swift all had great seasons with a combined average 18 W, 1.09 WHIP, 2.62 ERA.

FBHOF’er catcher Mike Piazza made his first in a string of ten consecutive All-Star appearances in 1993, beginning a stretch of greatness unparalleled in fantasy baseball. No player has dominated his position like Piazza. The only catcher elected to the FBHOF, Piazza has the best three year positional score in the history of fantasy baseball. The official FBHOF score is comprised of two data points – scoring against the peers at a player’s position, and a scoring against all players. Looking solely at the positional component:

Piazza ranks first in 3-year peak and second in 5 and 10 year peak scores.

The 1993 World Series featured the famous Joe Carter walk-off home run to lead the Blue Jays past the Phillies in 6 games.  Roberto Alomar and Paul Molitor represented Toronto, and Darren Daulton Philadelphia.

Positional Ranking Among the 28 Teams
C: 14th
IF: 20th
OF: 13th
SP: 11th
RP: 7th
Overall: 11th

Year: 1994
First Time All Stars: 6 – Jeff Bagwell, Dante Bichette, Jeff Brantley, Trevor Hoffman, Kenny Lofton, Ivan Rodriguez
3 Time All Stars: 7 – Carlos Baerga, David Cone, Doug Drabek, Greg Maddux, Frank Thomas, Bret Saberhagen, Matt Williams
5 Time All Stars: 3 – Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Cal Ripken
10 Time All Stars: None
Future FBHOF’ers: 13 – Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Bonds, Albert Belle, Clemens, Cone, Ken Griffey Jr, Randy Jonson, Maddux, Mike Piazza, Saberhagen, Thomas, Ripken,
Snubs: Jose Canseco (11.3, 2nd Snub), Paul Molitor (11.2), Kirby Puckett (11.1, 2nd Snub)
16 Pt Season: Maddux (18.8), Bagwell (17.6)

Two aspects of the 1994 team stand out – no other season featured two players to reach 17+ FBHOF points, and this was one hell of an outfield. The outfielders collectively rank second, behind only the 1981 team which featured four players with 14 or more points. Three players reached 14 this year – Albert Belle (36 HR, .357 AVG, 101 RBI), Ken Griffey Jr (40 HR), and Barry Bonds (37 HR, 29 SB). Keeping in mind that nearly 30% of the season was lost due to the strike, these numbers are impressive.

The best offensive player of the season was Jeff Bagwell. He batted .368 with 104 R, 39 HR, 116 RBI, and 15 SB en route to 17.6 FBHOF points – 5th best all time and tops among first basemen. It was his first year as an all star and he would eventually be elected to three more All-Star squads.

The premier player of 1994, regardless of position, was Greg Maddux who turned in the best season in fantasy history, recording 18.8 points. Using funny math and adding back the missing 30% of the season due to the strike, we arrive at a line of 21 W, 0.90 WHIP, 1.56 ERA, and 203 K. Complete domination.

Unlike the great seasons of Pedro Martinez and Randy Johnson that would soon be upon the fantasy community, Maddux was the only pitcher of his time to be 50% better than his closest competition. This is reflected in the FBHOF scoring system. The table below depicts the elite pitching seasons of the fantasy era along with the scoring of the next best pitcher of the year:

Maddux had no equals.  Later in the 1990s, it was a constant battle between Maddux, Randy Johnson, and Pedro Martinez.  In 1994 Maddux stood alone atop the pitching community.

Several new All-Stars of 1994 would go on to have great careers: Ivan Rodriguez (6 ASP), Trevor Hoffman (5 ASP), Craig Biggio (4 ASP), and Dante Bichette (3 ASP).  Three 3-time all stars made their last appearance this year as well – Carlos Baerga, Doug Drabek, and Matt Williams.

In one of the biggest mistakes in baseball history, the 1994 World Series was canceled due to labor strife.

Positional Ranking Among the 28 Teams
C: 15th
IF: 25th
OF: 2nd
SP: 10th
RP: 28th
Overall: 17th

The Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame (in conjunction with Razzball.com) is a new website dedicated to recognizing the accomplishments of Major League ballplayers during the “fantasy era” (1980-present). The greatest of these players will be elected to the Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame.

The catchers are enshrined today, a position that is the weakest in the history of fantasy baseball.

I have dreaded writing this article for about six weeks now.  By my methodology only one catcher since 1980 deserves induction into the Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame and I haven’t been able to convince myself I am being too harsh.  If we went position by position we find the following number of inductees:

15 – Outfield
6 – First Base
3 – Second Base
3 – Third Base
2 – Shortstop
1 – Catcher

This actually makes a bit of sense.  Outfielders take 5 of 14 offensive roster slots in standard leagues, and as we have seen first basemen have perennially been the power house position.  Further, if only two shortstops are worthy of enshrinement, maybe one catcher is too.

And isn’t this what fantasy baseball is mostly about?  The debate on positional scarcity is still around, and for those not familiar with it, it basically states that owners should put a premium on good players at weak positions.  I agree to a degree, but still would never draft a catcher first, no matter how much better he is than his peers.  In truth, whenever there are weak positions drafted first (See Hanley Ramirez, circa 2008) it’s almost entirely because their statistics back it up.  Ramirez could hit 35 HR and steal 60 bases while batting .300.  That’s elite for a shortstop, first basemen, or outfielder.

This same phenomenon was seen with catchers.  A few years ago the trend seemed to move towards drafting catchers early – Joe Mauer and Brian McCann were sometimes taken in Round 2. While this may have worked for a single season, in terms of career value, it’s a bust. McCann was ranked 89th last year, Mauer 107th.  Catcher is a demanding position, and while there have certainly been instances of greatness over the course of a single season, and perhaps greatness enough to demand a spot high draft pick – the excellence required for FBHOF induction just hasn’t proved sustainable at the catcher position.

To be clear on my methodology, I do take positional scarcity into consideration.  Each FBHOF score is calculated by first looking at the player among the entire batting pool (or pitcher pool) and then only against a player peers who were eligible at the same position.  The two scores are then weighted – 60% for the straight score and the remaining a product of the positional score.  This is nothing to sneeze at, as 40% of the players score is solely a function of how good he is at a position.

With this out of the way, we are still left searching for recurring brilliance.  You likely already realize that Mike Piazza is the lone inductee.  And why is this?  Because his batting line reads like that of any other inducted player.  His FBHOF points by year are 15.2, 12.6, 11.5, 11.4, 10.8 giving him 61.4 peak score.  This is 27th best among batters and ahead of three fellow Hall of Famer’s – Cal Ripken, Craig Biggio, and Frank Thomas.

We’ll get back to Piazza’s accomplishments in a moment. First, I wanted to finish the answer as to why only one catcher.  Before I answer, ask yourself the following question – does a player have to have five great seasons to be considered for the Hall of Fame?  My answer is a resounding yes.  Five years in awfully short period of time, and no Baseball Hall of Famer is ever inducted based upon such a short career.  If we are focusing on such a short time at the FBHOF, those years had better be great.  From what we have seen since we started inductions in late April, not one inductee has had less than five great seasons.  With that said, here are the 5th best seasons for each of the Top 5 Catchers (as determined by FBHOF score):

This illustrates two things to me.  First, Piazza was really, really good if that was his 5th best season.  Second, the rest of those scores don’t impress me all that much (though keep in mind 1981 was a shortened season).  Over the past 20 years there most certainly have been numerous ‘Hall of Fame seasons’, but not careers:

In 1985 Carlton Fisk hit 37 home runs, driving in 107 runners and scoring 85 himself.  He even stole 17 bases.  But he batted .238 and averaged just 74 R and 71 RBI in his next three best years.

We all have love Darren Daulton’s 1992 season right?  .270 AVG, 80 R, 27 HR, 109 RBI, and 11 SB in low offense year, marks good enough for 7th overall.  But you could hardly consider the rest of his career fantasy worthy – an average of 63 R, 70 RB, and a .265 BA over his remaining 4 best years.

Javy Lopez sure was impressive in 1998 and 2003-2004, hitting 100 HR and 301 RBI while maintaining a .310 batting average.  But he was ranked just 84th and 85th in years four and five.

One more for you – Jorge Posada.  He’s likely going to the Baseball Hall of Fame at this rate but outside of last season his average for his “next best 4 years” is .275 / 80 / 25 / 94 / 2, with a rank 52nd overall and 4th among catchers.  Do I want him on my fantasy team?  Yes, of course.  Is he going to make or break my season?  No, and he therefore passes the red face test as to whether or not he’s HOF worthy.

Finally, the case of Piazza proves that it is possible to make the FBHOF as a catcher.  Love him or loathe him, he could hit with the best of them.   His 5 best years:

What truly separates Piazza from his catcher brethren, and every other baseball player of the fantasy era for that matter, is the fact he had more seasons ranked number 1 at his position than any other.   From 1993 to 2002 he finished 1st at catcher nine times – more than Alex Rodriguez (8), Albert Pujols (6), Paul Molitor (5), Ryne Sandberg (5), Cal Ripken (4), or Barry Bonds (3).  This is an incredible accomplishment.

Note:  Earlier I mentioned positional scarcity score.  Thought it might be interesting to list the top 5 seasons at each position based solely on positional scarcity: