Fantasy Baseball Advice

Pretty much everything I told you in the beginning of the year about trusting your big guns and not trusting the wayward sons goes out the window in September.  If you’re battling for pitching points, you need to take some chances I wouldn’t necessarily take in April, or really even August.  Suddenly, Brian Duensing gets his own post and Freddy Garcia doesn’t look like Freddy Garcia, but looks like a guy who’s facing the Mariners.  It’s fantasy baseball in September and the rules were made to be broken, ya’ll.  So I’ve assembled two or three starters from Tuesday, the new Humpday, until this Sunday that you could take a chance on depending on how bad your pitching shituation is.  I’m not completely proud of all of these guys, but their mommas are (even Momma Padilla).  Anyway, here’s some borderline starters for fantasy baseball late season:

Tuesday, September 15th

Freddy Garcia – Garcia is the new blech in most cases, but he’s had four straight decent enough starts and I’d throw him vs. the Mariners in Seattle.

Robinson Tejada – Has 69 Ks in 53 1/3 innings.  Goes vs. the Tigers, who he just beat.  It’s risky because I don’t trust the 2nd time being the charm.  Teams figure a guy out usually, but he could give you some cheap Ks.

Wade LeBlanc – Has two solid back-to-back starts and he faces a K-razy offense (Diamondbacks) in Petco.

Wednesday, September 16th

Doug Davis – Has a 1.83 ERA in 19 2/3 innings vs. the Padres and hasn’t given up one earned run in Petco in two years.

Ryan Rowland-Smith – Has four straight solid starts and a serial killer name.

Hiroki Kuroda – Hasn’t had an embarrassing start since July 8th and he gets the Pirates.

Thursday, September 17th

Justin Masterson – vs. the A’s and I wouldn’t start him here unless you’re in absolute dire straits, Mark Knopfler.

Friday, September 18th

Brian Duensing – You’d think I really liked him with the amount I’m talking about him, but he’s worth a flier for a start or two.

Vicente Padilla – He actually just shut out the Giants, which scares me more than it instills confidence, but it’s still a decent match-up.

Saturday, September 19th

Brett Tomko – Shoot me now for suggesting Tomko.

Jason Hammel – Has an ERA around 3 away from Coors and he gets the swing happy Diamondbacks.  This is still a risky start because Chase is a hitters park.

Sunday, September 20th

Paul Maholm – It’s not as great to face the Padres away from Petco, but it’s not that bad either.

Carl Pavano – Gets the Tigers on Sunday and has absolutely owned them this year.  In over 30 innings, he has a 1.48 ERA and 4 wins.  And, just think, you can tell your lady friend you had the cojones to start Pavano.

Aroldis Chapman — A-rold! — defected yesterday.  I defect every morning after I eat my bran cereal. No, random italicized voice, defected.  As in, he gave the Cuban national team the old switcheroo.  He snuck out of a Rotterdam hotel where the team was staying this week.  The coach said he checked on him and saw him sleeping.  What he actually saw was a mannequin shifting in bed from a wire attached to the bedroom door that was strung over a closet door with a trophy attached.  For his escape, Aroldis wishes to thank Ferris Bueller.  So why do you care?  He’s the best lefty in the world and he can throw 100 MPH.  Keepers, clean your ears, cause there’s a new Strasburg in town.  Though no one’s sure what town that is.  Deep keepers should keep an eye out for when he’s added.  Probably a year away, but it depends on the team that signs him.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Alexei Ramirez – Sticking with the Cuban theme, good news for Alexei as his finger’s X-rays revealed no fracture.  He should return soon.  Not soon enough in a league where I’m rocking Everth Cabrera.  Steal, son.  You’re fast.

Kevin Correia – He made me sob yesterday.  Big, mucousy running into my ’stache tears.  Wasn’t pretty, kinda like Correia’s start yesterday.  Five innings and six earned runs.  Belch!  Even more disappointing is the Walks — 3 of them.  One walk to Wandy.  Correia!!!  Okay, Correia wasn’t terrific, obviously.  But he should’ve got out of the first inning without any damage done.  Maybe one run there.  The homer to Geoff Blum was unforgivable.  But let’s not forget — this was his worst start of the year after 16 of them.  Also, it tied for the most walks he had given up all year.  Hopefully he remembers he’s a usable 5th starter.  I pardon you, Correia.

Joey Votto – 4-for-6, 1 RBI, 15-for-38 since he’s returned.  Member last month when I sat behind you at your computer and kept buzzing you with an electrical current every time you wanted to trade him?  Yeah, I just got my electric bill.

Jeff Baker – Traded to the Cubs for Al Alburquerque.  Al Alburquerque?  Was he named during that game where you bounce the ball?  Hi, my name is Al.  I live in Albuquerque.  I like apples.  If Baker gets a full-time job, he’ll be worth a spot at MI for his pop.  He may get an extended look immediately for the injured Miles.  Though I’d take a wait and see approach, except in NL-Only leagues.

Mark Reynolds – Number 22 for Mini-Donkey.  Get on the donkey, donkey…Mini-donkey!

Doug Davis – 7 IP, 1 ER.  Has a 3.15 ERA and is 3-8.  Is there a Diamondback rule that they only score for Brandon Webb?  It’s like 2004 redux for Davis when he went 12-12 with a 3.39 ERA.

Aaron Harang – 7 IP, 2 ER, 8 Ks.  Last year when you owned Harang, it was like he put a sweaty glass down on your Reggie Jackson rookie card while he made a sex tape with your ex-wife.  This year he’s paying for your kids’ private school education.  Cha-ching!

Chad Qualls – 1 1/3 IP, 1 ER and the blown save.  Might still be dealing with forearm issues.  Or he’s dealing with being sucky in the suckhole.  Either way, it’s not good.

Rafael Soriano – Save yesterday.  I know no one cares about Rafael Soriano, but I’ve had him on one team all year so allow me to talk about him for un momento.  Doode is smoking with nitrous.  1.19 ERA, .88 WHIP, 49 Ks in 37 2/3 IP and 7 saves.  Are you kidding me?!  Grey hearts Soriano. (Somewhere Ryan Franklin says, “What’s a guy got to do to get some love ’round here?)

J.A. Happ – 7 IP, 2 ER, 5 Ks.  I have two problems with Happsterdam.  1) His home park and 2) He’s a rookie.  It worries me.  You do what you do.

Russell Branyan – HR yesterday.  Lately, he’s seemed more like the Branyan we’re used to as he goes one-for-four with a homer here and there.  Well, you shouldn’t have expected a .300+ average from him anyway.

CC Sabathia – 5 2/3 IP, 6 ER.  Bad year for ace pitchers.  Peavy, Webb, Hamels, CC, Johan… Maybe Cueto, Wandy, Edwin Jackson, and Greinke are the new breed.  (You like how I snuck the 30-year-old Wandy in there, huh?)

Mark Buehrle – 8 1/3 IP, 1 ER.  3.09 ERA on the year.  I always end up with this guy on at least one team, but, alas, not this year.

Derrek Lee – 2 HRs, 7 RBIs. Your Buddy Lee was almost the title for today’s roundup.  But I decided against it cause Lee bores me.  Is he back?  I don’t think he ever went anywhere.  He just stopped stealing bases.  He can hit 4-6 homers/month and bat .300.  So you’re looking at a 75/25/85/.300 hitter.  Decent, but short of exciting.

Bobby Abreu – 2 HRs as he finally recovered from the 2005 Home Run Derby.  Abreu’s good for another 10 homers the rest of the way.  Don’t expect more.

Garrett Jones – HR yesterday.  He’ll be in this afternoon’s Buy/Sell.  You can hardly wait!  Yes, you can.  No?  How about yes?  Ah, I thought so.  Persuasion ain’t just a Jane Austen novel!

Mets – Turns out they were staying at the same hotel in Pittsburgh as a Furries convention.  It’s fitting because the Mets have been screwing the pooch.

Fernando Tatis – 3-for-4, 4 Runs, 2 RBIs and a homer.  Last night, his Mom must’ve been a praying Tatis.

Okay, take off your aluminum foil cap you use to get better TV reception and put on your thinking cap because we’re going into The Land of Sabermetrics with your host, me.  Today we’re going to look at FIP.  Stands for Fielding Independent Pitching.  It’s basically ERA without those pesky fielders helping or hurting you.  It’s a pure ERA.  It’s like when you go to the Supercuts and then you don’t want to shower because you’ll never get your hair styled again like Jeffrey does it.  It’s your hair right after Jeffrey styles it and before you wash it.  That’s FIP.  Okay, so let’s take a Exhibit A pitcher who has an ERA of 2.75 but his FIP is a 6.75.  A -4.00 difference.  That means he’s been very lucky and there’s a good chance his ERA is going to go way up.  So here’s a list of pitchers with the biggest difference between their actual ERAs and their FIPs. (If your guy’s on the list, it’s not a great sign.)

Jair Jurrjens – -2.00 difference.  Meesa tinks Jar-Jar’s going to get in big trouble.

Doug Davis – -1.99.  No surprise here (I hope).  He’s not nearly as good as he’s been and he’s only sitting on a 3.25 ERA.  Here comes the youch!

Jered Weaver – -1.86.  This one surprised me.  I figured he was pitching as good as his numbers indicated, but it turns out his BABIP is low and his men left on base is high.  Maybe him and big bro might have more to talk about over the All-Star Break than their mullets.

Matt Cain – -1.83.  Upsetting for me because I have him on a lot of teams, but not completely surprising.  His walks will cut eyes out of a sheet and haunt him.

Kevin Millwood – -1.71.  You shouldn’t own him anyway outside of AL-Only leagues.

Chris Volstad – -1.70.  I knew he wasn’t this good!  Looks like the hurricane season might come early this year (<–Not sure if that makes sense, but seemed to fit.)

Joe Saunders – -1.58.  You didn’t really think he was a sub-3 ERA pitcher, did you?

Brett Myers – -1.46.  Not that surprising until you realize his ERA is already a 4.81.  That’s right, his FIP is 6.28.  Don’t wait around for the bounce back.

Johan Santana – -1.27.  But his FIP is still only 2.05.  You’d take a 2.05 ERA on the year and love it.

Tim Wakefield – -1.21.  Looks like he may get greeted with a *pinkie to mouth* knuckle sandwich.

Zach Duke – -1.10. Change is gonna come, nephew.

As Sean Connery says, “Shituation: Dire.” Rios has been the pea under your mattress. The splinter in your paw. The tighty-whitey stain that your fourth grade classmates saw when you were changing for gym and have teased you about for the rest of your life (but maybe that was just me). Alexis Rios wasn’t a random stab in the dark when I pegged him for a terrific year in 2008. I wasn’t driving through the desert, high on peyote, when a random Native American said to me, “Rios will be good this year and make sure to hit the slots at Mohegan Sun.” So it’s disappointing when Rios’s slump looks amaranthine (Word of the Day, and I’m not even sure it’s used correctly, so try to use context clues), but there has to be an end in sight, doesn’t there? Yes, I believe there is an end to his struggles. But, for the record, Rudy and I disagree on this. Rudy says he should be sold. Well, whatever. Then I’m going down with the U.S.S. Rios. Rios’s gone through months like this before and he’s come out of it. Sure, his lineup looks like it should be in the AAGPBL, but I’m buying.  Anyway, here’s some more fantasy baseball hitters and pitchers to buy and sell:

BUY

Chris Perez – Isringhausen could be done done. To define those italics. Isringhausen is too old, too tired and Chris Perez is too heffin’ good. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Izzy hang up the cleats and retire (then return in two years as the Rays closer.) But can Ryan Franklin hold off Chris Perez? About as well as Britney Spears’s kids have of staving off rehab in twelve years. I think Perez could have fifteen saves this year and excellent peripherals. He’s not a starter that is biding his time in middle relief. He was a closer in the minors. A closer with terrific numbers.

Curtis Granderson – As most of you know, I think Curtis blows. But I’m starting to think, no one likes him, so whenever everyone starts zigging, you gotta look to zag. Now don’t zag for the sake of zagging — nobody likes a willy-nilly zagger! — but if you can move Pat Burrell and Joe Saunders or someone of their ilk for Granderson, you gotta consider it.

Corey Hart – Might be too late to buy because of his recent streak. As Alexis Rios and Corey Hart prove, invest in speedy OFs with girl first names!

Joey Devine – In a couple of leagues where I had Casilla, I’ve moved to Waking Joey Devine.

Matt Garza – 3 earned runs in almost 20 innings since coming off the DL. He’s a very capable pitcher with good K numbers in the minors. The only drawback is the Twins gave him to the Rays and the Twins know pitching. Damn you, Twinkies, what do you know that I don’t?!

Bobby Crosby – If he stays healthy, he could give you 20 home runs and a belch-worthy average.

Adam Wainwright – I’m still onboard the love train. He was a mess in the first half of ’07, but in the second half, he cut his runs allowed by almost half, his home runs allowed by more than half and he showed stamina. Don’t let his last two starts get you down.

Mike Cameron – I see Krispie Young Sr. on waivers in a lot of leagues. In ESPN leagues, he’s only 20% owned. (Of course, I do believe five thousand 3rd graders draft ESPN teams then abandon them, but still.) I’m sporting Cameron on a ten team mixed league and I’m getting what I expect. For a fifth outfielder, you can do worse. On the team I have him, I’m balancing his shizzy average with Youk.

Vladimir Guerrero – So he’s as limber as Ron Kovic, this isn’t something new.

Jose Contreras – Okay, so he remembers when they called movies “talkies” — whatever, he’s solid when healthy and he’s been healthy.

Johnny Damon/Robinson Cano – I’ve beat these horses before, but I still believe.

SELL

Ben Sheets – I’ve said it before. Ben Sheets can win the Cy Young. Know what else? Hillary can win the nomination. Andy Milonakis can be funny. I can date Mila Kunis without incurring criminal charges. Now will is an entirely different matter. Will Hillary win the nomination? I suppose if whatever state Obama is in collapses into the core of the earth. Will fatty ever be funny? I suppose if he steals better jokes. Will I date Kunis? If I can get rid of Culkin, you better believe it. So will Sheets win the Cy Young? He hasn’t made it to 30 starts since ‘04. That year he had 264 Ks and 32 walks. Go ahead look at those numbers again. Yeah, they’re insane. That was coupled with a 2.70 ERA. He has pinpoint control and filthy stuff. Yeah, I’m a fan. Unfortunately, he could get injured in a pillow fight with your niece. So as much as I like him, I’m passing.

Edinson Volquez – In the comments recently someone asked about Edinson. Here’s what I said, “You see what’s happening with Cueto right now? Yeah, Volquez will be seeing him in the ‘kinda not startable’ category soon. Edinson’s a great pitcher but very, very rarely does a pitcher arrive in the majors and never hit a correction period. Could he avoid it? I suppose, but you don’t bet on the least likely thing to happen. You’re playing with house money right now and you need to cash out and move on.” Admit it, I take your breath away like Dr. Kevorkian.

Adrian Gonzalez – Don’t fall in love with his first half numbers. Let’s put it this way, he says to Teixeira, “You complete me.” Now don’t sell him for Luis Hernandez and a bottle of Valtrex and say, “Look, Grey, I did good!”

Jon Garland – Don’t make the same mistake The Town That Bobby Grich Built Angels made. He’s not a great pitcher.

Jon Lester/Doug Davis – As Hank said in the comments the other day, “Damn, cancer really is the new AIDS. Free plane tickets, no-hitters, and sympathy rotation spots. ‘What kind of cancer do you have? The All-Over kind.’” Meanwhile, Casey Kotchman writes in his journal, “Mono is not good enough!”

Kevin Youkilis – Youuuuuuuuuk is not a 2nd half hitter.

Joe Saunders – Rudy said this the other day in the comments, “Saunders is projected as a low K pitcher with around 5.00 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. His 3.6 K/9 IP and 1.6 K/BB ratios are AWFUL. The only real change from his performance last year is that he’s getting lucky with balls that are in play – it’s .240 instead of an expected .300.” And that’s me quoting Rudy!

Billy Butler – I’m gonna pull a Willie Randolph and say it’s racist if people still have Butler on their team. If he were black or Isiah Thomas or Herm Edwards, he would not be on your team. And that’s egregious! So let’s all get along and drop Butler. Now doesn’t that feel good?

Today, Verlander is buying the next round of Camels for Leyland and his fantasy baseball owners. If it wasn’t for a great catch by Joyce and Big Papi swinging on 3-0, Youk’s home run would’ve been of the grand slam variety. As I told a frequent commenter who lurks off the homepage, “Everything on (Verlander’s) charts is wrong. His walks up, fly balls up (metaphorically and literally), BABIP (showing he’s not just getting unlucky), etc. I’m worried, frankly. I would not trade for him, but I also don’t think you can trade him away. His value is too low.” What a pickle! So what do you do with Verlander? Well, you have to start sending out feelers to see what he can garner in a trade. If offers come back for Renteria and Sherrill, you pass and hope Verlander steps his game up. If you get offered Votto, you have to seriously consider it. Otherwise, you and Leyland may be talking with a tracheotomy soon. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday:

Brett Myers – I’m officially worried about Myers. Maybe moving him to the bullpen last year wasn’t such a great idea (not that anyone besides Charlie Manual’s closest family actually thought it ever was a good idea). I wouldn’t drop him, but you can’t start him at this point.

Jo-Jo Reyes – I saw nothing that would tell me to drop him. Then again, I didn’t see much because he was pulled with a blister. No word if he misses his next start.

Carlos Villanueva – Two runs in the first should’ve been unearned. Bill Hall pulled a Ryan Braun and let a Hanley grounder get past him. Bad official scorer, bad. Then in the third inning, Braun pulled a Braun and slid for a blop single and turned into a double. Then Treanor hits the foul pole with a three run homer. I know, all of this is little consolation, but Villanueva wasn’t as bad as the line. On a separate but related note, I’m actually really annoyed with the Brewers in general. Okay, whether you asked or not…

Joe Dillon – Is Ned Yost stupid? Seriously, just because he sits Fielder he has to bat Dillon in Prince’s spot in the lineup? This might be the dumbest thing I’ve ever seen (and I’ve seen some dumb things, remember I watch reality TV).  I mean, Dillon’s not an awful player, but Yost bats him third? Why not put names into a hat? This would be reason enough for me to fire a manager. I don’t even like Braun and I think it’s absolutely whatupid (whack/stupid). People in Milwaukee, put down your frozen custard and rise up! Dillon could go 4-for-3 (if that were possible) with six home runs and 30 RBIs in this game alone and it would be whatupid. /rant

Ryan Braun – .257 after an 0-for-5. Didn’t like him coming into the year, still don’t like him. And I like the Brewers. I like their announcers. I like Milwaukee. Great city. Good people. Okay, I’m ranting again, but this is really frustrating me. If I were the type to do emoticons, and if I knew the emoticon for frustrated, I would do it. Argh.

Edwin Jackson – I like Jackson to a certain extent. He was a big name prospect that floundered in the Dodgers organization for a while. He’s been pretty uneven this year, so unless your leagues deep I’d be careful.

Doug Davis – He’s been cleared to begin rehab. Good for Doug. Stay away in fantasy baseball.

Ryan Ludwick – Vincent aka The Queen’s Assassin hit two home runs yesterday. Whatever, I guess you don’t need that on your team. Now I must kill… the Queen.

Dioner Navarro – Okay, so I’m the only one talking about him. That’s reason to not pick him up? Seriously, what are you people doing? Are you looking at the fact he’s only owned on 2% of all teams and saying, “Grey’s effin’ bonkers. Nobody wants this guy. I’m grabbing Pudge.”  Is it because you don’t know how to pronounce his first name? Dioner (for lack of any nickname) hit a grand slam yesterday.

Shane Victorino – Last five games, batting .363, 8 runs, 2 steals. Werth, one start and that was against a lefty, which makes sense.

Nick Markakis – I’m going to touch on this in the next week or so, but in ESPN’s ‘new’ rankings they’ve moved both Markakis and Rios up to 21 and 23 respectively. Maybe they’ve crawled out of their caves over there in Bristol, Conn.

Miguel Tejada – I’ll be the first one to admit that I’m really hard on guys that are suspected of steroids, but Tejada I love. I can’t give you a reason why. I just thought you needed to know that.

Wilfredo Ledezma – He looked fine, until he was pulled after 63 pitches. The Braves announcers said he might have hurt himself going after a popup. (The Padres didn’t broadcast the game. Word on the street is they’re contemplating not showing the Padres when they’re batting either.) I couldn’t get confirmation on this injury, so, ya know, stay tuned. Or not. You do what you do.

Troy Percival – The most surprising thing to me is that he’s still the closer. Okay, the most surprising thing is these were his first earned runs all year.

Eugenio Velez – He’s 1 for his last 19 with two steals. He could end the year with more steals than hits. He could go 30/30. Thirty hits, thirty steals. On any other team, he’s platooning with Willie Mays Hayes.