Fantasy Baseball Advice

Because Casey Kotchman is most noteworthy (in my eyes) for having the longest known case of mononucleosis, it makes sense he’d be considered a sleeper.  Only, not necessarily, a fantasy baseball sleeper.  More like a Prince Valium one.  After the trade to the Braves last year, Casey Kotchman hit 2/20/.237.  “Write him off as a once interesting prospect that never reached his potential,” says some random crotchety old baseball scout.  I hear ya, random old baseball crotchety scout, but I find something making me keep come back to him.  Sorta like my man-wood for Alex J. Gordon.  Maybe I can’t let a bad thing die.  This would explain every previous relationship that I’ve ever been in prior to the current one.  So what is it that excites me about Casey Kotchman in 2009 fantasy baseball?

In 373 ABs for the Angels last year, Kotchman hit 12/54/.287 before taking a dump with the Tomahawks.  Now whether his numbers plunged with the Braves because he wasn’t happy with the trade or because he wasn’t familiar with the NL pitchers, I’m not sure.  For someone who lost nine months of his life to a kissing disease that high schoolers rebound from after two weeks, anything is possible.  Either way, he is more of the hitter we saw pre-All-Star Break with the Angels than he was on the Braves.  He had a .325 average in the minors with Jason Kendall-esque power.  Kotchman pounds the ball into the ground way too much to be any sort of real power threat. (And he doesn’t have the speed to make all of those grounders worthwhile.)  I’d put Kotchman’s 2009 projections being near 70/16/85/.285/2.  Numbers that make him very comparable to James Loney or other first baseman sleeper Kendry Morales.  I know, it’s not a ringing endorsement, but considering Loney is near the top 20 for 1st basemen and Kotchman is being drafted with the likes of Kevin Millar and Lyle Overbay, Kotchman has sleeper potential.  So, let’s qualify how excited I am about Casey Kotchman.  Not really that excited.  If Mark Grace and Sean Casey had a baby, it’d look like Casey Kotchman.  How’s that for the least enthusiastic sleeper post ever?  You’re welcome!

We’ve gone over whether or not you should grab a starter early, Rudy’s fantasy baseball strategy says sure, why not?  My fantasy baseball strategy says not so much.  Whichever strategy you subscribe to, you’re still going to need some late round value.  The top 20, 40, 60 and 80 starters for 2009 fantasy baseball can be found under the 2009 fantasy baseball rankings.  As I used to call Cliff Notes in college, this is a companion piece.  If you click on some of the player’s names, you’ll see whole posts dedicated to these doodes with 2009 fantasy baseball projections.  Anyway, here’s some starters to target for 2009 fantasy baseball:

Manny Parra – I hesitated to put Kershaw on this list because of his walks, but the same could be said about Parra, and, in a roundabout way, I just did.  The deciding factor was Kershaw is a bit more expensive at drafts than Parra.

Aaron Heilman – If he gets the 5th starter job or the 6th starter job and then Harden gets injured, Heilman’s a guy to keep an eye on.  Why aren’t you looking at me when I talk to you? I’ve got an eye on Heilman, woman!

Wandy Rodriguez – Imagine 50 Cent in your fantasy league, “I’ll take you to the Wandy shop, his road starts will make you drop…” Yes, I heard Rodriguez strained his left intercostal muscle (isn’t that the road that runs along the Florida coast?), but it’s too early for me to jump off the Wand-wagon.

Chris Young – After he returned from having his face rearranged by a Pujols liner, he had a 2.38 ERA in September.

John Maine – I know what you’re thinking when you see Maine on this list.  You’re thinking I’m trying to get you to fall for the ol’ banana-in-the-tailpipe.  You have to ignore a lot of last season for Maine, he was pitching injured.  If healthy, he could be a strong #3 fantasy starter.

John Danks – Doesn’t seem like he’s getting the pub of some guys, but he should be.  One of the few AL starters I’m targeting late.

Randy Johnson – He’s not the maverick he once was.  He might only pitch 15 – 20 starts, but has shown he can be effective for those 15 – 20 starts.

Jeremy Guthrie – The other AL starter.  I’ve talked about JG so much, I might need a Guthrie jersey.  Someone brought up something in the comments the other day (Not sure what post or what comment it was.  We get a lot of comments, ya’ll.)  about Guthrie’s FIP and BABIP.  It’s true, Guthrie may regress a little this year.  I have him projected for 12-10/3.90/1.25/130 in 2009.  Those are not #2 starter numbers.  Again, for those reading over your shoulder, do not think you’re snagging a #2 starter in the last rounds.   I talk a lot about Guthrie, but he’s just a solid endgame guy in deep leagues.

Aaron Cook – Almost as boring as his name.  Easily the most unexciting name on this list.  Also, one of the steadiest names on the list.  Those in H2H leagues want consistent, Cook can provide it.   In a time when we seem to be losing everything, our economy, our homes, our jobs, it’s up to us to stand up and be counted, make our frustrated voices heard.  For those who want reliability and street cleaning twice a week, vote Aaron Cook.

Josh Johnson – A good K rate and his name almost sounds like the porn star, Gosh Johnson.

Even if you draft one or two outfielders in the top 100 (which you should), you’ll still need to identify some late bargains.   The top 20, 40, 60 and 80 outfielders for 2009 fantasy baseball can be found under the 2009 fantasy baseball rankings.  This is by no means all the outfielders I’d draft for one of my teams.  This is a list of guys that will go late and could provide some healthy returns.  Where applicable, click on the players name to read more about them or to see their 2009 projections.  Anyway, here’s some outfielders to target for 2009 fantasy baseball:

Colby Rasmus – Razzle-Dazzle, baby.  Razzle.  Dazzle.

Nelson Cruz – He’s never hit well in the majors for longer than a month.  He’s had lots of opportunities.  Might be the Ludwick pick of the draft or might be on waivers by the 2nd week in April.  Recognize!  Or don’t.  These are your decisions.

Cameron Maybin – Could be a cheap Victorino without the average.  Not a cheap Victorian, i.e. Is she using rat tails to tie up her bodice? Then again, perhaps Maybin is Carlos Lee with less power, more speed and no average.  Or he’s just Mike Cameron.

Fred Lewis – Giants hit him third in a spring training game.  Beans don’t burn on the grill!

Ryan Spilborghs – If he’s the starter then he deserves a spot on NL-Only teams, but I really wish he’d break something to open the door for Carlos Gonzalez, Matt Murton, Ian Stewart or…

Dexter Fowler – Should be the Rockies center fielder.  Will he?  Doubtful, but in keeper leagues, you should own him leaving your draft.

Franklin Gutierrez – The Big FraGu is going to get his chance to put up 15/15 numbers.

Delmon Young – It’s still very early in spring training and I try not to pay too much attention just yet to who’s hitting well, but Young is hitting well.

Shin-Soo Choo – Get on the Shin-Soo Choo train.

Elijah Dukes -  As long as he doesn’t flip out and prove Carl Jung right about aptronyms, you’ll be fine.  For what it’s worth, Carl Jung was never very good at fantasy baseball.

Justin Upton – I put him last because I want to highlight him.  Justin Upton could take the biggest jump of anyone on this list.  He has the potential to be a number two outfielder while being drafted as a four or a five.  His ceiling is, “Superstar.”

I suggest you grab a 3rd baseman before leaving the top 100, but that’s not always possible.  So, if you miss out on one,  this list is guys that can be had later in your drafts.  Look at this as a supplement to the top 20 3rd basemen of 2009 fantasy baseball.  Where applicable, click on the players name to read more about them or to see their 2009 projections.  Anyway, here’s some 3rd basemen to target for 2009 fantasy baseball:

Ryan Zimmerman -  “For today’s game of Jew or Not a Jew… Ryan Zimmerman.”

Pablo Sandoval – He’s not fat, he’s jolly.  I still prefer him more as a catcher, but in deep leagues I could see the case made for Sandoval as a 3rd baseman, especially with the loss of A-Rod.

Alex Gordon – Hey, it’s everyone’s favorite fantasy baseball blogger’s perennial sleeper.

Mark Reynolds – Capable of 30 HRs and 10 steals.  I will call you bizarro, low average, swing-happy David Wright.

Kevin Kouzmanoff – If only he didn’t play his home games in Petco… To paraphrase Bubb Rubb, “Woooooo…”

Joe Mather – Troy Glaus’s replacement until Glaus returns (read: May or much later).  CHONE projects Mather for 19 HRs and 6 steals with a .253 average, but that’s in 415 ABs.  Last year in Triple-A, Mather crushed the ball hitting 17 HRs and batting .303 in only 59 games.  Then again, that was in the offense-minded PCL.  Just looking at the numbers, Mather profiles to me like mini-Glaus.  Some pop, low average.  It wouldn’t be surprising to see him hit 25 homers and bat .240 over an entire season.  It also wouldn’t be unlikely to see Glaus stay unhealthy with his old man shoulder.  Act like you know, MC Lyte!

Is Evan Longoria a 2nd round pick?  Grey, me, I seemed to think so when I wrote up my 2009 fantasy baseball, top 20. Or did Grey, me, I get swept away with Evan Longoria like Guy Ritchie in the arms of Madonna circa 1999? Did I lose the ability to rank Evan Longoria like Guy Ritchie lost the ability to make a kickass Steadicam shot? Am I good for nothing, except taking care of Rocco and their other kid? (Speaking of spoiled brats, for my birthday I got a pair of Heely’s — Free Your Sole!  If any of youse care, I have not broken my neck. Yet.  I really need to hire an 8-year-old to teach me how to use these things. Then again, that might’ve been how Pedroia’s brother got into trouble.  But I digress.) Now I’m 2nd guessing my 2nd round pick of Evan Longoria and you’re running in to tell your Mom, “Grey’s second guessing his 2009 fantasy baseball top 20!  Is the world no longer round?!”  It’s still round, youngen.  We just need to dig a little deeper on Longoria.

First, let me say what has me looking at Longoria a lot harder.  The BBTF did a breakdown of the Rays with ZIPS projections.  They have Longoria’s projections at 78/28/91/.264/6.  Waaaaay back in January, I said Evan Longoria’s 2009 projections would be 85/30/110/.275/7.  As you can see, my projections are more optimistic.  When you, or at least when I, look at those other projections I begin to wonder if Aramis a round or two later is better value than Longoria. (If curious, I have Aramis’s projections at 105/30/115/.295 from the 2009 fantasy baseball, top 20 third basemen and ZIPS has Aramis at 84/27/100/.289/1)

Included in the BBTF charts is a player profile where it goes over the possibility of certain stats being reached by Longoria.  There’s a 33% chance of Longoria hitting .275+ (only a 7% chance of him hitting .300+).  There’s a 38% chance of him hitting 30+ HRs (actually an 8% chance of him hitting 40 HRs) and a 17% chance of 10+ steals.  So what I’m taking away from those odds and projections is Longoria’s not going to hit .300, but he has some power to spare (and a bit of speed).  Aramis has no speed, a bit less power and more average.  Also, Longoria’s younger and rising while Aramis is a few years older and apparently plateauing.  Longoria also has more risk than Aramis.

For fantasy purposes, I’ll take more home runs and steals over average every day of the week and twice on Muesday (that’s Monday after 5 and before noon on Tuesday).  So I said Evan Longoria is a late 2nd rounder and I still agree.  Phew, a restoration of F.I.G — Faith In Grey.