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Member when the Beastie Boys first came on the scene with (You Gotta) Fight for Your Right (To Party)?  Sounded like a one hit wonder at the time.  Even the goofy video seemed like a band that will come and go before Adam Curry’s hair fell.  Yeah, they ended up exceeding expectations almost immediately.  2012 was Paul Revere, Brass Monkey, She’s Crafty, Girls and even their follow-up Paul’s Boutique for Asdrubal Cabrera.  Last year, Asdrubal had 25 homers and 17 steals and got more hits than Sadaharu Oh.  That’s seven more homers than Ass-Cab’s previous career high, if you consider his previous career high 18 homers were hit over his previous four seasons and fourteen hundred and fifteen at-bats.  He’s crafty!  If you would’ve got that from Hanley you would’ve been happy as a pig in shizz.  So what’cha want from Asdrubal Cabrera for next year, and what makes him a 2012 fantasy baseball keeper?

In 2011, Asdrubal’s HR/FB ratio got a little absurd with itself.  He never broke 7% prior and last year it was 13.3%.  He did it like this.  He did it like that.  He did it with a wiffle ball bat.  Reports are saying he changed his approach a’la Zobrist.  I love how a skinny guy hits more homers than he’s ever hit before and he’s suddenly Zobrist.  Zobrist had 12 homers in only 62 games the year before he crushed 27 homers, so it wasn’t out of nowhere.  Oh, and after hitting 27 homers The Brist got chopped down to 10 homers in 151 games.  Anyway, that comparison is irrelevant.  We’re talking about Ass-Cab.  Ass-Cab isn’t a 25 homer guy.  He hit 15 homers that were deemed “Just Enough” by this site. (You’re about to lose two hours of your life after looking at that site; you’re welcome.)  Ass-Cab’s a 15 homer guy, which is potentially 20 with some luck (or 10 to 12 homers with bad luck).  He also doesn’t have blazing speed.  He’s good for around 15 steals.  His K-rate was also up last year probably because he was trying to go deep which did no favors for his average.  This sounds like a negative piece on Asdrubal.  A’la Cher from Clueless, “As-DRUBAL!”  He’s a definite keeper for 2012.  To start, he’s a shortstop.  With shortstop eligibility, you’re jockin’ Mike Aviles to my dismay.  I see his 2012 line coming in at 85/17/75/.280/17.  At shortstop, you’ll take that from White Castle to the Nile.

  1. Lance Berkman says:
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    Who cars about Cabrera…I’m kicking a** in the world series. Hey grey, still waiting for that cool down/injury?

    I’m about to be a world champion bit*hes!!!

  2. Oregon Nut Cups

    Oregon Nut Cups says:
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    So Miguel Cabrera hits more just enoughs than Asdrubal Cabrera in 2011…was all that extra weight just a suit made of vodka?

  3. royce! says:
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    He most certainly did not have as many hits as Saduhara Oh, though I’m sure he beat out Tom Thumb, Tom Cushman or tomfoolery.

    Hey [one or two] Ladies!

  4. royce! says:
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    That Mike Aviles line is classic.

  5. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Lance Berkman: Was wondering where you were.

    @Oregon Nut Cups: Ha… Yeah, but Miggy’s a lot more a 30 homer hitter than Ass-Cab.

    @royce!: Ha!

    @royce!: Thanks!

    @Steve: We’ll see you tomorrow night is what Joe Buck’s dad, Jack, said after Kirby’s homer.

  6. Wake Up says:
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    …nile…nile…nile…

  7. Wake Up says:
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    So it looks like Morse either got “Just Enough” or hit a “No Doubter,” or didn’t.

    Grandy and Kemp should be avoided because they both led their leagues in “Lucky Homers.”

    Wait, Grandy is near the top in “No Doubters” he’s good. But, Kemp got too many “Just Enoughs.” Avoid Kemp. Yeah avoid Kemp. AAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHH.

    Just me an my horsey and my quart of tears!

  8. royce! says:
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    @Wake Up: I think that the most you can do with the info from that site is compare JEs to NDs by the same player, and if someone has a high JE/HR ratio, you worry about their ability to continue hitting HR. Since I don’t think anyone has compiled JE/HR ratio, I can only browse to find players that might make my point. One such player is McGehee. His 2010 seemed to have too high a JE to HR ratio: 15/23.

    For players who hit a lot of HR, I don’t think that anyone should worry about them having a lot of JE HR. So Granderson may or may not regress next year. It’s actually surprising that he had only 10 JE out of 41 HR. Compare that to Howie Kendrick- 14 of 18 HR were JE.

  9. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Wake Up: Ha! Agree with royce! (His exclamation mark, not mine.)

  10. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
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    @Grey: I really appreciate the perspective (and reminder) of JE homers. For a guy like me who begins by projecting upside from small sample sizes, it’s a must check. Thank you!

  11. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Ah – thanks.

    Don’t see any 10-inning complete game candidates for today, though.

  12. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
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    Votto right alongside Kemp with 12 JE and just 4 ND.

  13. Wake Up says:
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    @royce!: I agree with you too. I like the JE/HR ratio.
    Grandy also had a ton of no doubters, and of course some of those ND are not even HRs in other parks.
    I guess I was just making a comment on how it’s so easy to manipulate stats to prove a point.
    Hold it now…………………..hit it!

  14. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: As with most exciting Game 6′s, I have a feeling this Game 7 is gonna be anticlimactic.

    @simply fred: Gotcha

    @Wake Up: Ha

  15. I hope the company compensates you well for having those un-pausable video advertisements on the page. Because they are really annoying. I want a refund on my membership fee!

  16. They constantly interfere with the continuous stream of porn going on in my other browser windows.

  17. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Asdrubal Bastardo: I’m able to pause any video and they have no sound. Point out the ones that aren’t like that and I’ll have them removed. There shouldn’t be sound on any of them, and should be pausable.

  18. After I bring it up, I can’t find it now haha. It only shows up sometimes. Some guy talking about some good/service that I do not want. But regardless, good piece on a fellow Asdrubal. We Asdrubals love all the pub we can get.

  19. i’m pretty sure zobrist wasn’t healthy in 2010 and it just wasn’t talked about very much. there was some talk about his back that you can find if you specifically google it. but i think it all got filed under “we’re manly jocks who don’t make excuses” since he played through it. the power came back again this year, to a degree. so that’s 3 out of 4 years he’s maintained the power gains.

    swing adjustments can work. zobrist, bautista, granderson. andres torres was my other pet swing adjustment player from last year and he cratered, but it sounds like there were other outside factors with him last year: his ADHD medication wore off and he couldn’t sleep, they were making a documentary about him, general nagging health issues… guys just have down years sometimes. look at david wright. what’s his deal. and so on.

  20. … note i’m not really trying to say that asdrubal is actually a 25-homer guy. the thing about just-enoughs is convincing, and he did a bunch of his power damage in that one early burst. i don’t think that was completely fluky – i think it was probably the swing adjustments kicking in, but before the pitchers caught on. once they see him tee off like he’s tulo for a couple weeks a little more caution is employed and he comes back down to his new level, which is higher than his old level but lower than his temporary surprise-i-have-power hot streak level. ecosystem.

  21. ChillmanCometh says:
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    Grey, I’ve got a keeper quandry.

    Ten team 5×5 league, each team keeps four players, and essentially we all start the draft in round 5 (which we call the 1st). My keepers are Tulo, CarGo, Ryan Zimmerman, and Miguel Cabrera.

    A trade proposal that has been extended to me is Halladay, Jennings and 3rd for Tulo.

    Insane to not accept this or does Tulo carry that much clout?

  22. Awesomus Maximus

    Awesomus Maximus says:
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    You know my love for the Ass Cab, so I won’t gush.

    I will mention the coincidence of you pulling out the B-Boys just a day or two after my wife mentioned she saw Ad-Rock on some cooking show. I just shook my head… remembering the days when it was cool to be a rock star, period. Now Steven Tyler is a judge on a half-assed game show, Ad-Rock is on a cooking program, David Lee Roth is a failed morning radio DJ…

    What in Zeus’ name has this generation done to cool?

  23. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
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    @Grey: So, for guys like Kemp and Votto, should we estimate that they will drift back a little since so many HR were JE, or is there some other indicator that points to this as a ‘take-off point’ where we should expect higher percentage to be ND?

  24. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
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    @simply fred: …trying to get into your head, Grey.

  25. chata says:
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    @ Grey :

    you ought to establish a base-line for which round david freeze
    SHOULD be drafted for the 2012 season .

    the way that i figure it , he’s gonna jump up 2 rounds for every hit he gets
    tonight , 3 rounds for every extra base hit , and 4 rounds for every
    home run …. on top of his already much elevated level .

  26. chata says:
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    euphemism of the night …. “left it all out there on the field” .

  27. chata says:
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    matt harrison is loosening up … and he’s looking all bug-eyed .

  28. chata says:
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    @Grey: @Asdrubal Bastardo:

    it’s the monkey.com ads that are making all the noise tonight .

  29. Steve says:
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    Game 6 – not to mention some of the stuff we’ve seen at the Rugby World Cup here – did me give pause to consider just what some of these guys are capable of doing under such suffocating pressure.

    We may curse them for going down looking with the bases loaded and we need a couple of RBI to win our weekly match-up, but credit where credit is due for some incredible stuff.

    On the other hand, I’m also reminded of a quote from Keith Miller, a famous Australian cricketer from the 1950s and 60s, who also served as a fighter pilot in WWII. When asked about a pressure situation he had faced during a game, he replied “Pressure? That wasn’t pressure. When you’ve got a Messerschmitt up your arse – THAT’S pressure.”

    Enjoy the game everyone.

  30. chata says:
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    @Steve:

    hope you have enough juice to watch the whole game .
    (i’m rooting for extra innings) .

  31. Steve says:
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    @chata: Hah! On TV so no need to drain the broadband. On the downside we have to put up with Gary Thorn and Ric Sutcliffe on ESPN…

  32. Awesomus Maximus

    Awesomus Maximus says:
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    @chata: … with multipliers for the number of Cards fans in your league.

  33. VinWins

    VinWins says:
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    @Steve: In Canada we have both broadcasts, and I will never choose the one with Tim McCarver, no matter who the other broadcasters are.

    But Sutcliffe is tough to listen to; he’s never met a play he couldn’t criticize.

  34. chata says:
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    wonder what the vegas odds are on edwin jackson hitting a
    home run in tonight’s game .

  35. Wake Up says:
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    @VinWins: Yes. Anyone but McCarver.

  36. Awesomus Maximus

    Awesomus Maximus says:
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    @Wake Up: Almost anyone. I mean, I’m not going to mute the broadcast and listen to my wife.

  37. Howard says:
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    Gary Thorne’s voice haunts me from his XBox days! Have to watch Fox.

  38. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @ChillmanCometh: I’d take it.

    @wily mo: Sounds like you’re saying around 17 homers like my projections.

    @Awesomus Maximus: Their audience got old and starting watching cooking shows. I do.

    @simply fred: Kemp’s homers could come down a little. Votto’s should go up a tad.

    @chata: Edwin’s like their best bench bat. Good bet that he’ll see an AB.

  39. Grey

    Grey says:
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    No, anyone but Scott Feldman!

  40. Terrence Mann says:
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    Who wins the logrolling competition between Berman and Napoli?

  41. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
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    @Grey: I am being selfish. Still…
    One aspect of these Keeper posts is that it gives us a window into your mind. during the season you are strapped with so many questions that the bottom line is all that we can expect. So, not looking for extrapolated answers on series night, but would like to know how you think. Not just that Kemp may come down, and Votto likely up, but also what makes you draw those conclusions? Gut? esoteric stat? watching ball? …?

    Go Cards!

  42. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @simply fred: Votto hit way too many line drives. He gets a few more in the air, he hits more homers. Good park for that to happen. Kemp is the opposite on HR/FB%. Too high, will regress a little and he’ll lose a few homers.

  43. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
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    @simply fred: May be expecting too much to explain genius!

  44. Awesomus Maximus

    Awesomus Maximus says:
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    @Grey: Next thing you know Bob Dylan will be doing a Victoria’s Secret ad. Wait… what?

    Anyone willing to call this game at 5-2? I won’t go that far, but the Rangers sure do look like a defeated club right now.

  45. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
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    @Grey: Got it! More studying for me. Thank you!! (ignore last post–at same time as yours–genius explained!)

  46. Steve says:
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    Texas ‘pen hasn’t really done its thang the last couple of nights.

  47. Awesomus Maximus

    Awesomus Maximus says:
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    @Grey: @Steve: I blame Washington, seriously. What kind of message are you sending when you give up on a Game 6 in extras to prepare for Game 7?

  48. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Awesomus Maximus: They were dead as soon as they sent out Feldman, as I commented as soon as he was put into the game. They don’t have the long man depth. They needed Wilson on short rest to start.

  49. Awesomus Maximus

    Awesomus Maximus says:
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    @Grey: Tonight, yeah. Feliz should have been used in the 10th last night, though. not saying he would have gotten the job done, but you put the best players out there and let them fail/succeed.

  50. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Awesomus Maximus: The scary thing is the Cards offense is terrible. Just a matter of guys getting hot at the right time. They benched Holliday and they still put up 6.

  51. chata says:
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    whoda thunk it ?

    congratulations … st louis cardinals .

  52. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @chata: Crazy… I would’ve put money on the Braves before them.

  53. VinWins

    VinWins says:
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    Anybody who watched the Cards the first 5 months couldn’t have thought this was possible. They had a lot of defensive games like Game 6.

    Well, except for that guy that on Sept 12 bet $250 on them to win the pennant and another $250 to win the World Series. ($375,000 total payout)

  54. chata says:
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    @Grey:

    yeah , i had the braves over the phillies .
    but , still , texas winning it all .

    kinda encourages me for my keeper leagues next year ,
    even though they’re roto and don’t have the benefit of play-offs ,
    or ‘wild’ cards .

    beautiful thing about baseball ===> there’s always “next year” .

  55. Awesomus Maximus

    Awesomus Maximus says:
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    @Grey: Seriously. The real playoffs were like fantasy H2H playoffs this year… the hot hand wins. Can’t really take anything away from STL, though. Doodes have been on a mission for two months, and the bullpen continued to step up.

  56. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @VinWins: Holy crap, someone really made that bet?

    @chata: True

    @Awesomus Maximus: I was waiting for Selig to read off the paper, “Turn over paper. Congratulations, David Freese!”

  57. chata says:
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    actually a pretty decent world series mvp presentation/speech
    by the usually bumbling selig .

  58. VinWins

    VinWins says:
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    @Grey: Apparently. Read it on a famous sports blog, including pictures of the tickets. 500 to 1 on the pennant; 999 to 1 on the Series. The Cards were 5 back of the Braves with 15 to play at the time.

  59. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @VinWins: Wow, that’s incredible.

    @Awesomus Maximus: Oofa… I thought it was by Mike at first.

    **I’m going out dressed as Lionel Joseph, pray I don’t get pulled over by an African American cop with no sense of humor.

  60. chata says:
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    i’m drafting david freese in the 1st round .

    unless he drops to the 2nd round .
    or the 3rd round .
    or
    the
    fourth
    round .

  61. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
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    @Grey: So, how to evaluate:

    PLAYER TEAM LD% HR/FB%
    Ryan Roberts ARI 24.3% 12.1%
    Alex Gordon KC 22.0% 12.6%
    Mike Trout LAA 20.7% 13.5%
    Ian Kinsler TEX 17.6% 12.5%

  62. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
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    @simply fred: As compared to these guys:

    PLAYER TEAM LD% HR/FB%
    Mike Napoli TEX 19.6% 25.4%
    Mike Stanton FLA 16.3% 24.8%
    Jose Bautista TOR 16.0% 22.5%

  63. Awesomus Maximus

    Awesomus Maximus says:
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    @Grey: I’d be more worried about a Jamaican cop with no sense of humor.

  64. The Sequential Hermaphrodite says:
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    @simply fred:

    I think that it is good to look at player’s historical rates, because if their LD% or HR/FB% are way different one year, there is a good chance it is an outlier. With Matt Kemp, his HR/FB% this year of 21.4% is way off his career of 16%, so there is a good chance he falls down to 30 HR’s or worse. Mike Napoli will likely fall from his absurd 25.4% HR/FB, but could still have a solid rate around his average at 19% and could still post 30 HR’s when he gets way more at bats next year.

  65. @Grey: yeah, no, i think your asdrubal projection is about right. i just think you’re a little too skeptical of the concept of swing adjustments

  66. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
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    @The Sequential Hermaphrodite: Thank you! I see logic. Will research targeted players to move impacted guys up/down appropriately.

    How do you evaluate a guy like Kinsler? both his LD% and HR/FB appear low, but in line with his career. Yet, he hit a significant number of HR. Just means that he flies out a lot?

  67. SwaggerJackers says:
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    David Freese is going to be so overrated next season. There is no way I’ll be drafting him where he’ll go. I’m curious where Allen Craig will go.

  68. chata says:
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    mcgwire gets a world series ring ??

    his 1st legitimate one .

  69. The Sequential Hermaphrodite says:
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    @simply fred:

    Think about it this way.. a player’s HR total is pretty much a function of their FB% and the percentage of those fly balls that go for HR’s (HR/FB%).. So with Kinsler, his FB% was higher than normal this year and his HR/FB% is pretty variable with no clear trends and was a career high in 2011.. Both could go down closer to his averages and his HR total would decrease. Also, the 155 games he played this year was the most he has ever played in a season, and I wouldn’t expect a repeat in that, because he always seems to get stupid injuries and land on the DL.. So those are 3 factors that would cause a decrease in his HR total, and I wouldn’t expect a repeat of 32 HR’s. 24 is a much more realistic number.

    However, Kinsler is still a great guy to have on your team, because he will keep on stealing plenty of bases and his average could easily go up.

  70. Steve says:
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    @Grey: How are things at the Haile Selassie Institute today?

  71. chata says:
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    @Grey:

    i figured it out , or at least i have a theory .
    you don’t really live in california .
    you live in louisiana …… which would account for all of your
    “flights” to florida and to austin .
    you guys have a bus running through there about every couple
    of weeks , don’t you ?

  72. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Haile Selassie Pavilion, mon! Good times last night, some people even guessed my costume without me saying who it was. Tonight is round 2.

    @chata: So you think Lousiana is the LA I’m always talking about? Nope…

  73. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Oops. Sad trombone.

    I shall play some Yron Like A Lyon In Zyon in your honor.

    Shabba!

  74. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Ha, one person asked if I was Shabba.

  75. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
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    @The Sequential Hermaphrodite: Well-stated. I APPRECIATE your response! Think I won’t take the risk on Kinsler.

  76. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @simply fred: You should, for the right price.

    @VinWins: The sausages are surrounding him and a guy in black face…. Yes!

  77. VinWins

    VinWins says:
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    @Grey: Ha!

  78. Steve says:
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    @VinWins: @Grey: I can’t decide if that picture represents everything that is wrong with America – or everything that is right with it (emoticon)

  79. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Everything right, definitely!

  80. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Have you removed the blackface in between ‘engagements’ or are you running with it all weekend?

  81. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Ha… No, I’m done with it forever. Good times though. The people who actually got the joke loved it, which I enjoy. I enjoy obscure, if you can’t tell from reading Razzball for the last four years.

  82. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
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    @Grey: I once fashioned a fake penis (that looked pretty darn realistic) and exhibited it at the town hall halloween party. The people that had seen There’s Something About Mary guffawed. Those that hadn’t seen the movie had me deported from the premises–as they shielded their children from “that depraved man.” :-)

  83. chata says:
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    @Grey:

    super chefs (iron chef elimination) … always liked this
    michael chiarello …. ok , maybe a bit too much emphasis on wine …
    but , i do think that , sooner or later , he’s going to tell a judge off ,
    and that will be his downfall .

  84. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @simply fred: Yikes!

    @chata: Haven’t watched the first episode yet, will tomorrow night.

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