Juan Pierre – 2009 HR Prediction
April 01, 2009
Category: Rudy Gamble, Y to Z
Juan Pierre is like a piece of paper. You fold his ABs in half but it just makes him twice as strong. People scoffed last year when I boldly kept my HR projection for Juan Pierre roughly the same (0.5 from 0.6) despite seeing his projected ABs go from 615 to 350.
Let’s see what happened:
Rudy Gamble’s pre-season projections:
350 AB, 0.5 HR, 24 RBI
Juan Pierre’s actual stats:
375 AB, 1 HR, 28 RBI
Yes, Juan Pierre hit the HR. Thanks to a 2-run blast on September 15th against a Pirate hurler named Marino Salas to ‘deep RF’.
Pierre increased his HR output by #DIV/0!% vs. 2007 despite a 44% decrease in ABs from 2007. I’ve looked at the stats for tons of power hitters and no one has been able to increase HRs by that type of percentage even when they increased AB from the previous season.
So what is on tap for 2009? Well, I have Pierre projected for 280 ABs which is about a 20% drop from 2008. But I’m going to project him for a Herculean 1.3 HRs. That’s a 30% increase vs. his 2008 actuals and 160% over my 2008 projection.
I’m doubling down on you, Juan. Don’t let me down!
Tags: Juan Pierre
April 1st, 2009 at 12:28 pm
You can’t get this kind of insight from ESPN or CBS. You guys should double your subscription costs.
April 1st, 2009 at 12:31 pm
Never trust a player with two first names
April 1st, 2009 at 12:49 pm
Just imagine the sort of numbers Pierre woulda put up in the steroid era… wait…
April 1st, 2009 at 1:25 pm
I project that somebody, somewhere, will have their fantasy season ruined by that home run.
April 1st, 2009 at 1:48 pm
@Steve: 1200 comments, Steve? Well done, sir.
April 1st, 2009 at 1:51 pm
@IowaCubs: Thank you. Let’s not count how many of those relate to fantasy baseball though, shall we?
April 1st, 2009 at 2:03 pm
@Rudy: This sudden increase in power is alarming! Should I consider trading him in the Razzball league?
April 1st, 2009 at 4:26 pm
@Doug Ault: Especially when both of them are incredibly gay
April 1st, 2009 at 4:39 pm
Juan is exploring other employment options
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vl0dqWhzU6k
April 1st, 2009 at 6:28 pm
Did he just say Wiggly Field?
April 1st, 2009 at 9:36 pm
I thought about picking up Pierre in my 8-team mixed league earlier today, but this seals it. Added.
April 2nd, 2009 at 1:02 am
My league has an award that you win if Pierre hits a home run on one of your pitchers. I’m pushing for a 2 win or save deduction if it happens in addition to the award.
April 2nd, 2009 at 8:09 am
The spreadsheet formula for percentage change in HRs is flawed because you can’t divide by zero, I presume.
@johnwhorfin: yes. you presume correctly.
April 2nd, 2009 at 9:39 pm
As a person who always goes to BP and stands in the outfield hoping to elbow a disease-ridden kid probably Making A Wish out of the way in order to catch a ball, I actually caught my first BP home run ball off a line drive shot by Pierre last summer.
Unfortunately, all the leukemia kids had left when they saw Pierre was hitting obviously having not read Rudy’s predictions last season.