Joey Votto, 2010 Fantasy Outlook
December 18, 2009
Category: 2010 Fantasy Baseball Keepers
There’s very few 1st baseman I can see jumping into the top tiers for 2011, Joey Votto is one of them. This alone is reason for him to be a 2010 fantasy baseball keeper, but there’s more. Show me the way, Grey! I shall, random italicized voice! Last year, Votto missed games because of dizziness and a bad case of the Mondays. With that missed time, it was only natural to see Votto fall short of his previous year’s numbers when he had 151 games. Oh, wait. He outperformed those numbers in 20 less games. That’s a cause célèbre! If “cause célèbre” meant what it sounded like. To put it into colloquial Mandarin then back into English, “I’ve finished my meal now I want some fresh oranges.” “Here you go!” “Thank you!” So let’s look at what we can expect from Votto for 2010 fantasy baseball and why he’s a keeper and someone I’m targeting in drafts.
Double his 2nd half when he went 49/14/42/.300/2 in 267 at-bats and you’d have bottom of the barrel expectations for him. That would mean no step forward. If Votto continues to progress, you’re looking at a guy that could easily give you 32 homers, 10 steals and a .300 average. This is enough reason for him to be a 2010 fantasy baseball keeper, but, wait, there’s more. If you buy into Joey Votto for 2010, I’ll also throw in a climbing walk rate and OPS for absolutely free! Don’t want it? Who cares, it’s free! Before you have time to answer because I’m talking so fast, throw in a home park that makes the new Stadium Adjacent to the House That Ruth Built spacious. Want more? Tough noogs, it’s all I have.
December 18th, 2009 at 2:00 am
I love him as much as the prime rib I just had (happy birthday Dad!).
If I miss a 1B in the first two rounds, I’m all over him like chrome on a towbar.
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December 18th, 2009 at 4:13 am
@Steve: I’m in the same train of thought steve…. if i miss out on Fielder/Howard at the 12th pick (i know that sounds late for prince, but i think he’ll be there) then i’m looking for Votto coming back for my back to back picks in the 3rd and 4th rounds. It was frustrating owning him last year, but when he was playing wow. You gotta love a guy who’s getting 3 and 4 hits lotsa nights.
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December 18th, 2009 at 5:54 am
@Grey/anyone- since we’re talking 1B, what do you think of tex? Would you rather have Teixiera than Howard? He’s rated high on MDC right now like 6th overall (stupid), but for some reason i Just feel the guy is overrated, great player, not a first rounder. He’s going to give you 35/120 and hit .300 with no speed. Not a #6 overall whatsoever and pretty much would you rather have 35/120 .300 or 45/140 .275 (howard)? I’ll take the 10 homers and 15-25 ribbys anyday. I’m really starting to lean towards the camp of I want Fielder, if he’s not there I’ll take best available with my 12/13 picks, then HOPE votto comes back in the 3rd, hopefully take him and Zimmerman, maybe YOUK…. its all starting to come together in my head now….
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December 18th, 2009 at 6:04 am
@ Grey :
as a way of trying to return SOME of the joy
that you have brought into my world ,
i link this :
http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2009/12/connie_mack_and.php
in hopes that you read down far enough
and click on the “here”
which is high-lighted in blue .
fyi :
the harvey kuenn / rocky colavito trade was THE biggest trade from my childhood , dwarfing even the siebern/bauer/larsen deal for roger maris .
cust kayin’
and hoping you enjoy .
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December 18th, 2009 at 6:32 am
@Grey: Votto’s ADP is now 25. It may slide when casual mockers hit the scene, but is that too much to pay for a 1B who is 100/25/100/.300/5?
Votto seems like a piece of a winning team because of his solid contribution in four categories, but is his ADP too step for 1B, which may be the most stacked position in 2010 drafts?
The 1Bs being drafted ahead of Votto:
1. Pujols: 100/40/120/6/.320
6. Teixeira: 100/35/115/2.280
8. Cabrera: 100/35/115/4/.315
9. Fielder: 100/40/120/4/.280
10. Howard: 100/35/120/4/.260
25. VOTTO: 100/32/100/10/.300
31. Gonzalez: 90/35/100/0/.280
44. Morneau: 90/30/105/0/.285
53. Berkman: 90/25/95/8/.280
78. Pena: 85/35/100/3/.240
I’m so back-and-forth on Votto. When I look at the 1Bs that are drafted ahead of him, I think he’s a really viable alternative, especially if I draft in a spot where I draft a non-1B in the first round. BUT when I look at the guys that he’s drafted in front of (especially A-Gone and Morneau), Votto looks overvalued, even at Grey’s ceiling projections.
Votto seems like a Morneau clone. Maybe it’s because they’re both Canadian.
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December 18th, 2009 at 6:34 am
@sean: dont forget billy butler
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December 18th, 2009 at 6:39 am
@sean: why do you have Howard down at 35/120 when he’s went 45/145 for the past 4 years? Are these projects or? from where?
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December 18th, 2009 at 7:05 am
@Tony: Yeah, you’re right, those projections are light on Howard’s HR/RBI totals, but it doesn’t change the point of the post at all.
Would you rather have Howard and Sizemore or Kemp and Votto (using Bill James as an example instead of my arbitrary pull from the air projections)
103/48/143/5/.278
101/25/78/21/.272
80/27/90/7/.311
99/23/91/32/.311
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December 18th, 2009 at 7:27 am
@sean: gotya, i’d personally want Howard/Sizemore. I dont know thats a tough one. I think if i draft at the 12 spot, howard and sizemore is possible. Now if someone takes kemp and votto i’m thinking they’re taking kemp at like 7 or 8 then their second pick wouldn’t be votto so it would be more like KEMP/someone/VOTTO….
Basically I like the stat line I think howard/sizmore would produce, but the batting average from votto/Kemp would be MUCH better.
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December 18th, 2009 at 8:15 am
grey…
im in a 16 team cbs keeper league (took over for another manager that left).
I was offered (his) d. wright for (my) matt kemp
do you take it? I have votto @1b and youk @ 3b…
kemp is the only OF i would keep…
BUT the scoring system is
Singles 1 point
Doubles 2 points
Triples 3 points
Walks (Batters) 1 point
Caught Stealing -1 point
Hit by Pitch 1 point
Home Runs 4 points
Runs 1 point
RBI 2 points
Stolen Bases 2 points
Sacrifice Flies 1 point
do you make the move? or stick with kemp?
i could use any of the above (votto or youk) as my DH if you think wright has more value than kemp going forward…
Just for reference…in wrights off year last year…he yielded 599 points…kemp 717…
in years past though, wright had @ least 750…
thanks.,
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December 18th, 2009 at 8:23 am
Didn’t the dizziness turn out to be severe anxiety following his father’s death? That’s why they couldn’t diagnose it at first. (earache?!)
Secondly, shhhhhhhhhh!
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December 18th, 2009 at 8:41 am
“the stadium adjacent to the house that Ruth built”… Brilliant!
As a pretty serious Yankees fan, I’m waiting for someone from the organization to refer to the new Yankee stadium as the house that Ruth built… Would almost be enough to drive me away from my beloved Yanks. I still can’t believe they thought they needed a new one, when the old had so much history and mystique.
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December 18th, 2009 at 8:45 am
The reds have a pile of suck around Votto. The OF has the 2 guys with some upside but really haven’t done it yet. BP is another year older. Me thinks that will impact his rs/rbis. The other peripherals may stay pretty good but I think I would rather have Morneau (pending on his fractured back). I guess he does get to feast on NL central pitching all summer though.
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@Steve: Ha! Sounds like you’re a bit tipsy too. Was it Happy Birthday… Your present is we’re moving out.
@Tony: Tex is above Howard in my mind, but they’re all the same tier so it’s dealer’s choice really. Anywhere but new Yankee Stadium and Tex wouldn’t be above him.
@big o: Ah… The great Vin Scully.
@sean: 25 is not too much to pay as long as other 1st basemen are already off the board. I don’t have him ranked in front of A-Gon and Morneau though.
@PJtres: I’d want Kemp.
@John K: That was the reason, yeah.
@Xar: Yeah, pretty unnecessarily greedy.
@cws05nuts: I’d prefer Morneau too, but I wouldn’t kick Votto out of bed.
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December 18th, 2009 at 8:59 am
@Grey: Howard has his own little launching pad in philly, so to me i’d rather have him and his higher prodcution minus some average. Plus i play H2H and he’s a beast in august and september, but i guess TEX is a second half beast as well, tomato tomatoe…. I HATE THE YANKEES…..
@PJtres: KEEP KEMP, you have YOUK for 3B. Kemp for Wright is too much.
@Grey: Why is votto in your bed? was he dizzy again?
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@Tony: Ha!
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December 18th, 2009 at 9:40 am
@cws05nuts:
if you’re going to discount a projected decline for brandon phillips ,
from votto’s numbers ,
then , i feel , you must add-on an increase , of some sort ,
for whatever the next shit-bum will provide ,
over and above ,
the willy taveras experiment .
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December 18th, 2009 at 9:46 am
@cws05nuts: votto is a .300 hitter, morneua could go .300 or .275 just as easy as he’s shown the past 3 years. Votto will give you 10 SB’s, morneua 0. To me Morneua is no more than a glorified Billy Butler thats going to get 20 more RBI’s?
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December 18th, 2009 at 9:54 am
@Grey: Yeah, but only a little! Armagnac can do that. Was dinner for my dad’s birthday – it’s my father in law who gets to wave goodbye. sean’s list makes interesting reading. Maybe it is a deep position after all, but it seemed to get shallow real quick during the Razzmock.
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@Steve: Armagnac — nice, for its health benefits, no doubt. re: that list — I don’t think Berkman and Pena are in the same class of those other guys. And the other guys will all probably be gone by 3rd round of 12 team drafts.
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December 18th, 2009 at 10:07 am
@Grey: exactly what i was thinking grey…. ya they’re all 3B but that doesn’t mean you want to own them. Again i think you gotta throw Butler in there. Even with Butler minus pena and berkman thats only 9 firstbaseman i’d want, i guess you could count derek lee in there as well?
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December 18th, 2009 at 10:08 am
@Grey: Yeah, if you’re taking Pena or Berk as your 1B you’re probably pretty loaded elsewhere – or you should be.
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December 18th, 2009 at 10:08 am
1B, my bad, not 3B
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@Tony: Butler’s decent, but I wouldn’t overestimate his power. He could take the next step, but he hasn’t yet.
EDIT: Word.
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December 18th, 2009 at 11:14 am
@Grey: Agreed. I just think that Votto is closer to the Gonzalez/Morneau tier of 1Bs than the Fielder/Howard because Votto isn’t a threat to hit 40+HRs and he’s not going to swipe 20 bags to make up for the difference.
@Tony: Appreciate you being another constant lurker like myself lately. As long as the partners don’t start reading, I’m gold. I do think that 1B is a lot deeper than you are giving it credit for. There’s definitely a bit of a drop off in terms of consistency, sample size, and injury risk but I would consider:
56. K. Morales
88. B. Butler
93. D. Lee
138. C. Davis
140. C. Delgado
177. J. Cantu
216. P. Konerko
233. J. Loney
253. A. LaRoche
These guys are all obviously preferred to be your CI, but in a pinch they could prove a serviceable 1B on a team that went with 3B/MI/OF in the first five.
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@sean: If I had most of those names as my 1st baseman in a 12 team league, I’d start seriously considering trades.
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December 18th, 2009 at 11:17 am
@Steve: “I’m all over him like chrome on a towbar” conjours up image of an accident waiting to happen.
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December 18th, 2009 at 11:18 am
@big o: Are you going to give us a recap of your AL mock? (looks like your up against some heavy hitters)
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December 18th, 2009 at 11:18 am
So, I’ve been looking at my keepers in an 12 team 8 keeper OBP league and thinking of going after Votto. I’ve currently got Pena at 1B with Dunn filling in where needed. Here’s what I’m working with – what do you think?
Probable keeps:
Arod
Kemp
Dunn
Greinke
Cano
Wainright
Possible keeps:
Pena
Ichiro
Choo
Harden
Scraps that are mostly worthless at this stage:
Alexei
Soto
Kazmir
Wandy
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December 18th, 2009 at 11:19 am
@Grey: Thats true. I remember reading a year or two ago that Butler isn’t a power hitter. But say he stays at 20hr/90rbi .300 avg. He’s going to be 24 going into 2010, so i’d say he at least is on the upswing. Morneua is 29 and 30/130 .300 is probably morneua’s ceiling now, which 30/110 and .290 should probably be expected. Personally i’d rather go with Butler in the 8th round than Morneua in the 3rd? If Butler takes the next jump and we’re talking even 25/100 .300 its an even better investment. Thoughts?
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December 18th, 2009 at 11:19 am
@Simply Fred: conjours–must be testing to see if you are speaking French down there.
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December 18th, 2009 at 11:20 am
@sean: forgot about Kendry! it is a deep postion…. and yes i’m lurking, is it spring yet?
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December 18th, 2009 at 11:21 am
@Grey: With Johnson in at NYY, will Damon get another gig?
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December 18th, 2009 at 11:26 am
This year, with the strange injuries to last year’s first rounders (Wright, Reyes, Grady), Kinsler and Crawford being who we thought they were, and Mauer and V*Mart bringing some legitimacy back behind the dish, the second round seems like a virtual cornucopia of bust or boon type picks.
ADP/Name/Highest/Lowest
13. Wright (8/20)
14. Mauer (7/18)
15. Crawford (7/20)
16. Kinsler (10/22)
17. Ellsbury (13/24)
18. Tulowitzki (11/29)
19. Reynolds (14/28)
20. Reyes (12/29)
21. Rollins (14/31)
22. Bay (19/38)
23. V*Mart (16/36)
24. Sizemore (13/33)
I can make it a little easier by taking the catchers off the list of guys that I’m willing to draft in the second round (When I say catcher, you say…). I also refuse to draft Jason Bay in the second round, especially with the chance that he might be moving to Met/Safeco park.
Unlike the first rounders, there seems to be an usual amount of risk with these names. Any help navigating this minefield would be much appreciated.
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December 18th, 2009 at 11:31 am
@sean: you’re right its crazy in the second round… personally i wouldnt take reyes or reynolds there this year. I like TULO and Wright there. I’ve seen crawford go in the first round of some drafts. He’s due to fall back to overpriced this year I think. I dont think Ellsbury is a 2nd rounder at all. I love mauer, just not taking a catcher there or anywhere in the first 3 rounds.
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@The Dude: The team that has Votto, what do they need that you have?
@Tony: Morneau and Butler can be equal but until we actually see it, we have a guy batting behind Mauer and we have a guy batting behind Lord knows what. We also have a guy that gets 27+ homers and a guy that hasn’t sniffed 25. Morneau’s ceiling is probably 35 homers. But he has history of back problems and I’m be no means a Morneau apologist. I’ve never owned him. Always thought he was overrated. But we’re talking about Butler who has yet to do anything near his numbers.
@Simply Fred: re: Damon — Seems like it. Guess we’ll see. Maybe the Yankees can get Branyan and Vlad so no other teams can have a DH.
@sean: I think I mentioned somewhere (or maybe I wrote it in the top 20 post) that the 3rd round is the new 2nd round. 2nd round is a mess. I don’t think Wright, Kinsler, Reyes and Sizemore are as big as traps as some of the other guys.
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December 18th, 2009 at 11:31 am
@Simply Fred: I could give you what the saying actually is, but it’s a family show.
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@sean: @Tony: Oh, and Tulo.
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December 18th, 2009 at 11:35 am
@Grey: Agreed. I will most likely have a 1B before I get out of the third. Unless I have the second or third pick, I’m pretty much a lock for a 1B in the first round.
Can you explain why projection systems and pundits love Jimmy Rollins? Last year I had a blanket prohibition on drafting him, but this year I find myself pulling the trigger when he slides late in the second round in 2010 mocks. I’m not sure he’s as bad as portions of 2009, but I don’t really have any reason to believe he’ll be playing an MVP-caliber 2010. Does he deserve his own post?
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@sean: I don’t think he deserves his own post, but maybe. He’s a 20 homer shortstop with slowing speed. His average last year was an aberration, but he’s not a .300 hitter either. Great Runs and solid RBIs for his position.
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December 18th, 2009 at 11:43 am
@Grey: His top keepers are pretty clear cut:
Braun
Kinsler
Hamilton
McCann
Votto
After that though, it gets wishy washy…
Hanson
Price
Jimenez
Bourn
Buchholz
Jurrjens
Gamel
Rasmus
He’s obviously got a glutton of young arms, but he won’t keep more than 2 of them, most likely just Hanson. I know he wants to fill out his infield, but I don’t have a SS to offer him and I really can’t get value for Arod unless someone besides Votto is in the deal.
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@The Dude: I wonder if he’d go for Arod for Votto and Kinsler. BTW, kinda crazy that you consider Wandy scraps and Harden a possible keeper.
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December 18th, 2009 at 11:55 am
@Grey: Thought I caught your response in a forum regarding Wandy, not a keeper since he wouldn’t be trade-able? (was it someone else, my mind is going). I know that advice is specific to a situation (which I don’t recall), but it made me drop him from my watch list. ???
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December 18th, 2009 at 11:58 am
@Grey: ha – yeah, I just can’t get over that K rate…
That would leave me with Cano and Kinsler at 2B. One could play in UTIL, but I’m not a fan of a 2B UTIL.
Since he’s got such chaos at the lower end of his keepers, I am hoping to pull a 2 for 1 with him, rather than a 1 for 2.
I’d love to ship Pena+Ichiro for Votto. Or maybe Pena+Shoo. Either would give him a decent 1B replacement and an bonus OF. Too much?
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December 18th, 2009 at 11:59 am
@Grey: found it: “Look what Wandy did last year and he’s still going in 12th round of drafts. In other words, no one believes him. If CarGo does what he can do, you can ride the wave or trade him for much more than he’s worth. Wandy you won’t be able to trade.”
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@The Dude: Pena/Ichiro would be better for you but I just didn’t think he’d take that sorta deal. Maybe I gave your trade partner too much credit. Try it.
@Simply Fred: But would you own Harden? I wouldn’t.
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@Simply Fred: I.e., because I wouldn’t keep Wandy doesn’t mean I wouldn’t own him.
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December 18th, 2009 at 12:54 pm
Votto’s one of those guys, in my opinion, who everybody loves to the point that he’s no longer a sleeper. I wish he’d fall a round or two further because i’d love to draft him but i can’t justify it when Butler and Morales are available considerably later. That said, i’d like to ____ one of the upper tear guys if i have the chance.
Replace ____ with “land”, “score”, “grab”, or “hit on”.
Yikes!
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@brett: Nice Madlibs… Ha!
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December 18th, 2009 at 1:30 pm
@Grey: Thanks for your patience. Clearly, there are nuances I am trying to catch onto, but there are situations that are still foggy to me.
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December 18th, 2009 at 1:44 pm
@brett: haha most 3-4th rounders aren’t sleepers… he wasn’t a sleeper last year and he’s definitely not a sleeper this year.
@Grey: I agree on the Butler/Morneua talk. I just like that Butler is 24 and is likely to progress a little more and where I can take him in a draft compared to Morneua. Morneua obviously has a better line up, team, etc. But a little less 5-6 rounds later?
Plus Morneua is Canadien and a Canadien stole my banking info and rang up $400 bucks! DAMN CANADIENS!!!
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@tony: You got canucked!
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December 18th, 2009 at 2:03 pm
@tony: Where is this Butler = Morneau talk coming from? Butler is like a 300-lb. Mark Grace. Morneau is a 30/100/.300 all-star 1B. I know Morneau has had some injury history, but his production is about as consistent as it gets and he’s only 28. Last year, he hit 30 HRs in just 508 ABs. I’m not huge on the guy, but you can do way worse, and Butler IS way worse in my opinion.
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December 18th, 2009 at 4:27 pm
@sean: last three years combined post-ASB:
avg/obp/slg
morneau: .241/.326/.424 (189 GP)
butler: .305/.361/.491 (197 GP)
IF Butler ever transfers 2nd half to first (he’s young), watch out.
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@Simply Fred: Or if he can transfer his spring training numbers, he is Mr. Grapefruit.
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December 18th, 2009 at 5:12 pm
@Simply Fred: Global warming–that’s the ticket!
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December 18th, 2009 at 6:57 pm
is this some sort of test , or sumpin ?
i mean ,
how long before someone breaks the silence ?
did you hear ? did you hear ??
carlos silva is being considered for the 5th starters spot
in the windy city !
oh lord .
half of chicago was just wanting to get rid
of that sleaze-bag/ malcontent milton bradley .
and now , they got their wish !!
merry christmas .
ha .
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December 18th, 2009 at 7:38 pm
oh , come on .
you can’t all be related to carlos silva .
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@Simply Fred: Global, indeed.
@big o: Silva and Bradley — M’s and Cubs exchange burdens.
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December 18th, 2009 at 10:04 pm
@Simply Fred: Interesting splits. I’m going to take a closer look at Butler, but I think the hype machine may take him out of the range of cost-effective alternatives.
Its too bad that his power is so questionable because you could really get excited about his 51 doubles last year translating to a jump into the 30-35 HR range, but I just don’t see it happening…
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December 18th, 2009 at 10:19 pm
@sean: I’m not totally convinced on Butler myself. I don’t have him targeted yet–mainly because he doesn’t fit the balance of the team right now. If he weren’t a 1B he’d probably fall to a reasonable value level, but…
(BTW: thanks for being you–a really good guy!)
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December 19th, 2009 at 7:30 am
@sean: I’m talking #’s sean not body type and how many doughnuts each of them could eat in one sitting.
I’m also looking at where you draft each of these guys and what you could take instead of taking Morneua in that spot (since i think he’s taken about a round early). Even if Butler hits 20/90 and .300 wouldnt you rather have that in the 8-9th round than 30/110 .300 in the 3rd round? And thats saying Butler doesn’t progress. He has youth/upside on his side. Morneua is by no means old and done, but he is going to be 29 going into this season. He has had the back issues. Back issues are NOT GOOD.
I just think 20/90 for Butler is low end. Say that easily bumps up to 25/100? and a .300 average, now who would you want? I’m not saying i’m that high on butler, or that excited, but more so that I would not be interested in taking Morneua in the 3rd round to get ABOUT the same thing.
Right now at MDC Morneua is #44 (actually lower than i thought) but if you dont take him there (in theory) Lind #42, Zimmerman #43, and then cano #46, aaron Hill #50….. i’d much rather have a zimmerman or lind there if I had the choice knowing I’m filling my 3B slot or getting a mashing, young OF’er.
@Simply Fred: i’m not really hyping him, just saying why take this when you could take this later…?
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December 19th, 2009 at 9:43 am
@tony: I think Butler over Morneau is a not brainer for all of the reasons above, especially the back issues and second half drops. The mocks I’ve been in are drafting Butler 6th round in a 12-team, still a little high?
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December 19th, 2009 at 11:27 am
@Simply Fred: ya i think butler in the 6th is high…. if he’s going there I dont know if I’ll own him, but i guess its probably still better than Morneua in the 3rd… it all just depends.
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December 19th, 2009 at 4:14 pm
Like the Votto call here. I also think that Billy Butler will star in Joey Votto from 2009 – without the case of the Mondays though.
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December 19th, 2009 at 8:28 pm
@Grey:
dude
(can i call you “dude” ?)
dude :
i don’t know when you’re coming east ,
but today ain’t the day .
trust me .
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December 19th, 2009 at 8:44 pm
FYI, Lowel to Rangers deal is OFF. Lowel needs surgery for the torn ligament in his right thumb.
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@big o: Of course, dude. Next week I head east.
@GopherDay: Can’t say I’m completely surprised. Go Chris Davis!
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December 19th, 2009 at 11:06 pm
There’s a new post in Forums>Active Topics: Winner of Razzball 2010 Mock
http://razzball.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=20&t=5790
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December 20th, 2009 at 6:57 am
@Grey:
i think the worst is over .
15 ” of snow in the past 10 hours .
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December 20th, 2009 at 7:38 am
@big o: sled dogging it to the casino today?
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December 20th, 2009 at 8:21 am
@Simply Fred:
nope .
funny how , when we walked to school ,
it was up-hill …. both ways .
now , when i drive to work ,
it’s all down-hill , from here .
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December 20th, 2009 at 8:24 am
@big o: That’s the ticket–easy sledding!
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@big o: Yeah, and it was 82 here yesterday. Not looking forward to going east next week.
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