Last week, I looked at the pitchers that were getting lucky for fantasy baseball. This week, we hold that up to the mirror and see how the other half lives. You know, the unlucky ones. These guys are either not leaving men on base at a normal rate and/or they’re giving up hits like there’s 7 Pat Burrells behind them. They couldn’t get lucky with a gingie stache, a chicken wing and a drunk Margo Adams. But that could all change. Anyway, here’s a list of pitchers with the biggest difference between their xFIP and their ERA. (If your guy is on the list, it’s a good sign. Some would even say you could go out and trade for some of these guys, you educated fantasy baseball owner you!)
Josh Beckett – 3.11. Red State Jeter has an ERA of 7.46. You don’t need me to tell you that that should be better.
Gavin Floyd – 2.59. Here’s another no-brainer, which is my specialty. Floyd is not a 6.92 ERA pitcher.
Edwin Jackson – 2.82. But before you go out and by a Edwin Jackson jersey, his xFIP is only 4.50. So, yes, he’ll be better from 7.32, but still not great.
Justin Masterson – 2.23. His xFIP is the lowest on this list at 3.00. The nice thing about Masterson is he’s striking out more than 10 batters per 9 innings. The not so nice thing, lefties are hitting .373 against him.
Aaron Harang – 2.49. One of the bigger surprises on this list for me was the Harangtuan. His xFIP is 3.53. His BB/9 is only 1.79 and his K/9 is 8.03. In most leagues, he’s probably on waivers, so it’s worth keeping an eye on him for the turn around.
Randy Wells – 1.41. This is either payback by the Fangraphs Database for Wells getting lucky last year. Or Wells will be better. Choice is yours, Black Sheep.
Dan Haren – 0.99. Unluckiness obviously knows nothing about it being before the All-Star Break.
Cole Hamels – 1.07. A 10+ K/9 and an unlucky BABIP, which was not that terrible movie with Halle Berry.