Last week, I looked at the pitchers that were getting lucky for fantasy baseball. This week, we hold that up to the mirror and see how the other half lives. You know, the unlucky ones. These guys are either not leaving men on base at a normal rate and/or they’re giving up hits like there’s 7 Pat Burrells behind them. They couldn’t get lucky with a gingie stache, a chicken wing and a drunk Margo Adams. But that could all change. Anyway, here’s a list of pitchers with the biggest difference between their xFIP and their ERA. (If your guy is on the list, it’s a good sign. Some would even say you could go out and trade for some of these guys, you educated fantasy baseball owner you!)
Josh Beckett – 3.11. Red State Jeter has an ERA of 7.46. You don’t need me to tell you that that should be better.
Gavin Floyd – 2.59. Here’s another no-brainer, which is my specialty. Floyd is not a 6.92 ERA pitcher.
Edwin Jackson – 2.82. But before you go out and by a Edwin Jackson jersey, his xFIP is only 4.50. So, yes, he’ll be better from 7.32, but still not great.
Justin Masterson – 2.23. His xFIP is the lowest on this list at 3.00. The nice thing about Masterson is he’s striking out more than 10 batters per 9 innings. The not so nice thing, lefties are hitting .373 against him.
Aaron Harang – 2.49. One of the bigger surprises on this list for me was the Harangtuan. His xFIP is 3.53. His BB/9 is only 1.79 and his K/9 is 8.03. In most leagues, he’s probably on waivers, so it’s worth keeping an eye on him for the turn around.
Randy Wells – 1.41. This is either payback by the Fangraphs Database for Wells getting lucky last year. Or Wells will be better. Choice is yours, Black Sheep.
Dan Haren – 0.99. Unluckiness obviously knows nothing about it being before the All-Star Break.
Cole Hamels – 1.07. A 10+ K/9 and an unlucky BABIP, which was not that terrible movie with Halle Berry.
Hey Grey, still down on Robot Jones.
That 21/22 BB/k rate makes me think he is a good buy low.
what do you think?
Sheesh. Now why did I just spend the last 45 minutes looking over this stuff at fangraphs when I could’ve just waited for Grey to do it for me!
Grey, out of curiosity, do you(or Rudy for that matter) ever look at Skill Interactive Earned Run Average?
@Donnie Baseball: Just answered that in the last post, no?
@Dingo: Hehe
@Eddy: Can’t speak for Rudy, but I haven’t looked at SIERA much.
Okay, Adam Lind-panic-attackers:
You got me curious, so I looked up a few stats from last year, Lind’s “breakout” season. Remember how everyone was scrambling to grab him last April?
April ’09: .315/13R/4HR/20RBI and 23 Ks
April ’10: .286/15R/4HR/14RBI and 27 Ks
So, not a big variance. 4 extra Ks, 3 fewer hits. Fewer RBIs (absent hot Hills); more runs (thanks, hot Wells).
But you’re saying, “It’s not April I’m worried about! It’s his stone-cold May! Dude, he’s 3 for 40 (.075) with 11 Ks!”
Let’s look back at last year. In May ’09 (good times!) Lind hit .264 with 20 Ks. This included a month-ending stretch in which he went — wait for it — 3 for 49 with, yes, 14 Ks.
Ergo, his last ten days of May in ’09 were actually worse than his first ten days of May in ’10.
Moral of the story: Don’t panic. He’s slumping. He will slump. All players slump. But this little run isn’t actually worse than anything he went through in his breakout ’09 season.
P.S. He then hit .360 in June.
Can we all exhale now?*
*(Me included. Yes, I own him. What, you think I did all this math for you?)
@Donnie Baseball: I think he answered this in the last thread. Good upside, avg drag.
Haren and Newly acquired Hamels are on my yahoo tm, and i have masterson on the RCL….. good to see.
Especially on Haren and HAMELS, altho hamels being unlucky in the 1st half? whats that mean for half #2? LOL efff me.
Hi Grey — I love these kinds of stats.
How much do you think the gap between ERA and xFIP can simply be attributed to a team’s sloppy defense? Could you measure the quality of a team’s defense by charting the gap between its staff ERA and the staff xFIP? I wonder if anyone’s looked into that. Are there other Red or White Sox pitchers further down the list?
If memory serves, there were no Sox of any color on last week’s lucky list.
Also, you warned against Jackson because his xFIP is 4.50, but if I did the math right Beckett’s is 4.35 and Floyd’s is 4.33 — better but not significantly better for what must be seen as a fairly an inexact tool. None of the three are great.
Still, clearly, we’d all rather have Beckett over Floyd and Floyd over Jackson … do you think this information should be used in concert with some other info (like historical trends for that pitcher) to give it more context?
@Baron Von Vulturewins: Nice breakdown.
@Tony: Ha
@enrique: Yes re: Edwin, but he’s striking out 2 less batters per 9 than the other two. It removes fielding from the equation.
@Grey: Would you do this trade?
I give:
Alex Rodriguez
Justin Upton
David Price
Ricky Romero
I Get:
Hanley Ramirez
Ian Kinsler
Nick Markakis
Its a keep 5 league. Im already planning on keeping Wieters, Heyward, T Hanson, and either Strasburg or Chapman. Im sort of deep at SP which is why i was able to give way Price and Romero. I picked up LeBlanc in response. My OF is now Markakis, Heyward, CGonz, or J Hamilton. I have Casey McGhee or Jose Lopez to fill the hole at 3B. Its a 11 team roto. Was it worth losing Upton and Price in the long run?
I completely forgot to brag about that THE Matthew Berry from ESPN was sitting next to me at the Cubby Bear before last night’s Cubs game. He’s actually a pretty cool dude besides the fact he was forcing me to drink an inferior beer (Miller Lite).
@Harry Plopper: I’d take the Hanley side.
@Harry Plopper: Nope.
Upton and Price is too steep a, er, price. Not to mention A-Rod. Even in a non-keeper league, I wouldn’t do this trade, but losing J-Ups and Price next year and beyond is way too expensive.
Hi everyone. I’m still trying to get Wiggy with it. My hopes for packaging Wigginton with someone for a top-notch pitcher are evaporating. I still need starting pitching and power in a 20-team league. Which is a better 1-for-1 deal for the rest of the year?
–Wigginton for Gavid Floyd (he of the unlucku xFIP gap)
or
–Wigginton for Aramis Ramirez
@Harry Plopper: dude, no. you are planning on keeping a lot of potential without much production. what if hanson gets hurt? what if chapman and/or strasburg don’t like up the world? what if wieters keeps his slugging below .400? upton has as much ceiling and more MLB track record than any of the guys you are “planning on keeping”, and the same goes for price.
@Grey – Gavin Floyd or WandyWagon or Ervin Santana?
@ThePoonTycoon: er, “like up the world” = “light up the world”
@Baron Von Vulturewins: hey baron, shut your face. i hope a couple of these dudes are in my leagues and i’d like to pick up lind off waivers.
Even in a deep league, there’s no reason to consider streaming Moyer @ COL tomorrow right?
@enrique: Aramis
@William: Wandy if healthy, though that’s debatable. Ervin…
@Eric: Nope
@Harry Plopper: Also, the phrase “I have Casey McGhee or Jose Lopez to fill the hole at 3B” isn’t the most heartening, especially when the hole you are filling is A-Rod.
@Eric: Nope, nosiree.
@ThePoonTycoon: You’re right.
ATTENTION: Lind is done! Sophomore slump! Lose him! Also: Grady Sizemore is useless! Aramis Ramirez — kick to curb right now!
In fact, look at your team and if anyone hit under .350 with less than 2 HRs over the last week, DROP HIM IMMEDIATELY.
Which side wins: Kelly Johnson/Carlos Pena for Ian Kinsler?
@Grey – so how would you rank my pitching staff then?
Johan Santana, Cole Hamels, Clay Buchholz, AJ Burnett, Kevin Slowey, Ervin Santana, and WandyWagon
I’m thinking of taking a flier on Gavin Floyd because my staff has thrown some real stinkers up there.
I play in a H2H Standard 5×5 Roto if that sways your rankings in any way.
Holland called up.
@Grey: What do you think about him? I know hitters park etc.
Watching and playing Lind has been tough.
@Grey:
Oops, sorry Grey. I thought you switched over to this post already.
Thanks for the help.
@PaddyTwoTimes:
I’m all in on Holland.
Been following each of AAA starts and I think now that he has that year under his belt he is going to be an above average starter.
I am considering dealing Francisco Cordero for Elvis Andrus. Should I pull the trigger?
I currently have only two closers – Cordero and Papelbon – in a 6X6 roto league with Holds (I also have Zumaya and Clippard). I am middle of the pack in saves at the moment. If the deal goes through, I would drop Eric Young, Jr. and pick up Huston Street to stash. But this would leave me with one closer for two weeks til Street is back (I have benched and wont drop either Grady Sizemore or Gordon Beckham just to grab another scrub closer).
On the other hand, the upgrade from EY to Andrus is significant. I need steals, and whatever EY’s potential, Andrus is the one bringing home the bacon.
Offered a guy Youkilis/Kershaw to get Wright/Beckett just today. Hope he grabs it and I hope the luck turns around.
14 team, H2H, 5×5, keeper league (keepers cost you nothing as everyone has to keep 8 and there is no limit to how long you can keep)
Which side do you want:
Arod, Slowey, Swisher or Verlander, Lind
@Frank Rizzo: I think that deal is basically a push and I might prefer the Youk/Kershaw side. As a caveat, I’m not sold on Beckett turning it around in the shortrun. He looks like he’s hiding an injury to me.
@Grey: what’s your take on me dealing BJ-Up and Stewart for the mini-donkey? I need to open up a roster spot for Cruz when he comes back. Poon said he didn’t like it. Baron said he did. I need an umpire to settle the difference. Much obliged.
Better long term use of a bench spot,
Fister, Floyd, CJ Wilson, or Masterson?
(OR spot start Clippard even)
10 man 5×5 no trades league
@Chris: Sounds like a fine plan to me. Street’s supposed to be back in two weeks and no one is holding him back from immediately slotting in as the closer. ABtC: always be trading closers.
@Wilsonian:
Don’t like it.
Crystal ball question. Rank over the next couple months:
Bruce
Quentin
Markakis
Need steals and might use one as trade bait for… McCutchen? Thoughts?
@Buge Hoobs: i’ve been hitched to the wilson wagon since week 2. no looking back now.
Someone dropped Aramis and his 0.183 BABIP in my 10 team FAAB league, how much of my $100 budget do you guys think I need to use to try and grab him? Its FAAB only on waiver players, not FAs.
@Buge Hoobs: In a ten-team league, I’m not seeing why any of these guys have to be long term when you can pick and choose off of the wire. My vote would go to CJ Wilson though. Floyd is a decent play, though I’ve never been sold on his skills. The other two are matchups guys.
If your ratios are bad, you can slot in Clippard. I’m doing that in a couple of leagues.
@Donnie Baseball: Thanks Mr. Baseball. I am thinkin about grabbing him. I guess there is no guarantee for playing time though.
Ordonez and Romero for Cain. Which side you likey? I’m feelin like takin a ride on the Cain Train.
@sean: My pitching staff is stacked and I have a huge lead in K’s, however my WHIP is awful. Swapping Kershaw for Beckett could actually help my team in the long run. And Wright for Youk is not a push.
@Wilsonian: this is also in an 8 team, H2H, 5 player keeper.
Side note: same league…just got an offer of his Werth for my Ubaldo…am I stupid to even have to ask, or is this an auto reject?
@Frank Rizzo: i definitely like the wright/beckett side. even if beckett doesn’t completely come around.
@NukeLaDouche:
I would say Cain without a doubt. But heard his velocity is down. But he does look good right now.
So I say Cain with a little doubt.
Anyone want to give me a hand:
Javy Vazquez is a free agent. Would you prefer Javy over Correia, Floyd, or Colby Lewis all of whom I’m currently rostering?
Totally stumped on this one: 4×4 nl-only 12 team league: do I want Zito or Gallardo more the rest of this season? Gallardo’s k’s would be useless.
12 team mixed roto. i wanna pretty up some ratios and snag a vulture W or save from time to time. daily lineups. start 5 SPs 2 RPs. wanna pick up contreras to slot in a SP spot. who to drop:
haren (obviously no)
beckett
kershaw
slowey
cj wilson
colby lewis
ian kennedy
jaime garcia
i also kinda hope beckett hits the DL and i can use his roster spot for a few weeks. i’m trying to pull some 2-for-1s where i send a SP and a hitter for a SP upgrade, but everyone want’s to give 2 and get 1.
@Frank Rizzo: Makes sense if you need the help lowering your WHIP. Even when Beckett pitched to a 4-era a couple years back, he still had a WHIP under 1.2
I agree that Wright is an improvement over Youk, but I’m not going to kick 100/30/100/.300 out of bed either. Wright’s value over Youk comes in SBs.
how does the a-rod/braden tiff impact my fantasy team
@ThePoonTycoon: I’m a Garcia believer. I like him over Kennedy. I say Ian is the most expendable.
@sean: that’s kinda what i thought too. but at the same time his whip is helping me out when i slot him for a start.
also, i have adam jones and travis snider. been starting snider over jones. but have cruz on the DL, so one of them is probably getting the boot pretty soon.
Just traded for Cordero, so I need to drop one of the following…
Contreras, Motte, Moylan, Romo, Takahashi
I like the SP/RP flexibility & penchant for Ks that Contreras and Takahashi have, so I guess it’s really down to the middle three. I’m leaning Romo because of his recent struggles, but Moylan has a rather high WHIP right now. Here are the pitching cats…
ERA, HD, INN, K, QS, S-BS, W-L, WHIP
Whaddaya say?
Hey Grey…..4 x 4 Keeper league question …. if I am looking for cheap saves Taipei Slinklo or Feliz for next year?
Konerko or lind?
Hi Grey — How would you rank these five guys in roto for the rest of the season (no keepers)? Is there a huge drop off at some point?
My best guess is Chaucin > Floyd > Latos > Chapman > Vargas, with the biggest drop between Floyd and Latos or between Chapman and Vargas. Am I close?
I would still go with Lind. I think he snaps out of it and ends up with more HRs and RBIs than Konerko.
Well, Mr. Grey….I notice you didn’t include your favorite whipping boy in this post…so I will do so. Rick Porcello’s xFIP is 4.61, while his ERA is a ghastly 7.50, which is a pretty significant gap. Further looks at his stats show his underlying numbers are largely the same or better than his rookie season…and the FIP disparity stems mostly from his BABIP against currently standing at .396. Could it be he’s not quite the bum you paint him to be?
(And yes, I’m still bitter. My patience with this kid in my keeper league WILL pay off, even if it’s not til 2012).
@sean and poon: point taken, thanks. Dropping Fister for either CJ or Clippard. Not sure which though. I need K’s more than ratio help right now so that’s why I’m strongly considering Masterson.
@Grey:
Which side of this trade, Prince/KelJo or Hanley/BPhillips?
Which side of this trade would you want? Matusz or Juan Pierre?
keeper league. crawford’s owner is shopping him. what kinda player do i include with bj upton if i wanna make an offer?
@tHe ShiT: Hanley side. Not particularly close.
Hanley > Prince
BPhil > KJo
@Mike: I would want not to be in a league where I’d have to contemplate this kind of trade.
Pierre = steals. If you need/don’t need steals, act accordingly.
@Mann of Sandd: More like Poopcello.
@Beau: Lind Lind Lind. Also, Lind.
Konerko be what Konerko be: .275/30/90. This is true now and was true in March when you didn’t draft him in the 5th round, right after Lind.
@sean: Personally I’m thinking more like 90/25/85/.300 for Youk this year.
@Mike: I like Matusz, I feel he will shake off the funk and win AL ROY…
i’m in a 10 team auction league with keepers. my starting pitchers are:
josh johnson
ricky nolasco
chad billingsley
javy vasquez
clay buchholz
wade davis
jaime garcia
jhoulys chacin
i think i may be able to pull of a trade in whcih i can trade javy vasquez for beckett…… would that be in my best interest or will javy really turn it around. also, gavin floyd was recently dropped in my league should i pick him up and which pitcher should i drop for i him?
@Baron Von Vulturewins: Thx. I would b getting the Hanley side. If I need power do I still do the deal?
@Baron Von Vulturewins: Yeah, thats what i was thinking, just making sure i havent lost it yet. Team is struggling.
traded Zobrist and Romero for Kendry Morales in a 20 team mixed league. Good deal? or did i give up on Zo too early?
Brandon Phillips for Casey McGehee and ___________ (Starlin Castro, Callaspo, Jose Lopez, Yunel Escobar, Aviles) Fill in the blank is any are worth it
McLouth, Blanks or Peralta would be dropped
@tHe ShiT: Well, you’re losing power in the deal. Prince could easily hit 20 more HRs than Hanley. (And I think the other two are a wash.) A lot depends on who your current SS is and who you’d slot in at 1B. There’s a good chance, for example, that any replacement 1B schmo (read: A. LaRoche) will hit you about 25 HRs, which makes up for the ones you lost from Prince.
@Beau: Struggles in May are surges in June/July. Remember, the guy who’s in first now is in first because more than a few of his players are playing over their paygrade. Remember last year, when the guy with Raul Ibanez was in first in April?
Replace “Ibanez” with “Vernon Wells” and you have 2010.
Talent will out itself. Build the best roster now, enjoy it in July.
12 team h2h (5×5 with obp instead of avg) where we keep 5:
Should I trade:
Zimmerman for Headley & Hughes? I think Zimmerman is likely to be in my top 5 the other guys not so much. No brainer?
@Matt B: durr, I’d be giving up Headley & Hughes
bj upton + pence for crawford sound about fair?
@Matt B: No you should not.
@Baron Von Vulturewins:
I think you may dig my team after reading your love for Upton and Andrus. I’m in a deep 12 Team H2H League (40 Innings Pitched Minimum per week). I’m trying to upgrade at 2B. Was offered Kendrick, Ryan Franklin and Jon Sanchez for Verlander and Beckham. I’m want to counter something that would replace Zobrist for Kendrick on the side I’m getting. Any suggestions for a counter offer?
C: Suzuki (have Carlos Santana on the bench)
1b: M. Reynolds (traded D-Lee and Lackey for before the season)
2b: Beckham/Jose Lopez
3b: Headley
SS: Andrus
OF: Holliday
OF: J. Upton (traded Heyward and Jenks for)
OF: Kemp
UTIL: N. Morgan and Beltre
SP: Verlander, F. Hernandez, Lester, Bucholtz, Latos, Leake, Carmona
RP: Broxton, N. Feliz
@Matt B: I see you had it backwards. In that case, yes you should.
@sean: Kinsler
@William: Obviously they haven’t been great so far, but I think they’ll be okay.
@PaddyTwoTimes: I like him.
@Slumpbustin: It’s fair, depends on needs. I’d take A-Rod.
@Wilsonian: Too much.
@Kazmere: Bruce, Markakis… Trade Quentin for McCutchen.
@Beau: $3
@Big Nate: Over Correia
@ZK: Gallardo
@ThePoonTycoon: I see no one there to drop.
@Critter Nagurski: Don’t want them on the same fantasy team. Bad clubhouse mojo.
@Jarrad: Romo
@Potus: Taipei
@Enrique: Depends on matchups, the drop off before Vargas makes sense.
@Mann of Sandd: I didn’t think anyone would be excited by a 4.61 with a 5-something K-rate.
@ThePoonTycoon: A BRain Freeze to a donkeycorn.
@vottomatic: I’d prefer Beckett. You don’t have anyone to drop in a keeper.
@AB: It’s fine.
@Cheese: Trade any of them, except Starlin.
@Matt B: I’d want Zimmerman.
@ThePoonTycoon: Eh
Ryan Braun is an amazing baseball player with talent oozing out of his pores. With that said, I think he’s kind of a pansy.
@ tHe ShiT: Hanley.
I second Grey’s cautious statisticaly-induced optimism on Harang. Ball’s been coming out of his hand excellently over his last couple starts, best I’ve seen him look in a couple years. He’s still gonna give up hits and dingers at a clip befitting a 4 starter, but his ratios so far look absolutely legit to me.
@Grey: I’d be the one trading away Phillips, or is that how you interpreted it?
@Baron Von Vulturewins: I would put Billy Butler @ 1b, I have Zobrist @ but would move him 2 of. Still worth doing the deal? Hanley and Phillips woulp me in sb’s which i need.
@tHe ShiT: In that case, sure. You may still have power problems down the road, though. That’s going to be true of any team that loads up on guys like Butler, Zobrist (in the OF), and BPhil. A lot of 20-25 HR guys here, but no 35 HR guys here. Here’s an idea: Go get Lind!
@Howie Met Your Mother: Nice looking squad. I don’t like that trade for you — I don’t think you can lose Verlander (the best player in the deal) for the ostensible upgrade at 2B. I’d counter with Buchholz and Beckham for Zobrist. Zorilla hasn’t exactly been on fire this year. Exploit that.
@Mann of Sandd: Porcello is six shades of awful for fantasy baseball. He combines the epic skills of not striking anyone out and giving up a ton of hits.
@Cheese: I’d want Phillips.
@Grey: But you’d rather have Castro and McGehee over Phillips?
@Cheese: Not really… Why do you want two players that could give you the same as one?
@Baron Von Vulturewins: Already tried getting Lind twice and the owner wont budge… I also have Nelson Cruz, Zimmerman, Robot, Snider if it helps assessing my situation more…
Anybody rolling with Vazquez tonight? He might not suck!
@tHe ShiT: he’s probably a reasonably smart owner and isn’t gonna panic sell because a guy has a rough week or 2. sometimes you just have to realize you are either gonna have to pay full value or move on if the owner is savvy enough to not sell a guy struggling for 2 weeks for cheap.
@Calogero: I’d give it a shot. Comerica’s not really homer friendly and the Tigers are pretty tame.
Heyward for KING FELIX?
I’m going to kill this one guy in our league.
Braun and Street or Cabrera and Feliz?
@tHe ShiT: Cruz makes me happy.
Do the trade. Worry about balance later. May = accumulate talent. June = assess needs. July = trade to fill holes. August = hot, humid weather. Sept = pick up crappy closers when no one else is paying attention. Oct = champagne, baby.
@Tony: You mean someone made that trade in your league? Or offered it to you?
In either case, yes, homicide is justified.
@Calogero: @sean: I’m staying far away from Vazquez until he shows any of the following:
1) Faster fastball
2) Fewer walks
3) Fewer fly balls
All three measures are under his control and are substantially worse this year than his career averages. Until those things improve (and they’ve shown no sign of it so far), then there’s no way you can blame his poor results on luck. If he shows progress on those fronts, then he’ll start earning my trust back — even if he still gives up a handfull of hits and a HR or two.
@GopherDay: Braun side. It’s close though. Kind of trading apples-for-apples, no?
Until Masterson develops a 3rd pitch against lefties than he’s basically useless….
Johan and Zobrist for Ubaldo .. who wins the trade ?
@Baron Von Vulturewins: Yeah it is…I already had Tex to play first and I needed OF help, so it worked out for me. But Apples for Apples no less…
Is Werth for Ubaldo good for anyone? Or wash? Or lopsided in one way or the other?
@Grey: Re: Trade Quentin for McCutchen. McC owner not biting. He wants Oswalt. Drop one of my ratio RPs and grab Pierre off FA? Hate to lose the other stats w/ Pierre (10 tm roto), but no one else wants to trade.
Dig the clever formula Baron. Very useful for us simpletons.
@Kazmere: I would trade Oswalt for McC in a blink.
P.S. Just read that Cruz not being activated from DL on Thursday after all. So no need to drop Halladay yet.
@Grey,
Rest of Season Value, AL 5×5 Roto – Am I ranking correctly?
1) Holland
2) Duchscherer
3) Cecil
4) Fister
Thanks Grey,
Mike D.
@Baron Von Vulturewins: where did you see that? My Magic 8 Ball says “Signs Point to Yes.”
@Wilsonian: at this point i think ubaldo has to be valued right there with halladay. would you trade halladay for werth?
@Baron Von Vulturewins: Yeah? Just read a blip on ESPeeN that McCutch was due for a big regression. Whaddya think? I have Lester, Hamels, Nolasco, Peavy, Slowey. Os is my best (stats) SP thus far, so it seemed like a lot for a potentially big regression. No?
hey everyone,
I am updating my roster, heading over to do my voting, and commenting at the refresh project as I watch baseball for the night. Thanks for votes today as we are 6 away from from going into the double digits.
@ThePoonTycoon: oh, I hit “reject” real quick. Just wondering if it was the right decision.
@Kazmere:
Regression to what? I don’t think anyone was expecting him to be a .300 hitter all year. He’ll be a .285 guy with great speed and some pop, kinda Crawford-Lite. To me thats a great #3 OF.
@Wilsonian:
He’s still on the DL so Im guessing Thursday it is.
@Tony: Wow, Can you believe it!! When I said his team would tank, I was not expecting him to take it apart on his own. The guy has serious Rookie Nookie Fever.
@SamYo: I’ll take Ubaldo, but it’s even.
@Wilsonian: It’s fair.
@Kazmere: Sure, trade Oswalt for him.
@Mike D.: Cecil, Holland, Fister… Unless Duchscherer suddenly stays healthy.
In a 18 team ESPN roto league, I’m in 3rd place. Doing well in every category except runs and SBs–tied for 11th and 14th. SB is the real problem. I have a total of 9 so far and the leader has 33. I can’t be this bad in a category if I want to win so I’m trying to get Juan Pierre.
I give Freese for Pierre. (FYI, Jay-Z modeled his dope dealing after Pierre’s running game)
I had originally offered Ike and Saunders for Pierre but was countered. So, should I do it? I love Freese, but I do need the steals badly. My only other steals guys are Utley, Asdrubal, Reynolds, Cruz, and Gwynn. Can’t rely on them and I might have to drop Gwynn some time. Pierre would give me at least 30 more the rest of the way and insure I don’t lose the category horrible.
Where are you getting the xFIP info? fangraphs?
horribly*
@charlie batch: Yea it’s on fangraphs.
Grey would you drop matusz for Floyd?
is wieters worth more than olivo by this point in the season
@charlie batch: or napoli, I should add. Which of the three would you most rather have
Anyone trusting Slowey tonight vs. CWS?
Yanks-Tigers postponed. Adjust or leave a gaping hole in your roster as appropriate.
@Tom Emanski: Go for it.
@Mikey boy324: Eh
@charlie batch: Wieters
@bobbo: I’m starting him.
@Steve: Dang… Thanks for the heads up!
@Steve:
And so we are spared a Javi start for now..
Gordon Beckham was bumped to the eighth spot in the batting order Tuesday.
Beckham has been the primary No. 2 hitter
good thing he is not in the National League – he would be batting ninth
@bobbo:
Slowey hasn’t been bad, he’s just been less than hoped for. Im definitely using him.
Ya I’m not crazy about it either one more question I’m looking to add a bat I got offered rios for hamels do you think that’s fair or should I ask for more?
quentin or adam jones?
@Mikey boy324:
Sounds good to me.
@mrbaseball: Ha
@drew: Jones
Jeez, Stauffer’s not on my team 1 day and off to the DL, oh well.
@Steve: Dang… Thanks for the heads up!
Early This Evening…Areas of drizzle with showers likely. Temperatures around 45. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Tonight…Cloudy. Areas of drizzle with a chance of rain showers during the evening…Then areas of drizzle and fog. Lows 41 to 45. East winds 5 to 10 mph…Turning to northeast. Chance of rain 50 percent.
NY Yankees 0, Detroit 0, Postponed – weather does not seem too bad
@Elijah: Ha! Just appendicitis though.
I grabbed him For Sunday’s games (Monday here) in an H2H league because I had to fill a spot and was trying to protect my ERA and WHIP. Imagine my surprise when I woke up in the morning to find he was starting…
@Steve:
No biggie, I just grabbed him for some ratio boostin and theres 2 DL slots in that league with Cruz coming off soon so I’ll just stash him.
Grey and anybody else, what do you think about Ad. Jones and Dotel for Kershaw.
@drew:
Drew, I’m going to have to disagree with Grey on this one.
I’ve been watching all the O’s games and Jones is a lost cause.
I’m trying to move him at all costs.
@Donnie Baseball: I’d take Kershaw.
I’m sure liking the massive power provided by my Double Donkeys draft move. That could be 80 Hr’s right there.
@Elijah: When it’s all said and done, Donkey-wise, you can’t beat the original.
@BKK: wow i know, and the comments made on the message board “i’m getting the value of what he’s worth right now, my pitching is fine (sure it is, better with felix tho), and heyward will produce votto stats”
OK- its almost too much to handle…. haha. He’s panicking and Cruz is coming back, oh well…. he’ll look back on 2010 and be like damn i traded away the winning team.
Morales to the DL. Corpas sucks. Who gets the next shot? Betancourt?
@Steve:
Gotta love consistency. But I’d take all three if I could! I even added a new Sleeper Donkey who I suspect might be breaking out.
anyone think Berkman’s gonna pull it together? I’m hoping to get him for Damon.
In a vacuum, do I take Jason Bay for Jake Peavy?
@NukeLaDouche:
The whole Astros team seems to be in a funk.
should i trade javy vasquez and adrian beltre to land beckett?????? i havent been using beltre since i have david wright at third and can plug in headley, ian stewart, robot jones, and justin smoak at the corner infield spot.
@Grey: Do you know when Medlen is projected to start?
@Elijah: Donkey caught that ball on the pick-off like he had hooves for hands.
@grey: DROP schierholtz or pagan and use my 6 of 12 waiver priority on either Kearns or Bautista ???
RCL LEAGUE: i’ve got a 1 in SB’s but Jroll and Ells on my DL.
@Steve:
Its a handicap at times.
so is EYJ getting sent down when Gonzalez gets back?
Tracy has him on the bench once again tonight…….
Grey,
Beltran just got dropped on Sunday night. So with the news that he is starting to jog is he worth a wavier claim? I have the #1 claim so i would for sure get him, just dont know if hes worth it and does he have really any upside when he returns? Here is my team….10 team 5×5 H2H
Soto
Howard
Phillips
Jeter
Longoria
Grady
Pacman
Either
Bruce
Quentin
Bench Ian Stewart, Gardner,Borbon(which I would dump for Beltran)
SP Verlander, Hammels, Lester, Slowey, Sanchez, Buchholz, Penny
RP Marmol, Franklin, Aardsma, Nunez, Wood
We have 3 DL spots and I have Chris Young in one spot.
Also pitchers on the wire are Masterson, Ben Sheets, Holland (love to hear your thoughts on him) and A Chapman. Any of my guys worth dropping to pick up those guys on the wire?
@Carl Spackler:
I would say dump Borbon for Beltran for sure. Borbon and Gardner are pretty similar players any way and Beltran could be a starter for you when he’s back. Plus it looks like you have room to stash him on your bench
@bobbo: Should be Corpas, but Betancourt might see some looks.
@NukeLaDouche: Probably not.
@That Guy!: Bay
@vottomatic: It’s okay.
@Rick Dempsey: Nope
@Tony: Pagan for Kearns.
@AB: Probably
@Carl Spackler: Lose Borbon for Beltran. Then once he’s in the DL spot, pick up Holland.
Btw, seems like Friday now for Nelson Cruz.
Good time for Braun to miss a day when my Hudson is going. Good work kid, wish I’d drafted you too.
Anyone still around tonight?
Keeper League (dynasty style, keep 20) 12 team H2H 5×5 cats + 2b, 3b, OBP, SLG and L, Holds, CG, QS.
I need some power. Owner of Adam Lind (just traded for him) says he’ll do a 1 for 1.
Oswalt for Lind seems unlikely.
Greinke, CC, Felix, or Verlander feels like I’m giving up too much.
Thoughts?
Thanks….what are your expectations for Beltran this year ONCE he is back?
And going along with that, who’s a good 1 for 1 target for one of those aforementioned pitchers?
@Elijah: Thanks for the heads up!
@dsimon: I agree with what you said.
@Carl Spackler: Nothing much. Maybe 15 homers and a .270 average.
@dsimon: You should get a top hitter, and you do have way too much pitching.
Rockies-Phils PPD as well.
so then would coughlan, beltre, laroche, be better or have more upside than Beltran?
@Steve: Ugh
@Carl Spackler: Starting now, they’ll put up better stats, but they don’t have the name recognition, so you grab Beltran then trade him right before he returns. Or you give him a whirl. Doubt that he runs much because of his lengthy rehab, so you’re left with a hitter with modest power and a meh average.
@Carl Spackler:
I am amazed that Beltre is even being considered in fantasy baseball numbers.
@Steve: Two big PPD, you know what that gives everyone time for tonight – to go crack a Pepsi and JD with a Sam Adams chaser for us in New England.
@Grey: I was offered G Sizemore and Beckett for Howard. I have Votto and Cuddyer to back up at 1B in a 8 team H2H (the league is a 8×8 ), but is the buy low worth it? He has also toyed with switching Verlander for Beckett. Do I make this trade?
2nd Question Shortstop Stick with Theriot or go with Miggy at SS?
My team
Wieters
Howard
Pedroia
Theriot
E Longoria
Markakis
Bruce
Cuddyer
Votto
Bench: Span and Pence
Wainright
Santana
Lidge
Dotel
Rodney
Clippard
J Garcia
P Hughes
Cain
DL Bedard,Gonzalez
This was offered to me today. Looking for some feedback:
My:
Pujols/Andrus
For:
Tulo/NCruz/MRivera
my RCL team is 1-19 tonight with a hit by wiggy! wow
Super bummed that Slowey just lost his shutout, but it looks like he’s finally throwing strikes again. I don’t care if he gives up two runs, I just can’t handle 4 walks every game.
oh yaaa…. jroll is coming back for the next home stand and ellsbury is about ready to come back too….
@Tony: Don’t go getting me excited and checking to see a whoopie doo single or something. I’ll see your 1 for 19 and raise you a 3 for 19 with a worthless wiggy single or something.
@Real Tom: Can you handle 5 runs?
@Grey – I’m scared of Slowey… he’s like Freddy haunting me in my sleep.
He’s to me what Oliver Perez is to the Mets. Have you ditched Slowey yet?
Nevermind, that dude just took a dump on my boxscore.
@BSA: ha i’ll raise your whatever with a 1-21 night so far…. this hasn’t happened in a while, sad thing is i own youk and jose lopez, their teams have scored a combined 11 runs and i’ve basically have NOTHING from them except a run….
bleh…. on to weds.
WTF is up with all the infield singles in the Sox-Twins game?
@Tony: Hate to rub it in, but Lopez has been one of the stars of my Razzball league team…
Sorry for the final Synergy interruption for the night but I have to say a HUGE thank you!! You all helped us move 20 positions in one day.
What can we all do together in 20 days?
Thank you Grey and Razzball nation – we can’ t do it without you!!
@Cheese: @William: @Real Tom: Slowey is getting the ax as soon as a better option presents itself. So long, Slow.
@Mojo the Helper Monkey:
Yeah, its looking that way.
@Don: You’re giving up too much. Theriot
@artie: Could be largely in your favor, but there’s more risk on the Tulo side, so you gotta figure out if you want to take on that risk.
@William: I haven’t. But I’m not starting him next time out.
any thoughts all……………??
This was offered to me today. Looking for some feedback:
My:
Pujols/Andrus
For:
Tulo/NCruz/MRivera
Thanks for the blowup Slowey… I appreciate you raping my ERA and WHIP. Damn you to hell.
@Grey:
Thanks Grey. I was thinking the same. Got burned on Tulo 2 yrs ago and it still stings. Huge upside in an 18 teamer. But worth the risk?
@Grey – Is it time to love Cueto again? I hate how after he sucks for 5-6 starts he starts being good again..
@William: I’d grab him.
@Grey: 14-team H2H. Staff is:
Hamels, Garza, Slowey, Price, Penny, Hudson, Gio and Erv-San.
Drop Slowey for Clay Buchholz?
Clippard get shelled against the mets
0.1 IP 4H 2ER and left runners on 2nd and 3rd so could get worse
@Steve: Or maybe Gio for Buchholz and hope Slowey gets his s*** together?
@Grey:
My last question for the night. Once Suzuki comes off the DL, I thankfully get to drop Crapoli which will give me an extra bench spot. I’m wondering if it’s worth picking up Ian Desmond to play 2B while Beckham and Jose Lopez are struggling. Or should I just stick with one of those two for now? My other option would be stashing away one of Holland, Tillman or Medlen.
@Steve:
I would have dropped Slowey for Buchholz before today’s game. I just don’t think Slowey is that good besides that one great start
I traded him for Adam Jones straight up though so people still think he has value
Drop Morrow for Cueto?
Drop leBlanc or C. Richard for Cueto? I also have Bills, Lester, Slowey, Garza, Kennedy.
GREY or fastest: drop medlan/smoak/avilies for CUETO?
deep bench
@Elijah: Guess which RP violated my ratios. Yes, it was Clippard who I picked up after Corpas doo-doo’ed on them last night. I can do no right!!
@grey- can you rank cueto, cecil, kennedy, floyd?
I love how i start cueto every week, and finally when i drop him he pitches a one hitter
Drop Slowey for: Cueto, Buchholz, Penny, Gio, any/all?
Also, time to cut bait on Beckham for the likes of Schmohawk behind door number 1? This kid is sucking hardcore.
@BKK:
*cough* yea I was there with ya this time.
@Steve: Lose Slowey for Buchholz.
@Howie Met Your Mother: Stash Holland
@MeanMachine: Sure
@Dexter: Richard
@Tony: Aviles
@Martin: Kennedy, Cueto, Cecil…
@bobbo: Depends who the schmohawk is. Grab Penny.
@Grey – If I jump back on the Cueto bandwagon, which one do I jump off of?
WandyWagon, Ervin Santana, Kevin Slowey?
@William: Slowey
Blown save for Neftali Feliz.
@Grey: Schmohawks akin to: Callaspo, Hudson, Adam LaRoche (all as IF) or pre-emptive strike a Mike Stanton
Also, which CWS reliever you speculating for saves in a league that also uses holds: Putz/Santos/none of the above (Thornton is rostered)
Napoli or Posada the rest of the year?
Can you rank Pence, Quentin, Bruce?
Thanks, Grey!
Would you rather have Figgins or Asdrubal?
@Howie Met Your Mother: I just traded him!!! SCORE!!!
@Grey: Would you drop Bucholze for Cueto?
@Howie Met Your Mother: Sad indeed.
@bobbo: LaRoche… Putz…
@Kazmere: Posada… Bruce, Pence… Though Quentin and Pence are very close.
@GopherDay: Eh
@BKK: Figgy
I drafted a Schmohawk team
I’m starting a schmohawk on offense. Nothing on waivers. I’d like to trade for a Big Fat Slow Guy With Power (think Adam Lind). Which SP would make sense? If not Adam Lind, do any of these guys seem like sell now candidates?
Wainwright, Jimenez, Nolasco, Baker, Cueto, Gio, DeLaRosa*
1. (7) Prince Fielder 1B – cold start
2. (18) Ryan Zimmerma n 3B – injuried
3. (31) Curtis Granderson OF – injuired
4. (42) Justin Verlander SP – always slow starter
5. (55) Ada m Lind OF – has not hit yet
6. (66) Nelson Cruz OF – injuri ed
7. (79) Gordon Beckham 2B,3B – bust
I did something wrong here – since I am in last place
@Grey: Since we’re all crazy like drop Slowey tonight, drop Slowey for Harang?
@Grey: Figured…Its not like either of them would carry my pitching staff.
In my dynasty league, I picked up Holland for my minor league squad, if he gets off to a good start, would you try and flip him for Cecil? Or is it more of a wait and see type deal?
@mrbaseball: Zimm hasn’t been half bad…other than the fact that he never went on the DL and I didn’t have a roster slot to grab a 3B. Didn’t he hit a couple of pinch hit homers?? Well I got them!
@Grey Slowey has been gross. Should I stick with him or dump him and pick up someone like Medlen, Kennedy, Cecil, or Gorzelanny?
@Elijah: Guess who’s going to try for a 3 for 3. Dropped Clippard for Contreras tonight.
Finally made some room on my bench for Gordon Bencham. Trying to pick between these FA options:
A.) Rowand (hot right now)
B.) Quentin (cooler bat, safer bet)
C.) Ibanez (little from column A, little from column B)
D.) Bartlett (possible breakout)
No specific position needed, no specific stat needed. Opinions welcome.
Dice-K was dealing tonight against the Jays. Granted, the hack-happy Jays lineup might have made him look better than he is, but he was looking very comfortable and not nibbling as usual. Might be a good waiver pickup.
So Darren Oliver started the 9th and not Feliz. Who knows what that means in the grand scheme of things…
@Grey: Thanks.
While we’re on the subject, I paid $7 for Slowey in the ol’ keeper. Lose him for one of:
Cecil, Pavano, Kuroda, Cueto, Richard, Harang or Kennedy?
Rest of staff: Bills, Ubaldo, Baker, Oswalt, Cain.
Different league… 5×5 with OPS. Who do you like best among 1B for the rest of the year?
Loney, Konerko, Carlos Pena, Berkman
@Awesomus Maximus: Wait….Quentin is a FA? Pick him up….NOW!
@Grey:
In a vacuum, Victorino and Lester or Youk and Lidge?
Jumping off the Slowey wagon as well. 12 team 5×5 roto and I have Lester, Nolasco, Hamels, Peavy. FAs below, and I have the luxury of holding them a few starts because I’m about +40IP from guys I traded last month:
Vasquez
Floyd
E. Santana
Dice K
Harang
Cueto
Arroyo
Piniero
Cecil, Kennedy….. List goes on…..
@GopherDay: Meh… unless I’m reading the stats incorrectly, his .194 BA nearly identical to his .188 BABIP. He’s walking more and striking out less than usual, which is nice, but my league doesn’t penalize for Ks or reward BBs. Just curious, what’s the reason for your ringing endorsement?
@Grey: or Anyone else: How much to get Figgins? Marmol, Lindstrom, Jenks, Lidge, Kerry Wood, Simon, also willing to deal Hudson or E Santana.
Would any of Lidge, Wood or simon do it?
@Grey: Beckett for McGehee and Rausch. I get RSJ.
Slowey’s really disappointing so far. Too deep a league to cut bait, but he’ll ride the pine @Yanks on Sunday.
@Grey: Oh – and Gio @ Texas. Yay or nay?
Who do you guys like more as a spot start tomorrow: Gio vs TEX or Holland vs OAK? None of the above?
@Steve: I wouldn’t especially in Roto. If I were desperate and streaming in H2H maybe but I am staying away, means he prolly pitches a 12K no-hitter.
@BKK: It’s H2H but I’m not desperate, so leaning nay.
Go Longoria.
@Grey: Interesting offer came over… Jeter for Bartlett and Gardner
My team is filled with mummies and Austin Jackson and I’ve my lust for Gardner only grows the more I see him play.
slowey just got dropped. drop cecil for him? that transaction would give me a chance to throw j.a. happ on my dl slot too. not too shabby
@ABell: Read the previous 100 posts. Or I can summarize… everyone and their mother is jumping off the Slowey train with a quickness.
Hey I know you called Aramis a buy, but are you at all worried by the fact that his ability to hit a fastball (by far his best trait as a hitter) has gone to shit? Do you think it’s a slump or do you think his bat speed is down from the injury and bad adjustment to his latin 30′s?
Team A:
Dustin Pedroia
Team B:
Howie Kendrick
Johan Santana
Who wins?
@Scrotum: Doubt Lind’s going to get you much right now. Not really ideal selling so low.
@BKK: Sure
@GopherDay: I’d keep Holland or try and get a bat. I wouldn’t sell an upside pitcher for an upside pitcher.
@SotoMojo: Kennedy
@Awesomus Maximus: Ibanez
@Steve: Kennedy
@dsimon: Pena
@GopherDay: Lester side.
@Kazmere: Cueto
@BKK: Lindstrom should. Maybe Lindstrom and a small piece.
@3FingersBrown: I’d take Beckett.
@bobbo: Holland
@3FingersBrown: I’d take Jeter.
@cubbies299: I’m not saying to trade A-Rod for him. I’m not too worried if you’re getting him cheap enough.
@pat: Depends on need, I’d take Pedroia.
13 Team NL Only
Side A – A. Gonzo/Leake/Freese
Side B – D. Lee/Polanco/Kershaw
Who Wins? Im trying to deal Gonzo because I will lose him at deadline
After all that speculation, of course it’s Jenks for the save tonight. Glad I never bothered to pick up the rest of their bullpen. I am proving to be really great at evaluating AL Central managers’ BS closer claims. Also disbelieved Gardenhire’s claim of having a bullpen by committee, and got Rauch with pick #309.
kyle blanks or robot jones?
@*ill: B’s fine if you’re afraid of losing him.
@hayamate: Robot