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I went over Daniel Hudson for a 2011 fantasy sleeper in my head, then, frequent commenter and occasional contributor, Simply Fred caught my mind’s eye and stole my thoughts like we were in some straight-to-cable, sci-fi movie.  I was wearing leather chaps, he was wearing a pith helmet.  Definitely weird stuff.  Anyway, before I could post this sleeper article, he sent me the following, “In three minor league seasons, Hudson had 310 1/3 IP with a 2.90 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 10.6 K/9.  On the D-Backs (ranked starters w/min 60 IP):

1st in the NL in ERA (1.69)
1st in the NL in WHIP (0.84)
1st in the NL in BAA (.183)
27th in the NL in K/9 (7.91)

The twenty-eighth ranked pitcher was Roy Halladay (7.86).  Hudson was fantastic at home (1.87 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, .195 BAA).  Hudson was untouchable on the road (1.49 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, .168 BAA).  He was fabulous against lefties (2.04 ERA, .85 WHIP, .174 BAA).  He was untouchable against righties (1.42 ERA, .83 WHIP, .190 BAA).”  And that’s Simply Fred stealing my thunder!  Actually, it’s not.  He just made my life easier.  So what can we expect of Daniel Hudson for 2011 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

The sleeperitude seems pretty obvious for this one.  He reminds me a lot of Jonathan Sanchez going into the 2010 season.  I imagine Hudson will be drafted around 150th overall.  So there’s value, if he can repeat his success.  He could run into trouble with the gopher balls and his walks have been an issue in the past.  Last year, the walks were in control (literally!).  The Ks have always been a thing of beauty.  Assuming the luck he had last year goes out the window, Hudson’s a 3.50 ERA pitcher with great Ks.  Let’s say 12-9/3.50/1.18/190.  Which is a solid number two fantasy starter.  Which II, The Return of Which Mountain, makes Hudson a 2011 fantasy sleeper.

From Around The Web

  1. Al Swedgin says:
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    How many margaritas will it take to get you to be quiet, Grey?!

  2. BoSox says:
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    what 4 minors would you keep in a 14 team league

    Zach Britton
    Jordan Lyles
    Eric Hosmer
    Mike Montgomery
    John Lamb

  3. Buddo Chezuski says:
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    Grey, I need to keep 2 out of these 3 for my keeper league. Any thoughts?

    K. Morales 9th round
    J. Sanchez 16th round
    M. Garza 20th round

    I’m leaning towards Morales and Garza

  4. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Al Swedgin: I think the cat’s already out of the bag since I wrote this in November.

    @BoSox: Britton, Lyles, Hosmer and Montgomery…

    @Buddo Chezuski: Morales, Sanchez…

  5. Beau Brackish says:
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    In terms of keeper value, where would you rank Johan Santana? Between his declining peripherals and late season shoulder surgery, he has almost no trade value in one of my deeper leagues. How would you rank the following SP in a deep H2H keeper league:

    Johan Santana
    Anibal Sanchez
    James McDonald
    Bud Norris

  6. Buddo Chezuski says:
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    Interesting, thanks. You’re pretty down on Garza huh? Would it change your mind if I told you that Quality Starts was a category – cuz Sanchez seems to do pretty poorly with those despite his great K’s.

  7. Wilsoniam says:
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    what is the earliest round in a 12 teamer (keeper) that you would take stanton? alvarez?

    thanks,

  8. Howard says:
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    Hi Grey, how would you rank these closers:
    Broxton
    Thornton
    Cordero
    KRod

    Thanks!

  9. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Buddo Chezuski: Not sure what you mean. Anibal had 20 QSs last year and Garza had 18.

    @Wilsoniam: Around the 5th round.

    @Howard: Closer rankings come out in a few days.

  10. Swagger Jackers says:
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    @Al Swedgin: I agree! I wish people would stop talking about Morrow, Chacin, Hellickson and Hudson. I want to swoop in and snatch these guys up under the radar but so does everyone else now too!

  11. everybody has a number of margaritas that will get them to be quiet.

    @Grey: that thread had filthy sanchez, not anibal. too many sanchezes in here. sanchii?

  12. The Krukker says:
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    12 team, start: 2 c, 1b, 2b, ss, 3b, mi, ci, if, 5 of, util, 1500 innings max. We’re keeping 15 and starting the draft from there.

    I’m keeping: Utley, Tulowitzki, Alvarez, Beckham, Kemp, Cruz, Heyward, Adam Jones, Snider, Domonic Brown, Hamels

    Options for the final 4 spots include: Tabata, EY jr, Brett Anderson, Chris Carpenter, Ian Stewart, Ackley, Derek Lee

    – Don’t need another OF, but I’d like to keep Tabata and trade one of my guys even though that’s never a good strategy
    – EY jr and Stewart are tough to figure out given the rockies moves, but I think Stewart’s value gets hurt more by the platoons.
    – Don’t see Ackley doing much this year at all, but he could turn into Pedroia
    – Carpenter makes me nervous. He’s been healthy for too long now and has logged a lot of innings with a steadily declining k rate.

    I’m leaning: Anderson, Tabata, Carpenter, EY jr

  13. The Chew says:
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    You’re killing me Grey!! I know that I’m probably not the only one in my league that is targeting Daniel-Son, but now it’s gonna be a lot harder to get him. I guess it’s good to know that I’m on track though. :)

  14. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Buddo Chezuski: Oh, yeah… Jonathan Sanchez isn’t good for QSs. Thought you meant Anibal.

    @The Krukker: Carp, Anderson, Tabata and Lee… Young’s not a starter. Unless you can wait to see what his playing time will be. Or Young over Lee if Lee’s just a bench guy for you. Your last four keepers aren’t great. I’d trade Carp and Tabata for Kendry or someone better at 1st.

    @The Chew: Sorry…

  15. The Krukker says:
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    Thanks Grey. I needed somebody wise and trustworthy to convince me that I really should keep Lee. My last four keepers will be better next year.

    Thanks for all the work that you put into this thing called razzball too

  16. Big Mike says:
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    @Grey need a middle infidel and can’t stop dreaming about Lowrie. Odds he’s a starter (prob at SS) by May?

  17. Oregon Nut Cups

    Oregon Nut Cups says:
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    I fear I will not get in on Hudson this year; too many people hyping him everywhere yet the only one who I believe is Grey (does that make any sense?). He is sadly going to be overrated going into the draft at this point. Qué lástima!

  18. Wilsoniam says:
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    should i trade beltre to get alvarez and a pick in my keeper league? or am i going out on a limb?

    its a 16 team keeper league, and with 3b being so slim at the top, if alvarez completely flops, it prob hurts me.

  19. Carl says:
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    @Big Mike:

    He’s been working out at 3B this offseason. If he does get called up, I’d imagine that’s where they want him.

  20. Oregon Nut Cups

    Oregon Nut Cups says:
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    Forgot to mention that with all the hype surrounding Hudson, Ian Kennedy might end up being the better draft value. No, I’m not betting any daiquiris on that.

  21. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Big Mike: If you’re dreaming about Lowrie, I’m hoping you’re in a 20 team league.

    @Wilsoniam: Sure, get Pedro.

  22. Eddy says:
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    @Grey:

    What’s the secret in determing a young, high upside (Stanton, Heyward) player’s value in a keeper league when weighing in on trades?

  23. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Eddy: Depends on how high their ceiling is. Or just ask me. Those two guys have first round potential.

  24. Eddy says:
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    So say someone wants to trade away Stanton that can be kept in the final round for, say, David Wright mid-season. Is there a clear winner here?

    I just want to know how to associate value to a player when dealing with keepers.

  25. Mike from Jersey says:
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    I definately plan on drafting Dan Hudson if possible. Your lists of pitchers just show how deep pitchers are this year.

  26. Big Mike says:
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    @Grey … just a followup: Same answer if I clarify it to be Jed Lowrie instead of Brett Lawrie? And that I’m getting him at pick 275?

  27. RemDog Whisperer says:
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    @wily mo: As a bartender, I have to disagree. People get exponentially louder as the number of margaritas rises. Louder and louder until one passes out, never quiet

    I will be targeting Hudson everywhere as well.

  28. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Eddy: I’d take Wright. He’s already a 1st rounder and still young.

    @Mike from Jersey: Yup

    @Big Mike: I like Lawrie’s upside more.

  29. Mets fan says:
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    Who’s everyones breakout pitcher this year?

  30. RemDog Whisperer says:
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    @Grey: Would you consider yourself a great fantasy baseballer or the greatest?

  31. steve b says:
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    Ah I told Wilsoniam when he drafted Stanton last night in the 7th round it was the earliest I had seen him drafted.Before that it was the 9th round.Now Grey says the 5th rd?Dont know about that.

  32. steve b says:
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    my bad

  33. Alex says:
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    Im in a 30 team keeper and need some deep sleepers. What do you think of Chirs Narveson and Carlos Carrasco this season and beyond? also you think Tabata can really provide some power this season like he’s saying, is 12- 15 Hr’s possible for him?

  34. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Sorry to wander off-topic (shocker!), but need a book update from you. Did you get round to reading The Brief Wondrous Life of Oscar Wao yet?

    What do you think? Have had someone else recommend it highly to me…

  35. Eddy says:
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    @Grey:

    I agree with the stanton wright decision, but what I’m primarily concerned with is determining the “equal” of a young player that can be kept in the low rounds.

    Let’s say Stanton can be kept in the 23rd round with 3 year inflation. Clearly he can be a HUGE bargain for years to come. With this in mind, which *stud* player would you name as his equal. In other words, if you were trading Stanton away, what type of certified player would you demand in return?

  36. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Alex: I gave my projections for Tabata, that’s what I think he can do. I like Narveson better than Carrasco, but both could surprise big time.

    @Steve: Terrific book. Immortal Life of Henrietta Lacks was incredible too and now I’m reading Manhunt which has been great so far.

    @Eddy: I’m not trading a first round guy for an unproven upside pick.

  37. Eddy says:
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    @Grey:

    Even if you could keep Stanton for three more years than you could keep Wright? Remember, Wright is in the first round, so he’s only able to be kept for one year. Isn’t that the point of keeper’s in a way?

  38. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Nice. Hadn’t heard of Manhunt, but the interwebnet tells me it’s about the hunt for John Wilkes Booth. Is that what you’re referring to?

  39. Kurt says:
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    Who would you rather have in a keeper league, Hudson or Bumgardner?

  40. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Eddy: It depends, are you trying to win this year? Do you need a third baseman? I’d trade Wright in July for Stanton if I were in last place and needed to start thinking about the next year.

    @Steve: It is about Booth. Pretty meticulous research considering it’s over a 140 years later.

    @Kurt: Hudson

  41. Eddy says:
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    @Grey:

    Well this entire situation is hypothetical. I just don’t want to either sell a young player too low or get traded a player for too steep a price. That’s why I’m trying to see what player’s “equal” is in terms of value in a vacuum.

    I’m new to keeper leagues and this is the first year we’re doing one from 2010’s roster, hence all the questions.

  42. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Eddy: There’s no easy answer. If you feel like your team is dead in the water, then I’d trade five overpriced vets for one Jason Heyward. Right now, I’d be hesitant.

  43. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
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    @Grey: So, I throw you under the bus for touting Hudson, then you back it up right over my own words. Nice! :-)

  44. Eddy says:
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    @Grey:

    Alright then. Thanks for the advice, Grey.

    ****Razzmock set for Thursday, Feb. 3rd at 7 pm EST****

    This is a 14-team mock and the password is balboni.

  45. Mike from Jersey says:
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    I am wondering, how many innings are you projecting for hudson? are you projecting a big spike in k/9? Because at 190 k’s, im guessing you think he’s getting close to a 8.5ish k/9 and around 200 innings.

  46. Mike from Jersey says:
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    To be fair, 7.91 to 8.5 isn’t a big spike considering his minor league numbers, and he did throw 190 between majors and minors. But let’s say the Diamondbacks, as many will probably expect, are out of the division race by september ish. they will probably shut him down around 185-195 innings should that happen. thoughts?

  47. BKK says:
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    @Grey: Grey do you like Bumgarner or Chacin, do like one better than the other. I see Bumgarner going in the 12th and Chacin in the 17th +. Is the fantasy community’s Bumgarner love, just post World Series mania?

  48. Eddy says:
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    @BKK:

    It most likely is, BKK. But Chacin (at least the way Grey has played him up) seems like he can massively outproduce Bumgarner.

    Or to simply put it in Grey’s words, “Chacin can be a 2010 Ubaldo in 2011.”

    This is the sleeper/keeper article he wrote about him in November: http://razzball.com/?s=chacin

  49. Eddy says:
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    @Eddy:
    And by “it” I mean people favoring Bumgarner over Chacin due to the WS.

  50. KG Trash Talk says:
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    Hey Grey, 14-teamer keeper league. 6×6 (std+obp and qs), MI, CI spot, 3 OFs, 1300 IP cap. we keep 5, second year league.

    Who should be my last keeper ?

    Lince (2nd round)
    Hamels (5th round)
    Dan Hudson (14th round)

    I was thinking Hudson, but someone else might steal Lince and I think most of the good hitters will be kept…

    [my other keepers are: Youk(3rd), Stanton(23rd), Posey(22nd) and Bautista (15th)]

  51. Eddie says:
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    Do you like Hudson over Jordan Zimmermann as a keeper?

  52. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Mike from Jersey: He pitched almost a 190 IP last year. He can throw 200.

    @BKK: They’re in tomorrow’s post.

    @Eddie: Yup

  53. eltoo says:
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    @Grey: Wow. Worlds are colliding. Fantasy nerd vs real world nerd. I’m transitioning between labs, had my last day last Fri and one of my parting gifts was the Immortal Life of Henrietta Lacks. Next time I can’t get an experiment to work I know where I’m going for advice.

  54. Eddy says:
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    @Grey:

    One of the user control panel forum options is “manage drafts”.

    I’m curious, what is that? Or, what was it supposed to be?

  55. BKK says:
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    @Grey: I knew you were going to say that, I just wanted a sneak preview.

    @Eddy: That’s what I think too. I do like him though. Thursday may work for me. None of the others have worked.

  56. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @eltoo: Nice… Enjoy it, it’s a great book. ONe of the best I’ve read in a while.

    @Eddy: No idea, try and click it.

  57. KG Trash Talk says:
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    @Grey:
    Thanks Grey
    By the way, the Daniel Hudson hype been out of control lately. His ADP on MDC is like 128 and trending up (33rd SP taken)…so even though he might be very good, imo not much value there if we are forced to draft him in that range.

  58. cubbies299 says:
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    Hey, does this trade seem vetoable?

    Team A: Chris Carter ($7 for 5 years), Jordan Zimmerman (5 years, $7)

    Team B: Andre Ethier ($20 for 3 years)

    14-team mixed. Minor league system. 6X6 w OPS/Holds
    Is this trade vetoable for competitive balance reasons?

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