Chris Davis, 2009 Fantasy Sleeper
December 18, 2008
Category: 2009 Fantasy Baseball Draft, 2009 Sleepers
Okay, the Final Jeopardy answer is 107/40/118/.302/8. Do do do do do do do do… doot do do do do do do… What is Bill James predicting Chris Davis will do in 2009? That’s correct! “What is Bill James smoking?” would have also been accepted. Those numbers look a lot like MVP numbers. I’ll shave my ‘stache if Chris Davis wins the MVP in 2009. That’s right, I said it! Marcel Projections have Chris Davis in 2009 at 54/16/55/.288/3. Our 2009 Fantasy Baseball Projections, which is using only the Marcel Projections as of right now, has Chris Davis at -3.23 in 313th place. Between Akinori Otsuka and Tom Gordon, one guy who didn’t pitch last year and another guy who hasn’t pitched well since Stephen King wrote a book about him. And I think Stephen King gave up writing books to write for EW ten years ago. There’s got to be some in between with these projections, doesn’t there? Somewhere in the middle isn’t so bad. Ask Monie Love, Malcolm or lunchmeat. So what can we expect from Davis in 2009 and why is he a fantasy sleeper?
He’s a sleeper because he’s being drafted after some other 3rd basemen whose names I curse, such as Ryan Zimmerman, Garrett Atkins and Aubrey Huff. Chris Davis will hit more home runs than these three schmohawks. Shoot, he already beat Bummerman in 2008. In 26 less games, Davis hit three more home runs than Zimmerman. Then there’s Atkins, someone who might want to start eating carbs again. In 300 extra at-bats, Atkins only hit four extra home runs. Then there’s Huff… Does anyone really want Huff? Wasn’t that Showtime show enough?
In 2009, I think Davis’s OBP will rise a bit, his BABIP will come slightly down and his average will stay about where it was in 2008, the .285 range. He’s country strong and can do The Mashed Potato like Dee Dee Sharp. His strikeouts are a bit of a concern, but he was able to maintain a decent average in the minors with all of those Ks. His upside is greater than a lot of guys going into the 2009 season, but, as is often the case, his risk is greater too. I’m going to preach some caution because of his youth and the Ks. I think he should get to 85/30/95/.280/2 in 2009. When the top corner infidels are off the board in mixed leagues, Chris Davis is someone to grab. He should go after guys such as Zimmerman, Huff and Atkins, but give much better numbers.
December 19th, 2008 at 12:10 am
there’s a tone of seriousness to this post .
have the random italicized voices taken over control ?
the k rate is a troublesome sign ,
but where do you see him hitting in this line-up ?
5th – 6th – 7th ?
and will it make any difference ?
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December 19th, 2008 at 12:24 am
Now that you’ve posted this, you might want to tune into the Razzball Slow Draft in the next day or so. The battle for Davis will make the Thriller In Manila look like the Teddy Bear’s Picnic.
http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/general/boxing-ali-v-frazier–it-was-like-death-closest-thing-to-dyin-that-i-know-of-508934.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thrilla_In_Manila
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December 19th, 2008 at 7:21 am
I’ve been seeing Davis go as early as the 5th round and as late as the 12th in some mocks (12 team mixed). I’m going with the strategy of getting either Davis or Votto as a CI, but only if they fall to me in the 10th. I don’t want them to be another Zimmerman for me this year.
@big o: Most lineups he’ll be hitting 5th or 6th, don’t you think? Kinsler, Young, Hamilton, Cruz, then Blalock, Davis, then Salty/Teagarden and Murphy/Byrd. What a problem to have, huh?
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December 19th, 2008 at 7:47 am
Grey, Nice roundup on Davis. I think he’s a very solid sleeper.
Perhaps the three best movies of 2008 are all being released in December: The Wrestler, Gran Torino, and Benjamin Button. I have high hopes for each. Fincher is up (Zodiac, Fight Club) and down (Panic Room). But I think Benjamin Button will be good. The Wrestler should be great. Aronofsky is second only to PT Anderson in the category of “Great Young Hollywood Directors.” See The Fountain if you haven’t yet. It’s got a Mansell score! Apparently Eastwood plays a grumpy old racist in Gran Torino. That sounds kind of promising too. Are you as excited about these films as I am? After a year of mostly mediocre movies, this should be like Christmas come, well, at Christmas. Better than nothing.
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@big o: I agree with @IowaCubs: Davis will be hitting somewhere in the meat and it’ll be good wherever it is. If he gets hot, I could actually see him hitting as good as fourth right behind Hamilton.
@Steve: I figured you’d link to the Teddy Bear’s Picnic at least once.
@IowaCubs: re: Votto or Davis — That’s a great strategy. But in 12 team leagues, I’d grab one in the 8th round of 12 team leagues depending on how my team was stacking up.
@Shogun: I can’t wait for these three either. (Actually, I could’ve seen two already but I had prior engagements.) I’m also look forward to Valkyrie and Milk. So far I’ve seen Slumdog, Doubt and Frost/Nixon. I liked them in that order. With Doubt and Slumdog being very close and Frost/Nixon being good, but a distant third.
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December 19th, 2008 at 8:39 am
@Grey: I’m pretty excited about Slumdog, too, but I haven’t seen it. Danny Boyle is a very solid director. Valkyrie looks like one of those high school chemistry experiments that you know isn’t going to turn out like it’s supposed to but is fun to watch explode in front of you. I like movies like that. My top movie so far is probably Wall-E, and I’m not big on movies like that. It’s just been a down year, especially compared to last year when NCfOM, TWBB, and Zodiac were all great. Tropic Thunder was my second favorite. I’m expecting (hoping!) The Wrestler will change my rankings.
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@Shogun: I liked Tropic Thumder a lot. Man on Wire was great too. But I saw that a few months ago. Much better than Wall-E. Or Crap-E as I called it. Wait, maybe I called it Bor-E-ing. Hmm… I forget now. Batman was also better than Wall-E, but again that’s not saying much. Go see Slumdog. It’s great.
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December 19th, 2008 at 8:51 am
@Grey: The best and worst thing about Wall-E was that it’s like a cartoon version of 2001: A Space Odyssey and Idiocracy. I love both movies, but I’d rather see something original. I do like Pixar animation a lot. Tropic Thunder has so many quotable lines (think Downey Jr. schooling Stiller on the problem with the “Simple Jack” role), it’s going to get a lot of repeat viewings from me.
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@Shogun: I read the Idiocracy script a few years before it became a movie. It was very funny. The movie was a let down for me.
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December 19th, 2008 at 10:31 am
alex … i’ll take broadway musicals for $200 .
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December 19th, 2008 at 10:35 am
@Grey: I liked the movie a lot. The premise of Luke Wilson as the smartest person on Earth puts the precipitous decline in proper perspective.
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@big o: This witch had the help of Glenda to make her “Popular.”
@Shogun: Ha, that’s true.
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December 19th, 2008 at 11:21 am
Spare a thought for me, fellas – getting ready for a six-year-old birthday party here this morning…
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@Steve: Happy Birthday! I always thought you were older.
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December 19th, 2008 at 11:32 am
@Grey : Ha! Multiply by seven and you’ve got it.
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December 19th, 2008 at 12:38 pm
Chris Davis is going to be drafted by me in every league I’m in next season. I will fly to Arlington on Chris Davis stuffed teddy bear day and be one of the first 10,000 fans to enter in order to recieve it. I will hug my Chris Davis teddy bear every night while I eat popcorn and watch Baseball Tonight. When he goes off and has a season of 33 HR and 110+ RBI I will say to him “I knew you would outdo Mr. Grey’s prediction. I knew it!”
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@Schruender: Better get outta town before Share-A-Needle with Josh Hamilton Day. I hear he bogarts.
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December 19th, 2008 at 1:00 pm
Yeah I’ll have plenty of time to get out of town. I guess this year they wanted to spread out those two promos because of parental concerns.
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December 19th, 2008 at 1:41 pm
@Grey:
the only witch i know is samantha … who was hot ,
but NOT as hot as jeannie .
i love that “MASTER” attitude .
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December 19th, 2008 at 1:42 pm
and the outfit .
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@big o: That’s not in the form of a question or technically correct, but I’ll accept it because she was hot.
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December 19th, 2008 at 4:16 pm
@Grey:
et. al.
come on over to http://www.couchmanagers.com and check out the slow draft .
on the right-hand side on the home-page , you’ll find a listing for “current drafts” (next to web poll) .
draft # is 14974
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@big o: I saw it and just posted a question in the Razzball forum.
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December 21st, 2008 at 12:05 pm
davis in the 5th round, wow!! that is crazy!! He seems like a 9th- 12 round pick in a 12 team mixed league. 3b seems really deep this year
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@Jimmy ray: Yeah, Davis is quickly going from sleeper to over hyped. And, you’re right, 3rd base does have decent depth.
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December 21st, 2008 at 1:48 pm
@Grey: I think your giving up on Zimmerman to soon my friend! He was hurt and the whole team had a freakishly high amount of injuries. If his shoulder is healthy I take him before davis. I would take all those players ahead of davis except for atkins. also, why all the hate for Huff?
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@Jimmy ray: I just went over my top 20 third basemen for 2009 and Zimmerman’s looking better this year. Probably not as good as Davis, but good nevertheless. In 7 years, Huff’s put together 2 decent years and 5 mediocre ones. And, by decent, I mean usable, but not outstanding. His upside is minimal and his downside is gaping. He’s not worth the possible 25 home runs, average runs and RBIs, no steals and .280 average.
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December 21st, 2008 at 2:05 pm
@Grey: @Jimmy ray: The way the hype is building (esp at the slow draft
), it’s not going to be hard to take Atkins after Davis…
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December 21st, 2008 at 2:32 pm
IMHO all these guys are pretty good CI guys. I agree with grey that huff doent have much upside(last season was has good as it gets, can he repeat, maybe maybe not)…Davis has gone from a sleeper to over hyped (good talent/upside taken to soon), while Zimm has become a sleeper. I think people will forget about zimmerman on draft day and he will be a good value!
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@Jimmy ray: I agree with you and I say more or less the same thing when I go over Zimmerman in my top 20 3rd base list.
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December 21st, 2008 at 3:06 pm
@Grey: Funny you’re talking about 3b depth, everybody in the slow mock seems to think there is no depth. I tend to agree, which is why I took Davis early to steal one away from them for a CI spot.
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December 21st, 2008 at 3:12 pm
@BigFatHippo: It’s scoop or be scooped over there.
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December 21st, 2008 at 3:19 pm
@Steve: Exactly.
But a very good draft with a lot of good players, I like that you can make it printer friendly and use it as a cheat sheet in future drafts. Real ones.
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December 21st, 2008 at 3:37 pm
@BigFatHippo: Despite the well-documented delays (no criticism intended, big o!), I’m really enjoying it. Fantasy baseball and talking shit? Two of my favourite leisure-time activities.
More skilled at the latter than the former.
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@BigFatHippo: I just did a list of the top 20 3rd basemen for 2009 and I found over 20 worthy guys. Sure, a few are boring as dog balls (Glaus), but there’s some steals late Zimmerman is one.
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December 21st, 2008 at 6:11 pm
davis will be overdrafted this year, if anything.
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@Patrick DiCaprio: If he’s going in the 5th round, he’s being overrated. If he goes in the 12th round, he’s being underrated. Chris Davis aka Choose Your Own Adventure fantasy draft.
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December 21st, 2008 at 6:53 pm
@Grey: @Patrick DiCaprio: He’s the most overrated underrated player in fantasy baseball.
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