Okay, the Final Jeopardy answer is 107/40/118/.302/8. Do do do do do do do do… doot do do do do do do… What is Bill James predicting Chris Davis will do in 2009? That’s correct! “What is Bill James smoking?” would have also been accepted. Those numbers look a lot like MVP numbers. I’ll shave my ‘stache if Chris Davis wins the MVP in 2009. That’s right, I said it! Marcel Projections have Chris Davis in 2009 at 54/16/55/.288/3. Our 2009 Fantasy Baseball Projections, which is using only the Marcel Projections as of right now, has Chris Davis at -3.23 in 313th place. Between Akinori Otsuka and Tom Gordon, one guy who didn’t pitch last year and another guy who hasn’t pitched well since Stephen King wrote a book about him. And I think Stephen King gave up writing books to write for EW ten years ago. There’s got to be some in between with these projections, doesn’t there? Somewhere in the middle isn’t so bad. Ask Monie Love, Malcolm or lunchmeat. So what can we expect from Davis in 2009 and why is he a fantasy sleeper?
He’s a sleeper because he’s being drafted after some other 3rd basemen whose names I curse, such as Ryan Zimmerman, Garrett Atkins and Aubrey Huff. Chris Davis will hit more home runs than these three schmohawks. Shoot, he already beat Bummerman in 2008. In 26 less games, Davis hit three more home runs than Zimmerman. Then there’s Atkins, someone who might want to start eating carbs again. In 300 extra at-bats, Atkins only hit four extra home runs. Then there’s Huff… Does anyone really want Huff? Wasn’t that Showtime show enough?
In 2009, I think Davis’s OBP will rise a bit, his BABIP will come slightly down and his average will stay about where it was in 2008, the .285 range. He’s country strong and can do The Mashed Potato like Dee Dee Sharp. His strikeouts are a bit of a concern, but he was able to maintain a decent average in the minors with all of those Ks. His upside is greater than a lot of guys going into the 2009 season, but, as is often the case, his risk is greater too. I’m going to preach some caution because of his youth and the Ks. I think he should get to 85/30/95/.280/2 in 2009. When the top corner infidels are off the board in mixed leagues, Chris Davis is someone to grab. He should go after guys such as Zimmerman, Huff and Atkins, but give much better numbers.