I just don’t get how Andre Ethier continues to get drafted as a top ten outfielder. To bring out my bag of exclamation marks, it’s baffling!!! Are people just digging his Fantasy Fest gear? Would it change your opinion of him if you knew in that picture he was leashed to an off camera guy in a gimp mask? It would make you more excited by him? Okay, let’s just look at his 5×5 numbers. Last year, he went 71/23/82/.292/2. That’s a top ten outfielder’s numbers to you? That looks like a healthy Manny Ramirez’s numbers. Or Carlos Lee. Or how about Nick Swisher last year? He put up 91/29/89/.288/1. That’s far superior to Ethier last year. Rasmus stole ten more bases than Ethier and hit the same number of homers. Torii Hunter had seven extra steals and the same number of homers. Bobby Abreu hit 3 less homers but stole 22 extra bases.
The reason I’m fine looking at Ethier’s 5×5 numbers is because there’s nothing hiding in his saber numbers to lead me to believe that 2010 was a down year. He’s not a huge power slugger that’s waiting to emerge. He has next to no speed. In fact, on Bill James’ Speed Score, he has the same speed as Vlad “Anyone see what I did with my other knee?” Guerrero. Ethier is good for 23-25 homers and a .290 average with no speed. RBIs and Runs should come at about the same clip as, say, Jason Kubel or Alfonso Soriano. Those names excite you? How about the fact Jonny Gomes had more Runs and RBIs than Ethier last year? Pretty cool, huh? I’m projecting Ethier for 80/25/90/.295/3 in 2011. Now let’s take me out of the equation. ZIPS gives Ethier a slash line of 78/22/85/.280/4. So, according to them, I’m actually being optimistic and I’m still telling you he’s overrated.