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On Tuesday March 7th, I took part for the 3rd straight year in the 15-team Tout Wars Mixed Draft. Fueled by good fortune (and perhaps the 5×5 OBP format), I have fielded championship-level teams in both years only to finish in 2nd place to Adam Ronis of Scout & SiriusXM. It is like I am the Patriots but, unfortunately, he is being coached by Tom Coughlin.

I picked 1st last year and had an insane Trout/Scherzer/Sale start to my draft when the room drafted an unfathomable 28 hitters in the first 29 picks. The rest of the draft turned out fairly well and my in-season pickups were strong. Looking back, not coming out of the draft with enough speed (damn you Magoo and Grey talking me into DeShields) or Saves (Boxberger/Storen was brutal, half-salvaged with a Colome handcuff) hurt me in the end.

One reward for top teams is that the previous year’s order is used for determining draft pick. With second choice, I just had to rank my two preferred spots. By reflex, I chose 1st than 2nd since I have found those are the two most valuable spots (followed by 3, 4, etc.). Once Ronis wisely chose 1st, I realized I should have spent a little more time thinking about it as there is not much consensus on a #2 pick in 5×5 OBP this year.

Here are the full results of the 2017 Tout Mixed League Draft. Below are my picks and my analysis:

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Pos Name Pick
C Mike Zunino 16.239
C James McCann 27.392
1B Carlos Santana 4.59
2B Ben Zobrist 11.152
SS Eduardo Nunez 9.122
3B Mike Moustakas 12.179
OF Bryce Harper 1.2
OF Giancarlo Stanton 2.29
OF Khris Davis 6.89
OF Odubel Herrera 8.119
OF Keon Broxton 10.149
CI C.J. Cron 20.299
MI Ryan Schimpf 21.302
UT Brandon Moss (1B/OF) 22.329
SP Chris Sale 3.32
SP Carlos Carrasco 5.62
SP Lance McCullers 13.182
SP J.A. Happ 17.242
SP Ian Kennedy 18.269
RP Craig Kimbrel 7.92
RP Cam Bedrosian 14.209
RP Hector Neris 15.212
RP Fernando Rodney 19.272
B Zach Davies (SP) 23.332
B Jose De Leon (SP) 24.359
B Brandon McCarthy (SP) 25.362
B Hyun Soo Kim (OF) 26.389
B Dan Straily (SP) 28.419
B Ty Blach (SP) 29.422

Draft Strategy Overview

  • Value hitters with slight premiums on HR/SB over R/RBI/OBP due to market inefficiencies (OBP) and greater differences of opinion (R/RBI).
  • Aim for balance across categories. Avoid coming up short on SB or Saves.
  • As I said in my LABR draft review, pitching feels more uncertain than last year. Unless there is a great deal, make this the year where you invest closer to 67-70% on hitters vs 60-65% hitter. Best way to do that is limit to 2 pitchers in the first 9 picks.

Early Round Notes

  • Bryce Harper 1.2
    • So I pick 2nd in 5×5 OBP and Trout predictably goes off the board at 1.1. My rankings have Bryce Harper as a clear #2. I can see the case for Clayton Kershaw. I considered Paul Goldschmidt. I can see why some might choose consensus #2 5×5 hitter Mookie Betts here. When it came down to the pick, I could not find a satisfactory reason not to choose Bryce Harper. All the projections for Harper have him falling somewhere between 2015 and 2016 which is an admittedly wide chasm. Here is my POV. Harper’s 2016 is NOT an accurate reflection of his skills aside from his eye (which is second to Votto). He was clearly playing through injury. I do not believe that injury is chronic and, thus, the only reason to consider 2016 is if you believe he will get banged up again. Kind of doubtful but fine. Give that a 20% chance and take some air out of the 2015 stats and multiply them by 80%. Add them together. You are still looking at 35+ HR / .420 OBP with 10-15 SBs. And he is only 24.
  • Giancarlo Stanton 2.29
    • I have Giancarlo as a top 10 player in 5×5 OBP even after discounting him about 10 games less than most top hitters. His NFBC ADP is 39 but he is more valuable in this format since he has a higher than average BB% so I modeled his ADP to be 26. I had Adam Ronis picking twice before my next pick and thought he would draft two bats so picked Stanton with this pick.
    • I find it funny that, as an industry, we have made such strides in championing future success predictors over blunt outcomes (e.g., this hitter may have hit 25 HRs but he hits a lot of GB and his HR/FB is bound to regress) but can be so Baylessian on players who have had a couple injuries. Giancarlo Stanton was a top 5 player from 2014-2/3 of 2015 when his hamate bone got fractured on a swing. Last year, he had a strained groin and bouts of hip and side soreness. Am I the only one that sees this and says, “The injuries are a little fluky and Giancarlo Stanton should be expected to have 90-95% the healthiness of a 27-year old without chronic injuries?” versus “Look at his stats. He’s never played a full season! His bones/muscles/tendons are inherently more fragile than other MLB players!” They said that about Nelson Cruz until he suddenly starting playing full seasons. They said that about Jacoby Ellsbury played 2 fullish seasons out of 3 for the Yankees at ages 30-32 despite a more demanding defensive position and running style. Remember when Jim Edmonds was unable to stay healthy before turning 30 and magically becoming durable? I will give you Larry Walker but he played in thin air. Florida air is super dense! At this price, I think I break even if Stanton only plays 120 games (assuming a DL stint).  I would have been happy with George Springer with this pick but I think Stanton’s power is a magnitude better and Springer’s 20+ SB potential seems all but gone (9-for-19 last year stealing bases!)
  • I gambled that Adam Ronis would not take an SP on the 2/3 turn. He went with Kluber at 3.1. Luckily, I prefered Sale. I have him valued (based on my playing time projections + Steamer rates) as the 3rd highest SP though I would draft Bumgarner and possibly Thor ahead of him. I share everyone’s instinctive wince when a pitcher (especially a LHP) moves to Fenway as his home team but, unlike Price, Chris Sale has always pitched in a hitter’s park and it is not like the AL East lineups are as feared as in previous years.
  • Carlos Santana at 4.59 was my most no-brainer pick all night. I have him valued at #20 in 15-team 5×5 OBP as the 4th 1B – just ahead of Freeman and Encarnacion who were taken 16th/17th. While another 30 HR season may be a reach, 25 HR + 160 R/RBI + +.350 OBP make a very solid floor.
  • Carlos Carrasco at 5.62 is an example of why one has to be flexible in their draft strategy. Never say never. As noted above, I am bearish on SP this year and planned to invest more in hitting. In LABR, I only invested a 4th round pick on SPs in the first 9 rounds. But that was driven partly by draft position – the 15th pick just does not line up as well for my SP targets as the 2nd pick. The three SPs I would have drafted here (with my % odds of being available based on NFBC ADP were): Carrasco (22%), Strasburg (21%), and deGrom (93% but trending). If those SPs were off the board, I think Dee Gordon would have been the smart pick.
  • Khris Davis at 6.89 was a reach based on NFBC ADP (even my modified for OBP version) but I really like him. His power is legit. He is in his prime. Maybe some OBP upside with a year in the AL under his belt. I expect him to be a top 3 round hitter next draft.

General Notes/Strategy
I am going to re-use the same format from the previous two years as most readers seem to prefer it to just a pick-by-pick analysis. This format does mean I talk more about my competitors’ teams than most post-draft write-ups. I do my best to be respectful yet honest.

Hopefully, you’ll find some piece of strategy you can apply to your upcoming drafts. I have updated this to reflect changes in my philosophy since last year. Some of it incorporates learning. Some of it is driven by changes in the player pool.

You’ll see me note a lot of percentages about pick values. I calculate pick values based on my auction dollar projections. The #1 pick gets the $ value of the 1st ranked player, etc. Generally, the last pick in the 22nd round is worth a dollar (13 hitters + 9 pitchers * 15 teams) as I budget $0 for the 2nd catcher. The 23rd to 29th rounds are valued at or around $0.

Bouncebacks I like them as long as health not a question mark, skills/age look positive, and properly discounted.  

Harper/Stanton, yup. I guess you can thrown Kimbrel at 7.92 in there. I think his 2H challenges last year were 100% due to his knee which has been repaired.

 

CBSSports’ Scott White – new to this league but who has smoked me last 2 years on his home turf in the CBS AL-only league – took A.J. Pollock at 2.20. No way I take Pollock ahead of Marte or Madbum.

Some bounceback picks I liked: Ray Murphy with McCutchen in the 4th (great OBP), Perry Van Hook with Chris Davis in the 4th, and Jose Bautista in the 5th by Anthony Perri.

 

Category Balance vs Best Player Available In a weekly league with FAAB, I prefer to come out of drafts without glaring weaknesses. So I do monitor this during draft so, everything equal, I am taking the player who provides better balance.  

I adjusted my rankings going into the draft to goose up power/speed as I felt R/RBI/OBP could come at biggest discounts. The result is my team is bonkers on power and balanced in the other 4 categories.

Some notable imbalances: OBP – I think McLeod, Boggis, and, to a lesser extent, Perry Van Hook look weak. DJ Short looks STACKED on OBP but UNSTACKED(?) in power.

Scott White, Tom Kessenich, and Perry Van Hook look like strong speed / weak power teams but often one player switch can turn that around.

Only one (David Gonos) (un-?)consciously punted speed.

ADP vs “Get Your Guys!” I prefer to wait as long as possible for guys I like but adjust based on draft room dynamics. I adjusted the NFBC ADP to account for OBP vs AVG and that seemed to work well. Khris Davis might have been a reach at 6.92 but I do not think he makes it back to me in the 7th. I feel like I reached for Eduardo Nunez in the 9th and possibly Odubel Herrera in the 8th but wanted to secure speed. There are a couple of headscratchers but no one consistently confounded my ADP projection.
Anticipate Other Teams’ Picks When Prioritizing Get ahead of player runs to minimized getting sniped. This is where I love picking near the turn. I only had to worry about one player behind me (Adam Ronis) and we value players differently enough that I avoided getting snaked. I dodged a bullet taking Broxton with my 10th pick before the turn as he admitted to me on SiriusXM that he had him queued up. Hard to judge other teams on this.

 

Hit/Pitch Mix I pegged the room to be at: 67/23.8/9.2 for Hit/SP/RP. The room was: 67.4/23.9/8.7. So boo-ya!

Last year, my team splits were 63.7/27.8/8.5 after going heavy on hitters after Scherzer/Sale at 2/3.

This year was 65/23/12 as I mirrored last year’s avoidance of SPs between rounds 6 to 13 but went 3rd/5th with my aces. I also invested an extra top 15 pick in relief.

 

Greg Ambrosius started with Kershaw/ Bumgarner so his 57/32/11 sticks out a bit. Charlie Wiegert was his opposite – going 75/17/8. After looking at his pitching staff, it does not look that bad. Confirms to me that, if there was a year I should punt SP, this is it.
Closers I wanted a good RP1 and then get 2 cheaper ones in rounds 14-17. After grabbing ‘role’ guys in LABR, try ‘skill’ guys this time. Grab any closers still on the board after that. I doubled up w/ LABR on Kimbrel in the 7th. I took RP2/RP3 in the same rounds as LABR (14/15) but went Bedrosian/Neris vs Maurer (picked earlier in 14) and Kelley (picked in 16th). I feel better with the ‘skill’ duo and hopefully Bedrosian grabs the closer role to start the season. Snapped up Fernando Rodney in the 19th round. I don’t love him but who else is going to close in Arizona? No way he should still be on the board. Similar to LABR, was slightly less investment than last year in closers as I think that there is more collective uncertainty on eliteness and roles.

Everyone got at least one closer. I think I have the best shot to start the year with 3 closers.

 

Middle Infielders Pay no premiums for ‘scarce’ positions. Stay patient. Adjust player choices based on offensive category balance. There are a lot of tempting 2B/SS in the top rounds but my draft slot just didn’t line up (whereas I went Correa/Odor with my 1st/3rd picks in LABR).

Nunez in the 9th was a slight overpay on my projected value (more so vs ADP) but I liked the speed/SS + 3B combo and felt similar guys like Tim Anderson and Elvis Andrus would be overpays as well.

Zobrist and Schimpf are guys I would never own in standard 5×5 but have very good eyes. Schimpf intrigues me as a potential Dan Uggla.

 

Based on my projections, there was a mild overpay on MI. Maybe $2 a player. The biggest overpay was Ronis on Jose Peraza at 6.91 but I don’t mind that move to solidify speed if you think a player’s skill + position eligibility is unique.
Catchers I like to punt Catchers. The demands of the position lead to greater injury risk and more volatile offensive numbers IMO.  

I didn’t wait quite as long as I did in LABR (first catcher Mesoraco at 316) because I like Mike Zunino at pick #239. The power is real and has potential to be OBP neutral vs an AVG drain. James McCann at 27.392 is nothing great but cheap at that part of the draft.

The ‘room’ invested about 5% in catchers. I invested 2%. I think Posey, Sanchez, Grandal, Vogt, Murphy and Cervelli were had at solid value. Russ Martin in the 6th round was an unnecessary reach. Not sure I see the value in spending 19th/20th picks on Austin Hedges and Chris Herrmann when a James McCann is available 7 rounds later.
Starting Pitchers Draft quality and quantity. Mix upside and consistency. Well, I am happy with Sale/Carrasco and McCullers in the 13th round is worth it if the Steamer ratios are close and he pitches 150 IP.

I did not have many SP3/SP4 targets and just about all went earlier than I expected. Not particularly enamored with Happ/Kennedy/Davies/De Leon/McCarthy/Straily/Blach as the back-end of my rotation and will have to protect all against bad matchups. I will likely need to take advantage of my RP depth early in the season to protect my ratios. I will also be streaming.

 

Greg Ambrosius lapped the field with his Kershaw and Madbum staff in terms of SP $ value.

Based on my projections, the next three drafters (after me) who got the best bang for the buck are DJ Short, Greg Ambrosius, and Charlie Wiegert.

 
  1. JoeG414 says:
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    The link is not working for the full 2017 Tout Mixed League Draft.

  2. Grey

    Grey says:
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    Kinsler was another one that was ‘injury prone’ in his mid-20s until he started playing 155 games a year

    • Rudy Gamble

      Rudy Gamble says:
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      @Grey: good one.

      • westcoastpete says:
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        @Rudy Gamble:

        I don’t disagree with your Stanton pick (because the discount you got) but plenty of injury prone players stay injured. For every name you can think of that got healthy there are more that stayed injured: Josh Hamilton, Rickey Weeks, Nick Johnson, Hanley Ramirez, Troy Tulowitzki, David Wright, etc.

        Baseball Prospectus did a study a few years ago and found the the previous year’s injury time (in # of days) is by far the most important variable for predicting the next year’s injuries, with a 20% coefficient. Only once a player puts together a full and healthy season should they lose the “injury prone” tag.

        • Rudy Gamble

          Rudy Gamble says:
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          @westcoastpete: I reran that BP analysis (I want to say by rob Arthur) and got similar results. My formula is something like .12 * last year dl days (capped at 50) + .06 * 3 years ago + age-based constant. So my calcs say the market is over-correcting. I’d guesstimate stanton’s expected missed games vs healthy player at 10 where market seems closer to 30.

          • TheTinDoor says:
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            @Rudy Gamble: cool to see the numbers. Just a guess, but a widely publicized (and accurate) study like that is likely a contributing cause to the overreaction. People hear “injury = more injury” without? paying much attention to the .2 correlation.

            • Rudy Gamble

              Rudy Gamble says:
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              @TheTinDoor: I think it is purely instinctive. And even that type of analysis might overstate the risk because it includes guys with systemic injuries – e.g., David Wright’s back.

              • TheTinDoor says:
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                @Rudy Gamble: I find myself more bearish on currently injured players, and more bullish on injury-prone players, relative to the market @Rudy Gamble:

                • @TheTinDoor: same here! Though I have been known to gamble on injured players with straightforward injuries – e.g., Harvey 18 months off TJ, Hamels when he missed first month with shoulder strain.

          • Westcoastpete says:
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            @Rudy Gamble:

            Cool, thanks for the follow up. I think you are probably right that it is necessary to manually adjust for different types of injuries. Is that why you capped DL days at 50?(opposed to how Rob Author included all days)

            • @Westcoastpete: I capped days because I found the DL time for someone like Pollock would be bananas.

              • Westcoastpete says:
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                @Rudy Gamble: I guess that was my point. We think Pollocks injury isn’t chronic or likely to reoccur (more than the average injury) so we cap its impact at 6 DL days (.12*50). However, if it was a chronic injury then we can adjust the coefficient or cap upwards significantly.

                Only problem I have with this strategy is that it requires some knowledge of medical science, which I do not have…

    • TheTinDoor says:
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      @Grey: this was a great point Rudy. And this year, market isn’t even making you pay for healthy Stanton. Injury risk is priced in so it’s all upside.

  3. primetime says:
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    Rudy, where do I find your rankings?

  4. TheTinDoor says:
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    So your values liked Greg’s team? Or just his buys?

    IMHO, Kershaw at 10 is the steal of the draft… And then he immediately gave that value away by doubling up on MadBum. It’s not necessary (Kershaw is like 2 tiers better than anyone else). Kershaw plus a mediocre staff is going to be a solid rotation.

    • Rudy Gamble

      Rudy Gamble says:
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      @TheTinDoor: I like Greg’s staff in pure value and draft day bang for buck. Definitely aided by Kershaw at 1.10 who is most valuable player until you skew hit/pitch mix to hitters. I agree – would not have drafted MadBum 2nd.

  5. Big Magoo

    Big Magoo says:
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    Mea culpa on DeShields. Bought into him hook, line, and sinker last season. I generally like to play it safe early and then swing for the fences in the middle rounds though. Hope that works out better this season (Broxton – love your pick there, Buxton, T. Anderson, Paxton, Fulmer, etc.) than it did last year (DeShields, Liriano, Pineda – yuck). But you swayed me on Stanton and Chen, so we’re even!

    This roster looks really solid. The only real nitpick that I have is that I don’t love the idea of punting both catcher slots in a two catcher league. That position is almost impossible to find replacement value on the wire in this format. Your outfield and pitching look very strong though. Don’t mind the infield either. Should be a contender. Good luck!

    • Rudy Gamble

      Rudy Gamble says:
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      @Big Magoo: ha. Yes I was definitely all-in on WYC last year. Don’t remember Stanton shares but that might have been because of draft positions. And I was in on liriano and Pineda. Oy. You think Zunino is a punt in OBP? Feel like .300 OBP and 20+ HRs is solid. McCann has some potential too but prolly slightly below avg C2

      • Big Magoo

        Big Magoo says:
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        @Rudy Gamble: Went Altuve/Stanton at the turn out of the #12 slot in one league. I had Stanton at 17 or 18 in my rankings, but conceded that he’d made a good pairing with Altuve there. Just missed on Altuve/Betts by one pick. Things might’ve turned out differently with that start. So it goes…

        We were all in on Liriano and Pineda. What a nightmare. Threw caution to the wind in regards to WHIP with those two (though Pineda was surprisingly bad in that regard). Lesson learned.

        Zunino is definitely more appealing in an OBP format, but he’s not even guaranteed to produce a .300+ OBP. Not a ton of job security either. He could be serviceable though. Not a big fan of J. McCann, but the player pool was obviously razor thin at that point of the draft.

        If you had a mulligan, would you’ve grabbed Vogt where you took Bedrosian in the 14th? Probably would’ve still landed either Bedrosian or Ottavino coming back in the 15th (though I’m not sure how you feel about Ottavino – I think he keeps the job).

        • @Big Magoo: if I knew Rodney would fall that low, probably don’t go Bedrosian and Neris. Like Vogt but don’t know if catcher is how I spend that pick. I am eh on Ottavino – more a SAGNOF vs elite skill reliever I was targeting at 14/15

          • Big Magoo

            Big Magoo says:
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            @Rudy Gamble: Ottavino looked pretty good in the 2nd half last season, but yeah, Coors (don’t see Holland as a threat at this point). I can see him putting up a season similar to Fuentes back in the day.

            Definitely think that Gomez loses the job in Philly at some point, but I’m not sure that Neris is the guy to take over. Think they give Benoit a shot to pump up his trade value in order to flip him at the deadline. Neris could see some 2nd half saves though, and that splitter is nasty.

            The Nats pen looks interesting for cheap saves. Keeping my eye on Kelley/Treinen/Blanton. Find it interesting that people assume that the job is Kelley’s to lose. He’s about to turn 33 and has never thrown 60+ innings in a season in his entire career, and rarely pitched on consecutive days last season. I’ll be taking a few fliers on Treinen in the coming weeks.

            • OaktownSteve says:
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              @Big Magoo:

              The great magoo. How you been my friend?

              • Big Magoo

                Big Magoo says:
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                @OaktownSteve: OTS! I can’t complain. Much busier in general than I was at this time last year, but I feel like I’m more focused and prepared for FBB than ever before (cut out the distractions). Of course, I need to be extremely focused and prepared, seeing as how I’m in a league with Erickson, Hinkelman, and Strickler that’s drafting next week.

                How have you been? How’s the store doing?

            • I got $100 for groceries, $1400 for liquor, and $6,000 for you to go bail a couple of shit puppets out of jail says:
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              @Big Magoo: kelley’s skill level last year off the freakin charts. but of course that doesn’t mean anything, as dusty’s brain correlating to good decisions (or even easy ones like knowing bryce harper’s name) isn’t a good bet. if anybody would put joe nathan in there it’d be him.

  6. The JoGarza says:
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    Great write up, Rudy. Wanted to probe you a bit on advice on Stanton given that you’re one of the few to bite in.

    I’m in a 12-team H2H keeper with OBP instead of AVG. My five keepers are: Betts, S.Marte, Rendon, Kershaw and Kluber.

    For my first pick, I expect to draft one of Edwin or Stanton. Votto, McCutch, Cespedes, Cruz also should be available, but they fall seem inferior to the first two.

    Do you take Stanton and lose a little flexibility because you filled up all 3 OF? Or take Edwin despite some slight concerns about pitcher division and worsening contact rate, but ensure 1B?

    I can almost guarantee C.Santana with my 36th overall pick, if that makes any difference about securing a 1B.

    • @The JoGarza: I just take Votto. His OBP is sick. Can replace Stanton’s power for cheaper than that OBP.

      • The JoGarza says:
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        @Rudy Gamble:

        I might need to cross my fingers for Votto to land to me. I draft 12th, and he’s 10th overall after keepers.

        Would you rank them Votto>Encarnacion>Stanton?

  7. Charles says:
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    Rudy! Always love the thoughtful recaps. I also have the #2 pick in an OBP league, though mine is 10 team and we have a negative category for hitter Ks (6×6). Would you take Bryce?

    • @Charles: thanks. Yup on Harper. Relatively Low K rate for his power profile.

      • Charles says:
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        @Rudy Gamble: @Rudy Gamble: would Votto be OBP overkill at either 19 or 22? Or an unbeatable base to lock down a category?

        • Rudy Gamble

          Rudy Gamble says:
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          @Charles: i like to bank OBP early and then you can cash it in later in draft.

  8. OaktownSteve says:
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    On Giancarlo I apply the Kinsler Rule. Kinsler was probably the poster boy for the injury prone label. Then he went out and led MLB in plate appearances over the next 4 years. You never really know when it’s going to turn around.

  9. Kendrick Llama says:
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    Rudy need some help w/ my keepers: $328 budget. I am keeping the following:
    Goldy – $50
    Arenado – $11
    Springer $16
    Polanco $11
    Bregman – $1

    Need to pick 4 more of the following:
    Matt Carpenter $33
    Justin Turner $1
    Miguel Sano $6
    Dansby Swanson $8
    Carlos Martinez $37
    Geritt Cole $16
    Fulmer $1
    Keuchel $6
    Velasquez $1
    Joe Ross $8

    What do you think?

    • Rudy Gamble

      Rudy Gamble says:
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      @Kendrick Llama: don’t know number of teams + scoring. Have u checked the preseason player rater $? Goldy for $50 seems rich. I like those $6 and under buys

      • Kendrick Llama says:
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        @Rudy Gamble: 10 teamer, standard 5 x 5

        $50 is a lot, but people go BONKERS for premium players in draft. Guys like Bautista went for $55 alone last year.

  10. The JoGarza says:
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    Hey Rudy, think you missed my follow up to my draft question up above. You responded Votto over Encarnacion and Stanton in a 12-team OBP where I have Betts, S.Marte and Rendon . However Votto may not fall to me in the first round.

    Would you rank them Votto>Encarnacion>Stanton?

    • Rudy Gamble

      Rudy Gamble says:
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      @The JoGarza: Votto, stanton, EE

  11. I got $100 for groceries, $1400 for liquor, and $6,000 for you to go bail a couple of shit puppets out of jail says:
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    interesting, from what i’m seeing kelley is the higher skilled guy out of bedrosian/kelley/neris. i would believe the argument that he just might be in the worst shape to get most saves though.

  12. Scott says:
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    This post sort of answered my question. I have an obp league too but it is 6×6 with total bases. Harper, goldy and altuve are my guys I am targeting since I know trout is going 1. How would you rank the 3 guys I mentioned in my format? Thanks

    • Rudy Gamble

      Rudy Gamble says:
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      @Scott: Harper, Goldy, Altuve

  13. bossmanjunior333 says:
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    Rudy,

    Are you bullish or bearish on Carpenter in an OBP league? He was a monster in the first half last year before going down with an injury and didn’t seem the same when he came back. You Auction Values has him 60th overall among hitters, the Auction Calculator using Depth Charts has him 54th and he was taken 41st overall in your Touts draft. Would you draft him where you have him valued (ranked 71st in Yahoo default rankings) or target a guy like Sano, who both Auction projections prefer, is only ranked 143rd in Yahoo default rankings (so likely available a few rounds later), but was taken 77th overall in your Touts draft, 36 spots after Carpenter. Thanks!

    • I got $100 for groceries, $1400 for liquor, and $6,000 for you to go bail a couple of shit puppets out of jail says:
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      @bossmanjunior333: carpenter is nearly double on the OPS rater (9 vs 5), and i’d think sano is closer in OPS rater than OBP rater.

    • Rudy Gamble

      Rudy Gamble says:
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      @bossmanjunior333: I am conflicted on carpenter. Feels like Steamer is too bearish – penalizing him for injury-impacted 2H. I would draft him higher than our projections but just not comfortable enough to draft him as high as other experts. Maybe starting with pick 60…

      • Rudy Gamble

        Rudy Gamble says:
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        @Rudy Gamble: make that 65-70

  14. Charles says:
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    Can you help me model auction values for a category you don’t have on the price tables? How do you model Home Runs Allowed for $ in an auction?

    • @Charles: Sorry – I can’t get to this now and don’t have any league data to go off of. HRs clearly favor rostering more relievers since starters pitch more IP and more IP leads to more HR. Is this 6×6 with QS instead of Wins which would balance things out between SP and RP values?

      • Charles says:
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        @Rudy Gamble: yes, it’s 6×6 with QS. Appreciate the thoughts – understand the time constraints.

  15. Tbone says:
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    Would you trade 3 years of Contreras (15th rd, 13th rd, 11th rd) for 1 year of either Carrasco (11th) or Quintana (14th)? I’d say I’m an upper tier team and have the option of keeping Grandal in the 20th. 6×6 with OBP & SLG, W-L, QS, & K/9.

    • @Tbone: I would trade that contract for Carrasco.

  16. Justin says:
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    Happy snowday from ny state!

    Keeper deadline is tomorrow. 12 team mixed league ops and qs are extra cats. We play one extra infield slot and only one util. We keep seven. I always value your opinion so Im curious who’d you keep,

    Right now I’m keeping Bryant Russel Lamb Cargo(col) Khris Davis sano and quiantana.

    Would you replace any of the above for any of these,

    Salazar Fulmer DeLeon pujols gattis Brantley Desmond schoop

    • @Justin: i think you chose pretty wisely. Quintana vs Salazar is a tossup.

      • Justin says:
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        @Rudy Gamble: thank you sir

  17. Big league choo says:
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    I’m in a 12 team H2H 7×7 first year dynasty, with BB+HBP, TBs and Holds, QS being the extra categories.

    1)Should I be looking at OBP or OPS in the razz rankings?

    2)I have the 3rd overall pick (trout and betts will be first two off the board most likely).I’m torn between goldy and Harper, it being a dynasty league and Harper is only 24 it’s hard to pass him up. His Ineffeciency in Stealing bases makes me think that he might not get as many in the coming years. Then there is the drop off at 1st base, if I don’t get goldy then I don’t pick again until 22 and votto, freeman, miggy, rizzo are off the board and I’m looking at abreu, Hanley, Myers in the 4th.

  18. Blitz says:
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    It seems more and more leagues are going OBP over AVG, maybe you guys can start leaning your rankings and columns more that way

    • @Blitz: It’s something we are always considering. We have had both 5×5 OBP and 6×6 OBP in the Preseason Player Rater for years. It’d be too much work for Grey to do hitter rankings all three ways but the ‘Other Hit’ Player Rater (http://razzball.com/playerrater-preseason-hittercategories-espn) could be used to rejigger his rankings pretty easily (e.g., take his $, subtract AVG $, add OBP $, re-order).

  19. Jake DuBois says:
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    Rudy,

    First of all, thank you so much for all of your work. It’s great stuff.

    I have a question regarding your playing time calculations: Do you have any resource (your own or someone else’s) that you could point me to that would show how many games you took off each player for either DL trips (like your Stanton conversation above) or players still in the minors. My league has weekly lineups and I want to better distinguish between whether a player has fewer projected ABs because of predicted injury/call-up as opposed to being on a major league roster and just not playing because of a platoon or something. This will help me calculate replacement player value.

    Does that make sense?

  20. Johnny Spoons says:
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    Hey Gamble is there a Excel sheet download for the War Room like the last few years? I found the part with all the POS and players ranked in the columns at that pos on one sheet was super helpful and cant seem to find it this year… is that format gone?

  21. nick says:
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    Do you have your own rankings besides steamer? Steamer has Kershaw as the 4th best pitcher which is obviously what you would have. How do we see your order the most accurately?

    Thanks!

    • My projected values are under tools/player rater in the main menu for various different league sizes/formats Here is an example: http://razzball.com/playerrater-preseason-espnmlb15/

      I dont publish ‘rankings’ as each league format has a slightly different ADP and it ends up being tons of work constantly moving people up/down.

      I just focus on playing time estimates which I apply to Steamer rate stats (some adjustments for hitter RHP vs LHP PAS) and a couple of stats (Saves, Holds, QS). For every draft I do, I find an ADP source (usually NFBC) and use that to try and maximize my draft haul (i.e., waiting as long as possible before drafting players).

      Does that make sense / answer your question?

      • nick says:
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        @Rudy Gamble: Makes sense! Thanks for the reply.

        I have the 11th round pick in a NFBC draft. Should I for sure be snagging Giancarlo with my 2nd round pick (20 overall)? His ADP is 37 and you have ranked at 14 overall, seems too good to pass up??

        • @nick: That’s a tough one. It’s doubtful he reaches your 3rd pick but you are definitely reaching based on ADP (which reduces some of the value). Really depends how you want to build your team. I passed on Stanton in the 3rd round of my NFBC (extremely reluctantly) because I targeted Dee Gordon b/c my previous two expert drafts (this one and Yahoo F&F) I found myself behind the 8 ball on speed and felt I could get power throughout draft. It’s worked so far as I’ve invested little besides Gordon (Orlando Arcia, Yoan Moncoda) in speed and was able to focus on other categories throughout draft.

          • nick says:
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            @Rudy Gamble: sweet, appreciate the input Rudy!

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