Fantasy Baseball Advice

Cincinnati Reds 2009 Minor League Review
Overall farm rankings via Baseball America (2009)
2009 (14) | 2008 () | 2007 () | 2006 () | 2005 () | 2004 ()

Record of Major and Minor League Teams
MLB: [78 – 84] NL Central
AAA: [84 – 58] International League
AA: [65 – 74] Southern League
A+: [54 – 83] Florida League
A: [59 – 80] Midwest League
R: [28 – 27] Gulf League
R: [24 – 52] Pioneer League

The Run Down
With Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Brandon Phillips, Edinson Volquez, and Johnny Cueto and the possibility of Homer Bailey pitching adequately, the Cincinnati Reds have a nice young nucleus. Pitching still seems to be a problem that has plagued them for the past few years. The Josh Hamilton-Volquez straight-up trade was directly related to that problem. Then two weeks ago, the Reds signed Aroldis Chapman to rather large contract for an unproved 21 year old flame thrower. This move bolsters their pitching depth as did their top picks in the 2009 draft (Mike Leake and Bradley Boxberger). Looking through all the Reds minor league players, some of their top prospects played well, but aren’t going to be as fantasy relevant as some of the lesser prospects may be. Many of the Reds position spots are either taken by greater players (Votto, Bruce, Phillips, Rolen) or youngsters that should be given a chance in 2010 (Drew Stubbs, Drew Sutton (SS), and Ryan Hanigan (C)). Nevertheless, the city of Cincinnati has some fun prospects on the rise, most notably Yonder Alonso, Chapman, Todd Frazier and Juan Francisco. I am not going to talk about rookies from the 2009 draft (Leake or Boxberger) and Grey has already mentioned Aroldis Chapman and his analysis. Plus, I am sure everyone is tired of hearing about his “instant” ability to pitch in the majors. Um, yeah, I’ll believe it when I see it and punch myself if he starts the year in the majors.

Graduating Prospects
#3 – (CF) Drew Stubbs; #16 (C) Ryan Hanigan; #24 – (RHP) Carlos Fisher

Arizona Fall League Players – Peoria Saguaros
Pitchers – Bradley Boxberger; Mike Leake; Logan Ondrusck; Sean Watson
Hitters – Yonder Alonso; Zack Cozart; Chris Heisey

Players of Interest
Hitters
#1 – Yonder Alonso | 1B | A+/AA | 22 | .292/.374/.464 | 295 AB | 24 2B | 9 HR | .172 ISO | 46:41 K:BB | .318 BABIP | 33.1 GB% | 27.1 LD% | 39.8 FB%
His total at-bats are nearly evenly split between the two levels. There is no sense in repeated what I said in August when I wrote a Scouting the Unknown article on Yonder Alonso. Same applies today as it did before.

#2 – Todd Frazier | 2B/3B/OF | AA/AAA | 23 | .292/.351/.481 | 514 AB | 45 2B | 16 HR | .189 ISO | 79:48 K:BB | .322 BABIP | 32.2 GB% | 22.6 LD% | 45.2 FB%
Only 63 AB at Triple-A
With light hitting Chris Dickerson and flameout Wladimir Balentien playing in left field, Frazier may have a chance to play at the major league level in 2010. He only had 63 at-bats at Triple-A in 2009, so he’ll need another half season there. With his ability to play multiple positions, he’s become a jack-of-all-trades. Meaning he isn’t above-average at any position. He has a strong arm and soft hands which would translate well to left field and third base. Owning above-average raw power, Frazier could provide average defense at either left or third with 20 to 25 homers a season with a good average (.275 to .300 range). Think Melvin Mora.

#8 – Juan Francisco | 3B | AA/AAA | 22 | .295/.329/.518 | 529 AB | 31 2B | 24 HR | .223 ISO | 115:24 K:BB | .332 BABIP | 45.7 GB% | 20.5 LD% | 33.6 FB%
With Francisco projected as the future third baseman, Frazier may be relegated to the outfield. Granted, he may outgrow third and need to be traded or switch positions. He only had 92 at-bats at Triple-A, but he had 21 at-bats in the majors. The last three years (including this one) he has totaled 25, 23, and 24 homers (between three levels). Watch for his power to develop again at Triple-A and wait for Rolen to make his annual trip to the DL. Playing in the Reds bandbox, Francisco could put up some surprising rookie numbers.

#22 – Chris Heisey | CF/OF | AA/AAA | 24 | .314/.379/.521 | 516 AB | 35 2B | 22 HR | .207 ISO | 21/3 SB/CS | 77:48 K:BB | .346 BABIP | 31.9 GB% | 19.4 LD% | 48 FB%
Few players stock rose as much as Heisey’s did in 2009. With an appearance in the majors this past September, Heisey looks to be out of the Randy Winn mold. 15 to 20 homers with 15 to 20 steals. His defense (strong arm and good range) will get him noticed, as will his ability to play all outfield spots. Some scouts have pegged him as a fourth outfielder. This past year, he showed that he could be a regular.

Pitchers
#18 Matt Maloney | LHP | AA/AAA | 25 | 7.8 K/9 | 1.6 BB/9 | 150 IP | 3.00 ERA | 3.32 FIP | 1.15 WHIP | .7 HR/9 | .318 BABIP | 43 GB% | 15.5 LD% | 35.7 FB%
Maloney threw 40 2/3 IP at the MLB level in addition to what he did in the minors. Although he looks like a solid number three pitcher, his strong tendency to give up homers and fly balls make him more of a fourth or fifth in the rotation, especially in the Reds small park. He does have a natural sinking 88 to 91 mph fastball, a plus changeup, and an average curveball and slider. Not blessed with the most overpowering “stuff,” Maloney does a good job of using his talents to pitch and not just throw. Not overtly sleeper worthy, but in really deep leagues, he may possess some stretches where he could be ownable.

Travis Wood | LHP | AA/AAA | 22 | 7.2 K/9 | 2.8 BB/9 | 167 2/3 IP | 1.77 ERA | 3.28 FIP | 1.04 WHIP | .3 HR/9 | .259 BABIP | 42.7 GB% | 15.7 LD% | 37.9 FB%
Aided by an extremely low BABIP, Wood’s stock has risen (no pun intended) back to pre-2009 levels (#21 in 2008). I mention him because (A) he is a lefty, (B) he has a career .284 BABIP, and (C) pitching is always unpredictable. With Dusty Baker riding his young pitchers, you never known when a prospect will get called upon. Wood may be called upon soone rather than later if he can prove 2009 wasn’t a fluke. (He only threw 48 2/3 IP at Triple-A with noticeable differences in his statistical performance).

Ben Jukich | LHP | AAA | 26 | 7.8 K/9 | 2.9 BB/9 | 123 IP | 4.10 ERA | 4.28 FIP | 1.34 WHIP | 1.2 HR/9 | .306 BABIP | 51.3 GB% | 16.8 LD% | 26.9 FB% (career 53.6 GB% | 15.3 LD% | 27.9 FB% | .6 HR/9)
Much like Wood, Jukich had a great year.  With a better defense behind him and his great career ground ball ratios (53.6%), he’ll perform better than expected. He is rather old and his prospect status is nonexistent. His fantasy prospects aren’t much different, but each year a ground ball pitcher can come up and surprise (Matt Palmer had a few good outings, Scott Feldman had a great year relying on a sinking 2-seam fastball, etc).

Sam Lecure | RHP | AAA | 25 | 7.8 K/9 | 2.8 BB/9 | 143 1/3 IP | 4.46 ERA | 4.05 FIP | 1.31 WHIP | 1.1 HR/9 | .314 BABIP | 38 GB% | 18.3 LD% | 39.1 FB%
Not sure if he should even be mentioned for fantasy purposes. None of his stats would be good for the majors, or even at the Reds home park. Just another arm to shy away from.

Honorable Mentions
Hitters
Wes Bankston | 1B/3B | AAA | 25 | .267/.313/.449 | 457 AB | 26 2B | 17 HR | .182 ISO | 88:50 K:BB | .297 BABIP | 36.1 GB% | 18.1 LD% | 45.8 FB%
The last three years he has played for Tampa Bay, Oakland and now Cincinnati. He’s also hit 17, 20, 17 HR the past three years. Could be a source of cheap homers at the cost to your batting average.

Pitchers
Matt Fairel | LHP | A/A+ | 21 | 7.7 K/9 | 3.1 BB/9 | 160 2/3 IP | 3.02 ERA | 3.59 FIP | 1.25 WHIP | .5 HR/9 | .299 BABIP | 44.1 GB% | 16 LD% | 33.9 FB%

These next pitchers have better upside than the ones already mentioned (minus Leake, Chapman, and Boxberger), but aren’t going to help you in 2010 without a rash of injuries. He threw 50 IP at Single-A and then went on to High-A and pitched well.

Mace Thurman | LHP | A/A+ | 22 | 9.3 K/9 | 2.8 BB/9 | 79 2/3 IP | 1.81 ERA | 2.99 FIP | .99 WHIP | .3 HR/9 | .250 BABIP | 42.9 GB% | 15.2 LD% | 36.2 FB%
His numbers were mind-boggling at Single-A and only went down to mind-blowing at High-A. He could be a set-up man within the next calender year (2011) or the closer within the same time frame.

Before we move our 2010 fantasy baseball rankings to the pitchers, we look at the top 5 utility players for 2010 fantasy baseball.  These players are only eligible at DH aka Utility.  Frankly, I don’t think you should draft any of these designated hitters.  They don’t allow enough flexibility.  For example, what if you had David Ortiz clogging up your Utility spot last year and you really wanted to pick up Ben Zobrist?  You would’ve been wretched, retching on all fours to borrow from The Decemberists.  These guys have no position eligibility for fantasy baseball.  As with past rankings posts, this top 5 for 2010 will be broken up into tiers, and their 2010 projections will be included.  Anyway, here’s the top 5 utility players for 2010 fantasy baseball:

1. Vladimir Guerrero – This is the first tier.  This tier goes until Matsui.  I call this tier, “They were good at one time.  No more.”  If you’re drafting Vlad to clog up your utility spot, then you’re assuming he’s going to bounce back.  So my question to you is, a bounce back to what?  The last time he stole more than 5 bases was in 2006.  That was when he had three working legs and didn’t walk like Ron Kovic.  The last time he hit above 30 homers was also in 2006.  The last two years Vlad hasn’t hit above .303.  As evidenced by the participants of HBO’s Real Sex, swingers don’t age well.  2010 Projections:  70/26/95/.290/3

2. David Ortiz – Right now, Ron Blomberg is rolling over in his Barcalounger in disgust.  It is most certainly not the age of the DH.  Like Vlad, if you draft Papi, you’re hoping for a bounce back.  Again, I don’t think it’s coming.  See Mo Vaughn’s career for further proof.  2010 Projections:  70/27/90/.265

3. Hideki Matsui – He probably won’t give you much different numbers than the first two guys on this list.  Matsui might be the only bargain in the DHs.  Still doesn’t mean I’d draft him.  2010 Projections:  70/24/80/.285

4. Travis Hafner – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until the end of the rankings.  I call this tier, “Don’t even think about drafting them.” Okay, multiple choice question.  Which of these are actual quotes by Hafner?  A)  I’ll be fully healthy for the 2008 season.  B)  I’ll be fully healthy for the 2009 season.  C) I’ll be fully healthy for the 2010 season.  D)  My head weighs 17 pounds.  If you answered A, B and C, you’re right.  That doesn’t make D any less accurate.  2010 Projections:  50/18/65/.270

5. Pat Burrell – Unless your league has a NSFW category, Burrell isn’t worth owning.  2010 Projections:  65/24/75/.245

We have now posted the 2009 Point Shares for 12-team MLB leagues.

For those unfamiliar, Point Shares are our home-grown methodology (inspired by Bill James’ Win Shares) for rating fantasy players. They represent the estimated difference in an average fantasy team’s points if they were to substitute a given player for the average player at his position. For example, Albert Pujols’ 9.19 Point Shares mean he was worth 9.19 points more to the average team than an average 1B (closest player to ‘average 1B’ was Jorge Cantu). Point Shares are estimated for each statistical category – Pujols’ points are broken out as: 2.2 Runs, 2.1 HRs, 2.3 RBI, 1.0 SB, and 1.6 AVG.

2009 – Top 20 Point Shares

Our top 20 ended up with an even split of pitchers (9 SP/1 RP) and hitters with Zack Greinke taking top honors. You’ll see some similarities between the ESPN Player Rater and our Point Shares but we’ll point out two notable differences:

1) ESPN loves speedy players (is that why they employed Eric Young for more than a second?) – it generously credits SBs and doesn’t penalize weak HR/RBI. Where Crawford and Ellsbury are 5th and 6th overall and almost even with Braun in ESPN they are 17th and 21st in ours and over 2.5 points or $10 less valuable than Braun. I like SBs as much as the next fantasy player but Braun’s 113/32/114/20/.320 is going to help the average team a lot more than Crawford’s 96/15/68/60/.305. Take ESPN ranking of guys with high SBs with a grain of salt.

2) ESPN Puts Less Stock on Position Scarcity – Joe Mauer is #6 in our ranking vs. #17 in ESPN. Do you realize who the 4th most valuable catcher was in fantasy? Kurt Suzuki! Mauer’s stats for an OF would’ve qualified him for #17. As a Catcher, his stats were an easy top 10 value.

2009 – Top 20 Draft Values

In what should amount to no surprise to anyone who followed baseball in 2009, our Point Shares have Mark Reynolds as the #1 best value (using ESPN Average Draft Position). He wasn’t even drafted in many leagues yet ended up as the 15th most valuable fantasy player in the majors (according to Point Shares). 13 of the 20 best values are pitchers (9 SP, 4 RP) lending credence to the claim that pitchers are more unpredictable and more bargains may be available later in the draft.

Some Nostradamus awards go out to:
1) Sean Smith – the man behind CHONE. Let’s just say I was dubious when Javier Vazquez came up #2 using CHONE’s 2009. He ends up #7. Impressive.

2) Matthew Berry – It might’ve been an awkward interview we had with him last year but we asked for the best undervalued OF and he nailed it with Shin Soo-Choo.

3) Razzball. In my NL Blogger draft, I managed to snag 4 of the 11 NLers in the top 20 in value: Razzball 2009 crush / #1 value Mark Reynolds, #15 Huston Street, #18 Ryan Franklin, #20 Randy Wolf. The relievers were complete and utter luck but still…

2009 – Bottom 20 Draft Values

Interestingly, only 5 of the top 20 worst values are pitchers. (Note: If a hitter/pitcher missed the majority of the year, we capped their negative Point Shares as the lowest drafted slot – #260). This is a mix of tough breaks (Beltran, Reyes, Webb, Manny) with a few guys that we warned were being overvalued in drafts (Chris Davis, Francisco Liriano, Josh Hamilton). I don’t feel like giving out some anti-Nostradamus (Ignoramus?) awards but I will admit to drafting Geovany Soto AND Russ Martin in my NL Blogger Draft.

Last note: 2010 Point Shares based on CHONE data will be posted in the next week!

I know most of you are champing/chomping at the bit for me to finish these facacta 2010 fantasy baseball rankings.  Well, the pitchers are right around the corner.  Some of these top 80 outfielders for 2010 fantasy baseball are long shots to make the club, but they might give you value if they do.  Or they might just give you value when they’re called up in the summer.  As Kanye West said, I’ll show you how I cook up summer in the win-turr.  As with the other rankings, where I see tiers start and stop are mentioned with my projections.  Anyway, here’s the top 80 outfielders for 2010 fantasy baseball:

61. Krispie Young – This is the first tier.  This tier goes from here until Francoeur.  I call this tier, “The few veteran outfielders I’d take a flier on late, and even these guys leave a lot to be desired.”  If Krispie hits a third of his infield pop-ups for homers next year, he’ll hit 40.  And if I were 30 years old in 1760, I’d think Martha Washington was hot.  2010 Projections:  60/20/75/.245/15

62. Nick Swisher – Swisher reminds me of a just-post-roided Giambi.  25+ homers and a poor average.  What I sorta like about him?  I feel like he can hit 35 homers.  Hard to find that late.  2010 Projections:  80/30/90/.255

63. Delmon Young – The fact that he’s only 24 and he ended up in the veteran outfielders that are kind eh category is both the good and bad.  The good, his tools can still develop.  The bad, what’s taking so effin’ long?  2010 Projections:  55/17/75/.290/7

64. Lastings Milledge – Three short years ago Mets fans were debating if the organization should unretire number 41 in case Milledge wanted to wear it.  Now, the Pirates are debating between Milledge and Brandon Moss in the outfield.  Milledge will only be 25 in 2010 so you shouldn’t write him off… Just don’t write him in with ink.  2010 Projections:  60/12/70/.265/12

65. Jeff Francoeur – It’s only fair that you know that I placed Frenchy in the below tier of guys I don’t want at all then moved him up to this tier… Then down… Then up.  Just don’t want you to feel flimflammed on my Frenchy flip-floppery.  (<–Alliteration in lieu of wit.)  2010 Projections:  75/20/85/.275/5

66. Juan Rivera – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Willingham.  I call this tier, “Guys that you draft that you shouldn’t.”  What I mean with this tier, you’re better off just taking a flier on upside.  Willingham, Ross, Rivera, et al are guys that are always on waivers.  Maybe not them per se, but guys that do exactly the same thing.  If you don’t get Willingham in a draft, so what?  You can get ten other guys off of waivers that do the same thing.  2010 Projections:  65/24/75/.280

67. Cody Ross – Something about a player with two first names that always translates to boring.  If you’re able to draft Ross and hold him for longer than a week of the season, you have more patience than me.  His 25 homers and 5 steals and .270 average look okay on draft day, but there’s always someone who breaks out the first week of the season and Ross is the first one to go.  2010 Projections:  65/22/75/.265/5

68. David DeJesus – Someone save us from this tier.  2010 Projections:  80/12/60/.280/7

69. Jermaine Dye – Just when you thought this tier couldn’t get yawnstipating-er.  2010 Projections:  70/22/85/.260

70. Josh Willingham -  The best thing I can say about Willingham is that he’s the last name in this tier.  2010 Projections:  60/24/70/.255/3

71. Cameron Maybin – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until the end.  I call this tier, “These guys may not even have a starting job.  So?”  When you’re this deep into a position, you’re better off taking a flier on upside.  I’ll give you an example to explain my point.  Jason Heyward starts the season hot.  Hits 5 homers and steals 4 bases in April.  You can trade him for someone that far exceeds his value.  Juan Rivera starts the season hot.  He hits 7 homers in April.  You know who you can trade him to?  His Moms.  That’s about it.  Do I want an outfield of Heyward, Maybin and Stanton?  Maybe in 2012.  No way for this year.  re: Maybin; If you’ve been reading the site for longer than a minute — not an Urban Dictionary minute which is actually a long time — you’ll know I was crushing hard on Maybin last year.  Nothing’s changed except his shoulder’s healed and he’s a year more seasoned like that beef stew in the back of your fridge.  I’m everywhere!  2010 Projections:  85/14/50/.285/20

72. Jake Fox – His projections are over at the top 20 3rd basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball.

73. Jason Heyward – Went over my Jason Heyward fantasy there.  2010 Projections:  65/12/70/.290/20

74. Desmond Jennings – Went over Desmond Jennings fantasy there.  2010 Projections:  75/7/45/.285/25

75. Austin Jackson – Jackson is supposedly going to be the starting center fielder for the Tigers.  He’s shown a lot more speed than power in the minor leagues and that shouldn’t disappear in the majors.  His .300 average in Triple-A looks like an aberration.  He’s liable to get exploited on breaking stuff.  A .250-.260 average wouldn’t surprise me.  Watching Leyland run Clete Thomas and Raburn out there in 2009 without much to show for it makes methinks Jackson will not only be the starting center fielder but he’ll probably lead off.  2010 Projections:  85/5/50/.275/22

76. Michael Taylor – Went over my Michael Taylor fantasy already.  2010 Projections:  85/12/60/.280/15

77. Kyle Blanks – Blanks, the love child of Fabulous Moolah and Kamala, the Ugandan Giant, naturally has some power in his ginourmous frame.  He should get to 25 homers easily and the average probably won’t be as bad as you might think for an all-or-nothing-type.  2010 Projections:  60/30/85/.270/3

78. Matt LaPorta – I’m real worried about the hip surgery he had in October.  He’s much younger than most guys who have this surgery — by about 50 years — but still any time you go messing with a guy’s hip I think there has to be some residual soreness or so I saw on House.  Have to watch in Spring Training to see how he’s coping.  2010 Projections:  65/17/80/.275

79. Gerardo Parra – For Parra to get near 25 steals, he’d probably get thrown out 30 times.  Cust kayin’.  2010 Projections:  75/10/60/.295/10

80. Ryan Raburn – With Fowler and CarGo, the Rockies are the fantasy sleeper outfield of 2010.  With Austin Jackson and Raburn, the Tigers want that title.  In 2006 and 2007, Raburn put up numbers in Triple-A (averaged 18 homers and 14 steals) that put him on the map.  Then, in 261 ABs last year, he had 16 homers and 5 steals.  Even though Ryan Raburn sounds like someone that should be dating Angela Lansbury, he has some upside and Leyland seems committed to giving him a chance. 2010 Projections: 65/22/75/.265/10 <–  crazy optimistic, but whatever.

After the top 80 outfielders for 2010 fantasy baseball, there’s really not that many guys, but here’s two to look at:

Michael Saunders – Probably won’t play unless Bradley’s hurt… Oh, wait a minute, Bradley’s always hurt.  Saunders looks like a poor man’s FraGu.  Slight power, Slight speed.  Best case scenario, 15/15.  One thought, if Saunders was a solid prospect, why wasn’t he traded to the Orioles?  2010 Projections:  55/12/65/.275/15

Seth Smith – Man, I got it bad for the Rockies outfield this year (except Hawpe. Hmm… Guess that means I only like 2 out of 3.  Nevertheless!).  If Smith can somehow corral 450 ABs, he could get to 20+ homers and 10+ steals.  It’s a longshot that is predicated on playing time. Predicated-schedicated…  Get rid of Hawpe!  2010 Projections:  60/15/75/.290/10 with plenty of upside from there, but he needs a starting job.

We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere. To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2010 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team. We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway). The 2010 Dodgers Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of Mike Scioscia’s Tragic Illness.

1) Jonathan Broxton’s home and away splits, respectively — in 45 innings, 0.40 ERA, 73 Ks and a .095 BAA; in 31 innings, 5.81 ERA, 41 Ks and a .252 BAA.  Statistical anomaly or reason for concern?

Statistical anomaly, but somewhat troubling. It’s no secret that Dodger Stadium is friendlier to pitchers than hitters; a large amount of other Dodgers show similar (though not always as large) splits. For a closer, the emotional boost of jogging in from the bullpen with 50,000 fans chanting for you as your chosen generic hard rock song recorded between 1968-1992 plays probably has a bit to do with it too. Part of why those splits look so large is because Broxton is just unhittable at Dodger Stadium. In 2009 at home, he gave up two earned runs and had a 73/9 K/BB ratio, or more than 8 times as many K as BB. It’s easy to look bad on the road when you’re being measured against insane standards like that. That doesn’t change the fact that a 5.81 ERA is ugly, of course, but it’s also important to keep in mind that ERA is very misleading for relievers because of the small sample size.

2) Last year Chad Billingsley was my preseason Cy Young.  Man, does that look bad now.  Please tell me I’m not falling for the old-banana-in-the-tailpipe by predicting a bounce back.  What kind of year do you see from him?

I’m as big of a Billingsley supporter as anyone, but picking him over Tim Lincecum? Even I can’t back that up. I have to say, though, that I’ve never seen such unwarranted panic over the struggles of a young player as I saw over Billingsley’s tough second half last year. You’ve got a 24-year-old former 1st round draft pick who’d been outstanding for three years in a row, leading to his first All-Star selection, and a few tough starts cause media members and casual fans to call for his trade or release? It’s absolutely insane, especially because it was never as bad as it seemed. You know how many times he gave up more than 4 ER in the last two months of the season, when everyone was freaking out? Zero. In his last two starts of the season, he went into the sixth inning with a no-hitter and a one-hitter, before faltering in that frame both times.

So yeah, I still see a lot to like here, especially because his late-season issues in 2009 aren’t a total mystery. Billingsley fractured his leg slipping on ice in the winter before 2009, requiring surgery and curtailing his conditioning. Then he strained both hamstrings during the season, leading to a subtle but noticeable change in his mechanics. With a full offseason and a just a bit of luck in the health department, I see big things for Billingsley in 2010. Or he’ll completely implode and I’ll look like an ass. Whichever.

3)  The Los Angeles Dodgers of Los Angeles pitchers are always good for fantasy because of their weak hitting division and home stadium.  Give me the rotation, as you see it.

Clayton Kershaw, Billingsley, Hiroki Kuroda, Vicente Padilla, and then pick a name out of a hat. Maybe it’s out-of-options soft-tossing lefty Eric Stults, who seems good for one amazingly dominating shutout a year before getting hurt or fading out. Perhaps it’s two-time Dodger Minor League Pitcher of the Year James McDonald, who won the #5 job out of camp last year before failing miserably, being demoted, and reinventing himself in the second half as an effective big-league reliever. Or former top pick Scott Elbert, a lefty who’s overcome arm injuries and probably has the most talent of anyone in this competition, but hasn’t yet proven it in the bigs. Or knuckleballer Charlie Haeger, picked up for nothing who became an AAA All-Star and contributed a few quality starts in the bigs last summer. Or 2008 second-round pick Josh Lindblom, a darling of last year’s spring training. Or this year’s annual participant in the Jeff Weaver/Chan Ho Park/Aaron Sele veteran scrapheap awards (please don’t be Russ Ortiz, please don’t be Russ Ortiz).

The point is, there’s no shortage of decent options for that job, and the smart money is that you’ll see several of them at some point. Joe Torre has shown very little patience in his back-end starters, and with possible injury concerns with the top guys there should be plenty of opportunity. The early advantage probably goes to Stults, just because he has no more options and has shown a little success already.

4) After Manny Ramirez returned from his suspension for testing positive for a female fertility drug, he didn’t look like the same player.  Do you think his inability to get pregnant weighed on his psyche and he can now return to pre-menopausal levels of hitting?  Or do you think Manny will be lucky to hit .285 and 25 homers?

I think there’s a lot of angles to the Manny story. Rumors of his demise are pretty exaggerated; for all of the complaints you heard about his failings last year he still put up an OPS that would have been top-10 in MLB if he’d played enough to qualify. I also think that in the rush to damn him for cheating, not nearly enough attention was paid to the 95 MPH fastball he took off his hand in mid-July. If you look at the segments of his season (helpfully laid out here) you can see that he was just as good as ever in the two weeks after he returned from suspension, before he got hit. For about a month after that, he was lousy. Once his hand presumably healed, his OBP and SLG came right back up to usual for the rest of the season. You didn’t hear much about that because A) it didn’t fit into the convenient story the media liked to run with and B) because his batting average was just .241, and the casual fan doesn’t get how meaningless that is.

With the injury behind him and a ton of motivation (both to repair his damaged reputation and to play for his next contract, presumably as an AL DH) I think you’ll see a very good year from Manny in 2010. I’d hesitate before saying you’ll see “vintage Manny,” though – don’t forget, he will be 38 years old, which probably has more of an effect than any drugs he may have stopped taking.

5) Do you take the over/under/push on:

One – The number of Manny in-game pee breaks. Under.
Two – The number of flinches by Rihanna when Matt Kemp gets up to hit. Under.
Three – The number of mid-inning reliever changes by Torre. Over. Way over.
Four – The amount of times Russ Martin weakly grounds out. Over isn’t even strong enough here. Not only is he a master of this, now he’s got Juan Pierre’s quota to make up for.
Five – The number of outfield signs that read, “I Go Ethier Way.“ Push.