Back in late March, when the season was just about to get underway, Rudy and I decided to hold a contest where you, the Razzball reader, were given an opportunity to challenge the mighty, all-powerful, all-knowing, all-everything ‘perts, Rudy and Grey. The contest was simple in its design. Choose the winners of the postseason awards, the pennants and the World Series. The chads have been checked and the votes tallied. The results show you won, quite easily I might add. All of you. Rudy and I got none right out of all of our picks. Zip. Zilch. Zero. Less than 1. To be honest, I’m not even sure how one goes about not getting one single one correct. Actually, I think that’s a feat in itself. Now only if we tried to get them all wrong… But then we prolly would’ve got them all right.
The Padres did not win the World Series as I predicted. They finished with the third worst record in baseball. The lowly Nats and Mariners were the only ones to best worst them.
Verlander did not win the AL Cy Young as Rudy predicted. If there was an award for the opposite of the Cy Young, Verlander had a shot at that. My Bedard pick doesn’t look much better in retrospect.
You, the Razzball reader, were not immune to ludicrous selections either. Someone foresaw a Mariners/Padres series and an AL MVP of Adrian Beltre. Presumably, they are (were?) a Mariners fan. Someone else thought Peavy would win the AL Cy Young. If Peavy were traded in the middle of 2008 and this came true, I would’ve shaved my mustache. Finally, someone thought Andruw Jones would win the NL MVP. Again, we got none right, so who am I to judge?
So who did the best at beating us out of all of youse? Drumroll…
Out of twenty-two possible questions….
With a whopping three correct answers….
Bob!
Woot-woot, Bobster! Woot-woot, Bobster! Woot– Okay, before you get too full of yourself, you also put an ineligible Edinson Volquez down for NL ROY… Then again, some members of the BBWAA did the same. (BTW, don’t look at that BBWAA Geocities-ish site too long. It’ll burn your computer screen and retinas.)
Congratulations, Bob. I’ll be contacting you about where I should send the $50 Amazon gift certificate. Or comment below, you big winner you.
I don’t want to push Lou’s post Fantasy Baseball, the 1960s down too far, so I’m going to keep this quick and to the point. Something on the Wide World of the Interwebs got my goat today, and nobody, sir, gets my goat. Keith Law, ESPN dooode, alerted me that Daily Kos called a baseball blogger bourgeois. Alliteration in lieu of wit? Fo sho! Not to mention, only pretentious twits use the word bourgeois. Why the chin music on a baseball blogger? Because the Daily Kos wants someone other than that baseball blogger to win some $10K blogging scholarship that is voted on by you. (What qualifications do you have to award a scholarship? None. Which makes you perfectly qualified, I suppose.) So to all baseball bloggers out there that are reading this, take the initiative and post about this. To all of Razzball Nation that is reading this, you have but one choice in this election, Dave Cameron, who I don’t know from heffin’ Adam, for a $10K blogging scholarship. Vote now and vote often!
The Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame has spent an unhealthy amount of time identifying the best fantasy seasons, careers, statistics, Fantasy All Stars, and Hall of Famers of the fantasy era. As mentioned ad nauseam, the fantasy era began in 1980, and thus many great players of the 1980’s fall just short of enshrinement since their careers commenced in 1979 or earlier. This, along with the fact it’s just plain fun, has led us down the path of looking back in time, decade by decade, for the best fantasy players in baseballs history. We’ll be following reverse chronological order with the 1960s taking center stage today. As you may recall, earlier in October. Joe Morgan was crowned best fantasy player of 1970s.
The tail end of the 1960s is famous for its strong favoritism towards the pitcher. In 1968 the average NL batter had a slash line of .243 / .300 / .341. The AL batters were worse off still – .230 / .297 / .339 and the league’s runs scoring was at its lowest point in the 20th century. Throughout the decade, as one moves closer to the 1970s, stolen bases and batting average were on the decline, though home runs were on the rise:
This created an environment where the fantasy standouts were relatively low average power hitters with a good deal of speed. The word relative is key however, as a .300 batting average in 1968 is more like a .335 average in today’s batting environment. As we did with the 1970s, here are a few examples of Fantasy Era players and their FBHOF scores:
• 90+ Points: Only two players have ever amassed 90 or more FBHOF points: Randy Johnson and Barry Bonds
• 80-89 Points: 7 Players are in this grouping, think Roger Clemens
• 70-79 Points: 15 players score in this bucket, the most common. Think of them as the average FBHOF’er – Ryne Sandberg, Jeff Bagwell, and Curt Schilling types.
• 65-69 Points: 12 Players. The low-enders such as Don Mattingly and Jose Canseco
• 52-64 Points: Only pitchers can score as low as 52 and get elected, David Cone is a great example
The ten best players of the 60’s were all Outfielders, Starting Pitchers, and First Basemen. Before admiring this group, a few words on the best of the rest at each position.
Catcher – Johnny Bench had the highest average peak score of the 1960s, but only played in 1968 and 1969 and two years a dynasty does not make. When looking at the 1970s, his FBHOF score was a fine 68.61 and adding these two new seasons in jumps his score up to 76.7, 24th best all time regardless of position.
The best fantasy catcher of the decade was Joe Torre. His 68.6 FBHOF points is well within the range of Hall of Fame criteria and he was at his best in 1964 with 13.1 FBHOF points. He batted .321 with 20 HR, 87 R, and 109 RBI. Torre also has two other 10 point seasons and currently sits second all time at the position. This is a bit unfair though, since his best season was as a third baseman in 1971.
Second Base – There are no offensive stars here as only two times did a second bagger record 10-points in the entire decade. In 1961 as a rookie, Jake Wood stole 30 bases and scored 96 runs amassing 12.0 FBHOF points in the process. Two years later, Tony Taylor batted .281 with 102 runs scored for exactly 10.0 FBHOF points. Neither had noteworthy fantasy careers however, and the prize for best of the decade falls to Don Buford. While never a star, he did have four seasons of 7.7 or more points and his peak 5-year average of 7.5 points is easily best in the decade.
Third Base – No player at the hot corner meets FBHOF requirements but Ron Santo comes awfully close. The life long Chicagoan scored between 10.9 and 12.5 FBHOF points each year between 1963 and 1968, with an overall score of 63.6, 5th best all time from what we’ve investigated. He was routinely capable of 30 HR, 100 RBI, and 90 Runs Scored.
Shortstop – While not as weak of a position as their middle infield counterparts, the shortstops of the 1960’s weren’t very good either. The best of them was Maury Wills, he of the best fantasy stolen base seasons ever.
Closer – 32 saves was the highest recorded in a single season, and Hoyt Wilhem reached 152 on the decade.
Top-10 Players of the 1960s
10. Bob Gibson, SP
Peak Avg in Decade: 12.9
Overall FBHOF Points: 71.6
Though still great at the start of the 1970s, Gibson turned in his finest work between 1966 and 1969. In total, the pitcher had seven 10+ FBHOF points seasons, tied for 5th best we’ve seen. He recorded the 6th best pitching season of the decade in 1968 – 22 W, 0.85 WHIP, 1.12 ERA, 268 K.
9. Jim Bunning, SP
Peak Avg in Decade: 13.0
Overall FBHOF Points: 68.5
Bunning won at least 17 games six times between 1961 and 1967 and was incredible during the last two in which he averaged 18 W, 1.02 WHIP, 2.35 ERA, and 252 K’s
8. Orlando Cepeda, 1B
Peak Avg in Decade: 13.6
Overall FBHOF Points: 72.2
Went .311 with 46 HR, 105 R, 146 RBI, and 12 SB in 1961. Averaged a very good 31 HR, 93 R, 105 RBI, and .315 Average in his next best four years.
7. Don Drysdale, SP
Peak Avg in Decade: 13.8
Overall FBHOF Points: 71.7
Had three 14+ FBHOF seasons between 1960 and 1964. During these three years he averaged 19 W, 1.05 WHIP, 2.62 ERA, 238 K’s. During the decade Drysdale won 18 or more games four times; had an ERA under 3.00 seven times, and a WHIP better 1.20 eight times.
6. Lou Brock, OF
Peak Avg in Decade: 3.9
Overall FBHOF Points: 83.1
His career spanned 18 years and was very good in both the 1960’s and 1970s. In the earlier part of his baseball life from 1962 to 1969 he totaled 89.2 FBHOF points, and ended his career in 1979 with an additional 85.6 FBHOF points. Between 1964 and 1974 he recorded at least 10 FBHOF points per season for 11 straight seasons. 1967 was his finest – .299 AVG, 113 R, 21 HR, 76 RBI, 52 SB.
5. Juan Marichal, SP
Peak Avg in Decade: 14.8
Overall FBHOF Points: 79.4
A devastating pitcher in both 1963 and 1965, but was only an elite fantasy pitcher for a total of 5 seasons. His 5 year peak ranks 6th all time among starters, during this stretch he averaged 23 W, 1.00 WHIP, 2.29 ERA, and 225 K’s.
4. Frank Robinson
Peak Avg in Decade: 15.5
Overall FBHOF Points: 80.1
Played from 1956 through 1976 but his greatest seasons came in the 1960s. They are prolific enough to admire individually:
3. Willie Mays
Peak Avg in Decade: 16.4
Overall FBHOF Points: 88.5
Only two batters since the 1960s have recorded 5 seasons of 15.5 FBHOF points. Given that Mays’ career started in 1951 and has five Top-5 MVP seasons during the decade, it is safe to assume he’ll end up with more. His power was awesome, reaching 40+ home runs four times in the 1960s. Two others matched this accomplishment, but Harmon Killebrew batted .267 and Hank Aaron is next up on this list.
2. Hank Aaron
Peak Avg in Decade: 16.8
Overall FBHOF Points: 92.9
Aaron is the new single season record holder for most FBHOF Points in a season for a batter. In 1963 he went .319 with 121 R, 44 HR, 130 RBI, and 31 SB for 19.7 FBHOF points. He had eight additional seasons of 14 or more FBHOF points, reaching the 30-HR plateau an incredible eleven times. Like Mays, Aaron too had his share of great seasons in the unexplored 1950s and both have a great chance at being named the greatest fantasy player that ever lived when all is said and done.
1. Sandy Koufax
Peak Avg in Decade: 17.5
Overall FBHOF Points: 89.1
In 1994 Greg Maddux was masterful, and few pitchers have dominated batters as often and as easily as he did. In 202 innings batters were held to a .502 OPS (.207 / .243 / .259) and routinely looked silly getting bad wood on the ball. His ERA was 1.56 and his WHIP 0.90, only Doc Gooden had a better ERA during the fantasy era and nobody topped his WHIP until Pedro Martinez in 2000. The Mad Dog, in a strike shortened season, gave up 3 runs or less in 24 of his 25 starts (13 of which were 1 run or less).
He was unhittable. From a fantasy standpoint, the only knock on his season was a relatively low 156 strikeouts. This mattered little in real-life, but this K/9 rate of “just” 6.95 did hold back his fantasy scoring.
Keep this season in the back of your mind. Now picture the same thing only with the pitcher punching out 382 batters, almost two and half times as many, then picture that same pitcher doing it three times in four years.
Sandy Koufax’s FBHOF score surpassed 20 points, a new record in and of itself, three times – in 1963, 1965, and 1966. His fantasy lines:
No player in fantasy history (that we’ve seen) has been remotely as good as Koufax during their three year peaks. The Top-10 three year peak scores:
20.8 – Sandy Koufax
17.9 – Randy Johnson
17.5 – Hank Aaron
17.3 – Pedro Martinez
17.1 – Alex Rodriguez
17.0 – Joe Morgan
16.8 – Greg Maddux
16.7 – Frank Robinson
16.7 – Willie Mays
16.6 – Steve Carlton
If you don’t know the name Matt Wieters, you will. No, he’s not the guy that just moved in next door that feeds pigeons, pigeons that then sit around all day on the telephone wires and crap all over your car. Though I do know that guy, and he simultaneously sucks and blows. Matt Wieters is not that guy, he’s the Minor League rookie catcher for the Baltimore Orioles. He’s the rookie catcher that could make a Geovany Soto-like impact on fantasy leagues in 2009. He’s the rookie catcher that is being compared to Mike Piazza and not because Belle and Sebastian wrote a song about him. He’s also the rookie catcher that hasn’t played above Double-A. So why all the hype about Wieters? Can he help your fantasy baseball team in 2009?
In 61 games and 208 at-bats of Double-A, Wieters went 12/51/.365. Zoinks! The numbers get even more delicious the further you dig, rookie prospector. An OBP of .460 — an OPS of 1085. Okay, now that you prolly want to have Wieters’s baby like Arod would carry Madonna’s, time to bring you back to earth. No, Earth is polluted! Sorry, but Mike Piazza and Geovany Soto are the exceptions to the rule for rookie catchers. In 2008, Geovany Soto went 66/23/86/.285. While those are great numbers for a rookie and incredible numbers for a rookie catcher, they are still only 66/23/86/.285. Those numbers only placed him 91st on our player rater while ranking 5th on the top 20 catchers for 2008 list. So what I’m saying is, even the best rookie catchers are only so good for fantasy baseball. Bill James projected Wieters to hit 24 home runs in 2009. You don’t argue with Bill James — you disagree then Bill waves his pinkie finger and you fall to the ground, temporarily paralyzed — but 24 home runs is very optimistic. (In all fairness, James’s numbers do change depending on expected playing time.) If Wieters makes the club out of spring training and he seems to be handling major league pitching, my recommendation is to pursue Wieters as a late round sleeper. But just remember, for every Geovany Soto, there’s always a Saltamochachino.
If Sergio Valente were a person and not just a clothing brand name and if he played fantasy baseball and owned Garrett Atkins in 2008, he might’ve said, “Garrett Atkins, you looks like craps. You know that?” (Valente talks with a bit of an accent.) Valente was right with his fictitious assessment. Atkins did “looks” like “craps” in 2008. But 2008 was sooooo last year like Joaquin Phoenix’s acting career. Let’s look at 2009. Can Atkins turn around on a fastball in 2009? Can Atkins stick in the third spot in the Rockies order now that Holliday’s gone? Will Atkins even stay with the Rockies? Does Atkins have too much pepper on his paprikash? Not to repeat, but to answer. Atkins numbers for 2008 look like this 86/21/99/.286/1 or as I like to call those stats, “Injured Scott Rolen Numbers.” But what about Atkins in 2009? Can’t a brother get a second chance? I suppose. (God, knows I’m willing to give Alex Rios a second chance in 2009.) As I said in our Fantasy Baseball Forums, “Atkins is a 17/80 player outside of Coors and he could get traded. There’s lots of third basemen that would be an upgrade over him even if he stays in Coors. He’s more the player he was in 2008 than he was in 2006.” And that’s me quoting me! I go on to talk about how his OPS keeps dipping and his Away OPS is the “craps.” In certain situations, Atkins may be a keeper for you (think real deep leagues where you have limited choices), but, for most, Atkins is not a fantasy baseball keeper for 2009. Anyway, here’s some more keepers or players to not keep for your fantasy baseball team in 2009:
KEEP
Aaron Hicks – This is a very deep league keeper, but I just had to write his name. Aaron Hicks…. Look at that, I just wrote it again. It may not be until 2010 or even 2011, but in deep leagues that holds minor leaguers, Aaron Hicks is a keeper. He’s going to be a young Daryl Strawberry (minus the coke), according to Baseball America. (They didn’t mention the coke part.)
Logan Morrison – Logan Morrison is a raw, powerful first baseman. Member how the Marlins shipped off Jacobs to make room for Cantu? Well, don’t expect Cantu to stay around that long. His salary might go above one million at some point. Marlins have no problem promoting people so keep your eye on Morrison for 2009, and, in deep keeper leagues, he’s a good one to hold onto.
DON’T KEEP
Michael Young – As far as empty average doodes go, Young isn’t that bad. Then again, a sudden heart attack isn’t a bad way to die either, but you’re still dead if you catch my drift.
