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…Or How I Learned to Stop Loving Pronk as He Bombed. As The Three Stooges may have said, we’re here for the yucks. These draft busts are compliments of Rudy Gamble’s fantasy baseball player rater. I’m simply his servant relaying you some information, but if you ask me to carry the piss bucket, it’s a no-go.  For these 20 draft busts, I took Expected Point Shares and Actual Point Shares and found the schmohawk hitters with the biggest difference. It ain’t rocket science, ya’ll. It’s fantasy baseball. Now some of the busts were so, um, busty that they didn’t even show up on Rudy Gamble’s Point Shares because he dropped all of the schmohawks that didn’t have over 377 at-bats. So will this draft bust list be without Hafner and Victor Martinez? Nope, I got the master Point Shares list — oh, snap! — and added in some schmohawks. In each entry you’ll find the Average Draft Position (ADP) from Mock Draft Central and the Forget the Plunger, Call the Plumber (FPCP) metric, which I made up to illustrate how badly these fantasy baseball hitters messed up your team. Anyway, here’s the 20 biggest draft busts of 2008, the hitters:

20. Rafael Furcal – His one saving grace was his relative quick exit. One real solid month and goodbye. Other than clogging up your DL spot for a bit, his bust is Linda Hamilton-like. ADP, 78 — FPCP, .4

19. Jorge Posada – He’s a catcher that people were warning you against drafting, so you should’ve known better. ADP, 91 — FPCP, 1.8

18. Andruw Jones – Again, doesn’t hurt as much as some because you should’ve known not to draft him. ADP, 100 — FPCP, 2.9

17. Khalil Greene – Khalil Greene is the lowest drafted guy on this list, but his ugliness made it necessary. ADP, 191 — FPCP, 3.3

16. Eric Byrnes – Every ‘pert, including me, warned you in the preseason of an impending bust for Byrnes, so his bust feels a bit easier to swallow — like it’s lactating. Though he was still a hustling piece of crap while he was playing. ADP, 52 — FPCP, 4.1

15. Gary Sheffield – Bad temper + no roids = Old cranky dude who can’t stay healthy or hit with power. ADP, 86 — FPCP, 4.2

14. Jimmy Rollins – I tried to warn people against hoping for a repeat MVP campaign, but even I didn’t envision him hitting only 11 home runs. Micah Owings could’ve hit 11 home runs in Citizen’s Bank. ADP, 6 — FPCP, 5.7

13. Prince Fielder – He ended earning the most Point Shares on this list. He still fell way short of predicted value. He would’ve been worth drafting 40th not 11th. ADP, 11 — FPCP, 6.2

12. Hideki Matsui – Hideki loves porn and this year he left his owners feeling like jerk offs. ADP, 88 — FPCP, 7.0

11. Paul Konerko – Drafted on average 84th as he sprinkled one week of value between six months of weak. ADP, 84 — FPCP, 8.7

10. Carlos Guillen – I ain’t down with Guillen because of what he offers even in a good year. This year’s blowout was not a good year. ADP, 49 — FPCP, 10.2

9. Jeff Francoeur – I drafted Frenchy right in front of Josh Hamilton in one league. Now Frenchy will be the one player I will never draft again. Every year one player gets this distinction and this year Francoeur earns the badge of dishonor. ADP, 101 — FPCP, 11.4

8. Robinson Cano – This one hurts more than some because I really believed that Cano would turn it around in the 2nd half. *sniffles* It still hurts. ADP, 64 — FPCP, 13.1

7. Ryan Zimmerman – And the pain from Cano has worn off already. It actually feels good to see this schmohawk here. Schadenfreude! ADP, 89 — FPCP, 15.9

6. Chone Figgins – 34 steals is what you wanted. 72/1/22/.276 is not. ADP, 53 — FPCP, 16.0

5. Victor Martinez – With an average draft position of 29, anyone that drafted Victor Martinez probably felt like they were the catcher for the Riker’s Island softball team.  ADP, 29 — FPCP, 17.3

4. Travis Hafner – The pride of North Dakota remains Roger Maris and Angie Dickinson. You wanted a bit more from Pronk than 5 home runs and a .197 average. The best thing Hafner did all year was go on the DL the better part of the season.  If only Hafner would’ve dropped his big melon head on V-Mart in spring training, you could’ve avoided drafting either of them. ADP, 44 — FPCP, 17.7

3. David Ortiz – In 2008, Big Papi was like a big teddy bear of suck. He was drafted on average 17th and he gave you the value of a player drafted 227th. To quote the late great Curly Howard, “Yuck, yuck, yuck.” ADP, 17 — FPCP, 18.9

2. Troy Tulowitzki – I had a Polish friend growing up whose father would shovel snow in socks and flip-flops. Was it because he was impervious to cold or he didn’t own boots? I have no idea. It might have been the booze. Either way, I like to think it was because the Poles are hard-working and he was proving a point to his lazy American neighbors. With this season, Tulo disgraced himself and all of the Poles. ADP, 45 — FPCP 19.3

1. Carl Crawford – In May in one league, I traded Crawford for Braun. Phew. Crawford needs a good punch in the mouth for all of the fantasy teams he ruined this year. Somebody give Brett Myers a call. ADP, 15 — FPCP, 19.7

87 Responses

  1. Baron Von Vulturewins

    BaronVonVulturewins says:
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    Here I assumed I’d have, like, 18 of the top 20 busts on my team this year, and I only drafted three: Frenchy, Zim and Furcal.

    Skimming through the list, I wonder if there are patterns to be discerned; i.e. ways to avoid future busts. For example: Byrnes was on everyone’s preseason bust list, as being wildly overvalued at best, so if he “byrned” you, you had to know what you were buying.

    Similarly, Andruw Jones was one of those so-smart-its-dumb picks, where people figured his value had cratered and he’d be a bargain. (Remember how many people applauded the Dodgers for their “smart” cheap pick-up of him in the off-season?) Why he’s a bust is still a mystery; that he is a bust was not a surprise.

    Posada? Guillen? (Even Maggs, though he’s not on here.) You pay for the outlier career year, ya takes yer chances.

    Some of these were Injury Busts: Tulo, Martinez, Ortiz, to a certain point. (Though watching the Sawx go down to the Rays, I had to think we were seeing not only the birth of the Post-Manny Sox, but also the post-Papi, post-Varitek Sox. This team is young, and good, but it’s got to be reborn in some way, the way the Braves consistently were in the 90s. Not sure if Bay and Drew will/should be part of that; Youk, Pedroia, Lester definitely are.)

    And Rollins and Fielder are classic examples of paying for last year’s stats and getting this year’s stats. Jimmy Rollins should never have been a first-round pick. And very few hitters are capable of back-to-back 50 HR seasons, post-roids. (Or, for that matter, post-meat.) .276/34/102 is a pretty good season — it’s just not a top-ten season. This is the tricky thing, though — picking next year’s first-rounders, not last year’s.

    As for Sheffield, Konerko and Pronk: This is why I (to my detriment) avoid the oldsters. Every player is great, until he is good, until he is bad. And oldsters get bad, fast. One of the worst mistakes you can make in fantasy is looking at a 32-year-old whose HRs dropped off four years in a row, and instead of thinking, “Whee! Downward curve!” you think “Hey, he hit 41 HRs three seasons ago — bargain time, suckers!”

    Yes, this means you will never believe in, and thus miss out on, a bounceback season like Delgado had this year. Don’t fret it. Take one Oldster flyer but invest heavily in the Youth. I believe the children are our future. Teach them well and let them lead the way.

    Which brings us to Frenchy, Zim and Cano. I think (and not just cause I drafted two of three, and thought about buy-lowing the third) these were unforeseeable busts. However, they were also speculative picks. I drafted Frenchy not for what he did in ’07 but for the breakout I envisioned in ’08. I also pushed all-in on a flush draw once. Sometimes you hit the flush. Most times you get flushed.

  2. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @BaronVonVulturewins: re: Byrnes — Yup, that’s why I ranked him so low on the Bust list, but he still ended up hurting some people if his ADP was 52. (Though I’m not sure who actually drafted him in the fifth round.)

    re: Jones — I’m guilty of thinking in March that Jones may now be so undervalued that he’s value again.

    re: Guillen — I agree with you, but again he was drafted at 49 on average. Me and you knew better, obviously a lot of people did not.

    re: Posada — Drafted 91 — So he hurt some people out there. Again, not me.

    re: Mags — Decent omission.

    re: Tulo — He would’ve been lower if he was simply an injury bust. Because he still got 377 ABs, he hurt you in your lineup too.

    re: Ortiz — I don’t think he’s a natural bounce back candidate and Sox fans should be worried.

    re: Pronk — He’s supposedly not old. Well, now he is.

    re: Sheffield and Konerko — Fair enough and nice Whitney tribute.

    re: Frenchy and Cano hurt me badly, as well. I’m going back to Cano in 09. Frenchy, we’re done.

  3. Baron Von Vulturewins

    BaronVonVulturewins says:
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    @Grey: Frenchy really was a mystery.

    However, my guess is that the general post-mortem on his season will be: This was a very young hitter (24) with obvious flaws (terrible patience) who everyone thought would take a step forward. Instead he took a step back. When you think about it, it’s not that surprising that someone can get worse rather than better, if their flaws get more pronounced, rather than fixed. (Not everyone can fix their flaws.)

    Still, when he does it on your team, it blows.

    He’s still young enough that he could bounce back and be good, but I’m done with him too.

  4. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @BaronVonVulturewins: Yup, the warning signs were there for all of these guys. Why would I recommend Pronk ever? Was I drunk? In a Funk? Hey, I’m like Bruce Willis in The Sixth Sense when he was doing Dr. Seuss.

  5. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Grey: Actually, there wasn’t warning signs for all of them. But a bunch.

  6. BigFatHippo says:
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    @Grey: If memory seves me correctly, the biggest bust of the 79 season was Morganna.

  7. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @BigFatHippo: And 80, 81, 82, 83, 84, 86, 87 and 88. Dolly had a brief run there in ’85.

    Getting ready for the game?

  8. BigFatHippo says:
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    @Grey: By getting ready do you mean is there a beer open and ESPN on the 42″ plasma?

    Then yes, yes I am.

  9. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @BigFatHippo: Nice. I picture a Budweiser. Am I right?

  10. BigFatHippo says:
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    Dickie V says Rays fever is going crazy in the bay. Baby!

    WTF? I guess he’s the 3rd fan.

  11. BigFatHippo says:
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    @Grey: Coors Light, I don’t cowtow to the St Louis Mafia. I’m a rebel baby!

  12. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @BigFatHippo: Ugh, I know. Dickie V. kinda makes me not want to root for the Ray.

  13. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @BigFatHippo: Coors and Broncos? You’re a brave man talking like that in the Bootheel. BTW, are they starting the game at 9 EST? MLB does all it can to ruin the sport.

  14. BigFatHippo says:
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    @Grey: You know, it’s funny. 20 years ago Dickie V was all the rage, now he just grates on your nerves.

    I shouldn’t be that way cause he really hasn’t changed much but his schtick just got old.

    Incidentally, I ordered the Philly cheesesteak from Domino’s for lunch. Didn’t do it on purpose and didn’t put the coincidence together till just now, does this mean I’m a closet Philly Phanatic?

  15. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @BigFatHippo: I think it just means you have good taste in crappy food. And there was no sting ray on the Domino’s menu.

  16. BigFatHippo says:
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    @Grey: It was either that or fresh road kill. But I won’t go down County Road 435 on my 22′s. It’s all gravel.

  17. BigFatHippo says:
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    BTW, love the Dr Strangelove reference to Pronk. Am I the only one that gets these things?

  18. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @BigFatHippo: I do try and throw something in for your age demographic.

  19. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @BigFatHippo: Ok, I got chills during the opening.

  20. BigFatHippo says:
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    @Grey: I’ll take that as a compliment, not ass kissing to avoid an age discrimination lawsuit.

    Now get off my lawn.

  21. BigFathippo says:
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    @Grey: The opening? Pregame on already? What channel is it on?

  22. BigFatHippo says:
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    Never mind found it. Fox, dur. Thought it started at 7:30

  23. BigFatHippo says:
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    Those aren’t the Backstreet Boys.

  24. BigFathippo says:
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    @Grey: Oh yeah, they got old too.

    Get confused sometimes. Also mixed up my ex-lax with my Prozac. I can’t get off the toilet, but I feel pretty good about it! :)

  25. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Leave us old-timers alone.

  26. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: @BigFathippo: Okay, so are we all going for the Rays?

    @Steve: Do you have the game there?

  27. Steve says:
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    @Grey: (Taps hearing aid, says ‘What was that, sonny?’, then re-adjusts ear trumpet) Yup – game is on here. As a neutral, the Rays are the only choice, really.

    That said, I actually don’t mind who wins, but I’m going for the Rays.

  28. BigFatHippo says:
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    @Grey: We’ve come this far, why not?

    At least TB has a St Louis connection, Silent George is one of the coaches and Joe Magrane is their tv announcer. Just found that out today.

  29. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Yeah, I kinda wouldn’t mind if the Phils one either, but I have to root for the Rays. FOR THE RAYS! (In case you didn’t hear me at first.)

    @BigFatHippo: Fair enough, but Joe Magrane is a terrible announcer.

  30. Grey

    Grey says:
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    Utley’s getting himself a hooker tonight!

  31. Steve says:
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    @Grey: He certainly looks like a pimp with that slicked-back ‘do.

  32. BigFatHippo says:
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    @Grey: Ha

    Two of em.

  33. Grey

    Grey says:
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    Look at that Rays lineup and tell me pitching doesn’t win pennants. Five of those guys would’ve made great Razzball picks. Who are, Aybar? I do not know you.

  34. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Just like fantasy H2H, it’s about your guys getting hot at the right time.

  35. BigFatHippo says:
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    @Grey: @Steve: Hamels looks filthy tonight. Filthy Hamels Toe?

  36. Brian B says:
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    I had a team that drafted Prince 1, Vmart3, Hafner 4, Tulo 6 and still finished 4th. Even with these busts one can still put together a winner if you have a bit of good luck (catching fire with Cliff Lee, Ankiel and Wiggs) and manipulate the numbers

  37. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Definitely similar, but you weren’t picking up Aybar at any point.

  38. Steve says:
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    @Grey: True that. I think we could all say that there are players who, no matter how hot they get, we would never have on our team in a million years.

  39. BigFatHippo says:
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    Ben Zobrist comes to mind, don’t they have a better DH?

  40. BigFatHippo says:
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    Victorino was out. Who’s on 2nd, Denkinger?

  41. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @BigFatHippo: Isn’t that insane? And that’s the AL team.

  42. Grey

    Grey says:
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    Wow, great throw. But then why didn’t he hustle off the field?

  43. BigFatHippo says:
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    @Grey: You would think they’d have the upper hand at the DH spot but they don’t. Matt Stairs will do something this series, I’ll bet my Mickey Hatcher rookie card on it.

  44. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @BigFatHippo: Aybar’s actually the DH. Which doesn’t make it better. I gotta think Aybar and Coste are the two worst DHs in the history of the World Series. Where’s Elias Sports Bureau when you need them?

  45. BigFatHippo says:
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    @Grey: Where’s Barry Bonds when you need him?

    Collusion!!!!!!!!

  46. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @BigFatHippo: You realize Zobrist is about to have the best series ever. Okay, maybe he’ll go 1-for-4, with one seeing-eye single.

  47. BigFatHippo says:
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    @Grey: I got a gut feeling Iwamura will have a huge series. Hordes of Nikon’s will flash from the stands.

    And at dinner, and breakfast, and at the Piggly Wiggly. They’ll never leave his side.

  48. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @BigFatHippo: He’s a rockstar! Who? Iwamura, of course!

    There’s that lack of hustle from Upton. Way to not bend for a bounce.

  49. BigFatHippo says:
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    @Grey: He was dekin the runner. Zobrist, the gold glover, had his back.

    There’s a start, ladies and gents, your Razzball #1 bust of the year!

  50. Steve says:
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    @BigFatHippo: @Grey: I mananged to turn that No.1 bust into Tex about the same time as Grey traded him for Braun.

    He was, though, kind enough to hit a grand slam in his last at-bat for me.

    BTW – isn’t fantasy baseball great? It gives you license to curse a guy for hitting a home run in the World Series.

  51. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @BigFatHippo: Zobrist just brought in my mail. Thanks, Zobrist!

  52. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: I don’t remember that trade, but I’m sure you ran it by me. But if you didn’t — great trade!

  53. Steve says:
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    @Grey: I ran everything by you.

    Except when I picked up Willy Aybar.

  54. BigFatHippo says:
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    @Steve: Sweet. And yeah, playoff baseball is a whole different animal.

    BJ, where were those extra 7 homers during the regular season? Blow me.

  55. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Willie Aybar? How dare you?

    @BigFatHippo: He didn’t want to overshadow Zobrist.

  56. BigFatHippo says:
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    @Grey: Zobrist wanted a Hummer for his b-day.

    BJ obliged, gave him 9.

  57. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @BigFatHippo: Zobrist strikes me as a Prius-type guy.

  58. BigFatHippo says:
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    And all I got was a free taco.

  59. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Ha! Just kidding.

  60. BigFatHippo says:
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    @Grey: Iwamura!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Godzilla got nothing on him, buy stock in Nikon cameras.

  61. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @BigFatHippo: Woo-hoo! When is that deal anyway?

    @Steve: Do they have Taco Bell in New Zealand? No? Oh, too bad! Free tacos for America!

  62. BigFatHippo says:
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    @Steve: @Grey: Does the Aukland version of the taco contain Joey meat? Just wondering, I’m looking for any reason to notify PETA. Maybe they give rewards for that.

  63. Steve says:
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    @Grey: No Taco Bell here.
    @BigFatHippo: No kangaroos either. Auckland is in New Zealand – not Australia ;-)

  64. BigFatHippo says:
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    @Grey: Hehe

    Grind up David Schwimmer while you’re at it. Just don’t touch Lisa Kudrow, she’s mine.

  65. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Sounds like the head of Taco Bell, the, um, Bell Head, sounds like he might be from Down Under. If it’s true, that’s why you don’t have Taco Bell. He’s saving his own people. People call it Taco Hell.

  66. BigFatHippo says:
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    @Steve: Sorry, I was profiling. If I ever visit down under the aboriginies will have to fill me in. We have some of them around here in the Bootheel, they’re called neighbors. :)

  67. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @BigFatHippo: They’re probably the best dressed ones! Oofa!*

    (I’m not sure how that is a putdown, but I do believe it is.)

  68. BigFatHippo says:
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    @Grey: Madge wears bunny slippers and a pink nighty when she fetches the morning paper. She actually fetches it, on all fours. I think her hirsute husband is a Lycanthrope.

    He frightens my kids, just in time for Halloween.

  69. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @BigFatHippo: Ha! Oh, man. You kill me, Hippo.

    @Steve: Look at the Aussie mowing down the Hawaiian.

  70. Steve says:
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    @Grey: you have to hand it to the aussies – when it comes to sport they are incredibky tough competitors and they don’t know the meaning of the phrase ‘inferiority complex’.

    There was a New Zealander in the MLB Futures game this year, BTW – guy called Scott Campbell. Had never heard of him before!

  71. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Never heard of him either. Any good?

  72. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Just looked at his stats. He looks like he could be in the majors pretty soon. He’s very solid.

  73. BigFatHippo says:
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    @Grey: Hehe

    Yeah, I get fired up about Halloween. Get to build the kids costumes this weekend. I’ve won several costume contests in various bars, so should be able to come up with something.

    My favorite was the 9 foot mummy in top hat and cane, with a four foot schlong hanging down. Two apples served as his nuts. Dressed my little brother up in that, he walked on dry-wall stilts. With Harley boots.

    This is a great game 1 eh?

  74. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Brian B: True, but you definitely put yourself in a hole with those guys. Though that was more crappy luck than anything else. Tulo, V-Mart and Prince will probably be fine in 2009, you just got them on an off year.

  75. BigFatHippo says:
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    @Grey: She ate cookie monster! Wonder if she dunked his flesh in a glass of milk. I would have, mmmmm.

    Memento, nice. You Hollywood guys get that.

    I once went as Dr Feelgood on a last minute. Cut the front of a box in two cup shapes, lined it with aluminum foil, illuminated the inside with flashlights, stuck my head and arms in and put a sign on the front.

    “Free Mammograms, Place Breasts Here”

    Try it, it’s a big hit.

  76. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @BigFatHippo: Nice. One year I went as Howard Hughes. I wore a bath robe and tissue boxes on my feet while carrying a milk bottle filled with beer (to look like pee).

  77. BigFatHippo says:
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    Rays need a Pujols don’t they?

  78. Grey

    Grey says:
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    They’re lucky we didn’t get Aybar up to bat!

    It’s all right, we’ll get Moyer, Myers and Blanton.

  79. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Looks like it’s up to the rest of the Phillies rotation to show what they’re made of?

  80. BigFatHippo says:
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    @Grey: Hamels may be MVP of this series too.

    Back to halloween. Hughes, nice.

    I stuck a mannequin head between my legs once, gloves on my feet, shoes on my hands, jacket around legs, pants on my head and looked like I was upside down. There’s still pics of it on the wall at the ABC pub.

    Was a bitch to hold my arms up all night.

  81. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Yup, that’s totally what it’s going to come down to.

    @BigFatHippo: re: Upside down costume — ha!

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