You Know Joe

A little peek behind the curtain, I see my job here (for 4 years now) as highlighting inconsistencies in pre-season draft value for you, our faithful readers. I try my best to use my baseball knowledge to point this out. And in my experience, it’s always interesting how certain players garner a lot of helium based on how their season ended or a lot of hopium (EWB’s word) based on wishful thinking. But there are always other guys—who share similar traits mind you—that might warrant a slight discount due to how the season ended but nowhere near the degree to which they are “forgotten.”

This year Joe Musgrove fits that narrative… and he shouldn’t. Joe Musgrove is an ace, full stop. Last year was last year; let’s leave it there. It started off on the wrong foot (zing!) when Musgrove injured his toe by dropping a cowbell on it during a workout. Ouch! That delayed his season. He injured it again at the series in Mexico with a turf burn (what is that stuff made of down there?) and after getting back on the mound he pitched through elbow bursitis before being shut down with shoulder inflammation. Late-season interviews revealed that these might have been side effects of compromised mechanics due to his toe injury.

Despite all of that, Joe Musgrove still finished the season with a 10-3 record, 3.05 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and 97 Ks through 97.1 IP. That was on pure effort. Before last year, Musgrove had thrown 181 innings in back-to-back years for the Padres. And since the Padres ultimately decided to fold up the chairs last season, Musgrove has had extra time to recover after not pitching in games during August and September. This allowed him to fully recover and begin regular offseason workouts without a setback. And as recently as this week, Mike Shildt reported that he is 100% good to go for spring training with no limitations.

Here is Joe Musgrove’s 3-year track record in case you need more convincing:

Since joining the Padres Joe Musgrove has a 60% win rate and a 3-year ERA of 3.05 and 1.09 WHIP with a K-rate above 9. Is that good? The answer of course is a resounding yes. Is he that much different than Logan Gilbert?

And that’s just the last 2 years of Gilbert after his welcome-to-the-bigs season. If you want to argue age and a few innings is what separates them, then fine. But is that worth a 3-round premium? Probably not. I don’t know about you, but I like the price for similar production later coming from Joe Musgrove (who is still only 31). He’ll likely throw fewer innings than Gilbert season-long but I’d rather use that earlier pick on higher-K upside or a 5-tool batter.

One thing worth noting is that the Padres will look a little different this year. Juan Soto has since left via trade, leaving a vacuum in the outfield to be filled by Jose Azocar (at the moment). While Azocar cannot replicate Soto’s bat (now or at any point in the future), he represents a substantial improvement in defense with above-average coverage and a 70-grade cannon ripe for defensive assists. So that could take the form of some doubles limited to singles, and some singles becoming outs. Admittedly, this doesn’t always represent a large sample of “opportunity” but it’s more than nothing.

Right now in the ADP landscape, Joe Musgrove is being taken in the pick 104 range. For those kinds of ratios, I see that as a discount based on the lost season in which he still put up 97 innings that are in line with career averages. Speaking of which, let’s highlight that a bit more. His 3-year ERA on the Padres is 3.05 and his 3-year WHIP is 1.09. To overly bring this down to brevity; he’s been really good and really consistent. In that range, I will happily take Musgrove. And if you need a refresher on what makes Musgrove “good,” here is my breakdown on him from a couple of years ago. Happy drafting.

If you want more Coolwhip to top off your baseball experience, fantasy or otherwise, you can follow me on Twitter: @CoolwhipRB.