OK, we now have about 40% more data than we did last week when I looked at early-season OF booms and busts. There were some player requests in the comments and some (100% justified) mockery about one of my busts as he went off. Reverse Jinxes really work! It’s high time we revisit this and look at some more booms and busts. Stats are through Saturday, and EAV is “Earned Auction Value” as per the Razzball Player Rater.
Early Season Booms and Why don’t I have More of These Guys?
.314, 6 HR, 12 Runs, 13 RBI, $42.4 EAV
One thing was fairly certain heading into 2026; it was a make or break season for the once mega prospect. The glide path to playing time was completely clear, Walker would get full time run for pretty much the first time since his rookie year. It feels like he’s been around forever, but he debuted in MLB in 2023 in his age 21 season, and he’s still short of his 24th birthday. Oh, and he went to Driveline
He shortened his swing and modified his tilt, and the tweaks have worked in a big way so far. He’s slashing .314/.386/.706. He has as many homers this year as he had in 396 PA’s in 2025. Is it sustainable? Whoever knows, but under the hood, it’s super encouraging. Swinging hard was never the problem for Walker, as he already had 99th percentile Bat Speed in 2025 and has increased it slightly in 2026. What he’s managed to do is better his poor quantity of contact a shade (29.8% K% vs. 31.8%, 31.7% Whiff% vs. 35.6%) while wildly improving the quality of his contact. He’s hitting it at an Ideal Attack Angle 62.8% of the time now vs. 47.7% in 2025, and his Squared Up% has jumped from 18.1% (2nd percentile) to 23.9% (48th percentile). Most dramatically, his LA Sweet Spot% has jumped from 29% (5th percentile to 47.1% (96th percentile).
It’s really early still, but he’s even improved his glove so far. It’s been a while now, but he was a 3rd baseman coming up, and the Cards had Nolan Arenado there and Paul Goldschmidt at 1st and Walker had to move to OF when he came up. And the adjustment was pretty rocky as he’s had a negative value glove ever since. Until this year, when he’s now an 82nd percentile fielder as per Statcast.
That’s neither here nor there. Fielding only matters to us if it impacts PT, and Walker will stay on the field if this is real or a mirage. He’s obviously not likely to keep this torrid pace up, but it’s super encouraging so far, and nothing under the hood suggests it’s a fluke.
.302, 3 HR, 10 Runs, 8 RBI, 3 Steals $26.3 EAV
It’s another big 3B prospect that got bumped to the OF so he could stick with the big club. In Smith’s case, the Astros got him in the 2025 Kyle Tucker trade, and he had a huge spring and forced his way up to the majors after just 134 minor league PA’s in 2024, none higher than AA. He wasn’t bad in 2025 as he had a 90 wRC+ with an average glove in a position he had never played before. But for Fantasy purposes, he did very little, batting .236 with 9 homers and 8 steals in 496 PA’s. It wasn’t clear he would get a full-time MLB gig in 2026 or even necessarily make the team out of camp.
Well, he did, and he’s flown out of the gate at ..302/.393/.547 in his first 62 PA’s while playing every day.
How has he done it? He’s bumped his Bat Speed 3.3 MPH, most in MLB among qualified hitters, while improving his K% from 27.8% to 24.8%. It’s translated to more pop as he’s seen jumps in EV from 87.9 to 90.1 and HardHit% from 40.8% to 52.6%. These are real solid gains from an excellent prospect. He’s surely going to regress a bit, but I’d absolutely buy into what we’re seeing.
.345 4 HR, 10 Runs, 12 RBI, 5 Steals $3 EAV
I’m not totally sure Cruz should count for this list, as he was a pretty high pick to begin with, and he did have a 20 homer 38 steal season in 2025. But there were monstrous holes on top of his often terrible and indifferent defense in CF, and his accompanying awful body language. And oh yeah, he had a 32% K% and .200 BA. He wasn’t even starting against lefties as he had a career 67 wRC+. I stayed a mile away.
So it’s still really early despite what I said up top, but he’s playing every day and has 8 hits in his first 16 AB’s against southpaws, and three of those hits were homers. Perhaps he’s actually made some helpful adjustments? He’s reduced his bat speed a shade from 78.8 to 78 (still 99th percentile), and he’s maintained his monstrous 95.9 EV and 57.9% HardHit% while lowering his K% to 28.3%. I’m not sure he can keep that up, though, as his Whiff% has lifted from 34% to 39.6% (4th percentile)
He’s obviously not going to hit .345 or anything remotely close to that. But optimistically, he can bat .245 and do well enough vs. lefties to not get platooned. And he leads off vs righties in front of an improved Pirates lineup. So who knows, he could be a major fantasy asset.
Boom That Was a Bust This Time Last Week
.522, 3 HR, 8 Runs, 10 RBI, 1 Steal since April 5th
He now has an EAV of $32.1 on the season, 5th best among outfielders. Those K’s I was so worried about? He has a 13.8% K% in the past week. The only lesson is it’s still REALLY early, and the busts I’m about to highlight can and probably will turn their seasons around in a heartbeat. In all fairness, Wood and his enormous K problem dated back to last season and included spring training as well. I hope he’s fixed it.
Busts and I Still Don’t Know What I Was Thinking
.182, 0 HR, 1 RBI 0 Steals -11.8 EAV
It’s usually injuries that derail Buxon, but that’s not the case so far, as he’s missed just two games, and one is just a rest day today (Sunday). It’s actually kind of disconcerting so far, as his already meh contact skills have not changed. His bat speed has declined from 75 to 73.5, and the quality of his contact has just imploded. EV is down from 92.5 to 88.7, and his Squared Up% is just 17.9% (14th percentile). His LA is an absurdly high 30.8, which I suppose could lead to an occasional barrel but is awful for Avg.
He’s a proven superstar, and he’s 32 now, an age you’d expect maybe some slow decline, but not this. I’m just rolling him out where I have him. I suspect it’s just a very slow start.
.172, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 0 Steals -$9.9 EAV
Don’t we go through this every year? That’s why I skipped over Julio last week.
Well, he did have 3 homers, 4 steals, and 12 runs already at this time in 2025. So it’s not every year. But he does have a history of picking it up as the year goes on. He has just an 86 career wRC+ in March/April, but no wRC+ lower than 106 (June) in any other month. His career first half wRC+ is 111, vs. 154 in 2nd halves
Yes, it’s very ugly so far, and it’s not just bad luck, his skills look worse, too, across the board. But there’s nothing to do but ride this out.
The Astros woke up JRod, but is that JRod heating up or the Astros being that bad? Or a combo. We’ll see how he does at San Diego. Still keeping him in my lineup for now, though thought of putting him on the trade train.
I wouldn’t sell for much of a discount, he just does something similar too often. I agree though it might just be the awful Astros pitchers that woke him up