What to Expect When You’re Expecting The 1-1: Bazzana is up

There’s always a lot of excitement for a highly regarded prospect to come up for a team.  Travis Bazzana is no exception to that.  We’re talking about the number 1 overall pick in a draft less than 2 years ago.  We’ve had a lot of excitement already come from that draft.  In draft order, Chase Burns, Nick Kurtz, Jac Caglianone, JJ Wetherholt, Christian Moore, Konnor Griffin, Cam Smith, Chase Burns, and Trey Yesavage have all made their MLB debuts, with varying degrees of success.  So if Bazzana was taken before all these guys, he must be great right? Well…

We focus on fantasy production here at Razzball.  And frankly, that means that Bazzana has to do things to contribute to the 5+ categories that count towards doing better in our game.  This fact in particular is why I am personally higher on Wetherholt than I am on McGonigle, who has earned more praise.  So let’s take a look at what Bazzana does, and how he could help your squad:

Runs: In order for a player to score runs, it is dependent on 3 things:

1. Getting on base
2. Having someone hit behind him to drive them in
3. Driving themselves in with a Home run

The main strength of Bazzana’s game is getting on base.  He’s better at it than just about everyone in his draft class.  In his 84 games last year (he missed time with oblique injuries), Bazzana had a .420 OBP.  This included 66 walks to his 74 hits. In college, his OBPs were .425, .500, and .568.  Getting on base is clearly the strength of his game.

Cleveland’s lineup, assuming they place him near the top, includes all-world 3B Jose Ramirez and an emerging Chase DeLauter, both of whom have shown they like to drive in runs.  When Bazzana adjusts to the Major League Pitching, he will emerge as a decent top of the lineup option, replacing a struggling Steven Kwan. This will be the strength of his traditional fantasy contribution.

Home Runs: Bazzana has never been a masher.  He doesn’t have the power that you have seen from Kurtz, Wetherholt, or even McGonigle (who has finally gotten on the board in that category).  Bazzana’s power game has demonstrated a lot of pull side power, more so, looking at a gap to gap doubles approach.  What does this mean for this year?  It means it’s unlikely you’ll see 15 bombs from him, let alone 20.  His power game is not there yet.  Frankly, I think you’re looking at a Dansby Swanson type of development.  Something in the neighborhood of 20-25 in his prime, which will be 3-4 years from now.

RBI: RBI is completely dependent on guys in front of you getting on base. If Bazzana is going to spend his time at the top of Cleveland’s lineup as his OBP suggests he should, then we are looking to see how well the bottom of Cleveland’s lineup does at getting on base.  The answer is… Not Great, Bob.  And to be fair, no bottom of a lineup outside of the Dodgers all stars are good at this.  It’s why these guys are at the bottom of the lineup.  While he adjusts, Bazzana has batted 6th, behind Ramirez, a struggling Kyle Manzardo, and a surging Daniel Schneemann.  Schneeman will provide some opportunity for Bazzana to drive him in, but it isn’t a prime spot to generate a ton of RBI.  Do not count on him to be a big contributor here.

Stolen Bases: Once again, stolen bases are a product of two factors, which are getting on base, which Bazzana is great at, and speed. Bazzana’s history has shown us that he can contribute here, albeit in a limited fashion.  At Oregon St, he had seasons of 14, 36, and 16 SB.  Considering that last season he was on base 136 times with the opportunity to steal (Hits – HR -3B + BB + HBP), the lower total seems slightly concerning in terms of his speed.  Last year in his 84 games, he stole a total of 12 bases.  It seems this is a skill that he hasn’t developed yet.  Again, we’re looking at a total of 15-20 per season early in his career.

Rate Stats: Bazzana’s strength is getting on base.  He’s incredibly selective, working deep into counts frequently.  This boosts his OBP to stellar heights.  However, his lack of home run power will always have his Slugging Percentage remain in the middle of the pack of 2B.  He’s not going to be a masher, it’s just not in his profile.  His batting average in the minors was strong this year at .287 in AAA, but last year did not eclipse .256 at any stop.  Bottom line, he will be average at this.

So what does this package put together to become?  Honestly, it becomes Dansby Swanson without the strong glove.  He’ll get on base a ton. He’ll score a ton of runs. He may even have a 25/20/90/80 season.  But that won’t be this year or even the next.  You’re looking at a guy who will be a top 10 2B, but not a superstar.