What The Adell Is Going On Here?

Jo Adell

Hold your hand up if you’ve been burned by Jo Adell more than once. How many times did he sink your AVG and become completely unplayable within weeks or days after adding him? Consequently, I refused to budge and missed last year’s 37 bombs. Finally convinced he arrived, I, like many of you, drafted him this year. Grey even had him #39 in his Top 40 Outfielders. Now that we bought in, what did we actually get? Fool me once, fool me twice… thrice?

Admittedly, we knew he’d be light on average, but we thought he’d provide a good source of power and a few steals to boot. If I told you that he was hitting .245 with a strikeout rate under 22%, would you believe me? His BABIP is even higher than last year. I bet you would think he was having a big year, or at least meeting last year’s power output.

At the break, Adell is on pace for 23/89/5/.248. That’s not bad, but I think we were looking for more power (Tim Allen reference, anyone?). He did have a two-HR game in July, which just broke a stretch of one home run over his previous 25 games. Was that double-dong game a sign of things to come?

Honestly, I keep thinking of the tire shop scene in Bad Boys. “JoJo? Oh, don’t make this hard, Jo.” Well, he kinda is. Let’s dig in…

Statcast as of July 16

We can see a few things besides the chart on the left being more red. Notably, his hard-hit rate and exit velocity are down, and his barrel rate has cratered. Despite a reduced K rate, his walk rate is half of what it was last year. Now we are starting to put some of the pieces together.

Let’s dive into more data…

The trend shows he’s been more aggressive. He is swinging more and chasing out of the zone more often, but he’s actually making more contact. Very simply, he is making more contact, but his quality of contact is significantly worse. The drop in exit velocity and barrel rate is fixable. Maybe if he were a little more selective like last year, he would improve his quality of contact.

Pitchers are also attacking him differently. He is seeing less hard stuff and more off-speed pitches, especially the change-up, which is the pitch he struggles with the most based on run value. In fact, pitchers have nearly doubled the rate of change-ups they’re throwing him. Consequently, he is hitting .125 with an xBA of .186 and a 42.6% whiff rate vs the pitch this year. Ouch.

So, putting all of this together, what do we do with him? He is a firm hold for me if you have him and could even be seen as a buy low. I must confess: my moral compass will not allow me to take credit for the buy low. I only listed him as a hold, and the timing of Grey’s recommendation came out after I wrote my piece, but I completely support the buy low stance.

The break should provide a much-needed reset to help him get back to what he was doing last year. If he can show more patience and the walk rate creeps back up, I think his quality of contact will improve, and the power will follow. If it clicks again, he can hit HRs in bunches. He has done it before (12 HRs over a 25-game stretch last year).

Two Under-Rostered Up-and-Comers

I am going to highlight two young call-ups and look at their production from June 9 through the break. I chose June 9 only because one of them was called up on that exact date. What if I told you that both of these players are cemented into everyday roles and are in the top 17 in wOBA among outfielders over that same time period? Do I have your attention?

Cole Carrigg

Since getting the call on June 9, Cole Carrigg has forced his way into an everyday role as the primary CF for Colorado. Grey told you to buy and most recently had him ranked higher than you would think. The ranking was based on upside, and Carrigg has oodles of it, especially if he runs like he did in the minors and he plays half of his games at Coors.

He has enjoyed a very productive start to his career and is 17^th in wOBA among outfielders since his call-up…

Coors remains among the best spots in the league for park factor, so I would not be doing my job if we didn’t look at his splits. If we prorate his stats over 162 games and keep the same splits (I am comfortable with the extreme Coors goodness), we get 120/21/115/10/.278. Yowza! While his BABIP and AVG are down on the road, he still is showing power and run production.

Will he keep up this pace? I’m not sure, but I am not waiting around to find out. The Rockies have 34 of their remaining 66 games at Coors. He is only 30% rostered in Yahoo and is a resounding buy. Go get him stat!

AJ Ewing

A.J. Ewing is locked into an everyday CF role, and also qualifies at 2B. He was a buy back in May, but he recently started to take off.

Amazingly, the Mets have inserted him into the leadoff spot in seven straight games and eight out of his last ten going into the break. He hits ahead of some guy known as Sexy Dr. Pepper around these parts. There are worse places to be in a lineup, and he’s going to get pitches to hit. One warning: I expect more stolen bases, but they won’t show up unless he becomes more efficient on the basepaths. Right now, he is getting thrown out at a 40% clip.

Ewing is 12^th in wOBA among outfielders since June 9. Look at his stats over that same time period…

Honestly, I stumbled across these splits while digging into Carrigg. Ewing’s home/road numbers should normalize over a larger sample size. Despite those fluky splits and somewhat wonky power numbers, his production has been far better than most realize. Interestingly, six of his seven total home runs (57 games played) came in a span of 23 games during this stretch.

Prorate that sample from June 9 over 162 games, and you get 74/28/82/9/.269. Whoa! Do I think he’s going to hit 28 HRs? Absolutely not. Should you pick him up? Unequivocally yes. He is only 35% rostered in Yahoo. Go fix that.

Thanks for reading.