It’s 8-9 games into the season, that’s almost 6%! High time we rue all the disastrous picks we made and crow about all the winners we nailed. Or rue the ones we missed as those trains leave the station.
Of course, I kid. Kind of. Hey, I’m human, and we spend draft season making calls on these guys, and then we get to see it play out for a week and change. I know full well it’s an incredibly small sample size. It’s arguably even less representative of other short stretches. The weather is mixed, and guys just haven’t gotten into full form yet. But hey, some data points do stabilize early and give us info. So let’s look at some really early outfield busts and breakouts and see if we can read much into any of them. Stats are through Saturday’s games, so when one of the Busts has a 3 homer game on Monday please thank me in the comments for my Reverse Jinx!
(Spoiler Alert, you can…DS)
Outfield Busts: What In The World Was I Thinking
.111, 1 HR, 0 SB
I worried about this one a mile away and faded him for the most part….and then rostered him “cheap” in my biggest auction. He looked like a breakout star in the first half of 2025, then imploded with a 39% K% after the All Star break. And then kept whiffing in Spring Training. And I guess unsurprisingly, it still has not stopped, and he’s struck out on 40% of his first 40 PA’s in 2026 with a Whiff% of 39.7% (6th percentile)
In the 20 times he has managed to make contact, 10 count as hard hits, but his EV is 90.3, down from 94.3 in 2025. But hey, 3 were barrels! It’s obviously too early to pass judgment on the EV, but it’s kind of discouraging given that in his Whifftastic 2nd half of 2025, he had a 95.4 EV on those rare times he got his bat on the ball.
I would love to find something encouraging here, but I am not sure I can. His bat speed is still high, but it’s down slightly from 76 to 75.5. You would like to think that’s semi intentional as a way to improve his contact rate. So far, not so good.
Wood is still just 23.5 years old with all the skills we love. There’s no action to take short of maybe benching him in a daily league until you leave a big game on your bench. But at some point, you have to wonder if the Nats send him down for a brief AAA stay to get him right.
(Make that 2 homers for Wood….DS)
.133, 0 HR
Athletics not named Shea Langeliers have pretty much all started slowly. I could include Tyler Soderstrom here as well, since he also has yet to homer and rocks just a .207 average. But let’s go with Rooker here since he had a significantly higher draft cost.
Rooker hit 30 homers last season while sporting a career low 22.2% K% and projected as just about the best outfielder after the superstar tier that ended with Fernando Tatis Jr. in the top 20 overall picks. My model that I used for my OF ratings had him on par in value with Jackson Chourio. But whoa, he looks completely lost right now.
Rooker has a 42.4% K% with an ungodly high 50.8% Whiff%. He only has 5 hard hits in 16 batted ball events, three of which were barrels. His EV is just 87.8, ve. 90.7 last year.
I’m more confident here than I am with Wood, though I will admit I do not have a regular season data point that backs that up. I guess it’s more that with Wood it’s just an extension of a bad trend that started last July, while with Rooker, there’s nothing worrisome beyond a tiny 33 PA sample size. He hit .340 in Spring Training with 5 homers and a 25% K%.
(And Rooker homers twice Sunday, including a walk-off….the Reverse Jinx really works…..DS)
.129, 0 HR, 1 steal
I rostered Marsee a bunch, and not only because he led to great fantasy team names. “Marsee Playground”, “30 Seconds to Marsee”…I could go into Brady Brunch Marsha offshoots, but I digress.
Marsee hit .292 with 5 homers and 14 steals in 234 PA’s in 2025 and would hit leadoff for the Marlins this season. No one expected the .292 again this year, but I did think his projections in the .220’s and .230’s looked light. He’s a speed guy with a 20.3% K% last year, which was consistent with his level in the minors. 10-15 homers, steals in the 30’s, and in runs with a passable batting average sure looked in the cards. And frankly, I think that’s all still in play.
He has a 31.4% K% that’s totally out of whack with his 15.5% Whiff% and 5.2% SwStr%, which are both near elite. Typically, K% is about double SwStr%. The discrepancy is, of course, that he’s watching a lot of strikes go by (22.5% CStr%), but that’s not something he did that much of in either MLB (18.8% last year) or in the minors (typically mid-teens). His Contact% is elite at 86%, and his LA Sweet Spot% of 38.1% is 70th percentile, so it’s pretty good contact.
No one drafted Marsee for power, and you are getting zero right now as he’s yet to barrel a ball. But I do think the average will bounce back, and ergo his other counting stats.
Outfield Booms and What Did I Miss
.478, 2 HR, 3 Steals
OK, I did not actually miss Isbel. I literally wrote to not roster him in any format when I looked at the Royals OF competition. Yes, he’s a nice real life player as he has an excellent glove in Center. But no, he had no value for our game. He had 4 homers and 4 steals last year in 409 PA’s. He has a .242 career avg and 81 wRC+ and has never had more than 42 RBI’s or 62 runs in a season, both of which he did in 2024 when he also exploded for career highs with 8 homers and 11 steals.
But now? I suppose he’s worth a flyer in deep leagues. He’s clearly going for power early on and sacrificing contact. His Whiff% has jumped from 18.2% to 25.6%, but so far the tradeoff has worked as his EV has popped from 87.8 to 91.5. Can he somehow make this work and morph into maybe a 15-15 guy without tanking his Avg? Who knows, of course, pitchers will probably adapt their approach. We will see.
.558, 2 HR, 7 runs
Wiemer redefined the word journeyman as he bounced around 40 man rosters all offseason after drifting through back end of MLB rosters in Milwaukee, Cincy, and KC the last two regular seasons. He’s found a home for now in DC, though even they don’t seem sure what to make of this, as he does not get every day run.
There’s really not anything to compare this to in regular season stats, as he had just 89 nondescript PA’s in the bigs since 2023. But he was a semi interesting prospect not all that long ago who had 13 homers and 11 steals in 410 PA’s with the Brewers in 2023. That came with a 28% K% and a .204 average, unfortunately.
It’s just 27 PA’s so far, but take a gander at his bright red Statcast page.
Like Isbel, take a deep league shot if you can to see if it’s at all real.
.318, 1 HR, 11 RBI, 3 Steals
OK, no caveats on this one, roster in all but shallow formats. He’s a strong side platoon bat, and he won’t average over an RBI per game obviously, but he’s a legit interesting power-speed source in the middle of an excellent lineup. He has just never stayed on the field, as he’s racked up just 469 MLB PA’s since his 2022 debut. Fwiw, he has a 117 wRC+ with a .257 avg, 14 homers, and 26 steals in what amounts to close to a full season for a platoon guy. Those numbers play!
Is the Avg at serious risk? Maybe. So far in 2026, he’s swinging for the downs with 75.7 bat speed (92nd percentile) that’s producing 98.4 EV (100th percentile!). The downside is that his Whiff% is 44.7% (1st percentile) with a K% of 38.5%. So yeah, he could turn into James Wood with less power. But again, take a stab here if you can.
I feel like you haven’t looked at Wood since Saturday. Since then he’s 5-11, with 7 runs and 7 RBI, 4 walks and two K’s. Plus legs.
And three bombs.
Yeah, up to 4 HR too. BA up almost 100 points. Odd choice for a headliner. lol
Trust me I’ve noticed! As I mentioned I have him on my most expensive team. I wrote this on Sunday before the games and then noted the Sunday homer. Glad to have reverse jinxed him and it looks ridiculous to headline him with the benefit of seeing him going off in the 3 games since I wrote it. As of noon Sunday he was showing no signs of shaking the monster K problem, I can’t emphasize enough that I hope his resurgence is real
I cannot thank you enough for the reverse jinx! Next step: batting average over the Mendoza line.
For your next article can you please rip Josh Naylor to shreds? Please and thank you. Lolz
Lmao thanks. If they let me add no OFs I could really use Nick Kurtz to hit a homer or five
2/2 today and counting! Woods is looking so much better.
<3
Jordan Beck, ouff
Yeah and only playing part time. Not good
Where’s nobody drafted J Walker on list ?
Yeah that’s a good one, if I do another of these next week he should be in. Cam Smith also
If you’re gonna include Woods and Rooker in your busts category than it’s only fair and more than appropriate to include JRod as well.
I did think of him but he’s notorious for these slow starts and then getting on a roll as the season goes on so I didn’t think i would have much to add