I’m not a huge fan of Dustin AckleyWay to sell the reader on this keeper out of the gate!  Why don’t you just tell me he slept with my Random Italicized mother too?  Sorry, Random Italicized Voice, just being up front.  The real world is already harsh enough with the truth and non-slanted letters.  Lie to me!  I love Dustin AckleyOh, forget it now. In Ackley’s first full three-quarters of a major league season (maybe that’s not full), he hit 6 homers and stole 6 bases in 333 ABs.  Yikes, his ABs are half of the devil, a dwarf devil!  Prior to his call-up, he hit 9 homers and stole 7 bases in 66 games at Triple-A.  Not one of these numbers jumps out at me as being unlikely from Ackley (say that fast 117 times!).  He Ks a bit, walks a bit, steals a bit, badonkadonks a bit.  He’s like a young Crapolanco.  Yikes, let me get out of the intro paragraph before I drain all of my enthusiasm for him.  So what can we expect of Dustin Ackley in 2012 fantasy baseball and what makes him a keeper?

Okay, here’s the thing, and there’s always a thing unless you live in a vacuum pack.  I don’t think Ackley is gonna necessarily crawl up into a ball and be terrible next year.  I also don’t think he’s gonna make clay action figures and sell them under the name Sucklord.  He’s more or less a teen-ish power and speed guy.  It’s just a’ight.  On a scale of a’ight, “just a’ight” is below a’ight and a’ight a’ight, but he gets a boost to a’ight and nearly a’ight a’ight with how cheap he should be for people next year.  Safeco didn’t play terrible for homers last year, but, as the French say, that was an outlier.  It’s a hideous place for power.  Last year to get to .273 on his average, he needed a .339 BABIP.  That average shouldn’t drop into the toilet like Lawrence Taylor’s post-football life, but he’s gonna be hard-pressed to hit over .270.  I’ll give him the line of 80/12/55/.265/12.  So the prognosis may not be so Ackadocious, and I may not draft Ackley for my 2012 fantasy baseball team, but I would keep him in the right situation.

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Quinn
Quinn
10 years ago

Long-term Keeper question – I can keep 5 of Avilla, Kipnis, Asdrubal, Moore, Goldschmidt, Teheran, Trout. Which two do you think I shouldn’t keep? Thanks!

Tony
Tony
10 years ago

@ black_toshiba: is that really a question? haha……

black_toshiba
black_toshiba
10 years ago

BJ or Justin Upton….
Who is going to carry better value in redraft leagues in 2012?
Thanks

In
In
10 years ago

Grey, a question:

13-team 5×5 roto keeper league

$6 Logan Morrison

or

$0 Moustakas?

Salaries increase by $5 every year, so 2013 it would be $11 Lomo, $5 Mous

chata
chata
10 years ago

jason werth for carl crawford .

chata
chata
10 years ago

rumor time ….
jair going to the royals for minor league replenishment .

Tony
Tony
10 years ago

there’s better options than ackley.

Was just checking some yahoo final #’s…. crazy Cargo finished top 30 and had sub 500 AB’s…. because of injuries. Grey do you see him going 1st round next year? Late first round anyways? He’s obviously got 30/30 potential and probably a .280-.300 (high end) potential. His staying healthy is the main concern.

royce!
royce!
10 years ago

Ackley’s September really made his season look bleh. I don’t know if he was tired, pushing, or pitchers began figuring him out, but his K% doubled from July (14% to 29%), and his average plummeted due to the K rise and a steep drop in LD%. His 2011 AAA K% and his 2010 AA and A K% were all around 11%, so I would expect his overall K% to decline considerably.

I also don’t think that his BABIP should scare people away. His average was dragged down considerably by his poor September showing, and the reason for his very high BABIP was that he was hitting a lot of line drives: 25.6% in July and 27.8% in August. I know that the whole “LD% plus .120 = BABIP” formula is too simple, but it shows that his July and August BABIPs (.333 and .380, respectively) should have actually been higher, as should his AVG for those months.

Anyhow, it seems to me that his terrible September is really skewing the results. I’m thinking he could hit .280 plus next year, but considering that he’ll likely only hit HR and steal bases in the mid-teens, I will probably avoid him unless he falls pretty far. And the Mariners sign Pujols.

zombie
10 years ago

Was quite disapointed reading this after the wonderful time that he and I had together this season. Thought that it could be a long term type thing. Then you go disparaging, and call him a young Crapolano. & just before I begin to buy in and blame him for my 2nd place finish, I realize that it wasn’t fellow 2B Lawrie that you were refering to, but the barely similar sounding Ackley. So, I agree with your accessment and will turn my attention back to football.

lothda
lothda
10 years ago

In a H2H Points league with 6 keepers.
Already keeping Braun, Kemp, AGonz, Hanley, Wright, and I am trying to decide between Adam Jones or Dustin Ackley.
With 5 OF spots and Braun and Kemp already, who is the better keeper overall and for my team? Thanks.

Lance Berkman
Lance Berkman
10 years ago

Who cares about him? I’m a world champion

SwaggerJackers
SwaggerJackers
10 years ago

Reading this post makes me less likely to draft him than before reading this post. If he’s not projected to hit at least .280 with those subpar counting stats, what’s the point? I’ll wait for a speedster type like Bonerfacio to emerge on the wire.

ChrisV
10 years ago

If he wasn’t a 2nd baseman, I wouldn’t even fart in his general direction.

And I am having a lot of gas today.

big o
big o
10 years ago

a rookie 2nd baseman thrust into the 3 hole in the line-up …. speaks
to his potential and regard .
coupled with brendan ryan , he should feel real comfortable in the field .
too soon to make comparisons to aparicio/fox , still , it should affford
him the luxury of concentrating on what’s happening when he steps into
the batter box .
certainly don’t see him as a candidate for the dreaded sophomore jinx .

Trekker
Trekker
10 years ago

Grey, for the same price, who would you rather keep, Kipnis or Ackley? Thanks!

Awesomus Maximus
Awesomus Maximus
10 years ago

Did we Real World yet?