*places an order on Amazon for a megaphone, goes with the free shipping option, waits three to five days, sits outside the door for shipment, begins to rain, yells for Cougs to hand me an umbrella, shakes head annoyed when she hands me a drink umbrella, on the fifth day, the megaphone arrives, opens box, groans, heads out to CVS for some batteries for my new megaphone, buys batteries, unable to wait any longer, places batteries in megaphone while inside the CVS, grimaces at feedback, then cackles into megaphone for ten minutes straight until escorted out of the store* I am ordering megaphones to laugh into because it’s so hilarious I am writing an overrated post for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Can we all agree that at least 30% of the people drafting Vlad “The Mini Impaler” are doing it because they have so much FOMO after Ronald Acuña Jr. last year? Maybe even 50% or more are drafting Impaler Jr. due to FOMO. Even ESPN and Yahoo are ranking Vlad for that FOMO factor. Yo, Yahoo and ESPN, you can’t make up for Mr. Bungling Acuña last year with your ranking for VGJ this year. You just can’t. By the way, I wanna see a show on MTV called The FOMO Factor hosted by Ludacris, and it’s the worst show ever but everyone on the show feared it was going to be the best show. Anyway, what can we expect from Vladimir Guerrero Jr. for 2019 fantasy baseball and what makes him overrated?
Figure this one out, last year Yahoo and ESPN ranked Acuña 173 and 155, respectfully. (I ranked him 66th.) That’s Acuña, who was projected to do 25/20/.280, vs. Vlad, who is projected to do 24/5/.305. Y’all realize Acuña’s projections are better, right? Not y’all y’all, but them y’all. Does that square with anyone? Am I literally the only one injecting common sense into fantasy baseball? I don’t think I’m that smart; some would even argue I’m actually quite dopey. Thanks, dad! There’s no way Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is better right now than Acuña was going into last year. Somehow, their ADPs are insanely different though. I was regularly drafting Acuña last year after 100 overall. The Glad Vuerrero spoonerism is going in the top 40 in some drafts. Taking me out of the equation for objectiveness, Steamer projections (all rookie hitter projections, if you’re interested) for Guerrero: 90/27/93/6/.306 in 586 ABs. That feels a bit high on runs and ABs, tee bee aitch, but let’s go with that. To keep this apples to apples, that puts him on line with another 3rd baseman, Eugenio Suarez, and around the 80th best player on the 12-team auction values. 80th! It’s clear why he’s not a top 40 player; he’s a negative in steals. It’s hard to be a negative in steals and be a top 40 bat. I will list those who are negative in steals and are top 40 bats: Arenado, Giancarlo and J.D. Martinez. That’s it. Does Vlad Guerrero Jr. seem to belong in that company with no firm ETA to the majors, a garbage lineup and no history of a 40+ homer season? Shoot (not you deranged white man), he has no history of anything. Of course, he seems as can’t miss as they come. Still, where’s the steals to help his fantasy value? Even if he produces a 30/5/.300 line, he’s missing steals (and I think runs and RBIs). I’d love to see him promoted quickly and be a huge star, but there’s still no way he’s going to return anything close to his ADP price, so stamp him schmohawk and look elsewhere.