Ayo whaddup it’s ya boy Grey Albright aka the Fantasy Master Lothario aka The Guy With No Tummy Tuck But Just Looks Fine aka The Guy Who Spent Forty Minutes Googling Steely Dan Lyrics aka The Guy Who Tries To Spell Every Word On A Calculator Held Upside Down aka The Guy Who Eats A Macadamia Nut Like A Professor And Says, “I’m An Macademic” aka The Guy Who Often Wonders Whatever Happened To Ione Skye aka The Guy Who Says His Name Is Steve To Telemarketers aka The Guy Who Can Sing Any Song Off The ‘Fear Of A Black Planet’ Album aka The Dirt On Your Keyboard’s Shift Key.  I’m here with 2019 content, snitches!  Okay, I need to sit down, I’ve exhausted myself in the excitement of it all.  Well, the joke’s on my butt, I have nowhere to sit!  A quick preamble about the 2019 fantasy baseball rookie series that is coming from me over the next few weeks.  Rookies could get a post if they meet MLB eligibility requirements, less than 130 ABs or 50 IP.  That means no Roman Quinn, no Magneuris Sierra, and no Ramon Laureano.  In 2012, the first player I highlighted was Mike Trout.  That wasn’t an accident.  I said in the Mike Trout post, “He’s ranked number one for me. Numero uno. The Big Mahoff.  He’s the big Statue of Liberty in New York, not that girly one in Paris!”  Since then, I’ve attempted to make the first rookie post about a prospect that will be the top rookie for fantasy the following year.  Last year that honor went to Ronald Acuña Jr.  Yes, it’s an honor, don’t be so condescending.  This year the top fantasy prospect isn’t no ordinary man, this is the prospect I be seeing in my sleep.  Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will be your number one 2019 fantasy baseball rookie.  Will Vlad Jr. be named to the All-Century Team in 82 years or edged out by a robot with grabby hands named the Hitter-Tron that my great-great-nephew will sue, due to trademark infringement, only to find out it’s the same Hitter-Tron that once graced this little fantasy baseball blog called Razzball?  Can Vladimir Guerrero Jr. be a top 50 overall player in 2019?  Let’s stop the questions and start the answers!  Okay, one more question… Anyway, what we can expect of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. for 2019 fantasy baseball?

If I didn’t see a picture of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. from sixteen years ago with his dad, standing on 2nd base with the Expos, waving to the crowd, looking like he’s three years old, I would’ve thought Vlad Jr. is now turning 27.  Doode is a man-child.  Not to heap blame on him, but, all you people out there who are 25 years old who still get carded?  Vlad Jr. is why.  He’s ruined it for everyone whoever tried to buy beer under age.  Someone cards him, even though he looks like he’s ten years past the date for carding, and, boom, he’s underage and the store clerk now knows they have to card everyone, which then led Ice Cube to drop some of his best rhymes on Death Certificate, so, I guess, technically, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has done a lot of good.  He inspired one of Ice Cube’s best albums before he was even born.  What did you do before you were born?  Yeah, jackshit, which is also jackfruit three to twenty-seven hours after you ate it.  Any hoo!  Not many people have eyes on guys (rhyming dictionary, watch out!) before they hit the majors, so let’s develop our non-tactical senses:

I could put another 100+ GIFs in here to illustrate, but that one stood out because it was off Jack Flaherty and it was in a major league park with two outs in the 9th.  Vlad eats pressure for breakfast.  They’re called Pressurios.  They taste grrrrrrrreat.  VGJ, as he’s known in free clinics, hit .402 in 61 games in Double-A with 14 homers.  Basically, the greatest hitter to ever hit in Double-A, and because he has OCD, his BABIP was .402 too (stutterer!).  Then, in Triple-A, he hit six homers in 30 games, and .336.  Bummer, he might only be a .315 hitter in the majors with power.  He’s not Vlad Jr., he’s Vlad.  Unless they vote Acuña’s dad into the Hall of Fame for donating his sperm to Acuña, the Guerreros might be the first Hall of Fame father and son duo in the Hall.  Yes, I just said Vlad Jr. could be a Hall of Famer before he’s played one game in the majors.  Never said that before (I don’t think), but Vlad the Mini Impaler is that good.  For fantasy, he’s not as good as Acuña, though.  At least not for 2019.  He doesn’t have Acuña’s speed and that makes a difference in fantasy.  Still think The Mini Impaler has top 100 fantasy value for 2019 written on him and it’s not a rub-off tattoo.  He could easily repeat a year like Miguel Andujar just had, which was about as good as Anthony Rendon, which meant a top seven 3rd baseman.  Maybe we shouldn’t be so mad at Vlad Jr. for ruining underage drinking for decades.  If the Jays go out and sign a big free agent this offseason, and think their time is now, then Guerrero might be up out of camp.  If the Jays play it cautious, he might not be up until late-May, early-June.  My guess is he’s up around the same time as Acuña this year.  Either way, Vladdy Jr. looks like the preseason AL Rookie of the Year candidate to beat.  For 2019, I’ll give him the projections of 62/24/71/.308/3 in 487 ABs and a mid-April call.

  1. Dr Easy says:
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    And he’s currently mashing in the AFL too!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Dr Easy: Yeah, of course! Haha

      • DonnieB says:
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        Would you trade Severino at $10 for one year for Vlad at $10 for two years? Thanks Grey

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yeah

  2. Jordan Rosenblum says:
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    Dear Grey, aka the Fantasy Master Lothario aka The Guy With No Tummy Tuck But Just Looks Fine aka The Guy Who Spent Forty Minutes Googling Steely Dan Lyrics aka The Guy Who Tries To Spell Every Word On A Calculator Held Upside Down aka The Guy Who Eats A Macadamia Nut Like A Professor And Says, “I’m An Macademic” aka The Guy Who Often Wonders Whatever Happened To Ione Skye aka The Guy Who Says His Name Is Steve To Telemarketers aka The Guy Who Can Sing Any Song Off The ‘Fear Of A Black Planet’ Album aka The Dirt On Your Keyboard’s Shift Key,

    I dig the write-up. I promised my girlfriend the fantasy season was over two months ago, but I should have told her it never really ends!

    For curiosity, I wanted to share Clay Davenport’s major league equivalency in an average park for Vlad’s 2018 performance in AA and AAA. This captures the major league equivalence of his 2018 performance, ie, what the Blue Jays left on the bench,

    AA: 364/401/598. 12 homers in 239 abs. Note his AA park is a hitters’ park (4% more than hitter-friendly than average)

    AAA: 327/402/536. 6 homers in 110 abs.

    Bill James called MLE his most important contribution to sabers, plus Davenport regards MLE as a very important tool for evaluating prospect status. Davenport also notes that MLE may overrate players, especially at AA or lower, bc overperformers tend to get called up. Given these caveats, I think Vlad’s AAA MLE is reasonable if a bit optimistic and so your projection feels more or less on the mark.

    • Slappy Jack says:
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      @Jordan Rosenblum: If Soto and Acuna can hit .290… Vlad has a good shot at like .315 – .320

      • Jordan Rosenblum says:
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        @Slappy Jack: Soto’s MLE last year in the minors was quite similar to vlad’s (actually slightly better)

    • bigbear says:
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      @Jordan Rosenblum: Is that the same Bill James that said Matt Wieters could walk on water? I jest. Slightly. Seriously though, Vlad looks like he’s got a quicker bat than Wieters. And that travels.

      • Jordan Rosenblum says:
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        @bigbear: haha oh wieters…what a disappointment. For the sake of comparison, Vlad’s MLEs are much more promising than Wieters: Wieters MLE triple slash in the minors was 296/379/484, compiled at age 22 and 23 (it was around the same in AAA before he got called up). Vlad’s 2018 MLE is way better already and he’s 19. Vlad would be an ever bigger and more unforeseeable disappointment!

      • DonnieB says:
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        Grey and I both have a quicker bat than Wieters. Not proven but likely.

        • Jordan Rosenblum says:
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          @DonnieB: Grey’s MLEs are actually surprisingly solid (also an unsubstantiated inference based on nothing)

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Jordan Rosenblum: Tell your girlfriend to give us this! So what was Davenport’s Acuña and Soto projections last year at this time?

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        @Grey: Soto’s actually might be wildly unfair to ask for, but Acuña’s?

        • Jordan Rosenblum says:
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          @Grey: I’ll ask her nicely!

          Acuna’s 2017 MLE in AAA: 335/382/538

          Acuna’s combined 2017 MLE across three levels (weighted average): 308/351/502

          Actual 2018 slash: 293/366/552 (to save you a click, you probably already checked like three times today)
          2018 MLB MLE: 316/383/573 (inflated bc he is in a pitcher’s park I guess)

          Nice job inanimate MLE!

          Btw, Soto and Vlad’s 2017 MLEs aren’t too interesting (both were around league average, which is of course amazing for an 18 year old).

          Soto’s 2018 minor league MLE 310/395/620. MLB MLE: 308/418/523

          • Grey

            Grey says:
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            Nah, didn’t check, was waiting for you, bc I have total faith in internet comments! Interesting… I know Davenport is also money when it comes to projecting guys from Japan that are moving here (though I didn’t check Ohtani projections)… Good stuff, guess we’ll see…

            • Jordan Rosenblum says:
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              @Grey: Wise. If you need me to pick up a kid from school or house sit while you’re away you can totally count on me–I’m an internet commenter!

              I checked Ohtani too and unfortunately I couldn’t see hitter projections. His pitcher MLEs were solid, projecting a 3.3 era his last two seasons with significant innings (2015&2016). Also, Clay stopped doing Cuban translations in 2015, leaving us totally in the dark in what to expect from Luis Robert and victor victor victor mesa mesa :/

              Here’s the search function if anyone is curious
              (it is somewhat hard to find):

              http://www.claydavenport.com/ht/BOGAERTS19921001A.shtml

              • Grey

                Grey says:
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                Actually, was looking at joining a new gym, know anything about Flywheel?

                Thanks for the link! Yes, Cuban translations were his bread and butter too (I think), maybe was that I was thinking of and not Japan…

                • Jordan Rosenblum says:
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                  @Grey:

                  He does all of the above! I’m not sure why he stopped with Cuba — maybe bc the talent quality has diminished since the US and Cuba became FB friends (but they still don’t talk much).

                  Good luck with the search! Davenport’s translations say 1 flywheel is worth .5 lifetime fittnss, 1.5 planet fitness and .75 equinox.

                  • Grey

                    Grey says:
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                    Wow, surprised to hear it, Flywheel’s like 3 LA Fitnesses (Fitnii?)…

                    • Jordan Rosenblum says:
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                      @Grey: haha…never trust the eye test!

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      I’m using the Yelp test!

  3. Ante Galic says:
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    Grey!!!

    Great VGJ fantasy write-up!

    a. I am/will be cuckoo for VGJ. Is #77 in a standard redraft RCL too high or just right for him in 2019?

    b. Congrats to the RedSox. Another heartache for los doyers fans, but maybe it gets Roberts out of LAD? I somehow doubt it ’cause he was one step from taking them to the promised land. It was a good year for LAD, just not great.

    c. Mark Twain quote of the day for October 29

    If you don’t like the weather in New England, just wait a few minutes.

    Cheers,
    Ante

    • Slappy Jack says:
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      @Ante Galic: I didn’t know that was a Mark Twain quote, it actually gets said fairly often up here.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Ante Galic: A. That actually sounds close, I’ll prolly rank him within ten spots of that B. Get rid of Roberts! Ugh, he’s the worst C. I thought that was a quote about San Fran?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Ante Galic: C. Maybe that’s the ‘coldest winter I ever spent was summer in San Fran’ quote I’m thinking of

      • Ante Galic says:
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        @Grey: Grey!!

        I’ll look into it. It comes from ‘Notebook’ (nice title).

        Could be, I mean Twain traveled all over the world and across most if not all of the US. He commented on how at one point when he was a steam boat captain he made more money than the president of the USA!! Got to find that quote for the next episode.

        Cheers,
        Ante

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Twain was a real braggart!

  4. Chris says:
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    I need a U26 keeper in one of my league. I’m seriously considering keeping Vlad Jr instead of other options such has Eloy Jimenez, Correa, or Flaherty for next season. What do you think?

    • Slappy Jack says:
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      @Chris: Yes keep Vlad over all those guys. I don’t even need to know league size, stats used, or keeper details.
      Although Eloy is also going to be damn good.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Chris: Correa, Eloy and Flaherty are all close to Vlad… I’d likely go Vlad

  5. Slappy Jack says:
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    If VGJ rakes this spring like he has everywhere else, and there’s even a hint he breaks camp with the Jays.
    He won’t make it out of the 3rd round in mid-March drafts.

    The hype is going to be nuts, bigger than AROD, bigger than Harper

    Sadly, I don’t see how I own him in 2019 unless I get into a February draft and get a share before the hype train gets too much steam going.

    • bigbear says:
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      @Slappy Jack: Wow, 3rd round… You think so? Harper got a ton of hype even before being drafted by the Nats. Vlad’s got a lot of hype in some corners. But I will be impressed/shocked if he gets the Harper treatment nationally. Kind of hoping he hangs around until the 6-7th+ round range.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Slappy Jack: That feels aggressive unless Vlad actually breaks camp, then maybe… Acuna was pretty hyped, and you could’ve owned him after 100 overall in some leagues

  6. Razzsnowflake says:
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    In a 20 team league how do you like to draft two catchers?

  7. Peacecoast says:
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    Weeeee are the champions my Grey…..

    new show: Bodyguard. netflix.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Peacecoast: My friend was saying she was watching Bodyguard and it was good… I’m such a sucker for Brit crime dramas too, pretty pumped to watch… You’re a Red Sox fan? Bleh!

      • Peacecoast says:
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        @Grey: I live in Boston remember!

        I know you were into the Brit stuff cuz Line of Duty. First ep of Bodyguard was good!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Nice! Gonna watch next… I know you live there, but I thought for some reason you liked a different team

          • Peacecoast says:
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            @Grey: yes. The Expos were my fav team growing up.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              From Expos to Red Sox feels like selling out… Think you need to root for a perennial underdog, don’t you?

              • Peacecoast says:
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                @Grey: Can’t believe it was light out in LA during the start of the game. You sold out moving there! EAST COAST

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Dodgers are keeping it real for me by losing in the World Series every year!

  8. Dave D says:
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    @Grey:

    No doubt he will be worthy, but if the hype meter is dialed on 10, will he worth his ADP?

    We’ll see. Acuña had hype but, as you noted, Vlad may have his HOF dad’s genes, but he is not totally proven to be as good as his dad yet. I have not seen any proof that he is an exact replica or clone of vintage Vladdy Sr. At least if he indeed has better plate discipline he will be a better influence on his less gifted peers than dad.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I wish Vlad Jr stole some bases, that’s going to always hinder his fantasy game… It’s like Goldschmidt vs. Freeman — 5-7 steals are nice, 15-20 steals makes a guy insanely valuable when he has everything else…

      • Dave D says:
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        @Grey:

        Well, maybe he’ll be what Barry was to Bobby, and not what re-Pete was to Pete (1982 Fleer card reference to the rest of you!). Speaking of which I remember watching Booby as a kid towards the end of his career. Apparently he was as talented as his son but smoked and led an unhealthy lifestyle. If only he’d been macrobiotic!!!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Haha, needed to grow his only sprouts!

          • Dave D says:
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            @Grey:

            Yeah, but I’d gladly accept his stats with the 1977 “California” Angels
            103R, 37HR, 115 RBI, .264, 41SB.

            Not too shabby. If Vladdy could do that I would take him in the 1st round.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Forgot how close he came to 40/40 — twice too!

  9. Llango says:
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    Gray,
    10 player , 12 team, H2H keeper league.
    My team so far
    1st Sano
    2nd Moncada
    SS Turner
    3rd Suarez
    OF Mazara
    OF Hicks
    OF Belinger
    UTL Albies
    UTL
    Snell
    Paxton
    Kyle Tucker
    Donaldson
    Newcomb
    Escobar
    Tanaka

    Was offered Torres 4 Paxton Tucker Donaldson.

    Thoughts?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I’d take Gleyber

  10. Vladimir Guerrero III says:
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    Great write up. Loving being able to read this type of content in October. I’m thinking Vladdy Jr finishes top 60 this year, top 20 this year, and top 10 by his third year. Thoughts?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Seems fair — maybe 75, 25, 15, but anywhere in that range

  11. Harley Earl says:
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    Hey Grey,

    How about something on Ramon Laureano sometime down the road anyway? I’d like to get your analysis and insight on him!

  12. In a 5×5 OBP for only next year who would you rather have
    Mondesi or Vlad ?

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