It’s Lucky Number Slevin! No, it’s Week 7 of MLB baseball, but I swear to you every time I hear the number seven the title of that infernal movie crops up in my dome. The movie is 12 years old and I’ve never even seen it, yet still IT’S IN MY HEAD! GET OUT OF MY HEAD!! This is cathartic. Is the flick any good? It’s got Morgan Freeman in it, it can’t possibly suck, can it? I’ve said those words regarding two-start pitchers before, and they have definitely sucked a time or two. We’re gonna do our best here to parse out the sucky options for you and put you in position for much success. I must succeed!

 

Tier 1
Player Opp #1 Rank vs L/R Opp K% Opp #2 Rank vs L/R Opp K%
Carlos Carrasco @DET 19th 20.5 @HOU 10th 21.8
Zack Greinke MIL 22nd 24.2 @NYM 17th 22.8
Patrick Corbin (L) MIL 29th 20.8 @NYM 30th 26.8
Rick Porcello OAK 11th 24.4 BAL 28th 25.1
Alex Wood (L) @MIA 20th 20.2 @WSH 23rd 23.9

 

  • Patrick Corbin (ARI) – My man Corbin is in some hot water. Every fantasy baseball website on Earth has covered this, making it annoyingly difficult to deal him, but Corbin’s velocity is waaaay down. Yung Joc was talking about Patrick Corbin’s velocity when he wrote the line “it’s goin’ down for real”. His fastball began the year averaging 92 MPH, and by the end of his last start he was sitting 87-88. That ain’t normal. Corbin claims there’s nothing wrong physically, so who knows what’s really going on. Could be dead arm. Maybe he’s just tired and he doesn’t want to throw that hard anymore. Get the man some Red Bull! Or Rockstar Punched, which I am hopelessly addicted to. Mmmmm. Anyway, Corbin’s results have still be good, and this week you have to keep starting him with the two best matchups you could hope for against the bottom two teams against lefties.

 

Tier 2
Player Opp #1 Rank vs L/R Opp K% Opp #2 Rank vs L/R Opp K%
Eduardo Rodriguez (L) OAK 17th 23.3 BAL 18th 24
Lance McCullers, Jr. @LAA 3rd 19.1 CLE 13th 24.5
Sean Manaea (L) @BOS 26th 23.9 @TOR 25th 20.6
Miles Mikolas @MIN 15th 21.5 PHI 16th 26.7

 

  • Sean Manaea (OAK) – Manaea has gone two games without a QS, but a 25:3 K:BB ratio over his last four starts is still sexy. Oh, and four starts ago just so happened to be that no-hitter against the Red Sox, and look who pops up again on the schedule. As incredible as Boston is against righties, they’re susceptible to lefties. He’ll be in Fenway this time though, which doesn’t bode as well as a fly ball pitcher. Still, he’s been pretty dependable all season and you’re rolling him out with two starts.

 

Tier 3
Player Opp #1 Rank vs L/R Opp K% Opp #2 Rank vs L/R Opp K%
Yu Darvish ATL 4th 20.3 @CIN 26th 20.5
Jose Quintana (L) @ATL 1st 17.8 @CIN 8th 21.9
Nick Pivetta @BAL 28th 25.1 @STL 20th 23.5
Mike Foltynewicz CHC 7th 20.9 MIA 30th 24.3
Reynaldo Lopez @PIT 14th 19.6 TEX 23rd 26.2
Joey Lucchesi (L) COL 9th 26.8 @PIT 2nd 20.5

 

  • Nick Pivetta (PHI) – Pivetta has had some bumpy starts lately, his last start (5 IP, 0 ER, 0 BB, 7 K) notwithstanding. He’s been dropped in a bunch of leagues following said rough patch, but this two start week is a good opportunity for him to unroughen that patch, Adams. The Orioles are one of the worst teams in the league, well, in general, but especially in regard to hitting right-handed pitching. The second matchup against the Cards doesn’t scare me enough to drop him to Tier 4. He’s been strapped with a .330 BABIP despite an incredible 24.5% hard contact allowed, which is 4th best in MLB among qualified starters. He trails only Nola, Verlander, and DeGrom in that category. Each of those other guys have a BABIP under .300, so I like Pivetta’s 3.52 SIERA as more like where he should be as opposed to his 4.15 ERA.
  • Joey Lucchesi (SD) – Lucchesi has been incredible. A 2.98 ERA over 42.1 IP with a 9.78 K/9 and 2.98 BB/8 and a 3.61 SIERA don’t spell REGRESSION!!! in a horrified shrieking text-voice. He’s got some rather unfriendly matchups this week, but the Colorado numbers are a bit deceiving. The Rockies are only 24th in team wOBA on the road, so facing them in Petco is less daunting a task than heading to Coors.

 

Tier 4
Player Opp #1 Rank vs L/R Opp K% Opp #2 Rank vs L/R Opp K%
Tyler Anderson (L) @SD 22nd 25.9 @SF 21st 24.5
Julio Teheran @CHC 7th 20.9 MIA 30th 24.3
Mike Minor @SEA 8th 20.7 @CHW 9th 23.4
Andrew Heaney (L) HOU 5th 22.2 TB 4th 24
Tyler Mahle @SF 24th 25.8 CHC 7th 20.9
Trevor Williams CHW 9th 23.4 SD 29th 27.1
Junior Guerra @ARI 25th 24.6 @MIN 15th 21.5
Chris Stratton CIN 26th 20.5 COL 27th 24

 

  • Tyler Anderson (COL) – Anderson was a borderline Tier 3 guy for me this week with two very nice matchups at Petco and AT&T. He’s just a borderline top 100 starting pitcher for me though with a walk rate at 3.99 that’s “too damn high!” (said in the Jimmy McMillan voice). He misses a ton of bats (13.6% swinging strike rate) and both teams he faces strike out a lot, so there’s potential here for a really nice week. I’d look to stream him just about everywhere. And lower the rent! Rent is too damn high!!
  • Chris Stratton (SF) – Stratton, unlike Anderson, does not miss a ton of bats. His 8.2% swinging strike rate and 23.3% o-swing% leave me wondering how he has a 22.1% K%. His K-BB% is just 11.1%, but this is as good a week as you’ll find to fire him up if you’re looking for a deeper streamer. The Reds are just plain bad, and we just discussed with Lucchesi that the Rockies aren’t frightening when they travel. After this week, Stratton could be struttin’.

 

Tier 5
Player Opp #1 Rank vs L/R Opp K% Opp #2 Rank vs L/R Opp K%
Mike Leake TEX 23rd 26.2 DET 19th 20.5
Daniel Mengden @BOS 1st 18.3 @TOR 5th 23.9
Ian Kennedy TB 21st 22.2 NYY 2nd 24
Ryan Yarbrough @KC 18th 16 @LAA 3rd 19.1
Jake Odorizzi SEA 8th 20.7 MIL 22nd 24.2
Francisco Liriano (L) CLE 19th 20.5 @SEA 3rd 18.4
Mike Fiers CLE 13th 24.5 @SEA 8th 20.7
Ty Blach (L) CIN 8th 21.9 COL 9th 26.8
Sal Romano @SF 24th 25.8 CHC 7th 20.9
Andrew Cashner PHI 16th 26.7 @BOS 1st 18.3
Jaime Garcia (L) @NYM 30th 26.8 OAK 17th 23.3
Wade LeBlanc (L) @MIN 6th 25.3 DET 7th 18.2
Wei-Yin Chen (L) LAD 27th 22 @ATL 1st 17.8

 

  • Daniel Mengden (OAK) – Mr. Mustache is really fun to watch, literally only because of the mustache. It’s a strong, hypnotizing bit of hair. He looks like a trapeze artist. I can’t believe opposing batters can even focus on the baseball with a lip rug like that. Sadly, they do tend to hit the pitches he throws, and he has a mediocre 4.06 ERA and 6.70 K/9 through 44.1 IP. He’s a low upside option to begin with, and this week he gets two rough matchups against Boston (at Fenway) and at the Homer Dome aka Rogers Centre in Toronto. As a fly ball pitcher with a near 40% hard contact allowed, I would sit him this week with the greatest of ease.

 

All starters are probable as of Friday evening.

 

You can find Dokken on Twitter @NathanDokken

   
  1. Gfhyde says:
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    I can start Stratton this week or pickup Minor or start Paxton @DET. It’s a points league. Right now I have Paxton in there. What do you think?

    • Dokken

      Dokken says:
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      @Gfhyde: I think you have it right. Pax is must-start right now.

      • gfhyde says:
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        @Dokken:

        Just seeing this now. Thanks!

  2. The ROOK ? says:
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    Could use some quick advice here before someone else has the same idea lol … Im in a 10 team league h2h weekly al/nl points league we start 5 SP and 2 RP my pitchers are

    Arrieta, Tallion, Dallas K, Berrios, McCullers, T Skaggs, Tyson ross SO those 7 pitchers for 5 starting spots MY RP’s are Morrow and Chapman ….. Thats my staff…. Would you drop any of these guys for Jack Flaherty. I know Skaggs doesn’t go deep but he’s on a good team so he seems to be getting the wins which are worth 7 points and a loss is -4 and Ross has been pretty consistent in my league atleast so far but on a bad team so his wins will be limited compared to skaggs but ross seems to get more inn and k’s. I figure one of these 2 you would have cho0se which is why I explained these 2. If it helps Skaggs weekly points in my league so far have been 34 , 16.2 , – 5.7 , 35.3 , 10.8 and 14.5 While Ross has been 22.2 , 21 , 26.9 , -1 , 18.8 and 1.8 plus his points tonight hopefully he does well. btw I also have C-Mart on the DL Thx for the advice !!

    • Dokken

      Dokken says:
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      @The ROOK ?: Wins are super fluky so I would only consider win potential as a tiebreaker among pitchers. I like Skaggs and Ross a fair bit, but Flaherty gets the nod for me over them. I have Skaggs ranked the lowest, but he’s just two spots behind Ross so either one you want to drop isn’t a huge difference in my eyes. It also looks like Flaherty has the potential to gain a second start this week, which helps his case.

  3. FrankGrimes says:
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    Miles appears to have lost his two start week.
    Flaherty is getting the nod on Tuesday.

    You sold me on the Anderson stream.

    • Dokken

      Dokken says:
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      @FrankGrimes: Hopefully Anderson works out! Shame about Mikolas. That Cardinals rotation is all over the place right now!

    • STG says:
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      @FrankGrimes: what is everyone’s thoughts on Flaherty?

      • Dokken

        Dokken says:
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        @STG: He’s got a shot to be a top 30 option rather quickly. Three solid pitches with typically strong control.

  4. Alex says:
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    I ended up trading Corbin and Buehler for grienke in a H2H league. Opens up a streaming spot and I plan on picking up ryu and stashing him on the DL. Corbin’s velocity drop gave me too many worries and Buehler will have his innings limit this year I assume around the time fantasy playoffs start. At the end felt more confident in Greinke going forward since he’s done it before.

    • Dokken

      Dokken says:
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      @Alex: It’s really funny how Corbin’s value just evaporated overnight. Well, not funny, more sad, but you know what I mean. I do have more confidence in Greinke at the moment. I moved him one spot ahead of Corbin in this week’s top 100 SP.

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