Two Startapalooza, Week 7: Not Failing To Succeed

It’s Lucky Number Slevin! No, it’s Week 7 of MLB baseball, but I swear to you every time I hear the number seven the title of that infernal movie crops up in my dome. The movie is 12 years old and I’ve never even seen it, yet still IT’S IN MY HEAD! GET OUT OF MY HEAD!! This is cathartic. Is the flick any good? It’s got Morgan Freeman in it, it can’t possibly suck, can it? I’ve said those words regarding two-start pitchers before, and they have definitely sucked a time or two. We’re gonna do our best here to parse out the sucky options for you and put you in position for much success. I must succeed!

• Patrick Corbin (ARI) – My man Corbin is in some hot water. Every fantasy baseball website on Earth has covered this, making it annoyingly difficult to deal him, but Corbin’s velocity is waaaay down. Yung Joc was talking about Patrick Corbin’s velocity when he wrote the line “it’s goin’ down for real”. His fastball began the year averaging 92 MPH, and by the end of his last start he was sitting 87-88. That ain’t normal. Corbin claims there’s nothing wrong physically, so who knows what’s really going on. Could be dead arm. Maybe he’s just tired and he doesn’t want to throw that hard anymore. Get the man some Red Bull! Or Rockstar Punched, which I am hopelessly addicted to. Mmmmm. Anyway, Corbin’s results have still be good, and this week you have to keep starting him with the two best matchups you could hope for against the bottom two teams against lefties.

• Sean Manaea (OAK) – Manaea has gone two games without a QS, but a 25:3 K:BB ratio over his last four starts is still sexy. Oh, and four starts ago just so happened to be that no-hitter against the Red Sox, and look who pops up again on the schedule. As incredible as Boston is against righties, they’re susceptible to lefties. He’ll be in Fenway this time though, which doesn’t bode as well as a fly ball pitcher. Still, he’s been pretty dependable all season and you’re rolling him out with two starts.

• Nick Pivetta (PHI) – Pivetta has had some bumpy starts lately, his last start (5 IP, 0 ER, 0 BB, 7 K) notwithstanding. He’s been dropped in a bunch of leagues following said rough patch, but this two start week is a good opportunity for him to unroughen that patch, Adams. The Orioles are one of the worst teams in the league, well, in general, but especially in regard to hitting right-handed pitching. The second matchup against the Cards doesn’t scare me enough to drop him to Tier 4. He’s been strapped with a .330 BABIP despite an incredible 24.5% hard contact allowed, which is 4th best in MLB among qualified starters. He trails only Nola, Verlander, and DeGrom in that category. Each of those other guys have a BABIP under .300, so I like Pivetta’s 3.52 SIERA as more like where he should be as opposed to his 4.15 ERA.
• Joey Lucchesi (SD) – Lucchesi has been incredible. A 2.98 ERA over 42.1 IP with a 9.78 K/9 and 2.98 BB/8 and a 3.61 SIERA don’t spell REGRESSION!!! in a horrified shrieking text-voice. He’s got some rather unfriendly matchups this week, but the Colorado numbers are a bit deceiving. The Rockies are only 24th in team wOBA on the road, so facing them in Petco is less daunting a task than heading to Coors.

• Tyler Anderson (COL) – Anderson was a borderline Tier 3 guy for me this week with two very nice matchups at Petco and AT&T. He’s just a borderline top 100 starting pitcher for me though with a walk rate at 3.99 that’s “too damn high!” (said in the Jimmy McMillan voice). He misses a ton of bats (13.6% swinging strike rate) and both teams he faces strike out a lot, so there’s potential here for a really nice week. I’d look to stream him just about everywhere. And lower the rent! Rent is too damn high!!
• Chris Stratton (SF) – Stratton, unlike Anderson, does not miss a ton of bats. His 8.2% swinging strike rate and 23.3% o-swing% leave me wondering how he has a 22.1% K%. His K-BB% is just 11.1%, but this is as good a week as you’ll find to fire him up if you’re looking for a deeper streamer. The Reds are just plain bad, and we just discussed with Lucchesi that the Rockies aren’t frightening when they travel. After this week, Stratton could be struttin’.

• Daniel Mengden (OAK) – Mr. Mustache is really fun to watch, literally only because of the mustache. It’s a strong, hypnotizing bit of hair. He looks like a trapeze artist. I can’t believe opposing batters can even focus on the baseball with a lip rug like that. Sadly, they do tend to hit the pitches he throws, and he has a mediocre 4.06 ERA and 6.70 K/9 through 44.1 IP. He’s a low upside option to begin with, and this week he gets two rough matchups against Boston (at Fenway) and at the Homer Dome aka Rogers Centre in Toronto. As a fly ball pitcher with a near 40% hard contact allowed, I would sit him this week with the greatest of ease.

All starters are probable as of Friday evening.

You can find Dokken on Twitter @NathanDokken