RazzBallers,
Over reactions in fantasy sports, especially baseball, are difficult to battle.
We always want to get the next breakout player, so we overreact to Spring Training performances and reach for them in drafts.
We worry about our drafted players starting slow, especially the early rounders, so we make impulsive moves.
We over react to a month into the season when we need to remember this is a marathon and not a sprint.. That is where we are not in most fantasy leagues.
Enter Jesus Luzardo and his 7.94 ERA with a .417 BABIP. He currently has a 30.6 K% with career lows 5.1 BB% and 31.7 HardHit%. I think he’s just getting very unlucky and will return to form. Referencing Baseball Savant MLB Percentile Rankings above, there is a lot of red here with a lot to love. He is an arm I would be looking to trade for in a league if a manager is nervous about the early-season results; Don’t let that manager be you. Be patient.
Now onto the rankings. Not a lot of Studs in action this week, so we will try to decipher the best of the bottom half to help you have a successful week.
Start Your Studs–
Nolan McLean: vs MIN, vs COL – Anticipating back-to-back QS from him this week in these matchups.
Dylan Cease: @LAA, vs CLE – A lot to love about Cease right now. 36% K is a career high for him, but so is the 13.5% BB.
Best Of the Rest–
Aaron Nola: @CHC, @ATL – He should be fine here, but I’m never a fan of back-to-back starts vs the same team.
Kyle Bradish: @KC, vs BOS
Emerson Hancock: vs ATH, @STL – Big week for the potential Waiver Wire add of the year.
Seth Lugo: vs BAL, vs LAA
Shota Imanaga: vs PHI, @LAD – Imanaga deserves to be ranked high every week, but every arm gets some caution when playing the Dodgers.
Best Of the Leftovers–
Bryce Elder: @WSH, vs PHI – I’m starting him in both matchups this week.
Max Meyer: vs STL, @SF
Connelly Early: vs NYY, @BAL – Solid tests this week, but I’m still starting him.
(Two) Start At Your Own Risk– (High Risk/High Reward)
Jesus Luzardo: @CHC, @ATL – Let’s hope the bounce back starts this week.
Spencer Arrighetti: @CLE, vs NYY – He could kill your whip but win you K.
Jack Flaherty: @BOS, @CIN – I’m nervous, but these are good matchups. Limit the walks.
Mick Abel: @NYM, @TB
Sonny Gray: vs DET, @BAL
Slade Cecconi: vs HOU, @TOR – Too many walks, but he has been underperforming.
Reynaldo Lopez: @WSH, vs PHI
Justin Wrobleski: @COL, vs CHC – Two matchups vs teams who strike out a lot.
Rhett Lowder: @TB, vs DET
Chad Patrick: @DET, vs PIT
Do Not Start– Not a lot here I would start, but maybe for one matchup only.
Luis Gil: @BOS, @HOU – He could be solid if the limits the long ball @BOS.
Carmen Mlodzinski: @TEX, @MIL
Keider Montero: vs MIL, @CIN
Foster Griffin: vs ATL, @CHW
Tyler Mahle: vs LAD, vs MIA
Kumar Rocker: vs PIT, vs ATH
Sean Burke: @ARI, vs WSH – I don’t hate the late week start vs WSH if you need an arm.
Jack Kochanowicz: vs TOR, @KC
Michael McGreevy: @MIA, vs SEA
Colin Rea: vs PHI, @LAD
J.T. Ginn: @SEA, @TEX
Jake Irvin: vs ATL, @CHW
Colton Gordon: @CLE, vs NYY
Jose Quintana: vs LAD, @NYM – Never
Tomoyuki Sugano: vs SD, @NYM – Rockies
Would you start Arrigghetti at Cleveland?
1. Does this start seem confident?
Yahoo has an inning limitation and am plus 44.
Is it too early to worry?
Thanks!!
I don’t love the Cle start since JRam is heating up. I think he cruises vs the Jankees though.
I’m seeing Kyle Harrison listed twice. @Det and Pirates. I don’t usually trust CBS nor do I really know what to think of Kyle Harrison. It’s a H2H pts league though. I’d use him over O’Brien. Any thoughts ?
I think they are not bad starts, but wonder if he goes 5 innings. Knee and wrist discomfort and I could see a couple 4.2 outings from him.
H2H 5×5
Ascraft @ Tex or 2 start Reynaldo Lopez v Phil @ Wash?
I think I’d go Lopez. Sorry for the late reply.
What’s your take on Wheeler if you were in a H2H league? 12 teams. Not too worried about his performance in May or even June.
Or would you try to move him for a bat….Altuve? Aroz? Seiya? Or is that unrealistic?
I think his upside clears those bats. He’s looked good other than some control issues on his last rehab start.
Where would you slot Detmers? His start got pushed to Monday, so he’ll be a two-starter.
I like Detmers to have two good outings. Is Toronto back or was Ryne Nelson just that awful? Detmers is top of the Best of the Leftovers and startable for both matchups.
Hi,
1, Who do you value more Grant Holmes or Deitmers?
2. Any thoughts on what it would take to get McLean? For example, Merrill plus Warren plus Messick’s or Merrill plus Messick plus Abel, is that too much?
Thank you!
1. I’d say Detmers.
2. I don’t know if you can get him without a massive overpay this early in the season.
Makes perfect sense! Thanks!
Would you drop Pepiot 60 day IL, no IL slot or Harrison for Cameron?
Without an IL slot I would not hold Pepiot. I have a bad feeling whenever someone gets an injection and delays a rehab assignment.
Why the hate for Foster Griffin? Streamonator likes both starts. ESPN loves him even more. Not exciting but seems like a high floor.
He’s facing two of the top 10 home run hitting teams in the MLB and given up a long ball in 3 out of 4 starts. That was my reasoning behind it.
Thanks. That’s helpful
10tm 6×6 OBP and QS. 12 start max
Meyer over Lopez for this week due to match ups or is Meyer the better pitcher ROS?
Thanks!
He’s ranked higher this week due to matchups. I could see Meyer being ranked higher ROS over Lopez but it all comes down to if Meyer will hold up all year. He hasn’t thrown more than 64.2 innings in the majors. He may have innings managed later in the year.
Thanks!
I just dealt Skubal and Jeremiah Jackson for Luzardo and Schwarber.
The Tigers fan in me is crying inside trading away Skubal.
Speaking of Do Not Start, time to show McClanahan the door?
Expectations have to be lowered for him due to the injury history. If he can get thru this year healthy then next year is the year I’d want shares of him. It takes a while for pitchers to come back from that lengthy of an absence. Starting him is definitely matchup dependent, and I don’t see him getting many QS chances.
Would you try and trade Massick? Are there a couple of SPs that you would target?
Does Trout have any trade value? Is there a pitcher that you would target for him?
Have a great Sunday and as always thank you so much!!
I wouldn’t mind moving Messick if someone is asking about him. If you start offering him in trades people will think you’re trying to sell high so you won’t get good value. I’d update the trade block and see who asks about him.
Regarding Trout, it’s kind of the same situation. We all are worried about the injury, but the draft capital we got him for was pretty cheap compared to the production. He’s a hold for me but I am nervous.
I so appreciate all your help!!!
Any thoughts on what would it take to get McLean? Do you think Merrill plus Warren would get him? Merrill plus Warren plus Early or Abel?