I think I need to clear something up about how the Dive Bar here works. Most weeks, whoever I’ve put in The Top Shelf, I’ve put there because they’re going to do better for you over the course of the week than any one-start pitcher in the same span. Pitchers don’t always do what I tell them, of course. Even the supposedly-reliable ones. At times, someone like Robbie Ray has a crap week, while someone like Paul Blackburn is inexplicably lights-out. Choices have to be made, here, and that’s part of how I make that call. Hope it helps.
This week, the best one-start pitcher in my estimation is Carlos Rodon. He’d slot in right about where Jameson Taillon is on this list. Obviously, that’d still be a good play, in the called-out section of The Well. My focus, of course, is on double-dippers, hence the nearly-dozen who are listed above that spot. All right, let’s dive into the pitchers. Shall we?
The bold pitchers below are the most extreme version of each section. The best of the Top Shelf, the safest of the Well, the worst of the Bar Mat.
The Top Shelf
| Pitcher | First Start | Second Start |
|---|---|---|
| Robbie Ray, SEA | BAL(TU) | OAK(SU) |
| Kevin Gausman, TOR | BOS(MO) | TB(SA) |
| George Kirby, SEA | BAL(MO) | OAK(SA) |
| Alek Manoah, TOR | BOS(WE) | TB(SU) |
| Zack Wheeler, PHI | ATL(TU) | STL(SU) |
| Lucas Giolito, CHW | @LAA(MO) | @SF(SU) |
| Luis Garcia, HOU | @NYM(TU) | LAA(SU) |
| Tarik Skubal, DET | @SF(TU) | KC(SU) |
| Frankie Montas, OAK | @NYY(TU) | @SEA(SU) |
| Jordan Montgomery, NYY | OAK(MO) | @CLE(SA) |
Notes
- Have you ever seen better matchups in a two-start week for any pitchers than Robbie Ray and George Kirby have this week? My god, it isn’t even fair. Home-and-homes against the 2nd- and 9th-worst scoring offenses in baseball (also the lowest and 3rd-lowest team batting averages in the AL)? Rack ’em up.
- Flip side of that, yeah, Frankie Montas is here. He’s very good, and though you can’t count on him for wins given the offense behind him, that start at Seattle opposite Robbie Ray is going to be a helluva pitcher’s duel. 100% worth it despite the early-week stop in the Bronx.
The Well
| Pitcher | First Start | Second Start |
|---|---|---|
| Charlie Morton, ATL | @PHI(TU) | @CIN(SU) |
| Jameson Taillon, NYY | OAK(TU) | @CLE(SU) |
| Shane Baz, TB | MIL(WE) | @TOR(SU) |
| Sonny Gray, MIN | @CLE(MO) | BAL(SA) |
| Pablo Lopez, MIA | @STL(MO) | @WSH(SU) |
| Ross Stripling, TOR | BOS(TU) | TB(SA) |
| Triston McKenzie, CLE | MIN(MO) | NYY(SA) |
| Luis Castillo, CIN | @CHC(TU) | ATL(SU) |
| Eric Lauer, MIL | @TB(TU) | @PIT(SU) |
| Clayton Kershaw, LAD | @COL(TU) | SD(SU) |
| Martin Perez, TEX | @KC(MO) | @NYM(SU) |
| Kris Bubic, KC | TEX(MO) | @DET(SU) |
| Adam Wainwright, STL | MIA(MO) | @PHI(SU) |
Notes
- Jameson Taillon will pitch opposite Montas, and while Taillon is likely to get better run support than Montas is, it’s still likely to be a low-scoring affair.
- As I said in the intro, Carlos Rodon (one start this week) would slot in alongside Taillon, a toss-up between them. All other one-start pitchers would line up behind Shane Baz this week, so take that into account when planning your lineup for the week.
The Bar Mat
| Pitcher | First Start | Second Start |
|---|---|---|
| Zach Plesac, CLE | MIN(TU) | NYY(SU) |
| Jose Quintana, PIT | @WSH(TU) | MIL(SU) |
| Devin Smeltzer, MIN | @CLE(TU) | BAL(SU) |
| Tyler Wells, BAL | @SEA(MO) | @MIN(SU) |
| Paul Blackburn, OAK | @NYY(MO) | @SEA(SA) |
| Keegan Thompson, CHC | CIN(TU) | BOS(SU) |
| Erick Fedde, WSH | PIT(MO) | MIA(SU) |
| Tyler Anderson, LAD | @COL(MO) | SD(SA) |
| Tyler Beede, PIT | @WSH(MO) | MIL(SA) |
| Tyler Danish, BOS | @TOR(MO) | @CHC(SU) |
| Chad Kuhl, COL | LAD(MO) | ARI(SU) |
Notes
- As per usual, don’t start these guys if you can help it, and anyone bold here is much more likely to hurt you than help.
- I would not want to be Chad Kuhl this week…
Giolito sucks ass
Hey Steve,
Who would you pick to play this week, Mikolas or Manoah?
And is Montgomery a two starter this week?
Hi steve,
1. would you try and trade Pablo Lopez? if you think that i should, please suggest some pitchers to try and get in a trade? i appreciate the question is quite broad. i would be willing to also add Christopher Morel of the Cubs.
2. you think that should sit Tyler Anderson at Colorado? am i correct?
3. I sat Cristian Javier at NY. of course, he pitched a no hitter for seven innings and I lost 43 points. Is there anyway that i could have predicted that outcome or that is baseball? is there any lesson to learn to help me moving forward?
Thanks!
martin
thanks!
1. I don’t think there’s any pressing need to trade Lopez. If you get a great offer, take it… but he’s not someone I’m necessarily looking to cut loose.
2. Yes. I am saying that.
3. Bruv, if I could tell the future I wouldn’t be writing a column at Razzball. Sorry.
thank you so
much!
appreciated the insight and wit! have a great evening!
martin
Very good info. Thanks Steve.
Kirby was available in our 10 Team H2H Points League, so he is now mine.
It looks like Lauer is not going to start twice this week. At least according to Yahoo, as he is pitching on Wed. and then on the Fourth. Do you have other news? If that is wrong, I will grab him for the two starts in one of our leagues at least.
And of course I dropped Taillon last week because, well he wasn’t doing well as of late, but I wish I had him back. At least he’s on Waivers until tomorrow, so no one gets him. I can live with that.
Thanks again Steve.
No that looks like newer info than I had this morning. Lauer going Wed and 7/4, not Tues and 7/3. Good catch.
Oh and good pickup on Kirby! Of course we’ll have to see what any suspensions coming for Winker, Julio, and JP could mean… still… the O’s and the A’s? No-brainer.