Timing really worked out on this one. This system lost some shine when it shipped out Gabriel Moreno the other day, and to a lesser extent, Jordan Groshans to Miami last season, but neither makes a dent in the long-term build of the organization, which remains impressive from top to bottom.
1. LHP Ricky Tiedemann | 20 | AA | 2023
At 6’4” 220 lbs with an upper-nineties fastball, Ricky Tiedemann has been bullying batters throughout his baseball life but took it up a notch in 2022, traversing three levels of minor league play (78.2 innings) with 117 strikeouts and a 0.86 WHIP. He was every bit as dominant in 11 Double-A innings (0.82 WHIP) as he had been in 30 Low-A innings (0.80 WHIP). The only real worry here is that he won’t get tested until the majors, but as bugaboos go, that’s a preferable one. He’ll likely need better command, especially off-speed command, to survive big league lineups a couple times through, and he won’t need either of those traits in place to dominate again in the minors. The Jays put him on an aggressive timeline seeking someone to challenge him in 2022 and might do the same this year if they decide he’ll need to develop in the majors anyway. He’ll turn 21 in August and is on track to celebrate that milestone in Toronto.
2. SS Addison Barger | 23 | AAA | 2023
So just as I’m finishing up his blurb, this budgie futhermucker shoves in and shuts down my computer. Destroys it, actually. No lie. I am in the market for a new desktop. Probably less “in the market” and more “snapping up the next semi-reasonable replacement I can find.” Anywho, Barger will always be remembered as the man who ended that tower, a faithful workhorse for something like a decade. On the field, Barger enjoyed a dream season in 2022, thriving at three levels and setting himself for a big league gig in 2023. His wRC+ scores of 149, 147, 192 tell the story of a season that ended with eight molten-hot games in Triple-A. A left-handed hitter at 6’0” 175 lbs, Barger cut his strikeouts at each new level, which allowed the solid natural power to play in game. He was a sixth round pick out of high school in 2018. Real developmental win for the Jays. Feels a little underrated in a general fantasy sense.
3. OF Gabriel Martinez | 20 | A+ | 2024
Once in a while, an obvious prospect will pop, the dynasty world will notice, and the prospect will nonetheless remain under the radar for most leagues. I don’t know when the report was submitted now that Fangraphs’ schedule has gone the way of Napster, but they’ve got him at a 40+ Future Value. You have to buy the book to know that that means. Impossible for me to explain it here, except to say that it’s inaccurate to say that Martinez is tracking as a well below average major leaguer after posting a 141 wRC+ as a 19-year-old in High-A. He’s not the biggest guy at 6’0” 170 lbs, but Martinez generates power with an athletic swing that allows him to limit the strikeouts (15%) despite holding nothing back when he explodes through the hitting zone.
4. SS Orelvis Martinez | 21 | AA | 2024
From one end of the developmental outcomes spectrum to, well, maybe not the other but certainly a less shiny spot than the one occupied by Tiedemann’s 2022, we find Orelvis Martinez, who hit 30 home runs as a 20-year-old at Double-A but batted just .203 with a 28.5 percent strikeout rate to get there. It’s not a disqualifying season by any stretch, but it’s a continuation of his outcomes in High-A to finish up 2021, when he hit nine home runs in 27 games but batted .214. Probably shouldn’t have graduated the league and opened the following year a level up, but that’s Captain Hindsight talking. Makes enough sense to graduate a gifted 19-year-old coming off a 99 wRC+ and an off-season of work, and I suppose he might graduate Double-A on the strength of his 96 wRC+ against older players. On the other hand, he got worse throughout the season, outcomes-wise, batting .184 from August 1 through season’s end, so his best path probably leads back to Double-A. If he dominates, that’s great, but the risk is that if he struggles again, it’ll wash away most of the remaining buzzy-prospect sheen.
5. 1B OF Spencer Horwitz | 25 | AAA | 2023
His name is close enough to howitzer that you’d expect this guy to have a cannon for a throwing arm. Instead, Horwitz is a bat-first prospect who hits left-handed, throws right, and could work his way onto the big league roster early in 2023. A 24th round pick in 2019, Horwitz will never have much room for error. Another .363 slugging percentage like the one he posted across 44 games at Triple-A would likely be enough to keep him confidential for a long time. He’s ranked fifth on the chance that an early injury creates a chance for him, but he’d always be among my first cuts if he lands on a roster of mine.
6. OF Dasan Brown | 20 | A+ | 2025
In 2021, Brown couldn’t hit water if he fell out of a water bottle processing plant. Thus, he mostly disappeared from the dynasty baseball consciousness. One thing about 80-grade runners: they’re never out of chances for our purposes. Jorge Mateo is a good example. Adalberto Mondesi, too. We’ll see how the new rules affect the running game, but it’s hard to imagine they change the fact that steals make the roto-world go ’round. Roger Cedeno popped into my head while writing that sentence. Anyway, Brown still strikes out too much (28 percent), but he still produced a 130 wRC+ and .392 on base percentage with 11 steals in 40 games as a 20-year-old at High-A. I think it gives Brown a tiny little boost that the organization seems committed to fielding strong outfield defenses.
7. RHP Yosver Zulueta | 25 | AAA | 2023
Tricky one here. Zulueta has extreme upside but lacks experience due to a series of extremely unfortunate events that include Tommy John surgery and a torn ACL. Plus there’s the whole defecting from Cuba thing. It all adds up to an incredible talent with a high-nineties fastball who could probably help in the bullpen a whole lot sooner than he could help in the rotation.
8. SS Tucker Toman | 19 | CPX | 2026
The son of a college coach, Toman grew up to be a switch hitter with solid swings from either side. The Blue Jays selected him 77th overall in this year’s draft and paid an over-slot bonus to sign him. He fits well with what this organization has prized the past several years: middle-infield hands with plate skills, even if the players aren’t particularly strong or fast, which describes Toman well enough at the moment.
9. 2B Cade Doughty | 22 | A | 2025
Doughty played three years for LSU and struck out a total of 89 times in 133 games. He drew 56 walks and hit 30 home runs. Is that something you might be interested in? At 6’1” 205 lbs, Doughty doesn’t pop off the screen in any particular way, but the sum of his parts has always produced plus outcomes, so Toronto selected him 78th overall in this year’s draft.
10. OF Devonte Brown | 22 | A | 2025
So here’s a guy who caught my eye. I doubt you’ll find him on any lists, but I can’t wait to see him against upper-minors arms. It’s not like Brown comes out of nowhere. He did go undrafted this season but had slugged .500 for two straight seasons in the ACC at NC State, an impressive enough feat for any young hitter. It makes perfect sense that Toronto wouldn’t overlook a productive, patient bat with only medium-good tools. That describes most of this list.
Thanks for reading!
Barriera not on list. kid throws hard and is athletic. your thoughts? thanks for all you do for us roto heads
am looking at him vs snelling, ferris, prielipp at 45th overall in a 30 teamer right now.
it’s almost certainly TINSTAPP though.
went him at 45th, got ferris and harrington later too. needed long term pitching depth, got 3 pretty highly real life drafted guys.
Hey, weird aside, I clicked on this article right as the guy on the podcast I am listening too said “itch”, anyway, nerdy question, anyone you seen draft or own these guys? Ethan Salas, Emmanuel Bonilla, Brainer Guerrero, Luis Morales, Robert Gala and Luis Guanipa — how soon does Salas go in FYPDs?
Gracias
got that 30 teamer 6 round slow draft starting shortly, am going over your posts but i’m quite behind currently. what’s best spot (besides yours that’ll be later) for 1st year lists? prospects live got more paywalled up than previously (team top 30’s you get 10 not 30 unless paywall). i got this link here which is a lot of sites including your stuff. but obviously really don’t want to miss any names prior to you finishing your team by team lists
https://fantasyrundown.com/2023-mlb-top-prospects/
do have obviously the top 15 from 2022 page in july and top 100 post draft for the AL west teams not done yet as some of those might pop up in that as not owned.
Where did you hear about Tiedemann first last year? Mine was Ben Badler on the BA pod but it seems these days you can get such a monster advantage in dynasty leagues getting guys like this in March and April and either flip or hold, Chourio, Tovar, Endy, etc.
Seems TOR has some strong young arms, any worry still in AL East these days or is that done with now that NYY is the only semi scary offense? Used to avoid TOR pitchers in dynasty.
Been reading all your lists, huge to be out this early in the offseason.
I’m not sure where I heard about Tiedemann early, but some of the finds just come from relentless tracking of trends, checking every minor league box score every day (wild habit), watching specific guys w intent on milb.tv. I’m pretty quick at finding the exact at bats or innings I need to see.
If it wasn’t just the grind, might’ve been Geoff Pontes on Twitter. He gets great video early. Knows the balance between real and fantasy as well as anybody.
I do subscribe to BA and follow pretty much the whole echo chamber on Twitter. A lot of the chamber is muted tbf but guys like Pontes bring a ton of value to the timeline.
Jesse Roche does a great job collating MiLB box score standouts on a day to day basis on Twitter too.
And I totally agree on the advantage of setting the curve by being early. You can always drop a guy if he slumps or the chamber never shows him the rankings love (like G Martinez), but once the new hotness is on a roster, he’s basically gone for everyone else.
I’ve come to really love getting these out before most sources. Fresh snow research feeling is a rush.
Badler is great too. And Josh Norris, who was first to trumpet the Chourio breakout.
I also think the preseason can be big. Tovar is a good example. If a teeny bopper is playing a lot and holding his own in spring training or hanging around after most cuts, I lean in a lil bit.
in case not known that g.pontes he’s mentioning was ex ralph prospetor here for years (just prior to itch actually). co-founder prospectslive.
Hi Itch! Sorry to hear about the desktop. Hope all is well with you and the family. Moving forward hope Barger make it to the show this year I could use a 3B off the bench. How much longer Bichette leads off for the Jays? Plays SS? Seems father time caught up with him in 2022.
Thanks, junior56!
My laptop went down yesterday for a while to kick off a full-blown Armageddon time inside my mind : D
Happy it bounced back after the reboot.
Still need a tower tho. Never been a laptop guy.
I can’t imagine the Jays moving Bichette off shortstop anytime soon, but I do think they might try Varsho or Merrifield at the top.
Like, probably Bo to begin the year but if he scuffles like last year, they can move him around the lineup.
George Springer is the leadoff hitter for the Jays, and likely will be for the foreseeable future, and Bo put up 4.5 fWAR on the strength of a 129 wRC+ in 2022, so I’m not sure what the “father time has caught up with him” business is all about…
Hey Itch,
Just curious what you would see as Barger’s role with the Blue Jays. Obviously, he’s not going to pay SS. Any chance at 2B? Or is he going to be a utility/bench bat guy?
Yeah probably a bench utility bat, but this team found a lot a time for Santiago Espinal in a similar role. Was pre-Whit tbf, but Barger is kind of perfect for them as a still-needed lefty bat w a little flexibility.
Thanks Itch. One more quick question if I may. Where would you put the ceiling for Barger? Stats or similar player by name is fine. Thanks!
Morning Itch, great stuff as always.
I have a team with 20 milb spots and I hate being saturated. Looking for two or three guys to cut in the new year so I can add pop ups as they pop. Are there a couple names you’re okay dropping from this list?
Joey Wiemer
Pedro Leon
Aaron Zavala
Dustin Harris
Andy Pages
Yiddi Cappe
And to tie it in with this article, would you drop any of them for a Barger or a Gabbo Martinez? Thanks, love your work.
Thanks, Brett!
I’d be okay dropping Cappe, Harris or Zavala if I saw someone I really wanted, but it’s tough bc they should all have some trade value.
I’d take both Blue Jays over Cappe.
Good morning!
Looking to snag a minor league Catcher who can come up early/mid year and make an impact in the same way MJ Melendez did last year. I picked him up for $1 with the last pick of the draft and am hoping to do the same this year.
I had my eyes on Endy Rodriguez, but PIT signed Hedges. Then I moved to Bo Naylor and of course they signed Zunino.
Any recommendations?
Ignore this duplicate. Sorry!
Thank you for the response, Endy it is!
Morning Itch, thanks for the great stuff, as always. I am happy to see that you have at least some faith in Orelvis. I’ve been sitting on him for a while in a league where about 100 minor leaguers are kept. He’s kinda all over prospect lists right now. He has a very loud carrying tool, so hopefully they will start him again at AA and he can make some progress on the hit tool.
Thanks, fivepoundbass!
Yeah he’s a divisive dude on this rankings set. Interesting to see where he lands through the various lenses.
Hi Itch!
Would you hang on to Orelvis in a 14 team league with limited (13) farm system spots? Would be dropping to get an extra farm draft pick.
Thanks!
Hi, Prawn Lord!
I’d probably hold him to see how he opens the season. He’s probably not a top 182 prospect for me right now, but the name value is still present, I think. I’d offer him around the league if I could. Might be able to trade him during the draft if you see someone on the board you really want.
Good morning! Question about catchers –
Last year I snagged MJ Melendez for $1 with the last pick in my keeper league (2 catcher league). This year, I am hoping to do the same thing.
Based on your prior columns I had either Bo Naylor or Endy Rodriguez pegged as my picks. Of course, CLE signed Zunino and PIT signed Hedges, so that sucks. Anyone other catchers who you think will get an early/mid year promotion and be an impact bat the same way Melendez was last year?
Thanks!!
Fun question, thanks!
I’d probably still pick Endy here. He’ll force the issue early if he’s hitting like last year, and like Melendez he doesn’t have to catch to contribute. He’s their second best outfield option right now in my opinion, and their best DH. The Rich Hill signing isn’t much in the real world, but it’s more evidence that Pittsburgh would love a bounceback season. Front office might need some dubs to keep their jobs.
Morning Itch! Is Tyler Gentry ready and will he break camp with the big team?
Thank you!
Howdy, junior56!
I think he’s ready. Highly doubt he opens w the big club bc KC has a pile of guys to sort through. He’s the most likely of all their OF to really hit imo.
The Itch!!!!
Awesome!!!
a. Fab read considering I signed up Tiedemann, thanks to you in 2022.
b. Horwitz=Jon Olerud! and he’d be a fan favorite among the Jewish community in TO!
c. Happy new year, like Miley said smoke ’em if you got ’em.
d. George Carlin quote of the day for December 28, 2022
‘Tell you another reason hockey is not a sport it’s not played with a ball. Anything that isn’t played with a ball can’t be a sport. These are my rules I make them up. Hockey is played with a puck. What is a puck? I never even heard of a puck outside of hockey. Have you ever heard of a puck? The only other place you find a puck is in the urinal to control the smell in the bathroom all right? And as far as I’m concerned any game where the main object is something that came out of a urinal is definitely not a sport.’
PLAYING WITH YOUR HEAD (1986)
Cheers,
Ante