I don’t have some big introductory explanation here. I trust you grasp the premise and intend to skip this paragraph, but if I still have your eyes for the moment, I’ll say I imagine a start-up build for a 15-team, 2-catcher dynasty league when parsing through the lists and try to explain when a player’s value varies based on settings. If you’re in a contention window, your rankings should look a bit different than they’d look on the front end of a rebuild. I’ll flag some players along the way for whom the disparity in value can get especially large from build to build.

In case you missed it, here’s a link to the Top 10 Prospects for 2021 Fantasy Baseball.

And here’s one for the Top 25 Prospects for 2021 Fantasy Baseball.

 

26. SS Noelvi Marte | Seattle Mariners | 19 | R | 2023

Prospect lists this season are somewhat reflective of each organization’s ability to publicize its own talent. Seattle has a knack for this, even turning some of that responsibility (and a YouTube show) over to Julio Rodriguez. That said, Marte’s ascent is mostly a result of his own extreme physical gifts as a plus athlete across the board who showed he could hang with near-majors pitching at the training site after some early scuffles. This winter might be the last chance to acquire him at anything less than top-20-prospect pricing.

 

27. SS Oneil Cruz | Pittsburgh Pirates | 22 | AA | Late 2021

What to do with Oneil Cruz

We don’t have all the details from a car accident this off-season that ended the lives of three humans. Seems like he’s clear according to the Pirates and the law, but even in a pure baseball sense, he presents a unique puzzle. He’s a little taller than 6’6” yet dynamic enough athletically to play shortstop and go to the opposite field with a natural-looking flick of the wrists that makes him much harder to strike out than someone so big can be. His regular swings are often beautiful and tremendous in the potential for destroying baseballs. He’s reportedly coming to spring camp but could still be facing some kind of suspension from Major League Baseball, and he’s so incredibly talented he has to remain high on the list. I don’t want to soapbox or presume anything, but Cruz has a lot of work to do as a baseball player, and I hope he can find a healthy balance moving forward. 

 

28. OF Brennen Davis | Chicago Cubs | 21 | A | 2022

Drafted in the second round of 2018, Davis bulked up a bit during his first off-season as a professional but maintained his plus-plus athleticism and found himself blasting opposite-field home runs and slashing .305/.381/.525 in the Midwest League, where he was 2.2 years younger than the average player. I think he’ll keep most of his speed as he grows into his man strength, and he’s already demonstrated an adeptness for minor adjustments to help get the barrel through the zone. I’m bullish on his future. 

 

29. 3B Austin Martin | Toronto Blue Jays | 22 | NCAA | 2022

Toronto picked up some windfall profit when Baltimore reached down the board to save money on their second overall pick, pushing some evaluators’ top overall player, Austin Martin, down to fifth after Miami and Kansas City preferred pitchers Max Meyer and Asa Lacy. I’m not quite that high on Toronto’s top pick but do think he was a nice value for them at the five spot. His draft stock was volatile mostly because his defensive home is unsettled. He’s a good enough athlete to play up the middle, but his struggles with accuracy as a thrower have bounced him around the field a bit. I think this issue is among baseball’s toughest to fix. Toronto might try him at shortstop because he’s got good hands, but he might follow his college path to third and then centerfield if he can’t find something that works. An underrated aspect of baseball is just how accurate infielders have to be on throws, and if Martin has just area code accuracy, he won’t play on the dirt. Doesn’t much matter for our purposes, where we care much more about his elite plate skills, plus-plus hit, plus run and average power. 

 

30. SS Tyler Freeman | Cleveland | 21 | A+ | 2021

Few prospects improved their stock during the pandemic. I was going to finish that sentence with “more than Tyler Freeman” but realized mid-flow that it was truer without the tag. Cleveland has better publicly available prospect coverage than just about anyone, and nobody benefited more from our behind-the-curtain access than Freeman because we saw him working extremely hard in several videos throughout the season and then saw him putting that added strength into practice on the field. Simply put, this guy is trying to hit homeruns. All day every day from the looks of it. His stat page is that of a contact-oriented base-stealer, but he’s on track to be something different, and I’m here for it. I’ve been kind of low on Freeman, I think, comparatively, but I really want to see what he looks like in 2021 and will seek to pick up a share or two in anticipation of a little value bump when we see the more muscular version in games.

 

31. SS Royce Lewis | Minnesota Twins | 21 | AA | 2022

The #1 overall selection in the 2017 draft, Royce Lewis has been a dynasty Sell for me since he entered the professional ranks. At first this occurred because of the incredible returns I saw him bring despite being several years from helping anyone win. A couple years into his career, he remains a sell for me because he hasn’t figured out how to hit, and I’m afraid it could get brutal when he makes the majors and has to face pitchers who can exploit his myriad weaknesses. I don’t know why he started kicking his leg up like a Rockette before every pitch, but I suspect that’s not helping. He won MVP of the 2019 Fall League as evidence that he can make it work in bursts and might be able to streak his way to decent season stat lines, but the ride will be turbulent. 

 

32. OF Trevor Larnach | Minnesota Twins | 24 | AA | 2021

Maybe I’ve got the pulse of this wrong, but the current price to acquire the Larnach Monster seems right according to my totally unscientific peak into the echo chamber. He’s like a lot of prospects in that he’s resigned to a corner spot, where his plus hit, plus power, plus patience profile is common, which gets punished on most public-facing prospect lists. We’re just doing fantasy here, and while it’s sometimes difficult to sift through the sound and fury, Larnach is an essential and fairly simple case study. His only red flag so far is 27.6 K rate in 43 games at AA. He produced a 148 wRC+ with a .295/.387/.455 triple slash despite the strikeout issue, which brought along a 12.2 percent walk rate. 

Some hitters get worse as the game wears them down. Pitchers discover and exploit tendencies. It’s a lot of people’s career to stop you from doing yours. I think Larnach will thrive in this high-intensity setting. Kind of a gut feel thing, but his plate skills, swing mechanics and barrel control give me confidence. 

 

33. LHP Tarik Skubal | Detroit Tigers | 24 | MLB | 2020

An under-reported side effect of Covid is how many times I’ve wound up writing about the same prospects. Feel like I’ve been talking about Skooby since the mystery machine first gassed up. He’s still a smooth, long-striding lefty with a true-spin four-seamer that plays well atop the zone, a change up he can bury for whiffs, and a curveball he can drop in for strikes, and a slider he can back foot to righties and erase lefties. He’s a buy for me if his team is dissuaded by his fairly bland stats across 32 innings. 

 

34. RHP Nate Pearson | Toronto Blue Jays | 24 | MLB | 2020

The season did not play out as planned for Nate Pearson, but we could say that about everyone, so I think his injury riddled campaign sort of flew under the radar. High velocity pitchers get hurt, so Pearson’s continued inability to stay on the mound would be a huge red flag in a normal off-season. In a Pandemic, it just blends in with all the other despair. I was high on life and Pearson last off-season, but now I wonder how much impact a guy can make coming off an 18-inning season. I mean I still want a guy who can throw 102 miles per hour for an inning. I just don’t want it to cost me a guy who can throw 102+ innings. 

 

35. OF Zac Veen | Colorado Rockies | 19 | HS | 2024

Veen is the rare plus-everything type. An uppercut lefty with tremendous explosion, his max-barrel speed of 78.107 mph landed him in the 96th percentile, according to perfectgame.org.

He’s an easy top five pick in first-year-player drafts this winter if you believe he’s good enough to overcome his circumstances, and he is perhaps the highest-upside piece in this year’s amateur draft. On a related note, I think the Rockies need to go the other way with their minor league affiliates, if possible. Most exist in wild offensive environments, except for AA Hartford which skews heavily toward pitching, so they don’t have any neutral home fields on the way up and then they get dropped into Coors. Well, they don’t get dropped in because this front office has little confidence in their own. No offense to Matt Kemp, but it’s a little much to be giving him at bats in a lost season while your young players ride the pine. I only travel this tangent to worry over the main reason to pass on Veen this draft season. I’d still like to have him on all my teams, but it’s weird to be rooting for a front office to get its walking papers. 

 

36. RHP Casey Mize | Detroit Tigers | 24 | MLB | 2020

A 6.99 ERA does not look nice on a baseball card. I was a little worried about Mize’s base level athleticism last year as well as his straightforward delivery. In other words, he’s not an exceptional athlete among big league peers, and his delivery is easy to time and track from the batter’s box. His stuff was so sharp during college that hitters still didn’t stand a chance, and the low minor league bats reacted the same way. We’ll soon see if he can execute consistently against the best in the world, and I’d be happy to have a discounted share or two, but I’m more skeptical than psyched. 

 

37. OF Riley Greene | Detroit Tigers | 20 | A | 2023

Drafted 5th overall out of high school in 2019, Greene is a 6’3” 200 lb lefty who the Tigers jumped straight to the Gulf Coast League, where he dominated for nine games and got promoted again. He held his own for 24 games in the New York Penn League .295/.380/.386 and got promoted to a third level in his draft season—an uncommon path to say the least. Water met its level for Greene in his 24 Midwest League games (.219/.278/.344), but he spent all of 2020 at the training site and remains an incredibly promising, plus hit plus power bat with a chance to stay in centerfield. He’s become increasingly rare for his age-to-level head start given the lost year around the minors. 

 

38. LHP Brailyn Marquez | Chicago Cubs | 21 | MLB | 2020

Marquez has risen in most rankings thanks to his 102 mile per hour fastball from a three-quarters arm slot, but it will be his off-speed that ultimately determines whether his fate is front-end starter or back-end reliever. He’s currently featuring a changeup and hard slider, both of which pair well with his fastball. If he can locate them down and out of the zone, he’ll be a nightmare. I’d like to see him add a cutter and better repeat his delivery from a more stable base, but it feels like nit-picking to worry over these aspects of a young lefty with his arm talent. 

 

39. 1B Ryan Mountcastle | Baltimore Orioles | 24 | MLB | 2020

Checking in at 126 at bats in 2020, Mountcastle barely qualifies for the list by that metric and just slips under the wonk-tastic guidelines MLB has set for 2021 rookie eligibility, having been promoted one week after the August 14 cut-off date. In a world of Wanders and Kelenics and J-Rods, the Count of Mountcastle makes a smart bet for the next AL Rookie of the Year award. I ranked him third on this list last year but was skeptical of his ability to succeed against top-end spin given his propensity to swing at everything. That tendency changed this year, and Mountcastle started hunting pitches he could damage and laying off those he couldn’t. It’s a small sample size, but it’s the only one we’ve got, and his final line of .333/.386/.492 with a 139 wRC+ was much better than anyone would’ve projected. This Baltimore front office has good coaches and strategies in place, and going forward, I think we’re more likely to see a player closer to the 2020 version with a 7.9 percent walk rate than the 4.3 percent we saw in 2019.

 

40. C Francisco Alvarez | New York Mets | 19 | R | 2024

Francisco Alvarez is fun. He’s a fleet-footed catcher with an outstanding swing. Loft and bat speed are not issues. Whatever issues Alvarez might need to solve to make his way up the chain remain a mystery. He’s plus or better at everything baseball, and he’s climbing prospect lists faster than you can say Bobby Bonilla.

 

41. OF Cristian Pache | Atlanta Braves | 22 | MLB | 2020

A plus-plus defender in centerfield, Cristian Pache will have a long time to learn how to hit big league pitching. Even if he struggles his first few years, his defense should keep him in the lineup. That’s the party line anyway–a story that’s floated Pache’s dynasty value since he stole 32 bases in 2017 against single-A batteries. He’s always been young for his level, so the believers see a lot of topside behind his solid .278/.340/.474 slashline as a 20-year-old in AA. That’s fair. He could certainly be much better than I think he’ll be, which is basically average from a fantasy perspective, about .270 with about 20 homers and ten steals. That player has value in our game, no doubt, but you’ve been able to trade him for big leaguers with better numbers than that the past two years, and you probably wouldn’t have regretted it.

 

42. OF Erick Peña | Kansas City Royals | 18 | NA | 2025

A 6’3” 180 lb wide receiver type athlete who seems likely to remain in centerfield, Peña will bring elite bat speed and athleticism to his first pro opportunity to generate a stat line in 2021. He’s near the top of a group of buy-now dynasty talents who haven’t hit the stateside circuit. Perhaps you could acquire Jasson Dominguez or Robert Puason in a trade today, but I think you’re better off checking in on the Erick Peña shareholder in your league because the price could be very reasonable for a 2019 FYPD first-rounder. The Cubs are seeking to exploit precisely this pandemic loophole by trading Yu Darvish for three players who’ve yet to debut, and Peña presents you the opportunity to buy a ticket to that party without selling a top-five pitcher. 

 

43. SS Orelvis Martinez | Toronto Blue Jays | 19 | R | 2023

At 3.5 million, Martinez netted the second highest bonus of his international class, behind only Victor Victor Mesa, who often brings to my mind that theme song from “Sister Sister.” Toronto sent Martinez straight to the Gulf Coast League in 2019, slipping the international circuit altogether to challenge O-Mart in a league where he was 2.5 years younger than the average player. The gamble paid off, as Martinez posted a 150 wRC+ and invited the club to push him again in 2021, where I suspect he’ll open in whatever looks like low A these days. 

 

44. OF Gilberto Jimenez | Boston Red Sox | 20 | A- | 2023

He’s fast. Maybe an 80, depending how his 5’11” 160 lb frame fills out. He’s also kind of a slap hitter. That’s fine for now, as he still turns on the occasional pitch and will likely trade some contact for power as he ages. With a slash line of .359/.393/.470 (wRC+ 158) as an 18-year-old in Low A, he’s got a little contact to give. Then again, he’s a switch hitter, which tends to take a little longer. By which I mean as one learns the perfect moments to fire and finds the feel for his max-out swing and when to employ that slightly different but considerably more violent and fearless stroke, he gains a level. A switch hitter is very unlikely to find this level from each side at the same time. 

 

45. SS Wilman Diaz | Los Angeles Dodgers | 17 | NA | 2025

For whatever reason (Yankees?), Jasson Dominguez was the first amateur international teenager to garner top-pick type publicity. No offense to his considerable gifts, but that shine was built largely by previous seasons making clear just how valuable these prospects have become. While that rising tide lifted all boats last off-season, this year’s international crop has taken a backseat to draftees. Makes no sense to me. Sure, we have less info about these youngsters, but it’s not like we have a whole lot to go on for all the draft picks, either.

I think Wilman Diaz winds up the best hitter in his international class thanks to elite hands. Preternaturally adjusts bat path to barrel pitches all over the hitting zone. Looks like he’ll navigate top-end velocity as well as any international signing in years. Headed to a top-level development team poised to maximize his talent. 

 

46. RHP Max Meyer | Miami Marlins | 22 | NA | Mid 2021 

I’m tempted to quote Hobbs again here because I know he’s a big believer in Meyer, a former shortstop with perhaps the best stuff in the 2020 pitcher class. MLB pipeline’s Jim Callis called Meyer the best athlete in the whole draft, and many thought his elite fastball/slider combination would lead Miami to bring him straight to the show. It seems clearer now that they’ll be careful about developing him as a starter, which sounds good to me, given the successes we’ve seen from Gary Denbo and his crew in South Beach. 

 

47. RHP George Kirby | Seattle Mariners | 23 | A- | 2021

Kirby moonlights as part of a cartoon fight club death cult but aside from that seems about as safe as young pitchers come. Double-plus command is the carrying tool, activating Kirby’s attacks in all parts of the strike zone and even extending the plate like an aged Atlanta arm from the 1990s as he gains the benefit of the doubt never waking anyone. Can he maintain his training site heat deep into games? Time will tell, but if we see Kirby shoving high nineties in the middle innings early this year, he’ll jump up prospect lists and float his way to Seattle by midsummer.

 

48. RHP Michael Kopech | Chicago White Sox | 25 | MLB | 2018

Boston selected Kopech 33rd overall in 2014 and developed him through 2016, a season he finished by striking out 82 High A hitters in 52 innings (40 percent of batters faced). The Sox were able to flip the 20-year-old Kopech along with Yoan Moncada for Chris Sale, without whom Boston probably doesn’t win the 2018 World Series. From a fantasy standpoint, that didn’t help us at all, of course, but it was ideal outcome for Boston. (I prefer to avoid thoughts of Jose Fernandez due to the sadness, but he’s the real ideal outcome, sadness notwithstanding).

Anyway, we’ve been hype and ready to see Kopech for quite some time, but I think he was wise to sit out 2020. A Tommy John returnee on that wild COVID ride seems like a recipe for trouble. Trouble everywhere anyway I suppose, but I think it enhances his appeal headed into 2021, even if we’d feel a little more confident investing if we’d seen him hit 100 just once. He seemed to find some command just before the elbow popped, and it really all comes down to whether or not he can find it again. Pitching is a mental marathon. Kopech is a uniquely risky play in many ways (he got married and divorced in 2020) but well worth a flier in just about every redraft and dynasty league. 

 

49. 3B Triston Casas | Boston Red Sox | 21 | A+ | 2022

I could say this in every profile: 2020 was bad for everybody. Casas needs at bats as a high school draftee (first round, 26th overall in 2018) with fewer than 500 plate appearances as he enters 2021 at age 21. He’s 6’4” 238 lbs, stands tall in the box and manages the strike zone well. His 23.5 percent K rate as a tall 19-year-old in A ball is impressive when paired with his 11.8 percent walk rate in that first full pro season. The dream outcome here manifests in a plus hit corner infielder with plus-plus power. 

 

50. LHP Daniel Lynch | Kansas City Royals | 24 | A+ | Early 2021

Listed at 6’6” 190 lbs, Lynch evokes memories of other string bean lefties and backs up the aesthetics with a dynamic arsenal in support of a high-90’s fastball. What his pitch mix looks like in 2021 might be something of a mystery as Lynch spent 2020 focused on developing a reportedly double-plus change-up. He probably only needs fastball, slider change but still has a cutter and curve in his repertoire. I’m eager to see which will work best against MLB bats and which offering he’ll lean into when the going gets tough. Lynch was likely ready for the big league jump this year and should have a chance to graduate (50+ MLB innings) in 2021.

 

Thanks for reading!

I’m @theprospectitch on Twitter.

 

 

 
  1. toolshed says:
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    I am glad to see kirby in your top 50. I feel like he is underrated. The control has been his calling card, but the extra velocity he showed last year has me pumped. I really want to see if he can sustain it and also keep the control. Do you think there is more strikeout upside with him than most are baking into his rankings? Many have Gilbert listed higher than kirby. Thanks

    • The Itch

      The Itch says:
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      It’ll all come down to off-speed command, in my opinion. I do think he’s got elite strikeout topside in part because I’m betting he can harness the new velocity and apply it to the off-speed. Might take time, but it’s easy to love the base skill set.

  2. Garrett says:
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    Fantastic write up!! Love these and keep up the awesome work itch.

    For keeper redraft purposes I was looking at a stash of Jeter downs , josh jung or lynch. Was targeting each of them for $1 or 2$ What eta do you think each of these have and which one has the most 2021 contribution do you think? I like them all long term but different ceilings for sure on all of them

    • The Itch

      The Itch says:
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      Thanks, Garrett!

      Good targets all three.

      Downs best ceiling long term.

      Jung best chance to produce real value in 2021.

      • Garrett says:
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        Thanks so much for this! I love your blurb on Scrubal! Been reading all offseason about some of the spin rates and improvements he’s been making at driveline.

        Do you think he can have a similar ceiling to Manning and Mize?

      • ryan says:
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        What kind of upside do you see Downs having?

  3. Tweak says:
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    I really like Mountcastle going into this year’s RCL as a later round pickup. The Orioles’ offense is totally underrated. E Pena is my pick to really jump up lists this year, top-10 next year? I’d also really like to target Larnach wherever available this year, I think the he and Kirilloff are looking ready to crush the AL Central for a long time to come.

    Also, KC seems like they have a lot of decent arms developing, including Lynch and Lacy. I’m not convinced any of them make the jump to more than #2s, but a 5-man rotation of #2s can win you a WS. Maybe Lacy gets there – I’ve seen some hyping him up hard.

    Separately, had our dynasty FYPD yesterday and curious on your take on my end (if you wouldn’t mind terribly). 16-team, 41 player rosters, unlimited MiLB (i.e., if you want to tank, you can tank).

    I had picks Rd 1, #6 and Rd 2, #13. Guys like Torkelson, N Gonzales, K Rocker were all gone in last year’s draft (you can speculatively pick up anyone in the Fantrax universe).

    I took Wilman Diaz at 1-6 and Carlos Colemanarez at 2-13, as I am reasonably competitive (~top third of teams) and relatively young (Darvish is my oldest SP, everyone else is ~26 – Arenado is my oldest hitter). Picks before and after were:

    Before – Veen, Kjerstad, J Fabian, A Lacy, A Wells
    After – M Meyer, J Leiter, M McLain, Ha-seong Kim, Robert Hassell III

    I don’t usually pick teenagers, but am pretty high on both. Maybe I whiffed by not grabbing Kim, but I’m not convinced that he’s going to get a lot more than 400 ABs and maybe produce at .275/10 HR/10SB (which is no slouch).

    Feature bats are Acuna, Arenado, J Baez, Hiura, E Jimenez
    Feature arms are Darvish, Nola, Plesac, Urias, Glasnow
    Current prospects are Heriberto Hernandez, Kody Hoese, Joey Cantillo, Mackenzie Gore, Kyle Leahy (and now Diaz and Colemanarez).

    • Slappy Jack says:
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      “you can speculatively pick up anyone in the Fantrax univers”
      – I find that rule to be very peculiar

    • The Itch

      The Itch says:
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      Sounds like a strong build to me! I really like getting Wilman there.

      Totally agree on KC. Throw in a couple pop up arms and Staumont development, that could be a great staff. Plus the new owner has money.

  4. dude says:
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    In top 25 thread you suggested I think about not keeping Olson or Moncada based on price. And looking at my team and window that makes sense, so looking at options.

    12 team 5×5 roto keeper league. $5 raises each year. $320 cap, so I’m way under as is and could keep all 15 again next year without issue if I wanted. Current 15
    1B – Olson $25
    2B – Albies $17, Lux $5
    3B – Moncada $30, Bohm $15, Tork $5
    OF – Arozarena $10, Carlson $10
    SP – Fried $15, Gore $13, Musgrove $10, Valdez $10, Pearson $6
    RP – Karinchak $8

    Couple Questions

    Should I offer up $30 Moncada for $6 Kelenic?

    Would you offer up $25 Olson/$5 Lux for $15 Alonso?

    Was offered Patino $6 for $10 Musgrove, take that?

    • Ray says:
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      My two cents: trade Moncada for Kelenic, keep Olson and Lux and keep Musgrove.
      We know what Musgrove is and he couldn’t have landed in a better spot than SD. He made some tweaks to his pitch mix last year and I think that carries over into 2021.
      I think Olson and Alonso are very similar bats and $10 diff in salary isn’t worth giving up a cheap Lux.

    • The Itch

      The Itch says:
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      I’d prefer Kelenic to Moncada yeah.

      Would Probably hold Lux as Ray suggests. Maybe he bounces this year.

      That last one is tough. I think I hold Musgrove to see how SD goes for him. New skills there.

  5. Josh Burroughs says:
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    Dynasty Lg trade offer…. I send B Dalbec and get back N Gorman.

    Like or no deal?

    • Cheese Eating Surrender Monkey says:
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      that seems easy gorman if no prices are involved.

      • Cheese Eating Surrender Monkey says:
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        but for long term roster managing gorman probably ain’t gonna be playing 3B anymore (unless torenado risks removing himself after this year or next year to not get around 30 mil per average for the remaining years). LF/2B is what i’m likely hearing to be true. and then NL DH’ing is likely too.

        • Josh Burroughs says:
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          Yea… that was my only concern with him!

      • Josh Burroughs says:
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        That’s what I thought…. just wanted to run it past some others.

        No prices… he would be in one of my minor slots. He is 5 years younger than Dalbec.

        The other manager also offered a pick upgrade in the draft.

    • The Itch

      The Itch says:
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      Yeah I’d take it then put Gorman on the block.

      • Josh Burroughs says:
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        Dalbec expected to be Boston’s 1st base…. could be a productive spot in their offense.

        You do you guys lean toward Norman?

        • Cheese Eating Surrender Monkey says:
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          both me and itch do, he says afterward try to trade gorman.

          • Josh Burroughs says:
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            You don’t think Dalbec could be a sleeper in that offense?

            • Cheese Eating Surrender Monkey says:
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              i didn’t say that, i said i’d rather have gorman, as did itch. itch added about trying to trade gorman right off after getting him as well. if you’d rather current production, certainly dalbec.

              • The Itch

                The Itch says:
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                Yeah I agree on all counts w Cheese Eating Surrender Monkey.

                Hold Dalbec if you’re fearful about filling that corner spot in a contention window.

                Otherwise I think Gorman has more value to more people and would try to flip him.

                • Josh Burroughs says:
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                  Ok… thanks!

                  What’s your thoughts on trading Ozuna for Bregman?

  6. Ian says:
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    I’m in a keeper league, keep 12, 6×6 with TB and OBP instead of BA, and QS on the pitching side. I was enthusiastic on Gore a year ago but can’t help but be a little concerned now. Here’s my top options
    C – Perez
    1B – open
    2B – Hiura
    3B – Rendon
    SS – open
    IF – Bregman
    OF – Trout
    OF – Springer
    OF – Arozarena
    OF – open
    Util- open
    P – Cole
    P – Bieber
    P – Bauer
    P – Sixto
    P – Gore
    Other keeper candidates: Rizzo, Meadows, Kyle Lewis, Patrick Corbin

    Thoughts on keeping Sal Perez vs these others?
    Thoughts on Gore? Was thinking a trade of Gore for Tim Anderson might work. The Anderson owner also has Tatis and Trea so he’s good as SS otherwise my best hope at SS is Dansby Swanson is available to draft.

    • Jr says:
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      Just my two cents, but I would consider replacing Perez with Lewis. Sal takes a big bit in OBP leagues. I own him in an OBP dynasty too, and think you would have an easier time getting him back or replacing him with better talent than the others. Lewis walks a lot so he gets a bump up in OBP formats.

    • The Itch

      The Itch says:
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      I like the idea of going after Anderson.

      Also agree w Jr that I’d keep Lewis over Sal Perez.

  7. Jr says:
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    I play in a 10 team h2h dynasty league where we can keep up to 10 minor league players basically for free. Any of the FYPD guys get a bump up for the stats we use? HR, BB, TB, OBP, SLG, SB. No average, runs or rbi. Anyone you see who gains a lot of value from a setup like that?

    • The Itch

      The Itch says:
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      Sabato?

      Maybe Polkovich.

  8. Cheese Eating Surrender Monkey says:
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    my only shallow 12 h2h teamer with keepers (do money leagues shallower but those are redrafts). we have to keep 28 to active and 0-7 to NA list (prospects elig only, 130/50).
    scoring: 5×5 stuff and these added: slugging, OPS, BB’s, K’s (against for hitters), fielding % for hitters, for pitchers: 5×5 stuff with these added: losses, HR’s against, holds, OBP against.

    for sure kept:
    C: kraken
    1B: h.dozier (3B/RF)
    2B: muncy (1B/3B)
    SS: mondesi
    3B: urshela (3B has been my weakness here for years, but it’s shallow league, so guys get dropped, i had jd davis most of last year, along with dozier)
    LF: alvarez (whew, at least he didn’t lose LF, yet)
    CF: acuna (all OF)
    RF: 54 dollar steak (f.reyes)
    util (1):
    BN: brujan (if not up can go into one of the NA slots, but not yet)
    SP: darvish, ryu, hendricks, paddack, carrasco, kluber, c.javier, s.howard
    RP (max 5 unless somebody has SP too): hand, raise the church, duffey, t.rogers (MIN)
    prospects list: (only guys with NA right now can go on this): r.lewis, k.robinson, b.davis, groshans (so i’ll draft the earliest 3 rounds with this)

    so i need 7 more out of this group: hampson, d.castillo, ed cab (MIA), d.jeffreries, carmart, a.reyes, z.davies, yarbrough, r.osuna (5 DL’s), puig, cactus jesus, la STELLA, a-dick, antana (so 7 cuts from that list). obv being a 12 teamer (and obv in general) BN bats i don’t want many of.

    • Cheese Eating Surrender Monkey says:
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      this league doesn’t have a normal “draft” we keep 28 and do a prospect elig NA tagged only draft shortly though. max 7 kept, and 7 rounds. the waiver adds are fierce obviously right away.

      • Cheese Eating Surrender Monkey says:
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        just found out, i can keep r.osuna as one of the max 7 NA guys, so i’ll write up which prospects aren’t being kept to see if i’m better off drafting 3 of those or keeping osuna and drafting 2. but then if osuna plays somewhere and a.reyes doesn’t get SP elig i’ll have 6 RP for 5 spots.

        • The Itch

          The Itch says:
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          I’d throw Osuna back as of today.

          If he doesn’t sign soon, I think he’s blackballed.

          Reyes
          E Cab
          Dickerson
          La Stella
          Davies
          Yarbrough
          Then who is cactus jesus hahaha ?

          • Cheese Eating Surrender Monkey says:
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            jesus aguilar, he got that name before he was starting for MIL since for a few years he’d be awesome in spring training. i’m going to write up who’s available and who’s not for the NA draft (which could influence r.osuna as an NA keeper or not, as i’d be drafting 2-3 guys depending on him kept or not).

            – interesting, you believe what a-dick was doing last year compared to grey. and davies over carmart different from him. e-cab/reyes/yarbrough you both agreed on (and he left the last slot to osuna or la STELLA!, but i hadn’t mentioned to him i could keep osuna as NA guy as i didn’t know that at the time i typed this first). he left jefferies in there over the 2nd bat too. also he kept hampson (i suppose hampson was over a-dickerson).

            • Cheese Eating Surrender Monkey says:
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              currently, so some major names even if not owned can’t be drafted here): tork/kjerstad (gone in first 2 picks), nick gonz, a.martin (if not i know what to do),
              then these (your ranking listed, till 49th at casas, i’ll go off PL’s top 500 after that):
              16 matos CF
              17. the hed (we gotta work up some name like the old arcade game for him) LF
              30. t.freeman SS
              32. larnach RF, veen, pena, o-mart, g-jim, meyer, casas (this takes us to the end of your top 50, and likely can get 2 of these by the 20th pick), going down PL’s: lacy, hendrick, perdomo, g.mitchell, crow-arm, valera, hancock,bracho

              so it’s about whether owning one of that last group or r.osuna.

              • Cheese Eating Surrender Monkey says:
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                sorry, this didn’t start yet i’m mixing it up with another league where kjerstad went 1.2. but at 8th i gotta assume tork/n.gonz/martin are gone for sure.

                • Cheese Eating Surrender Monkey says:
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                  i forgot about osuna having a partially torn elbow tendon too, that seals it. it’s not just blackballing for stupid violent shit that numerous others have been caught doing and signed afterward for. LAA just knowingly signed a real creepo (not necessarily violent creepo) as their pitching coach pretty recently. the MLBPA protected the rights of the HOU guys to not get in trouble for cheating. osuna had signed with HOU fully well knowing he was involved in some other woman(women) abuses. these billionaire owners are completely fine with players doing whatever unless they think it might cost them real money (kaepernick stands out there for NFL) and all that dude did was try to point out that people with darker skin pigments getting killed with no ramifications and not armed probably isn’t good. the “defend a cops right to kill unarmed black people” is clearly a bigger sports lobby group than “we gotta get women abusers out of sports” as far as money anyway.

                  – if us in fantasy just stayed away from players who are human trash we’d have to throw out dozens of good players a year (and this isn’t different than decades ago, only difference is in age of social media and cameras everywhere it’s far more well known what these guys are about in their lives). but torn elbow tendons AND not being signed kinda big deal.

                  • The Itch

                    The Itch says:
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                    Good call the coaches and front office seem to have gotten a pass for a while on this front.

                    Yeah is really the not being signed and the elbow he chose not to get cut that makes him troublesome for fantasy.

            • The Itch

              The Itch says:
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              I can see edging out Dickerson for Hampson for sure.

  9. Useless Info says:
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    I saw you had a few Mariners but not my favorite, Logan Gilbert.
    Don’t sleep on this guy because he’s gonna be special.

    • The Itch

      The Itch says:
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      Yeah he’s in the very next group.

  10. IntendedSteb says:
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    Is it time to give up on Carter Kieboom? Kid had so much promise and I’m hesitant to move on from him. I need someone to confirm that it will get better.

    • Mike L says:
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      Always depends on who’s available and position need. I don’t think even the best experts know what to think about guys coming into this year but the least you can do is watch him in spring training.

    • The Itch

      The Itch says:
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      What’s it cost to lean in and hope he hits this year?

      I’m not out hunting for Kieboom shares but I’m not dismissing him either.

      I think it impacts my perspective that I never liked him compared to the echo chamber, so now it’s easier for me to be interested to find out what he really becomes. I have no scars here, or something.

  11. RICHARD says:
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    WOULD JORDAN LAWLAR BE RANKED ON THIS LIST OR LOWER?

    • Cheese Eating Surrender Monkey says:
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      here we go: I’M GOING TO GO OUT ON THIS EXTREMELY LARGE LIMB (only since the type size) AND SAY NO TO THAT

    • The Itch

      The Itch says:
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      He’d be close for sure.

      As of today, he wouldn’t make it in open universe rankings bc I’m not waiting still another year on a high school bat.

      But this summer after the draft when many of these guys have graduated, yes, definitely, he’s on track to open up as a top 50 guy when he enters pro ball.

  12. Josh Burroughs says:
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    What’s you opinion on Victor Robles?

    Dynasty lg…: keep him or trade?

    • The Itch

      The Itch says:
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      He’s a keep for me.

  13. Mordacious Levator says:
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    15 team roto auction dynasty (well not quite, we can only keep 18 predraft, but close) with these cats: 5×5 stuff with QS/OPS added and net saves + holds over saves. shallow starting rosters. players are on 3 year contract cycles (prospects clocks don’t start till the season they hit 130/50 and that year is their year 1), but no penalty for cutting contract, anybody kept or drafted keep their price and term, anybody obtained off FA that wasn’t kept/drafted cost 10 and when you obtain them is their year 1, unless pros elig. no in season budget, budget only applies to preseason like now. budget this year is 360 (goes up 5% a year), predraft max budget is 270 (and 18 players max). after the 3rd year of a contract cycle player can be bid on, owner has right to match or not (gets nothing if no match), if no bids owner can restart new 3 year deal at same price. max DL and NA slots.
    likely kept players for sure:
    C
    1B
    2B hiura 10 (3, will get 1B shortly too so could easily move to that, my weak hitting position, which is nice, i’ve been running c.cron types out there the last 2 years)
    SS j.baez 25 (year 3)
    3B bregman 30 (3)
    LF y.alvarez 10 (3)
    CF teoSCAR (all OF) 10 (2)
    RF judge 30 (2)
    util (2): mcneil (2B/3B/LF/RF) 4 (3), lux 10 (2)

    prospects: abrams 4 (0), brujan 10 (0), n.marte 10 (0)
    SP: gausman 10 (2), luzardo 10 (2), pab lop 10 (2), ryu 10 (biddable by others to a max of 30 in his price range), maeda 9 (3),
    RP: (room for 5): hand 11 (2), pressly 10 (2)

    that’s 18 and 243 (assuming ryu gets bid up to 30 and i match) easily within the max of 270, so i’d have 7 spots left to draft and 117 for a 16.71 average per drafted player.

    other options:
    DTD arnaud 10 (2)
    santander 10 (2)
    l.matos 10 (0)
    laureano 10 CF/RF (can be bid up to max 30, which i doubt happens)
    duvall 10 (2)
    aguilar 10 (2)
    lastella 10 (2)
    mancini 25 (2)
    plesac 10 (2)
    t.rainey 10 (2)
    b.davis (CUBS, 10 (0)
    patino 10 (0)

    i left out the other obv cuts….

    • The Itch

      The Itch says:
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      Hypothetically, you throw back Judge, Bregman and Baez.

      What do they go for, you think?

      And who’s in the pool could be bought.

      I’d probably hold Judge. But I’m curious.

    • The Itch

      The Itch says:
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      small chance I throw Lux back as well

      I’d like to fit Santander and Plesac, for starters,

      then consider d’Arnaud, Luareano, Aguilar, and La Stella.

      Probably the bar is a little high for Laureano to be an impact piece, but $10 is nice in this.

      Aguilar could actually be an impact bat in any format, I think, when he’s rolling. Same for La Stella, although the ball change worries me there.

      • Mordacious Levator says:
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        there are some very good players that can be bid on, but they’ll be matched, soto/acuna/hader, all of which can only be bid up to 30 max (bids are in groups determined by previous contract price, the 1-19 group all are max 30 now, soto/acuna were originally obtained for 10 or less and just now ended their 3 year cycles at crazy cheap prices). judge/bregman/baez would very likely all cost right around what i’m paying if let go. judge for sure (might even be more than 30 in auction), maybe j.baez gets cheaper, but the thing is guys like him are likely all owned so that’s a huge gamble. last year i couldn’t afford stanton at around 35 and he went for 36 in draft.

        – some others that can be bid on:
        suarez (max 30)
        cole (he’s already expensive so max 62)
        price (max 36)
        all 30 max group others that are great: flaherty, gleyber, muncy, buehler, t.anderson, mondesi, meadows.

        we get 10 bids max and i’ll bid on the best of these, assume in most cases they’ll all be matched (maybe muncy sneaks under, but i’d have to drop somebody to pay him so maybe not). this roster needs steals (laureano i probably need to keep over lux, or santander over lux, or cut a prospect). grey talked me into plesac over gausman, from age. hiura moves to 1B right away and will have 1B in 5 games, can move mcneil to 2B at that time (1B had been my weakest position, had relied on cron’s/cactus jesus from this for last 2ish years). cactus jesus will likely cost close to what i’d have to pay to keep anyway (since he was obtained off FA midseason). santander might only cost similar for same reasons.
        there will be some other decent players not kept since their contracts are overpriced (altuve, if he counts), buxton (28, maybe), morton (25, maybe), olson (30, 2 months of bad AVG might affect that), scherzer (56, but i ain’t bidding what he costs, my SP are already deep and his name worth more than he is)

  14. ES says:
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    Is this list going to expand to 100 at some point? Or stop at 50?

    • Mantis Tobaggan MD says:
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      he mentions “the next part” when asked about l.gilbert which i would assume is either 75 or 100. last year he pretty sure went even deeper than 100. if in need of something far deeper (or quicker), see PL’s top fantasy 500 (it’s specifically for fantasy, unlike some of their other content).
      https://www.prospectslive.com/lists/2020/10/15/top-500-prospects-for-dynasty-leagues

      and since PL is co-started and i believe co-owned by ralph (still doing podcasts here) it’s not like i’m sending razzballians away from our people. PL kicks ass too.

      • The Itch

        The Itch says:
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        Agreed on all counts.

    • The Itch

      The Itch says:
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      Yes, working toward Sunday for the next 25.

  15. jayj says:
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    was offered Taylor Trammel($0) for miguel andujar($6) 16 man dynasty. thoughts? thanks

    • The Itch

      The Itch says:
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      I’d take Trammel at this point. Hard to know when Andujar gets a chance, whereas Trammel sort of has to sooner or later.

  16. The Harrow says:
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    holy crap i just read that smash down (basically saying the truth on his obfuscations/cherry picking attempts that grey hasn’t done when attacked often) from the top 50 for 2021 prospects back in october for that “no need to insert nasty adjective here, just read what he types and have a memory” guy. agrees to a bet and it’s conditions then a few posts later tries to call you “cheating/shady” from NOT READING that the entire point of your article was for 2021 REDRAFT leagues (and clearly didn’t read the bet parameters when offered), literally the point of it was that. he pulls that same stuff on grey for at least the last year constantly. when he thinks he was right (funny as he never really pins down what to be right would mean at least half the time, so he can wiggle out or wrongly claim right in numerous permutations of what happened) he shows up for months to wade in his pool, if he’s wrong crickets. constant obfuscating, glad to see it not be taken and laughed off and say what’s really going on.

    – guys, unless you want to actively be an ass or giant idiot, when terms of a bet are proposed, i don’t know READ them before agreeing; you don’t get to not read them (like you can’t read the entire point of a post at the top) then show up minutes later to accuse the guy proposing the idea to be “cheating”. if you did read what was proposed and didn’t understand what they meant for whatever reason either get what you don’t understand cleared up or don’t agree.

    • The Harrow says:
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      holy shit, then he’s so full of himself that he assumes you deleted his idiot comments without checking, then comes in and accuses you of deleting them. wow, just wow. not surprising it’s just after accepting a bet then immediately accusing the conditions he just agreed to to be “cheating/shady”. when solipsism/meglomania gets to really elite levels. this in the next post. would just lurve to be in the same room as this guy somewhere in public, i’m sure everybody wonders where in the hell their tazers are with each interaction and/or tranquilizers (for themselves).

      • The Itch

        The Itch says:
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        Truly appreciated this response, man. Thank you.

  17. Tyree says:
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    Working a deal … I already have Tatis, and Gleybar, looking to maybe now move Wander. Would you agree that keeping all three is overkill? If so, is Wander the guy to move at this point?

    I am getting offers for Adley + Bishop + Beledy for Wander…. Any thoughts on that deal?

    7×7 Roto League, SLG, OBP, HLD, K/9 – 15 teams

    • The Itch

      The Itch says:
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      Not overkill. I wouldn’t move him now, but if I did I’d want MLB pieces back.

      Or maybe CJ Abrams plus a useful MLB piece.

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