Top 100 Prospects for 2021 Fantasy Baseball Volume 2: La Vida Vidal

1. where do you rank Jo Adell?

   • Just after Jarren Duran, I think. 20 or so.

   • Would you deal Betts for:
     Vaughn, Carlson and Clase?
     Keep 20 10T h2h

     • I’d hold Betts

2. Thanks Itch, this is great.

   Tyler Freeman fell a decent amount. Have you changed your outlook on him? I assume it is lower b/c the power he reportedly showed at the alternate site has not shown up this year. Is he more like a 15 hr ceiling now or less?

   Second question is what do I do with senzel? I thought 2021 was going to be his year. Surprisingly he is only 1 year younger than dahl. I’ve said this to someone else that I feel like it is another david dahl saga. I held him way too long. Dahl at least showed some promise while on the field in big league games before he let you down because of the omnipresent injury. Thanks

   • Thanks, toolshed!

     Yeah Freeman isn’t looking loose enough to really hit for power against live pitching. BP blasts are one thing. In game hasn’t followed along.

     I’m just out on Senzel. Slap hitter from what we’ve seen so far and his base approach.

3. I think I must be misunderstanding something. The title indicates this list is for 2021 fantasy baseball, which I assumed meant for redraft leagues, and I did not see anything necessarily contrary to that in the text. So why would Corbin Carroll, who is out for the year with an injury, be ranked at all, nevertheless 6th? So if this not for 2021 redraft leagues, what is it for? Is this just an updated version of a dynasty league prospects list?

   • Prospect lists are generally dated with the years they are posted. It is not for redraft leagues. He’s probably just going for top value prospects right now for leagues that care about prospects.

     Just look at the ETAs, most of these will not come up this year.

   • Thanks for the list again. I’ve snagged quite a few people early thanks to your work.

     Looks like Kelenic has dropped a few spots for you. I’m guessing that is mostly about other people moving up and I haven’t heard anyone reading a lot into his early struggles, but is there anything you’re seeing so far that concerns you?

     I was also wondering what you think of Mckinstry for the rest of the season.

     • Thanks, AA!

       Some of it just early confirmation bias. I’ve never been as high on Kelenic as consensus, and I’m feeling kind of confident at the moment in general about my reads on the game. Still a great prospect, but not in that rare air that can carry a team to dynasty slash keeper slash redraft glory.

       • gotcha that makes sense

         thanks again

   • Yeah AA explained it well.

     Confuses me too tbh. I added the 2021 late bc I know that’s how I’ve been asked to title these in the past.

     The Stash List serves as my rolling redraft rankings.

4. Why is Francisco Alvarez ahead of Adley?

   • Lots of reasons, but the carrying tools are maybe the best way to say it quickly. Adley is an elite defender and leader in the clubhouse. Alvarez is an amazing hitter. He’s a good catcher too, but he could play 3B or OF and be great, bat wise. Adley’s a great hitter too, of course, but he wasn’t where Alvarez is as a 19-year-old and he doesn’t have the baseline twitch or hand speed Alvarez does.

5. Best in the biz, Itch. Thanks.

   I’ve got a partial-dynasty with the following names on the chopping block: Miguel Yajure, Elehuris Montero, Miguel Amaya, Brice Turang, Jackson Rutledge

   Who do you drop first?

   • Thanks, Brett!

     I’d drop Amaya.

6. I have to ask what is your best guess as to when Franco comes up? My hope is right after the Rays quit f’ing around with trying to guess when Super Two will be. Thanks

   • I’m thinking July. I’ll bet Brujan comes first.

7. Thanks for the updated list,Itch.
   Is the 2022 ETA on Matos an error or do you think he makes the leap that quickly?
   Also, ETA of 2021 on Thomas. He’s off to a great start. Do you think he gets the call in 2nd half?

   • Hmm that Matos ETA does look aggressive. I was thinking they’ll be contending and taking a look at him in August next year if he’s hot. He’d have to smash every checkpoint to hit that. Should likely spin it back to ‘23.

     Thomas seems more likely for ‘22 than ‘21 as well, but that’s more bc Arizona is meh than anything Thomas can control.

8. Thanks for the insight Itch!

   I’m itching to know your floor / ceiling for:
   Manoah
   Gilbert
   Davidson

   Thx!

   • Manoah’s ceiling is fantasy ace.

     Gilbert looks like a mid rotation type on the ceiling and a minor leaguer on the floor.

     Davidson has lost the big velo he found last year but might not need it. Has always been effective. I’d group him w Gilbert.

9. Is it time to move on kelenic in a redraft? Could pick up Pham or give him one more week. Thanks

   • I’d probably make that switch, assuming you can’t trade Kelenic for anything worth the hustle. Pham’s on fire.

10. Great stuff. Hopefully we see Franco, Brujan and J.Lowe soon.

    • Thanks!

      And same. Should be mid June for at least one of them.

11. ITCH!! I love it.. 8 of my 10 farm appear on this list .. the 2 that aren’t are Bleday & Valera.. not much of a trade market in my 12 teamer.. I’ve tried Bleday mostly … easy drop for Pratto? He’s highest available on your list .. Thank you as always

    • Thanks, Lower the Jolly Roger!!

      I’d make that swap easy yeah.

12. I always enjoy your posts!

    12 team points league. Was offered Aaron Nola + Luke Voit for my Wander Franco + Kyle Tucker.

    We can keep 10 forever, no penalty. Outside of Franco, I have 10 good keepers. My pitching is solid, but Nola could put me over the top.

    The biggest issue for me is trading Kyle Tucker who has as many points as Nola right now.

    What side do you like? Try Franco and a lesser player for Nola? I love Franco’s potential, but flags fly forever.

    • I think Franco for Nola is totally fair. If anyone should be kicking in, I think it’s the Nola side.

13. Thanks Itch! Love the work. Between my 3 dynasty teams I have 5 of the top 10. Feel good about that. Stay strong and have a great weekend!

    • Thanks, Powdered Toast Man!

      Hope you have a great weekend too!

14. Pretty aggressive w Noveli Marte and really surprised to see him ahead of Austin Martin. Why? Some places have Martin near top 10 already.

    • Yeah I’m just kind of out on Martin for fantasy.

      He’s not geared to hit for power. Will have to carry an elite batting average and steal a lot of bases to help us much, and he’s real fast, so the steals will have to be mostly savvy + opportunity.

      He’s a good baseball prospect because he’s a tough out. Fouls off a lot of tough pitches. Takes pitches close and in the shadow zone. But I think he could get bullied a bit in the zone by pitchers who just don’t fear his impact.

      • Oh and Marte is a monster. Loud contact. Loft. Physicality. Might retain impact speed into his late twenties.

15. Good Morning Itch,

    in a 16 team H2H redraft, pitching is pretty scarce. I’ve got some decent streamers on my bench, but really like Vladimir Gutierrez. I know he’s getting another start this week, but do you think he sticks in the rotation?

    • Good morning, Hamporter.

      I think so, or at least they’ll need him enough to use him in an up-and-down capacity. He’ll throw as many big league innings as he can handle.

      • Thanks,

        Follow up, can you rank ROS streamers: Skubal, Gutierrez, Irvin, Dunning?

16. 11 team AL-only keeper roto league. Which side do you prefer? I listed remaining contracts AFTER this year ($260 budget). Wondering if you have changed outlook on Vaughn at all after he’s had some time up?

    A: Andrew Vaughn (5/10/15), Eovaldi (10/15), Emerson Hancock (free reserve/10/15/20)

    B: Giolito (13/18/23), Dalbec (6/11/16)

    • Not really changed on Vaughn. Been a tough way to find his feet but he’s doing well enough, I think, especially of late. I’m a little concerned about his long-term place on the squad and LaRussa’s desire to bench him, but that’s probably just overthinking it.

      The AL-only piece seems key here. Vaughn having CI OF next year will be nice, and Eovaldi is okay. Dalbec feels to a bench piece on a good Sawx team, long term.

      Feels like a very even trade. I’ll take the Giolito side but keep going back and forth.

17. Great conversation starter / trade tool – will take a while to digest all this and look forward to the deeper analysis next week

    Surprised to still see Torkelson Top-10 but I’m not going to argue with you!

    Do you know that Heriberto Hernandez has yet to make it to the Yahoo! player pool, despite your 2022 ETA ?! I prefer their Fantasy site to the others, but they are slow to add players

    Strange fact – on the Team I drafted this year for Dynasty, using a lot of your advice, I have numbers 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12 and 14 from this list! Odd (or rather “Even”) !

    It’s a Bank Holiday in the UK and it’s sunny, which is about as rare as the Rockies making a good personnel decision

    Enjoy your weekend!
    John

    • Thanks, Baggie John!

      Wild stuff on Heriberto. Though not surprising like you say, typically slow, tho you’d think being in that Nate Lowe trade might make it happen.

      Numbers man. Only the even prospects! Couldn’t do that if we tried, eh?

      Hope you had a wonderful bank holiday in the sun!

18. Hey The Itch,

    Just wanted to say that you are top-notch and these lists are priceless!

    Is Andy Pages (LAD) worth watching? I don’t know much about him.

    Thanks man, enjoy the weekend

    • I’m just a fan, not an expert:

      I only saw a couple of clips of him hitting and he kind of had Ohtani’s swing from the other side of the plate. He swings up and for power. He definitely looks strong. I am not so sure about his strikeout numbers. My guess: .250 hitter with +power…

    • Thanks, Worm Burner!

      I think so. Joe Shmoe nailed it, I think.

      And thanks hope you have a great weekend too!

19. Wondering what you see on MacKenzie Gore?

    Would you trade him for Torkelson?

    Have a keeper league where I’ve locked up Gore as a last round pick (26th). Torkelson’s a 15th.

    • Yeah I’d swap him for Tork for sure if all things are equal.

      Even at that price gap, depending on the league settings.

      Only if it’s heavily tilted toward pitching do I keep Gore at the discount v Tork at what could be a forever price unless the inflation in that league is very aggressive.

      • Thanks! Very much appreciated….

20. Outstanding work, Itch. Thank you.

    A few names stand out as significantly higher than your fantasy prospector colleagues:

    Heriberto
    Peguero
    Detmers
    Paris
    Howell

    Care to elaborate on any of these?

    Seems to me like this may be a case of you skating to where the puck will be, not where it’s been.

    • I saw Peguero play in Spring Training. The guy was fast! Seems like he had “the fire” and could get on base and steal. He stood out compared to the other prospects on the diamond that day. He also continues to hit after he injured his knee and was out for a week or so.

      I hear that Paris can hit, but can’t field. Maybe they have to put him in the outfield even though he is listed at SS. If he can figure out his defense, I think his stock would be higher.

      This is mostly accumulated research and not much of the eye test. I would love to be able catch minor league baseball on tv. Is there such a thing?

      • Pretty good summation, Joe Shmoe.

        MiLB.tv has made huge leaps these past few years. Can see just about anyone these days. Well worth the $50 if that’s your jam. I like watching mostly on replay where I can skip around.

    • Thanks, ceasar!

      I like to think that’s exactly what I’m doing RE skating in anticipation of the puck. Love that way to think of this particular aspect of the game. Well put.

      I’ll circle back and build an article around this. Great question!

      In short, they look how the good ones look in the critical ways that manifest most on the field: twitch and hand-eye for the bats and command, velo and poise on the mound.

      If anyone thought, on draft night, that Reid Detmers would be brushing up into the high nineties by May ‘21, he might’ve gone right after Tork.

21. Great list Itch ! I have #1,2,&3 in my minors.
    It is kind of mysterious with the Padres being so quiet about McKenzie Gore and his struggles. Is it true he has the yips too?

    • Thanks and well done, Junior56!

      I think it’s mostly that his mechanics were always ludicrous, but the huge leg kick looks cool and worked fine when he was super young and lithe, but now he’s likely a little less bendable in the tendables, as age makes crones of us all.

      It’s more than just the leg, of course, but he’s been throwing that one way for a decade, and it’s going to be hard to alter that, especially bc he likely won’t have buy-in enough to really try it anytime soon. And he’s got a good case to stay the same. It’s always worked. But you may have noticed the Rays immediately worked on Patiño this way, they didn’t remove the exaggerated kick from the repertoire, but they helped him add variations. Which really function as extra ways to find it (release point) when you’re a bit lost in your own body.

22. Great list as always. What MLB player would you compare Vidal to?

    • Mookie is the best match imo

      • Really?!?! Ok well I dropped Luciano for him. Hated to drop Luciano, but with Vidal’s arrival so much closer I had to.

23. Hi Itch,
    I always read your column. I picked up Winn and dropped Small in one of my dynasty leagues. I am hoping some of those promising Texas pitchers can stay healthy. I also am ready to press the the button Gittens if he ever gittens to NYC…. (Terrible)

    When do players like Eric Pena, Luis Rodriguez, Jasson Dominguez play? Does their season start later?

    Finally, Ozuna is the definition of taking a step off into the human abyss. Does his injury and arrest mean we can cut bait in redraft?

    Have a great Memorial Day weekend.

24. Zac Veen makes for great spoonerism right now

    • Grey! Would you drop Ozuna for Tyler O’Neill?

      • My thoughts. Depends on your league. Redraft?

        He’s out for 5-6 weeks with his fingers. And then it’s possible he gets some sort of suspension relating to his arrest. His value is very very low at present.

        I’d consider dropping him for a pair of O’Neill borad shorts.

        Another Dan

      • Yes

    • Good ole Vac

      • There’s an injection joke in here somewhere, though perhaps it should be in Seattle

        • Haha

    • LMAO!!!!! Hilarious. You know I’ll find a way to fit this into a future convo.

      BTW Itch, nice post. 70 comments and counting. Excellent to see. Love your write-ups.

      Jolt

      • Thanks Jolt!

25. Hi there, just curious about E Olivares and K Howell update ranks. Both have are off to hot starts but there’s something else you have seen on them to give them that huge upgrade at ranks?

    Great Stuff BWT!

    • Hi, Wenger,

      Olivares has become expert at pitch selection. KC hired a great hitting coach a couple years ago who synthesis tech and feel in effective ways, and then he installed a team in part because the new ownership group wants to invest in the club. Anyway, Pratto and Olivares appear to be fruits of this effort.

      Howell has played in my area for a while: JuCo and Northwest League. Supreme athletic talent who was a little overlooked due to being a small school Midwest guy who needed some mechanical work. Milwaukee loves this type of player, trusts is coaching and development staff (see Garrett Mitchell pick) and really seems to have something in Howell, who’s been dominating so far in a stacked High-A league.

26. Hey Itch,

    Thanks for the post. I will be using it to identify possible targets in my shallower leagues. In my 30 tm league most of those guys are in GM’s ‘unavailable’ lists.

    In that 30 team league I am struggling for OF (Robert, Ozuna). I have Duran pencilled into my OF later this season, but am looking at trading for a stop gap OF. I have Tyler Nevin and am shopping him. Do Willie Calhoun, Odubel Herrera or Duggar sound OK options? Am I missing anything on Nevin? I don’t have him as a full time MLB player long term, more a BN bat.

    Best wishes,

    Another Dan

    • Hi, Another Dan,

      Those all sound like solid stopgap options to me. I think I’d go with Willie C if I had the choice, but Duggar is interesting with that staff in San Fran.

      Nevin can hit a little bit but yeah, likely a bench bat.

      Hope you’re enjoying the long weekend!

      – Itch

27. Itch!! Love the prospect lists! My team in dynasty league is bad, but this makes me feel better. All five hitters I have stashed (includes Franco and Brujan) are in your top 20 overall, and I have 2 sp in your top 35, another 2 in top 75.

    Curious what you think about Austin Hendrick. I’m looking for OF help in this league and it’s a walks/obp league so that helps boost hendrick’s value a bit.

    • Thanks, Jr!

      Sounds like a great foundation! I’d love to start a team with Wander and Brujan!

      I’m not high on Hendrick’s hit tool, but he is a big-time talent, and the OBP is a major boost because that’s his game early on as a pro: extreme patience. I hope it’s because he’s got a better plate-feel than the young umps and not because he’s a tick late. Early enough in his prospect life cycle that even if he’s not a big success early, he’ll hold trade value for a couple years.

      • Thanks for the feedback on him! That’s really helpful!

        Yeah, super promising prospect base. We have 10 Na spots, and if they have no regular season major league experience they can be kept for free. I’m rolling with Franco, Brujan, Rutschman, Noelvi, Matos, Greene, Grayson, Hall, And Howard. My team is terrible offensively so hopefully that core will help me compete in a few years.

28. Been holding Brujan in my redraft league with the hope he’d get the call soon, but with the rash of injuries lately, I’m contemplating dropping him to snag an OF to fill in while Laureano heals.

    Would you drop him for Eddie Rosario’s double-header tomorrow?

    thanks in advance,

    • Hmm, I suspect you could play the drop and pick-em-up game for another week or so with Brujan.

      June 10+ is the target date.

      Depends on the league, as always, but in RCL 12s, he probably slides through waivers in most leagues at the moment.

    • I would not drop him.

      Anyone with any savvy in your league will notice and grab him. You’re playing with fire if you drop him. Don’t.

29. Josh Lowe is crushing AAA. I’ve already been selling pieces in my mini dynasty keeper league and got high end prospect returns. The league has an in season cap salary. I have a $30 springer that no one wants to touch. Do I trade my springer for a j. Lowe which I’m higher than you on (me top 30) or wait a little longer. I guess what I’m asking is do I trade a hard to aquire (due to salary cap) Springer, for a top 30 prospect?

30. Why do you rank Wilman Diaz so highly? From what I’ve read a lot of guys have Diaz/Cristian Hernandez/Colmenarez in some sort of similiar tier.

31. Hey Itch,

    Any opinion on Jake Burger? I think the Mercedes train will be done by the middle of July. He’s already falling apart. Just a matter of time now. And the White Sox seem interested in Burger as a 1B/DH guy for the stretch run. Any thoughts?

    • Also Itch,

      Why the sudden love for Gunnar Henderson? I think I said something to you about him back in February and got a “meh” type reaction. Something change your mind on him, or do I not remember your opinion correctly?

32. Dynasty Lg: we hold 10 minor slots:

    F Alvarez, A Rutschman, S Beer, L Garcia, K Hiura, Y Diaz, T Houck, A Manoah.

    These are the 8 I carry right now….. we have a 14 day window to call up once they are up. Hoping Hiura is sent back down and Manoah will be on my MLB roster.

    I know what I have with the 2 catchers…. looking to keep one long term and flip one in a deal.

    Garcia, Beer, Yiaz, Houck……. From these 4…. anything to hold on to? What are you thoughts on each?

    Thanks Itch

33. Hi Itch,

    These are truly majestic! Thank you.

    Burleson is a new name for me this year – what kind of a ceiling do you see there?

    I could acquire him in Dynasty for a ‘medium’ price (a non-keeper closer – Ian Kennedy) but it’s a 3rd place team in a ££ league so don’t want to gamble if the ceiling isn’t that high….

    Thanks!

34. It looks like from this list that there’s no reason to keep holding Brendan McKay in a minor league spot? (Or is he no longer considered a prospect?)

35. Liover Peguero is way higher on your list than anything else I’ve seen. Has he made huge strides that we are just now seeing?

36. Would you drop
    Nick Anderson
    Aaron Bracho
    Julian Merrywheather
    Devin Williams
    Or
    Pete Crow-Armstrong

    For
    Kyle Muller

37. Gold. Gold i say.

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