You ever go so far into the weeds on the internet you forget what you’re even looking for, and, five hours later, you’re like, “How did Tommy Edman lead me to researching why a group of crows is called a murder?” No? Well, it happened to me. By the way, I’m interested in joining a Patreon for a true crime podcast about murder by a murder of crows. Hit me up if you know any. So, after purchasing on eBay a large stuffed crow that had a recorder hidden in its throat that played Snoop Dogg’s Murder Was the Case, I decided I didn’t want any more weak exit velocity guys. I perused the bottom 50 for exit velocity for 2018 to see if any of these guys did better in 2019. Yes, but the odds were not in their favor. Kolten Wong, Kevin Kiermaier and Jarrod Dyson were about it. You need to have speed to have a chance. This list would’ve scared me off David Fletcher last year, since he doesn’t have any real speed. Why did I even go down this rabbit hole? Tommy Edman’s 87.1 MPH exit velocity scared me, and how it was 216th overall in MLB. It’s not in the bottom 50 though! So, ‘natch! In fact, mucho ‘natches! All dem natches! Edman is making some weak contact though, so let’s see why I still like him. Anyway, what can we expect from Tommy Edman for 2020 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

Tommy Edman was 41st in the majors for expected batting average (.281). Right behind, Jeff McNeil and Whit Merrifield. Ya know, two guys who gave a lot of value for batting average. Edman’s 24.7 line drive rate, put him over league average by three percentage points. (By the way, Statcast and FanGraphs use different degrees to judge grounders, liners and fly balls. I use mostly FanGraphs for batted ball profile, but occasionally use Statcast. I try to stay consistent within a post, at least, but shizz gets confusing sometimes. You’ll have to excuse me, and I will refund you the exactly zero dollars you pay me. For what it’s Jayson Werth, StatCast is more generous on what a line drive is. For unstints, they have Edman down for a 29.1% line drive rate, but ‘their’ league average is 25.5%. So, it’s kinda like juiced balls. If they’re all juiced, are any juiced? *insert GIF of mind blowing*) Last year, Edman hit .304 with a 17.5% strikeout rate, and a slightly above league average chase rate. In Triple-A, his strikeout rate was generally around 15%. This is good. Even as a 24-year-old rookie, he showed solid plate discipline, and I imagine it will become elite. With his not-as-terrible-as-it-could-be exit velocity, he will hit at least .280, assuming he has any speed. Yo, we in luck, boys and five girls! He stole 15 bags last year in 16 attempts in the majors and 24 of 25 steals in Triple-A and majors combined. It will be no surprise to most that he had a top 25 sprint speed. He can steal bases and elevate his BABIP. A .320+ BABIP with a .280+ average and 25+ steals seems like a lock. That’s all he needs to do to have sleeper value. How’sever, it’s not where it ends. In 526 at-bats between Triple-A and the majors, he had 18 homers. Oh…*climbs to the top of Mt. Rushmore and hangs from George Washington’s nose*…kay. To grab two names who had lower expected slugging percentages than Edman:  Paul DeJong and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Edman even hit one home run 421 feet. No, this isn’t his game, and Glad Vuerrero and JeDong might be misleading, but still. Edman only needs to get into 15 homers across 550 ABs to add to his solid average and speed. I rarely talk about runs and RBIs in these posts, because that’s just contingent on lineup placement and production around him, but Edman makes the most sense in one of the top two spots in the lineup. Doode’s a full-on yum! For 2020, I’ll give Tommy Edman projections 86/14/56/.284/27 in 568 ABs with a chance for more.

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Garrett
Garrett
2 years ago

Hey grey

Just acquired Edman in my keeper pool in offseason. My Keepers right now are: meadows, FTJ, Robles. Eloy, Soto, Villar and story.

I have 1 last spot for keeper debating between Edman solak or JD Davis for 3b / roster flexibility. Which do you like better for 2020 and 2021. Both players are $5 right and would jump to $10 next years. Can only choose 1

Smitty
2 years ago

Should grabbed Edman, missed on him. Maybe in March…

Smitty
Reply to  Smitty
2 years ago

*Should’ve

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Smitty
2 years ago

Just sign up for another draft now so you can grab!

Dave D
Dave D
2 years ago

Well, apparently signing Rich Hill comes with some serious baggage, and he won’t even be the one carrying it.

Dan
Dan
2 years ago

In a 14 team H2H Points league, $260 would you accept:

Give: $40 machado/$10 woodruff
Get: $32 Rendon / $1 Bichette

Not sure how high I should be valuing woodruff this year. Was thinking of keeping him over $35 verlander. Also have $6 Bieber and $10 giolito so I could stand to lose the arm I think.

baseballbanter
baseballbanter
2 years ago

greetings grey. first and foremost happiest of holidays.

a completely unrelated blurb but need your two cents.

in a deep 22 dynasty league. so anyone worth any value is rostered. (25 players per team)

that being said. yoshitomo tsutsugo is being treated as a new player due to his recent signing. the FAAB budget is $1000. the current bid is at $350.

where do you think his value lies? there are n’t going to be many more opportunities to secure a potential 25 homerun and high OBP asset like him. how high would you bid on him?

needs wise i dont require his presence but he would really provide a boost and has 3B eligibility which would help considerably.

please advise and thanks boss.

baseballbanter
baseballbanter
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

its for the whole season. but once again, there wont be many opportunities to secure the kind of potential that yoshi promises.

baseballbanter
baseballbanter
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

basically that and any role/reserve players that might breakout.

we have both majors and minors rosters covered with 25 players on both rosters so each team has 50 players total.

baseballbanter
baseballbanter
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

this is the first year of this league.

some of the “biggest” names on the wire right now are: Adam Frazier, Healy, Galvis, Aaron Gordon, Reddick, Severino, Franco, Smyly, Cashner, Mchugh, Woj

you get the idea

baseballbanter
baseballbanter
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

I was thinking $400 but yeah $375 is a good limit. Thanks for the insight as always.

SwaggerJackers
SwaggerJackers
2 years ago

@Grey: Happy Holidays, buddy!

Could Edman be the next McNeil but with more speed?

12 Team H2H Category
OBP instead of AVG, SVHD instead of SV
Keepers can be kept indefinitely with no penalty. Please pick 4:

Acuna
G Cole
Trea Turner
Albombso
Devers
Buehler

Peacecoast
Peacecoast
2 years ago

yo G! wadap.

what’s Ohtani’s value in a 12 team mixed league that has daily roster changes? I think I am feeling it.

How’s the new house?

Peacecoast
Peacecoast
Reply to  Peacecoast
2 years ago

I meant daily lineups! weekly FAAB.

Peacecoast
Peacecoast
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

I have missed you more than the Sun misses its penis.

Peacecoast
Peacecoast
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

so Fleabag? best TV I have watched in couple years.

Peacecoast
Peacecoast
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

ya I did vikings for awhile. didn’t like the main guy tho and never understood why he left his first wife and fucking first born son?? I mean isn’t that his GD heir? bah.

TLK was better. I am Uhtred, son of Uhtred.

Peacecoast
Peacecoast
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

that is what did it for me, I don’t like when they make protagonists make obviously stupid choices, like ray donovan. Lost that show too when he was acting like a dumbass.

you watch The Spy yet? sacha baron cohen series netflix. good stuff.

Big Ticket
Big Ticket
2 years ago

Any concern he doesn’t reach 568 AB’s, given so much free agency still to come?

Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
2 years ago

Feel like Ryu is going to be underpriced (again!) thanks to him signing with the jays….

Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

I think people think he’s injury prone or something, but he really isn’t besides the fluke torn scrotum thing! Maybe he lacks the gaudy k numbers? I’d happy Have him on my squad.

Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

Jeez!!! Don’t even need to draft him as a #2!

I’ve had him the last 3 years too, always fir a great price or free.

Matty
Matty
2 years ago

I love these sleeper posts, but now I have a thousand batters that I’m targeting.
Beggars can’t be choosers and all, but are there going to be any more pitcher sleeper posts? Is it just too wildly variable to be worth projecting?

Matty
Matty
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

Awesome. Can’t wait to balance out my want list.
Thanks.

Dave D
Dave D
2 years ago

I’m not saying he won’t be a good value, but I have rarely, if ever, gotten a good return on drafting a STL position player. I’m not sure what it is about the team, but if they are oil, I am water. That being said, I drafted Flaherty and Wainwright in my first DC. I think I’m safe on that one, but maybe I should say a prayer to the fantasy gods just in case.

It seems like a lot of people are suspicious of his ADP, so if he does keep it up it could be a good value.

Coolwhip
Reply to  Dave D
2 years ago

There’s just so many MIs that were productive(ish) last year so he may not be the upside i’ll be looking at. You think Waino is safe Dave?

So allegedly Blue Jays are signing Ryu to 4-year $80M and Keuchel signed with White Sox earlier this weekend. Congrats Angels, you have let all the pitchers slip through your fingers. Ryu actually made real baseball sense and because they failed at the others after Cole, i figured they were targeting him, especially after they signed Teheran to cheap short contract leaving room to pay for him. And now it looks like they missed that boat too. smh. Did Eppler forget charge his phone this weekend? yeah, that must be it.

Coolwhip
Reply to  Coolwhip
2 years ago

Might end up with trading Walsh + 1 for Boyd *eyeroll* or something like that

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Coolwhip
2 years ago

Ryu signing would be stupid in my opinion at that guaranteed amount given he has no track record of ever having two fully healthy MLB seasons in a row. What happens if he does the next three seasons what he did the three seasons prior to 2019 and starts 40 games total? Thats 13.3 starts a season? Is that worth $20 mil year? How do you plan for him being #1 or #2 on a staff?

No thanks.

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

Where you drafted him is fine, which is well below ADP. Monopoly money though in comparison to real life.

Coolwhip
Reply to  Dave D
2 years ago

I mostly agree, i’m more musing that they spent their time pursuing him only to not get him, meanwhile they missed out on all the others plus the trade of Kluber that went to our division rival… here we are now, sitting on Baltic Ave with crap.

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

As to be expected. Press “repeat” on the history button.

Crazy J
Crazy J
Reply to  Coolwhip
2 years ago

Just build hotels, they’ll eventually land on it.

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Coolwhip
2 years ago

Look at his home/road splits and then get back to me. he is my 10th SP, and I plan to start him for select home games only.

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

Yeah, I expect Wong to pull a Harrison Bader or Dexter Fowler type plunge this year. Aside from Yadier before this year, there’s no one Id feel comfortable returning on their ADP. Maybe for late round fliers in DC, but that is one teamI avoid. Lots of other options.

goodfold2
goodfold2
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

ralph had always said the dude had a weakness with…. righties, you know those pitchers that make up what like high 60%’s of all pitchers or more. it was why he wasn’t very highly ranked as a prospect even though some tools were very very good (speed, defense, some power, not horrible hit tool, certainly against lefties)

Snacks Zillion
Snacks Zillion
2 years ago

I grabbed Dozier ($21.12) in my 12 team 5×5 rotisserie league. Just got offered Rizzo (22.40) or Benitendi (19.00) for him. I am thinking take Rizzo for sure. Your thoughts? Also being new to rotisserie is it better to have like 10 really solid guys with a few studs mixed in or to fill out a complete roster with alot thinner talent? I punted saves, too volatile. As always thanks amigo.

Snacks Zillion
Snacks Zillion
2 years ago

I grabbed Dozier ($21.12) in my 12 team 5×5 rotisserie league. Just got offered Rizzo (22.40) for him. I am thinking do it for sure. Your thoughts? Also being new to rotisserie is it better to have like 10 really solid guys with a few studs mixed in or to fill out a complete roster with alot thinner talent? I punted saves, too volatile. As always thanks amigo.

goodfold2
goodfold2
2 years ago

(continued from last post):

i’ve never even heard of any other famous american whole town (well it was a 120 person colony at the time) disappearing. it’s too perfect that i got a copy of leftovers from there. so perfect i just now checked where it was sent from (aurora, IL, i.e. wayne’s world environs (CHI suburb)) and yeah, quite possible previous owner just stamped that with it NOT actually being from roanoke. good joke even then. he might just buy these, stamp them, then sell them knowing full well how the recipient will notice how perfectly ironic that is.

goodfold2
goodfold2
Reply to  goodfold2
2 years ago

oops, even i’m doing it, how perfectly NON ironic that is.

goodfold2
goodfold2
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

hahaha. yeah just have the box be aged to like 400 or so years ago, all set.

goodfold2
goodfold2
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

meanwhile on my end i had forgotten about v.dare (supposedly 1st british colonist born in what later became the u.s., and one of the 120 that went missing)

goodfold2
goodfold2
Reply to  goodfold2
2 years ago

sounds like i can get a 5.12 or 5.24 for quintana, i put out that i won’t be keeping a majority of quintana, antana, rosario, wong, segura. guy sent a 5.24 for quintana and a 5.12 for rosario, i asked if he’d do the 5.12 for quintana. if antana is the better keep i could trade both for both.

goodfold2
goodfold2
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

remember i can only keep 3 out of
sale (23.57 if franchised, if restricted he’ll probably get bid up to similar amount)
e.rosario (4.2 if franchised, far more if restricted)
antana (league min .4 if franchised)
moustakas (16 mil and probably near that if restricted)

yesterday it was restrict sale, keep one of rosario/antana and moustakas.

an owner that needs a tag will do his 5.2 for either of moustakas/rosario or quintana for 5.24 (i’m doing the quintana trade unless i pivot to antana/mostsuckass/sale as kept)

goodfold2
goodfold2
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

ok, that’s what i thought you’d say but misread yesterday, thought you said only one of rosario/antana. and trade quintana (for the 5.24) NOT moustsuckass (even though i’d get back a 5.2 for him) as i probably could win him in bidding for similar to the 16 he’d cost franchising.

goodfold2
goodfold2
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

i’m also about to ask comish now that i have a baseline for these 3 (5.2-5.24 which aren’t that great of picks)

2. another question, what about barreto, is he worth a 2nd rounder? 2.22. he’s on a .4 till end of 22 deal. owner is looking for picks and/or prospects and my adell/trammell/kirilloff are off limits but he’s looking for at least a 2nd rounder.