You ever go so far into the weeds on the internet you forget what you’re even looking for, and, five hours later, you’re like, “How did Tommy Edman lead me to researching why a group of crows is called a murder?” No? Well, it happened to me. By the way, I’m interested in joining a Patreon for a true crime podcast about murder by a murder of crows. Hit me up if you know any. So, after purchasing on eBay a large stuffed crow that had a recorder hidden in its throat that played Snoop Dogg’s Murder Was the Case, I decided I didn’t want any more weak exit velocity guys. I perused the bottom 50 for exit velocity for 2018 to see if any of these guys did better in 2019. Yes, but the odds were not in their favor. Kolten Wong, Kevin Kiermaier and Jarrod Dyson were about it. You need to have speed to have a chance. This list would’ve scared me off David Fletcher last year, since he doesn’t have any real speed. Why did I even go down this rabbit hole? Tommy Edman’s 87.1 MPH exit velocity scared me, and how it was 216th overall in MLB. It’s not in the bottom 50 though! So, ‘natch! In fact, mucho ‘natches! All dem natches! Edman is making some weak contact though, so let’s see why I still like him. Anyway, what can we expect from Tommy Edman for 2020 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

Tommy Edman was 41st in the majors for expected batting average (.281). Right behind, Jeff McNeil and Whit Merrifield. Ya know, two guys who gave a lot of value for batting average. Edman’s 24.7 line drive rate, put him over league average by three percentage points. (By the way, Statcast and FanGraphs use different degrees to judge grounders, liners and fly balls. I use mostly FanGraphs for batted ball profile, but occasionally use Statcast. I try to stay consistent within a post, at least, but shizz gets confusing sometimes. You’ll have to excuse me, and I will refund you the exactly zero dollars you pay me. For what it’s Jayson Werth, StatCast is more generous on what a line drive is. For unstints, they have Edman down for a 29.1% line drive rate, but ‘their’ league average is 25.5%. So, it’s kinda like juiced balls. If they’re all juiced, are any juiced? *insert GIF of mind blowing*) Last year, Edman hit .304 with a 17.5% strikeout rate, and a slightly above league average chase rate. In Triple-A, his strikeout rate was generally around 15%. This is good. Even as a 24-year-old rookie, he showed solid plate discipline, and I imagine it will become elite. With his not-as-terrible-as-it-could-be exit velocity, he will hit at least .280, assuming he has any speed. Yo, we in luck, boys and five girls! He stole 15 bags last year in 16 attempts in the majors and 24 of 25 steals in Triple-A and majors combined. It will be no surprise to most that he had a top 25 sprint speed. He can steal bases and elevate his BABIP. A .320+ BABIP with a .280+ average and 25+ steals seems like a lock. That’s all he needs to do to have sleeper value. How’sever, it’s not where it ends. In 526 at-bats between Triple-A and the majors, he had 18 homers. Oh…*climbs to the top of Mt. Rushmore and hangs from George Washington’s nose*…kay. To grab two names who had lower expected slugging percentages than Edman:  Paul DeJong and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Edman even hit one home run 421 feet. No, this isn’t his game, and Glad Vuerrero and JeDong might be misleading, but still. Edman only needs to get into 15 homers across 550 ABs to add to his solid average and speed. I rarely talk about runs and RBIs in these posts, because that’s just contingent on lineup placement and production around him, but Edman makes the most sense in one of the top two spots in the lineup. Doode’s a full-on yum! For 2020, I’ll give Tommy Edman projections 86/14/56/.284/27 in 568 ABs with a chance for more.

 
  1. goodfold2 says:
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    (continued from last post):

    i’ve never even heard of any other famous american whole town (well it was a 120 person colony at the time) disappearing. it’s too perfect that i got a copy of leftovers from there. so perfect i just now checked where it was sent from (aurora, IL, i.e. wayne’s world environs (CHI suburb)) and yeah, quite possible previous owner just stamped that with it NOT actually being from roanoke. good joke even then. he might just buy these, stamp them, then sell them knowing full well how the recipient will notice how perfectly ironic that is.

    • goodfold2 says:
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      oops, even i’m doing it, how perfectly NON ironic that is.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I never heard of any city disappearing, or I guess I heard and forgot, bc Virginia Dare does ring a bell… You should sell keys to the city of Roanoke but have it be an empty box… Could actually sell a lot of empty boxes of stuff and say it’s from Roanoke, pre-reemergence

      • goodfold2 says:
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        hahaha. yeah just have the box be aged to like 400 or so years ago, all set.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Haha, perfect!

          • goodfold2 says:
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            meanwhile on my end i had forgotten about v.dare (supposedly 1st british colonist born in what later became the u.s., and one of the 120 that went missing)

            • goodfold2 says:
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              sounds like i can get a 5.12 or 5.24 for quintana, i put out that i won’t be keeping a majority of quintana, antana, rosario, wong, segura. guy sent a 5.24 for quintana and a 5.12 for rosario, i asked if he’d do the 5.12 for quintana. if antana is the better keep i could trade both for both.

              • Grey

                Grey says:
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                Well, I like Antana and Rosario, so not keeping?

                • goodfold2 says:
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                  remember i can only keep 3 out of
                  sale (23.57 if franchised, if restricted he’ll probably get bid up to similar amount)
                  e.rosario (4.2 if franchised, far more if restricted)
                  antana (league min .4 if franchised)
                  moustakas (16 mil and probably near that if restricted)

                  yesterday it was restrict sale, keep one of rosario/antana and moustakas.

                  an owner that needs a tag will do his 5.2 for either of moustakas/rosario or quintana for 5.24 (i’m doing the quintana trade unless i pivot to antana/mostsuckass/sale as kept)

                  • Grey

                    Grey says:
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                    Right, so you send back Moist — Rosario is safest and cheapest, Sale restricted then Antana

                    • goodfold2 says:
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                      ok, that’s what i thought you’d say but misread yesterday, thought you said only one of rosario/antana. and trade quintana (for the 5.24) NOT moustsuckass (even though i’d get back a 5.2 for him) as i probably could win him in bidding for similar to the 16 he’d cost franchising.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              What’s the chances!?

              • goodfold2 says:
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                i’m also about to ask comish now that i have a baseline for these 3 (5.2-5.24 which aren’t that great of picks)

                2. another question, what about barreto, is he worth a 2nd rounder? 2.22. he’s on a .4 till end of 22 deal. owner is looking for picks and/or prospects and my adell/trammell/kirilloff are off limits but he’s looking for at least a 2nd rounder.

  2. Snacks Zillion says:
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    I grabbed Dozier ($21.12) in my 12 team 5×5 rotisserie league. Just got offered Rizzo (22.40) for him. I am thinking do it for sure. Your thoughts? Also being new to rotisserie is it better to have like 10 really solid guys with a few studs mixed in or to fill out a complete roster with alot thinner talent? I punted saves, too volatile. As always thanks amigo.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I’d want Rizzo

  3. Snacks Zillion says:
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    I grabbed Dozier ($21.12) in my 12 team 5×5 rotisserie league. Just got offered Rizzo (22.40) or Benitendi (19.00) for him. I am thinking take Rizzo for sure. Your thoughts? Also being new to rotisserie is it better to have like 10 really solid guys with a few studs mixed in or to fill out a complete roster with alot thinner talent? I punted saves, too volatile. As always thanks amigo.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I’d take Rizzo

  4. Dave D says:
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    I’m not saying he won’t be a good value, but I have rarely, if ever, gotten a good return on drafting a STL position player. I’m not sure what it is about the team, but if they are oil, I am water. That being said, I drafted Flaherty and Wainwright in my first DC. I think I’m safe on that one, but maybe I should say a prayer to the fantasy gods just in case.

    It seems like a lot of people are suspicious of his ADP, so if he does keep it up it could be a good value.

    • Coolwhip

      Coolwhip says:
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      There’s just so many MIs that were productive(ish) last year so he may not be the upside i’ll be looking at. You think Waino is safe Dave?

      So allegedly Blue Jays are signing Ryu to 4-year $80M and Keuchel signed with White Sox earlier this weekend. Congrats Angels, you have let all the pitchers slip through your fingers. Ryu actually made real baseball sense and because they failed at the others after Cole, i figured they were targeting him, especially after they signed Teheran to cheap short contract leaving room to pay for him. And now it looks like they missed that boat too. smh. Did Eppler forget charge his phone this weekend? yeah, that must be it.

      • Coolwhip

        Coolwhip says:
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        Might end up with trading Walsh + 1 for Boyd *eyeroll* or something like that

        • Dave D says:
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          Ryu signing would be stupid in my opinion at that guaranteed amount given he has no track record of ever having two fully healthy MLB seasons in a row. What happens if he does the next three seasons what he did the three seasons prior to 2019 and starts 40 games total? Thats 13.3 starts a season? Is that worth $20 mil year? How do you plan for him being #1 or #2 on a staff?

          No thanks.

          • Grey

            Grey says:
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            As a real life move, it’s not something I’d do ever…plus the Jays are that close to contending? Didn’t think so

            For fantasy, I like him

            • Dave D says:
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              Where you drafted him is fine, which is well below ADP. Monopoly money though in comparison to real life.

              • Grey

                Grey says:
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                Yeah, totally

          • Coolwhip

            Coolwhip says:
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            I mostly agree, i’m more musing that they spent their time pursuing him only to not get him, meanwhile they missed out on all the others plus the trade of Kluber that went to our division rival… here we are now, sitting on Baltic Ave with crap.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Haha

              • Dave D says:
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                As to be expected. Press “repeat” on the history button.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Ha, yup

            • Crazy J says:
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              Just build hotels, they’ll eventually land on it.

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        Blue Jays were a lot more engaged than I thought they would be… They still seem 2 years away, but still…

      • Dave D says:
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        Look at his home/road splits and then get back to me. he is my 10th SP, and I plan to start him for select home games only.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      There does seem to be something anecdotally to Cards pitchers doing well, but not their hitters… But then you have Wong last year, who was good, though don’t full trust him

      • Dave D says:
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        Yeah, I expect Wong to pull a Harrison Bader or Dexter Fowler type plunge this year. Aside from Yadier before this year, there’s no one Id feel comfortable returning on their ADP. Maybe for late round fliers in DC, but that is one teamI avoid. Lots of other options.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          I hear ya, I’m not totally sold on Wong either… I do think Bader is a bust too, his peripherals look so bad

          • goodfold2 says:
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            ralph had always said the dude had a weakness with…. righties, you know those pitchers that make up what like high 60%’s of all pitchers or more. it was why he wasn’t very highly ranked as a prospect even though some tools were very very good (speed, defense, some power, not horrible hit tool, certainly against lefties)

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Yup

  5. Matty says:
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    I love these sleeper posts, but now I have a thousand batters that I’m targeting.
    Beggars can’t be choosers and all, but are there going to be any more pitcher sleeper posts? Is it just too wildly variable to be worth projecting?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Pitchers start next

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        That’s pitcher sleepers

        • Matty says:
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          Awesome. Can’t wait to balance out my want list.
          Thanks.

          • Grey

            Grey says:
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            A Naughty/Nice list

  6. Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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    Feel like Ryu is going to be underpriced (again!) thanks to him signing with the jays….

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      He’s always so underpriced! What’s the deal?

      • Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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        I think people think he’s injury prone or something, but he really isn’t besides the fluke torn scrotum thing! Maybe he lacks the gaudy k numbers? I’d happy Have him on my squad.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yup, I drafted him like around 150 early in December in a NFBC league… he had a sub-2 ERA in 2018 too!

          • Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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            Jeez!!! Don’t even need to draft him as a #2!

            I’ve had him the last 3 years too, always fir a great price or free.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Yup! I’ll take a 3.50 ERA and be thrilled

  7. Big Ticket says:
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    Any concern he doesn’t reach 568 AB’s, given so much free agency still to come?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I’ll adjust his projected ABs if they sign someone else, but he seems like he has the starting job right now

  8. Peacecoast says:
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    yo G! wadap.

    what’s Ohtani’s value in a 12 team mixed league that has daily roster changes? I think I am feeling it.

    How’s the new house?

    • Peacecoast says:
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      I meant daily lineups! weekly FAAB.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Wow, Peacecoast is in the house! These holidays are blessed!

      Ohtani is overrated mostly, but in 12 team daily he’s not terrible, prolly around top 100 pick

      House is finally coming to fruition… We got a sofa, wrong color, our designer was colorblind — it’s awesome!

      • Peacecoast says:
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        I have missed you more than the Sun misses its penis.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Everything But The Girl had a way with lyrics

          • Peacecoast says:
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            so Fleabag? best TV I have watched in couple years.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Yeah? 1st season was okay, I need to go back and watch 2nd season… I’m liking Vikings on Hulu…it’s like TLK lite

              • Peacecoast says:
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                ya I did vikings for awhile. didn’t like the main guy tho and never understood why he left his first wife and fucking first born son?? I mean isn’t that his GD heir? bah.

                TLK was better. I am Uhtred, son of Uhtred.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Oh yeah, for sure… TLK was awesome… Vikings isn’t bad, you picked out one big problem… how ya gonna leave Lagertha?! Cmon Ragnar!

                  • Peacecoast says:
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                    that is what did it for me, I don’t like when they make protagonists make obviously stupid choices, like ray donovan. Lost that show too when he was acting like a dumbass.

                    you watch The Spy yet? sacha baron cohen series netflix. good stuff.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Yeah, I like The Spy, but I feel like from watching docs about Israeli spies, I know as much as I need to know now… I dropped Ray Donovan about 4 years ago, bleh

  9. SwaggerJackers says:
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    @Grey: Happy Holidays, buddy!

    Could Edman be the next McNeil but with more speed?

    12 Team H2H Category
    OBP instead of AVG, SVHD instead of SV
    Keepers can be kept indefinitely with no penalty. Please pick 4:

    Acuna
    G Cole
    Trea Turner
    Albombso
    Devers
    Buehler

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yes, Edman could be! Though I wouldn’t expect .320+….

      Acuna, Trea, Cole, Alonso

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Happy holidays too!

  10. baseballbanter says:
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    greetings grey. first and foremost happiest of holidays.

    a completely unrelated blurb but need your two cents.

    in a deep 22 dynasty league. so anyone worth any value is rostered. (25 players per team)

    that being said. yoshitomo tsutsugo is being treated as a new player due to his recent signing. the FAAB budget is $1000. the current bid is at $350.

    where do you think his value lies? there are n’t going to be many more opportunities to secure a potential 25 homerun and high OBP asset like him. how high would you bid on him?

    needs wise i dont require his presence but he would really provide a boost and has 3B eligibility which would help considerably.

    please advise and thanks boss.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Happy holidays! So is the $1000 for just preseason or is this for the whole season?

      • baseballbanter says:
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        its for the whole season. but once again, there wont be many opportunities to secure the kind of potential that yoshi promises.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Hmm… so you’re bidding on rookies who are free agents and not much else?

          • baseballbanter says:
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            basically that and any role/reserve players that might breakout.

            we have both majors and minors rosters covered with 25 players on both rosters so each team has 50 players total.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Who was biggest name last year?

              • baseballbanter says:
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                this is the first year of this league.

                some of the “biggest” names on the wire right now are: Adam Frazier, Healy, Galvis, Aaron Gordon, Reddick, Severino, Franco, Smyly, Cashner, Mchugh, Woj

                you get the idea

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Assuming Pedro Severino there… So, yeah, not too many interesting names… I’d go to $375

                  • baseballbanter says:
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                    I was thinking $400 but yeah $375 is a good limit. Thanks for the insight as always.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      No problem

  11. Dan says:
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    In a 14 team H2H Points league, $260 would you accept:

    Give: $40 machado/$10 woodruff
    Get: $32 Rendon / $1 Bichette

    Not sure how high I should be valuing woodruff this year. Was thinking of keeping him over $35 verlander. Also have $6 Bieber and $10 giolito so I could stand to lose the arm I think.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Works for me

  12. Dave D says:
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    Well, apparently signing Rich Hill comes with some serious baggage, and he won’t even be the one carrying it.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      HA

  13. Smitty says:
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    Should grabbed Edman, missed on him. Maybe in March…

    • Smitty says:
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      *Should’ve

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      There’s time

    • Dave D says:
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      Just sign up for another draft now so you can grab!

  14. Garrett says:
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    Hey grey

    Just acquired Edman in my keeper pool in offseason. My Keepers right now are: meadows, FTJ, Robles. Eloy, Soto, Villar and story.

    I have 1 last spot for keeper debating between Edman solak or JD Davis for 3b / roster flexibility. Which do you like better for 2020 and 2021. Both players are $5 right and would jump to $10 next years. Can only choose 1

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      JD as long as he keeps starting job

Comments are closed.