You ever go so far into the weeds on the internet you forget what you’re even looking for, and, five hours later, you’re like, “How did Tommy Edman lead me to researching why a group of crows is called a murder?” No? Well, it happened to me. By the way, I’m interested in joining a Patreon for a true crime podcast about murder by a murder of crows. Hit me up if you know any. So, after purchasing on eBay a large stuffed crow that had a recorder hidden in its throat that played Snoop Dogg’s Murder Was the Case, I decided I didn’t want any more weak exit velocity guys. I perused the bottom 50 for exit velocity for 2018 to see if any of these guys did better in 2019. Yes, but the odds were not in their favor. Kolten Wong, Kevin Kiermaier and Jarrod Dyson were about it. You need to have speed to have a chance. This list would’ve scared me off David Fletcher last year, since he doesn’t have any real speed. Why did I even go down this rabbit hole? Tommy Edman’s 87.1 MPH exit velocity scared me, and how it was 216th overall in MLB. It’s not in the bottom 50 though! So, ‘natch! In fact, mucho ‘natches! All dem natches! Edman is making some weak contact though, so let’s see why I still like him. Anyway, what can we expect from Tommy Edman for 2020 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?
Tommy Edman was 41st in the majors for expected batting average (.281). Right behind, Jeff McNeil and Whit Merrifield. Ya know, two guys who gave a lot of value for batting average. Edman’s 24.7 line drive rate, put him over league average by three percentage points. (By the way, Statcast and FanGraphs use different degrees to judge grounders, liners and fly balls. I use mostly FanGraphs for batted ball profile, but occasionally use Statcast. I try to stay consistent within a post, at least, but shizz gets confusing sometimes. You’ll have to excuse me, and I will refund you the exactly zero dollars you pay me. For what it’s Jayson Werth, StatCast is more generous on what a line drive is. For unstints, they have Edman down for a 29.1% line drive rate, but ‘their’ league average is 25.5%. So, it’s kinda like juiced balls. If they’re all juiced, are any juiced? *insert GIF of mind blowing*) Last year, Edman hit .304 with a 17.5% strikeout rate, and a slightly above league average chase rate. In Triple-A, his strikeout rate was generally around 15%. This is good. Even as a 24-year-old rookie, he showed solid plate discipline, and I imagine it will become elite. With his not-as-terrible-as-it-could-be exit velocity, he will hit at least .280, assuming he has any speed. Yo, we in luck, boys and five girls! He stole 15 bags last year in 16 attempts in the majors and 24 of 25 steals in Triple-A and majors combined. It will be no surprise to most that he had a top 25 sprint speed. He can steal bases and elevate his BABIP. A .320+ BABIP with a .280+ average and 25+ steals seems like a lock. That’s all he needs to do to have sleeper value. How’sever, it’s not where it ends. In 526 at-bats between Triple-A and the majors, he had 18 homers. Oh…*climbs to the top of Mt. Rushmore and hangs from George Washington’s nose*…kay. To grab two names who had lower expected slugging percentages than Edman: Paul DeJong and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Edman even hit one home run 421 feet. No, this isn’t his game, and Glad Vuerrero and JeDong might be misleading, but still. Edman only needs to get into 15 homers across 550 ABs to add to his solid average and speed. I rarely talk about runs and RBIs in these posts, because that’s just contingent on lineup placement and production around him, but Edman makes the most sense in one of the top two spots in the lineup. Doode’s a full-on yum! For 2020, I’ll give Tommy Edman projections 86/14/56/.284/27 in 568 ABs with a chance for more.
