Tom Murphy might be the first guy who can get a rookie outlook post, a sleeper post and an overrated post.  Allow me to explain.  Got it?  Sorry, after I said “Allow me to explain,” I muttered the reasons to myself and forgot to write them down.  As they say in Latin America, mea culpa.  Allow me to explain while writing.  He has under 130 ABs in the majors, so he qualifies for a rookie post.  Easy peasy on that.  A lot of people who play in leagues where their leaguemates only read Yahoo or ESPN are going to see huge sleeper value on Tom Murphy.  I bet he’s not drafted at all in some friends & family leagues or just drafted super late.  ESPN and Yahoo will drop the ball on Tom Murphy.  It’s guaranteed.  He’s not the kind of guy they highlight.  Could me saying this move the needle?  Maybe in Yahoo, but no way in ESPN.  Yahoo is a bit more seat-of-the-pantsy; I’m currently recalling Dee Gordon’s rookie year when he was ranked in the top 50 overall at Yahoo even though he didn’t have a starting job.  ESPN, on the other hand, they’re conservative to the point of boring.  Carlos Beltran will be ranked ahead of Murphy.  I will bet you major fake dollars on that.  Now, why is Tom Murphy also going to be overrated in some leagues?  Because Murphy’s the type of player that fantasy baseballers (<– my mom’s term!) love to hype up so much they become overrated by the time some drafts come around.  I.e., he’ll start around 220 overall in drafts, inch up to 175, then to 150, then to 125, finally, in some leagues people will be drafting him around 75-100 by the end of March.  This is obviously goofy, but there might be some value in him still at 150 overall, depending on how this next paragraph goes.  (What a segue!)  Anyway, what can we expect from Tom Murphy for 2017 fantasy baseball?

First off, playing time is everything.   Walt Worse is gone, which means Tony Wolters will either be the starter or Tom Murphy will be.  You thinking, “Wouldn’t that also be a possibility if Worse was still there?”  Yes, technically, but I’d put the chances of Wolters being the starter at 75% with Worse, while now I’d say we’re at about 60/40 with Murphy as the lead.  If the Rockies simply look at righty vs. lefty, Murphy is screwed, but Murphy had 4 HRs and hit .323 vs. righties last year in 31 ABs, and .321 in 212 ABs in Triple-A.  The power was there vs. righties too, with 13 HRs.  Yeah, I can’t for the life of me understand exactly why Worse would’ve ever sat Murphy vs. righties, but he wasn’t the Worse because he was the best.  Murphy has hit 8 HRs in 32 major league games.  This might confuse you if you know he hit five homers in only 21 games this year.  That’s right, he hit three homers in only 11 games in 2015, and he still was sent to Triple-A where he hit 19 in 80 games.  I’m not exactly sure why the Rockies have been yanking his chain.  Worse is one answer, but I get the sense the Rockies are just an oddly run franchise.  My thoughts on this date all the way back to Todd Helton being their first baseman about seven years longer than he should’ve been.  Anyway, that’s a lot of time spent on whether or not he’ll play, and that’s my biggest concern for him, his playing time.  Second biggest concern is his strikeouts.  This is slightly less of a problem in Coors.  If Mario Mendoza would’ve been a Rockie, the Mendoza Line would’ve been .250.  You can’t hit under .230 on the Rockies.  I don’t mean the Royal You.  I mean, you.  Literally the person reading this.  You would hit .250 in Coors.  Jeromy Burnitz hit .215 on the Mets in 2002, .239 the next year, then hit .283 in Colorado, then .258 in Chicago, .230 in Pittsburgh and out of baseball.  This is standard for all Rockies players.  Six years ago, Clint Barmes was the last Rockies regular that hit sub-.240.  That’s Barmes who was a 2-homer guy in any other stadium, but hit 23 homers in Coors one year.  So, Murphy could strikeout 30% of the time in Colorado, but I can’t project him to hit lower than .240.  Since playing time is such a guessing game here, I’m going to project Murphy for 43/17/61/.251/1 in 375 ABs, but there’s upside and downside from there.  Could see anywhere from 10 HRs to 30+ HRs for Murphy.

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Nick
Nick
5 years ago

Hi Grey,

dynasty team, before 2017 season
1) would you pick up Murphy for Wilson Contreras ?
2) would you choose Rajai over Enciarte or H.Perez ?
3) is Shae Simmons ATL RP worth investing in , i’d drop a ‘holds’ RP: Boone Logan

Nick

Dr. Kenneth Noisewater
Dr. Kenneth Noisewater
5 years ago

You watch Hamilton’s Pharmacopeia on Viceland? Either way, smoking Mandrax out of a broken bottleneck is insane.

Super Prospect Rio Ruiz or SPRR for short
Super Prospect Rio Ruiz or SPRR for short
Reply to  Dr. Kenneth Noisewater
5 years ago

@Dr. Kenneth Noisewater: my daughters two favorite sitcoms are the Goldbergs (80’s) and fresh off the boat(90’s). This last week on fresh off the boast they did an episode about who killed Tupac. She asks me “who’s Tupac?” And I grin at her and say not yet darling. When you’re older you will know Tupac.

nick the dick
nick the dick

@Super Prospect Rio Ruiz or SPRR for short: My son will be 6 in a few weeks and we listened to Tupac today. Get ya game up daddio.

Scott Kimmel
Scott Kimmel
5 years ago

Grey,

He said to me if I want renfroe and Judge, I would have to give up Allard, Zimmer and either Votto or Cargo (COL)

Scott Kimmel
Scott Kimmel
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

what about the Allard and Zimmer for Renfroe? Is that too much?

Scott Kimmel
Scott Kimmel
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

what do you know about this prospect Michael Kopech? would Allard and Zimmer be worth Kopech and Renfroe?

Big Odio
Big Odio
5 years ago

Here is my breakdown of the world series and playoffs as a whole.

1) Tito manages under pressure the way the unbreakable kimmel scott manages his trades.
2) Joe Maddon is really bad at his job, which poses the question, how man managers are actually good at their jobs in baseball? I can think of 2 maybe 3.
3) Joe Buck ruins everything
4) That rain delay was fucking stupid, play on or start the game early when you know its going to rain.
5) Im glad that for the first time in I have no idea how long we didnt have a fucking wildcard team in the world series. We also had the team with the best record win it all which is oddly refreshing. Good to see that 162 meant something.
6) The all-star game winner getting home field advantage is really dumb and this year of any it should of been played at home for the dominant team.
7) I will always wonder how differently amazing the playoffs could of been if so many aces/near aces would of been healthy for the playoffs. Harvey, deGrom, Salazar, Carazzco, Strasburg are all great pitchers and would of loved to see them perform on the grand stage.
8) the 2nd wild card has got to go. It delays the playoffs starting and only makes idiots get Encarnacion tattoos with out a parrot. That makes no sense.
9) so now that we dont have to listen to the whiny cubs fans anymore who is the next up to win it all that never has….Padres? Mariners? Rays? Rockies?
10) Thank god this shit show is over and we can move back to real life (fantasy baseball) and shed this stank of “real baseball” off our skins and play our very real pretend game where there are no chicks and lots of tums.

Scott Kimmel
Scott Kimmel
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

i am confused on the first comment by Odio. Is he saying I can’t make trades?

Big Odio
Big Odio
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey:

1) Tito buckled under the pressure
2) what did he do special? over throw Chapman and almost lost? That was some fine Weissian work by Joe Blows
5) the wild card and second wild card negate the winning of the division.
6) your purist ass likes the winner of the all star game getting home foield advantage?
7) also would of loved to see Cubs vs Mets part 2 and seeing the Nats with Stras would of probably led to different outcome with doyers
9) really though, who are now the loveable losers of baseball?
10) oh bullshit, you love the fantasy game, if you really felt that way you would spend more time talking about real baseball

Super Prospect Rio Ruiz or SPRR for short
Super Prospect Rio Ruiz or SPRR for short
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: tito over used that pen or at least he three arms he used over and over. AND I don’t care about in season with maddon. Playoffs is different animal and he looked lost. That lineup change took long enough. They almost blew it again giants and doyers. they won despite him. Their talent led them.

Blah blah blah about injuries a part of the game. Name the last time so many elite arms from playoff teams were not on the postseason roster. Very unique this year. Would of love to see mets vs cuBS part 2.

And why worry about honkey sanchez. I had him this whole time

Super Prospect Rio Ruiz or SPRR for short
Super Prospect Rio Ruiz or SPRR for short
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: he overused guys all series. Stay with me here. Kluber was more than decent. Tomlin did okay and Bauer is just an embarrassing franchise player. That drone shit was hilarious

Super Prospect Rio Ruiz or SPRR for short
Super Prospect Rio Ruiz or SPRR for short
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: not sure. Use the shit of your three arms and hope for the best? I mean seriously it’s the fucking AL. NOT rocket science

Super Prospect Rio Ruiz or SPRR for short
Super Prospect Rio Ruiz or SPRR for short
5 years ago

Ruiz is my jammy jam

Geoff
Ralph Lifshitz
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: Find Keith’s email and hire him for the prospector job. Keith knows what is shallow leaguers don’t

Big Odio
Big Odio
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: and I will be super awesome for starting the R&R fan club. I have to use the & symbol because he’s so awesome I need a break in between the first and last name

Scott Kimmel
Scott Kimmel
5 years ago

Grey,

Thoughts on this trade offer:
I give: Allard, Zimmer anad Quintana
I get: Renfroe and Taijuan Walker? Is it fair and would you make that offer

Scott Kimmel
Scott Kimmel
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: what about allard and zimmer for Renfroe?

Geoff
Ralph Lifshitz
Reply to  Scott Kimmel
5 years ago

@Scott Kimmel: No way, that’s a bad deal for you. Unless it’s Kyle Zimmer, but I assume it’s Bradley.

Scott Kimmel
Scott Kimmel
Reply to  Ralph Lifshitz
5 years ago

should I offer only Allard for Renfroe?

Geoff
Ralph Lifshitz
Reply to  Scott Kimmel
5 years ago

@Scott Kimmel: Yeah, that’s fine. I like Zimmer more than Renfroe. He’s a Padres power hitter, who was sort of an underperformed before this year. His approach leaves something to be desired. It wouldn’t shock me if he flamed out big time.

Scott Kimmel
Scott Kimmel
Reply to  Ralph Lifshitz
5 years ago

Ralph and Grey,

What do you think of this offer:

I give: Allard, Zimmer and Starling
I get: Renfroe and Judge

Scott Kimmel
Scott Kimmel
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

Bubba but he said no to that.

Scott Kimmel
Scott Kimmel
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

Grey,

In order for me to get Renfror and Judge he wants along with Allard and Zimmer, he wants a young player. WOuld you move Snell or Quintana to make it happen or just do Zimmer and Allard for Renfroe?

Scott Kimmel
Scott Kimmel
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

the reaason I want him is because I think he is going to be very good:

Geoff
Ralph Lifshitz
Reply to  Scott Kimmel
5 years ago

@Scott Kimmel: I hope it’s Bubba lol

Big Odio
Big Odio
Reply to  Scott Kimmel
5 years ago

@Scott Kimmel: what you need to do is trade for Rio Ruiz

Scott Kimmel
Scott Kimmel
Reply to  Big Odio
5 years ago

who is that?

Geoff
Ralph Lifshitz
Reply to  Scott Kimmel
5 years ago

@Scott Kimmel:”Super-Prospect”

Gigorilla
Gigorilla
5 years ago

WOW – what a game last night. I do business with a firm in Cleveland, and many called in sick today. Sad for them, good for Chi. fans.

Talking to a Cubbie fan earlier today, and there seems to be something about Maddon. He described Maddon as being quirky lucky with some of his moves–I kinda agree. You can be quirky lucky with the talent on the Cubs.

So fun season 2016. Will continue to watch Razzball all off season for the great info and insights. Thanks.

Joe
Joe
5 years ago

Should I kept Stanton next year?

Big Odio
Big Odio
5 years ago

The theme of the playoffs should be R.R.E.A.M…..revenues rule everything around me

Geoff
Ralph Lifshitz
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: Would you like more salt with your whine?

Big Odio
Big Odio
Reply to  Ralph Lifshitz
5 years ago

@Ralph Lifshitz: oh shit ralph. You let them fuck you in the ass and then ask for more. You really are the east coast tehol.

Geoff
Ralph Lifshitz
Reply to  Big Odio
5 years ago

@Big Odio: This was a 2 and you made it a 10. It must suck to just hate everything. Magoo not putting out?

Big Odio
Big Odio
Reply to  Ralph Lifshitz
5 years ago

@Ralph Lifshitz: 10? when it come to mlb I’m always at 11…always

And no magoo needs his space. He hates on me for being friends with you

Geoff
Ralph Lifshitz
Reply to  Big Odio
5 years ago

@Big Odio: Fantasy baseball fascism! Coming to a blog near you!

Sorry for ruining Razzball Old Tymers!

Big Odio
Big Odio
Reply to  Ralph Lifshitz
5 years ago

@Ralph Lifshitz: you are living in baseball fascism. You support the nazi league of baseball or NLB. I want full blown freedom and liberty brought back. Things done for the good of the game and not the wallet of a select few

Big Odio
Big Odio
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: it was a commentary on the television impact of the playoffs

Big Odio
Big Odio
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: those day games and not adjusting to series. Like really the Nats dodger gametime was pending the outcome of the cubs giants series. Nithing likr an all fay game series. They couldn’t move a game up when they known it’s going to rain? It’s so lame. FFS I hate real baseball 90% of the time.

Big Odio
Big Odio
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: yeah like really? Play through it or start the game early. Its not like on the west coast we are home by 5. We are lucky to get home by 6.

I’ve seen a weird phenomenon too. All the people I know or see at the bars that always rock Yankee hats are now wearing cubs hats. Oddly all the people that wear the red sox hats did not trade them in for cubs.

Big Odio
Big Odio
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: saw it with the sox and with the giants which is weird because I never, NEVER saw Giants hats when I was a kid.

Big Odio
Big Odio
Reply to  Big Odio
5 years ago

Its kinda insane, I saw it in the 80’s and early 90’s when the 49ers were a thing. When they went to the super bowl a few years ago it came back. Most people go Giants….Cali….its cool. No its not, I remember kids getting hats taken away, bullyed and on a few occasions beat up for trying to wear Giants gear…oh the good old days

Big Odio
Big Odio
Reply to  Big Odio
5 years ago

yeah, like that time or the time the Giants fan killed the Dodger fan in the streets of san fran

Geoff
Ralph Lifshitz
Reply to  Big Odio
5 years ago

@Big Odio: So many admitted fans of other teams are playing Cubs fan though. I hate that. It’s like when people tell me “I’m a such and such fan but I rooted for Boston in 2004.” I always look at them like do you want me to thank you?

Geoff
Ralph Lifshitz
Reply to  Big Odio
5 years ago

@Big Odio: It’s 2016, that’s the world we live in. I do have to say A-Rod was a welcomed surprise though.

Big Odio
Big Odio
Reply to  Ralph Lifshitz
5 years ago

@Ralph Lifshitz: doesn’t mean I have to embrace it. A-Rod was great. I hope he stays retired and in the booh. Get shmuckie oit of there

Ante GALIC
Ante GALIC
5 years ago

Grey!!!

Loved the write-up as much as I love Murphy!

a. What’s up? How much do I love Razzball? I got dressed (enjoy being pantless in my hotel room with the ‘DO NOT DISTURB SIGN ON THE OUTSIDE OF THE DOOR’ as much as the next guy) to come to the lobby to endure the incessant African muzak which repeats every 20 minutes!!! The good thing about that is that you know that 20 minutes have passed, the bad thing is…draw your own conclusion!

b. Sad the Tribe went out, well done for the Cubs win for Cubs fans all around. No major investments either so not a big deal all around.

c. Otherwise going back to Farchana, USA tomorrow. Wish me luck, will drop you a line tomorrow or Monday if there’s nothing planned for tomorrow.

d. I’m starting to hate this place, although I reached a new download speed in my hotel room yesterday night – 607 kb/second!! I challenge anyone outside of African powerhouses like Ghana to beat that record! And I will also congratulate whoever beats it in Africa outside of Ghana. In Ghana I reached 3 mb/second, but that’s for another story.

Cheers,
Ante

Big Odio
Big Odio
5 years ago

Did I really need a phone alert telling me the Phillies didn’t pick up Ryan Howards option? I think them actually picking it up would of been news worthy

Big Odio
Big Odio
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: Phillie fan “I didn’t even know my phone had a jizz tone”

Wake Up
5 years ago

Just like I’ve always told you, build your offense around your catchers…and always carry 3 catchers…and always always bump dicks!

SwaggerJackers
SwaggerJackers
Reply to  Wake Up
5 years ago

@Wake Up: I had no idea dick bumping was a thing until Ross did that to everyone on his team last night.

Fred Garvin MP
Fred Garvin MP
5 years ago

I’ll admit it: I cried when the Cubs won. Best sports moment of my life!

Natty Boh
Natty Boh
5 years ago

Patiently waiting for January Grey.

Mrs. Featherbottom
Mrs. Featherbottom
5 years ago

Nice!

Big Odio
Big Odio
5 years ago

I think I read this too early. For the first paragraph I thought you were talking about Peter O’Brien. You seen one bloody mick you’ve seen them all. Fuckin’ Paddy’s.

Joe Bob says
Joe Bob says
5 years ago

Happy off season Grey,

I have Wolters for a buck in NL keep up to 15…thinking of pairing the two (Murph/Wolters) if I can win Murphy in auction; Wolters even worth holding going in to auction?

Joe bob says
Joe bob says
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

There’s options: Susac posey Grandal, but I have Schwarber in the wings if he gets 5 games in-season. I could spend the money elsewhere…

Joe bob says
Joe bob says
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: yes for sure but thought I’d save my big spending for available stars at other positions like Goldy, Harper Stanton and a few others who will be up for auction..ie don’t spend too much on catchers–go w Murphy as my number 1, Cheap wolters as second. It’s early; and I didn’t give you much other info. I kinda need a really good 1b.

Joe bob says
Joe bob says
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: yeah, I could buy them. Would be in 20’s at auction. Posey in 30’s prob. Now seem like a better idea to keep cheap Wolters and get Murphy–maybe 10ish at auction? Though hype train could move him higher.

Thanks!

Fish
Fish
5 years ago

Someone’s gotta say something:

CUBS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
5 years ago

Can’t wait to draft him in my 3 leagues of Yahoo/ESPN/CBS readers. Always nice when a throw away position offers such upside at hopefully low cost.

Speaking of low cost, if the Indians won the WS, I wonder if King SAGNOF’a draft price would have jumped up after that 2-run HR and RBI single.