The only way to compare things is to look in the past and see how we match up to the year previous. For pace reasons, for setting your mind at ease, and to basically not bore you to death, I am only going back one year because I have gone over the decline of the ever loved “stolen base” as a cumulative stat. So in 2017 through the first 81 games of the season, (roughly… because every team plays different amounts of games) there were a combine 1,405 steals by all MLB teams. In 2018, we currently sit at 1,310. Now remember games for AL teams are off a bit, but still, we are sitting at 95 stolen bases fewer than the year previous. That is an eye catching number, even when you break it into a smaller number like percentages it still sucks for the SAGNOF love. Just to delve into it further, there were three players with 30-plus steals and three above 20 steals at the All Star break last year. (With the leader, Billy Hamilton garnering 38.) This year, there are only six players above 20, and none above current theft leader Michael Taylor with 23. The downward trend, the going away from using the steal as an asset in fantasy is a dying trend that we are lucky to be apart of from a draft usability standpoint. I am more of a “see what I know baseball guy” rather than a number cruncher, but nobody uses the steal effectively to set the pace of a game anymore. Now for fantasy it sucks that we are mimicking real life, as a grab the best players to accumulate stats to fill our rosters mentality is the M.O., but I would be interested to see how your league standings are reflecting this downward trend in steals and how much the league leader in the category has, and if you think it is worth chasing as a catch up stat for the second half of the year. So give me some feedback, and here’s some charts of catchers to steal on and pitchers to exploit. Cheers!
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Danny Barnes
Last week we touched on the Mariners and the propensity for steals in a post-suspension world. Since then, the navigators of the sea have acquired Denard and Colome, making more SAGNOF situations. The scorching hot filterless hitter I wanna concentrate your gaze on this week is from the same team with ample speed to be used. That hitter is Ben Gamel. The addition of Span to the outfield mix is a bit of a head scratcher fantasy-wise, because someone has to sit and three outfielders have to play. Gamel over the last 7 games is going streaking across the quad and down the street to On Base Percentage-ville. His batting average alone is a nice coup for a short term pick-up. Hitting .381 and an OBP of .458 is a nice end of the OF problem to have. He is getting his fair share of AB’s and is putting his on base skills to good work too, stealing 3 bases in the past week. That may seem like small potatoes, but in the world of steals that is a lot by its own standards. So if you are surfing the waiver wire looking for outfielders with small potatoes to offer, take a long hard look at the Marines outfielder. On to better and pressing news in SAGNOF-dom, we got charts and snippets of joy for this Memorial Day. Cheers!
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SAGNOF Report: Like Taking Second Base From A Baby
May 7, 2018 | Uncategorized | 8 Commentsby: Smokey
SAGNOF info is the best way to get a leg up on the SAGNOF trade. (I challenged myself to use that anagram twice in the same sentence.) Challenge accomplished, and in the first line too! Wish I had longer arms than those baby T-Rex arms because the pats on the back wouldn’t stop. As I continue the back lauding, the week upcoming is a bear market in steals. The year is mimicking the previous year’s steals downward trend, as it is down almost 8% of the pace from last years total to date. So if you have a valuable piece of steals bait that isn’t doing so great, let’s say his name is “Billy Hamilton” and you are having trouble getting ample trade value for him… read this post so it can be explained that despite his sub-200 average and lower than expected 5 steals to date, he still has stolen base value. Yes, you are going to have to trade for 75 cents on the dollar, but explain this to someone looking for steals and are down on Billy that he is still top-20 in steals and with that 5 steals total, he would be at 20% of most teams total steals on the year in fantasy. That number obviously changes by league type and such, and I took an average of all the leagues I myself compete in (median is 31). So while I sit here and let you either figure out how to sell high or buy low on Billy Hamilton, continue the read and learn about the steals that will come, have happened, and the week’s thievery to be. Cheers!
Please, blog, may I have some more? Bullpen Report, Week 4: Bear Riders And Stecken Cloughs
April 27, 2018 | Closers, Middle Relievers | 16 Commentsby: Smokey
The Miami Jeters are currently cruising on a sub-60 win pace. Nice if you look at the investment value in terms of dollars and the amount of talent on the field. Now the once or semi-reliable closer, Brad Ziegler, has puked up another save chance and seen his ERA climb a blood alcohol level of 8.44. That is a Cherynoblian level that usually results in a quick change, minus Bill Murray dressed as a clown. In the wings are two decent enough options that in most leagues should be owned for their K prowess. They being Drew Steckenrider and Kyle Barraclough. A change is coming, as the soft-tossing Ziegler can’t rely on sorcery and garbage to will him through save chances, no matter how few and far between they are. The Marlins, from a standpoint of we are only winning X amount of games, and can’t afford to lose Y because of a closer who can’t shut the door is just bad for business. I am grabbing Steckenrider before Barraclough just based on games and position of appearances of date. It is really tough to say though because they have 7 wins, and neither guy has featured more than 4 appearances when the team has been leading. But Steck has seen more 8th innings, and I like him better because he has a closer makeup. So add accordingly if save speculating is your bag, but with success in closing comes success in the setup game. And don’t ignore Barraclough either, because he will be in elevated positions as well and since this is the Holds portion of the week, go get him if free.
Please, blog, may I have some more? Bullpen Report: Applying The Sleeper Hold
March 18, 2017 | Middle Relievers | 11 Commentsby: Smokey
Welcome to the fantasy wrestling league. (If that is why you are not in the right place.) If you came for some fantasy baseball holds league info, then please, by all means, get comfy for a spell. We as a people who play in holds leagues all know the big name guys. The proven commodities. The reason we know about them is because I have talked about them in my Holds Ranking Post. Go check it out, there’s fun for the whole family in there, with coloring sections and a pop-up section for the Misses. So bigger leagues that rely on deep knowledge into hold-dom require some names that in special situations would garner interest. This is why we are here… I am going to break down some names in each league (for your league-specific needs) so you can win the deep end of the draft. None or almost all of these guys aren’t going to be in the handy dandy chart I provide below, because they are off the beaten path a a bit. So enjoy some depth to the bullpen discussion…
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Please, blog, may I have some more? Bullpen Report: Hold On For One More Day
February 8, 2017 | Closers, Middle Relievers, SAGNOF | 43 Commentsby: Smokey
Some day somebody’s gonna make you want to turn around and say goodbye. Until then baby, are you going to let them hold you down and make you cry? Don’t you know? Don’t you know things can change, things’ll go your way, if you hold on for one more day.
That music of genius was brought on by a smooth impromptu karaoke session in a West Boston saloon. It was me and Ralph and a girl who was paid by the dollar to talk to us about her kid. It’s all a true story. Fun times were had, and at the time I didn’t realize how correlative the song was back then to this particular stat category and one that is by far my favorite to talk about. Funny, it only took a Wilson Phillips song on the drive home from work to reminisce about Boston, Ralph, and relief pitching. I love the stat, not everyone uses it, but I still love it nonetheless. If your leagues uses it, cool, well I will be your every other week destination for giving you the low-down on the hold situations going across the MLB. So get comfy, with a week to go until Spring Training starts, and the full extent of the 2017 season yet to play. You will get sick of me, in say… 30 weeks. So get comfy on your favorite porcelain fantasy reading chair and welcome to a brand new year!
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