Statcast Player Of The Week: Matt Chapman’s Giant-Sized Gains

For much of the 2026 season, Matt Chapman looked like a fantasy baseball player in serious decline. The San Francisco Giants’ third baseman entered June carrying some of the worst offensive numbers of his career, posting a wOBA and xwOBA well below his established baseline (his wOBA was .241 in May, just below Brice Matthews). His power had vanished, his barrel rate had cratered, and fantasy managers who drafted him as a reliable source of home runs and RBI were about ready to throw him into McCovey Cove. At one point, Chapman owned just a single home run despite more than 200 plate appearances, an astonishing total for a hitter who has built his career on elite power production.

But over the last 100 plate appearances, the story has changed dramatically. Chapman owns the second-largest increase in expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) in baseball during that stretch, improving from a dreadful .217 mark to .341, according to Statcast. That jump isn’t driven by luck. xwOBA is built on Statcast measurements such as exit velocity, launch angle, strikeouts, and walks, making it one of the best indicators of a hitter’s offensive ability. When a player’s xwOBA rises by more than 120 points, it usually means something significant has changed beneath the surface.

Matt Chapman hit two home runs on Wednesday night to bring his total up to six on the year. Is this the new Chapman, or is this hot streak destined to end?

Chapman is Elevating the Baseball Again

The biggest reason behind Chapman’s early-season struggles was a complete fall-on-his-face collapse in his batted-ball profile. Earlier in the year, his launch angle was awful, and his ground-ball rate ballooned. Instead of producing the towering fly balls that fueled his 200-plus career home runs, Chapman was hitting groundballs. Reports from earlier this season showed his average launch angle had fallen from over 15 degrees last year to 10 degrees this season. Plus, he had a ground-ball rate that climbed above 50 percent.

Recently, however, Chapman has begun driving the ball in the air with much greater consistency (Wednesday afternoon was a good example). While his season-long Statcast numbers still look ugly because of the terrible first two months, his rolling xwOBA surge suggests that the quality of contact has improved substantially. More of his hard contact is being paired with productive launch angles, which is exactly what fantasy managers want to see. Exit velocity alone doesn’t generate fantasy value. Exit velocity combined with ideal launch angles creates barrels, home runs, and extra-base hits. Chapman appears to be rediscovering that formula.

This development is particularly important because his early-season issues never stemmed from an inability to hit the ball hard. Instead, he was simply hitting too many hard grounders. As Statcast data has consistently shown, the combination of hard contact and proper launch angle is what separates productive power hitters from players who merely possess raw strength.

The Hard-Hit Quality Trending Up

One reason Chapman has still remained an intriguing fantasy buy-low candidate throughout his slump is his long history of elite contact quality. Even during down years, he has routinely ranked among baseball’s better hitters in hard-hit rate and exit velocity. Prior to 2026, Chapman spent much of his career near the top of Statcast leaderboards for hard-hit percentage.

His season-long Statcast profile still reflects the damage caused by his awful start, showing a hard-hit rate at 35% and a career-low barrel rate (5.3%). However, the massive jump in xwOBA over the last 100 plate appearances strongly suggests those numbers are improving rapidly. A hitter simply doesn’t increase his expected production by more than 120 points without significantly upgrading the quality of contact he is generating.

Fantasy managers should pay close attention to this distinction. Traditional statistics often lag behind underlying performance indicators, and Chapmans are certain to change. A player can improve his process weeks before the results happen. That’s exactly what appears to be happening with Chapman. His expected metrics are rising because he is hitting the ball harder, squaring it up more frequently, and producing better launch conditions.

When veteran power hitters begin rediscovering their barrel-producing swing path, fantasy production often follows quickly. Chapman may not return to his peak 35-home-run form, but the recent Statcast indicators suggest there is considerably more power remaining in the tank than his season totals indicate.

Improved Swing Decisions Driving Better Contact

Another encouraging sign is that Chapman’s resurgence doesn’t appear to be fueled solely by batted-ball luck. One of the good things about xwOBA is that it incorporates strikeouts and walks in addition to contact quality. That means a substantial increase in xwOBA generally means improvement across multiple offensive categories rather than a simple hot streak.

Throughout his career, Chapman has succeeded by combining power with a disciplined approach. Even when his batting average fluctuated, he consistently posted strong walk rates and respectable on-base percentages. Earlier this season, pitchers were exploiting him with fastballs because he wasn’t doing damage when he put them in play. Unfortunately,  his production against velocity had collapsed, leading to weak contact and a lack of extra-base power.

The recent improvement suggests he is making better swing decisions and getting back to attacking pitches he can drive. Better swing decisions often lead to better contact quality because hitters are no longer expanding the zone or swinging at pitches they cannot elevate. When Chapman is selective, he remains capable of generating above-average exit velocities and impactful contact.

For fantasy purposes, that matters because plate-discipline improvements tend to be more sustainable than short-term batting-average spikes. A hitter who is consistently finding better pitches to attack has a much greater chance of maintaining his gains over the remainder of the season.