Happiest of Wednesdays, Razzball Nation! Tonight marks the midpoint of our week, but also the midpoint in our MLB season as most teams either play their 82nd game or are pretty close to it today. Long gone are the small sample sizes or ‘slow starters’. With each passing week, we can dig into more reliable data and look for some evidence to support those hot (or cold) streaks.
Speaking of streaking…
Whoa! Maybe not that kind of streaking.
Instead, let’s have a peek at Samad Taylor and a streak that should, at the very least, qualify him as a SAGNOF play for those of you in need.
Samad Taylor was drafted by Cleveland in the 10th round of the 2016 draft. After 32 games of rookie ball, Taylor was included in the Joe Smith deal and found himself headed north to Toronto.
Cool story. So how did he get to Kansas City? Well, the Jays held Samad in pretty high regard, but when they had the opportunity to make a move for a veteran 2B/OF with speed and experience they ultimately included a similarly skilled player in Taylor (and Max Castillo) to the Royals for Whit Merrifield.
When the Royals called Taylor up this year, he was adding to a pretty impressive streak of SB seasons in the minor leagues.
| Season | Team | Level | PA | SB | CS | OBP | BB% | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | TOR | A | 530 | 44 | 16 | .321 | 10.8% | 18.7% |
| 2019 | TOR | A+ | 384 | 26 | 10 | .325 | 12.8% | 27.9% |
| 2021 | TOR | AA | 374 | 30 | 8 | .385 | 11.2% | 29.4% |
| 2022 | TOR | AAA | 280 | 23 | 5 | .337 | 10.0% | 22.1% |
| 2023 | KCR | AAA | 291 | 34 | 6 | .409 | 14.1% | 19.6% |
| 2023 | KCR | MLB | 28 | 1 | 0 | .296 | 14.3% | 28.6% |
In the last 5 minor league seasons (including this year), Samad Taylor has certainly flashed that 60-grade speed. With five seasons of 20+ steals, it’s pretty obvious that our guy here is pretty much SAGNOF personified.
But wait, there are some other encouraging signs here in our table that point to some potential sustainable success at the MLB level.
The BB% comes in at above average (10%+) in every stop along the minor league path.
The K%? That one started out pretty rocky in the A+/AA years, but has been trending towards the MLB average (20%) over the past two seasons.
I’m not saying to throw a bucket of FAAB at the KC 2B/OF this week, but putting a dollar or three on Samad Taylor might be a good idea if you’re looking for some steals support.
The buzz is that Taylor is holding down the 2B job until Michael Massey is back from his finger injury. But stranger things have happened than having a 24 year old, multi-eligible, top 20 (KC) prospect claim a starting job over a couple of less-than-impressive or underperforming teammates (Massey and Nicky Lopez).
I’d bet even money that the KC rookie gets a good chance to prove he belongs in the MLB lineup, despite him having minor league options available. Could he steal 20-some-odd bases the rest of the way if he can figure out how to lock down that 2B job or carve out a role as an everyday UT? With that kind of potential, it wouldn’t surprise me.
Speaking of guys with steals potential, how about those league leaders?
| NAME | TEAM | STOLEN BASES | CAUGHT STEALING | ON-BASE PERCENTAGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esteury Ruiz | Athletics | 39 | 7 | .315 |
| Ronald Acuna Jr. | Braves | 35 | 6 | .403 |
| Wander Franco | Rays | 25 | 7 | .350 |
| Corbin Carroll | Diamondbacks | 23 | 2 | .369 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | Royals | 23 | 6 | .290 |
| Starling Marte | Mets | 21 | 3 | .312 |
| Jorge Mateo | Orioles | 21 | 3 | .270 |
| Ji-Hwan Bae | Pirates | 20 | 6 | .304 |
| Josh Lowe | Rays | 18 | 2 | .328 |
| Whit Merrifield | Blue Jays | 18 | 5 | .350 |
- Corbin Carroll was our big jump today. He stole 4 bases in the past week to vault him into our top 4.
- No new wheels from our Bae today. The only thing Ji-Hwan did over the last week was lose 20 points in OBP (and go hitless in 7 games).
- Technically, Julio Rodriguez is tied for our bottom spot here with 18/5 and a .309 OBP.
How does this affect the team totals?
| TEAM | GAMES PLAYED | STOLEN BASES | CAUGHT STEALING | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rays | 81 | 99 | 26 | – |
| Reds | 79 | 87 | 22 | – |
| Diamondbacks | 79 | 79 | 12 | +2 |
| Athletics | 80 | 78 | 17 | -1 |
| Pirates | 77 | 77 | 25 | -1 |
| Padres | 78 | 66 | 15 | – |
| Royals | 78 | 63 | 16 | NR |
| Brewers | 78 | 62 | 15 | -1 |
| Braves | 78 | 61 | 11 | NR |
| Orioles | 77 | 60 | 14 | -1 |
| Blue Jays | 79 | 60 | 19 | -3 |
A quick check in on some of the teams from our chart…
Tampa Bay Rays
- Here’s our first team to reach the precipice of 100 steals (as of edit yesterday). I’m assuming they got to the century mark last night in Arizona.
- Wander Franco continues to lead the charge for the Rays (25 SB), but Josh Lowe and Taylor Walls are no slouches either (18 and 16, respectively)
- We could have four more Rays reach double digits by next week. Randy Arozarena sits at 9, Luke Raley has 8, and the OF duo of Manuel Margot / Jose Siri have 7 apiece.
Kansas City Royals
- Our first of two teams that are new to the list. KC is leaning on Bobby Witt Jr. (23 SB) and Maikel Garcia (11 SB) for more than half of their 63 total steals.
- Edward Olivares (8) and MJ Melendez (4!) are next on Kansas City’s team leaderboard.
- With names like Dairon Blanco and Samad Taylor, the Royals are equipped to run. If these two continue to get playing time and can flex their top speed skill, Kansas City could move up this list quickly.
Some names not on the list from the last 7 days
- This one is more of a merge from both lists here. Guys that produced the last 7 days that don’t appear on the leaderboard individually or in the top teams.
- TJ Friedl and Maikel Garcia tied atop the SB leaderboard over the last week with 4 SB each (with Acuna and Carroll).
- Ozzie Albies, Jarren Duran, Julio Rodriguez, and Trea Turner (remember that guy?!) had 3 steals each last week.
And, finally, the teams you’ll want to stream against for the next 7 days. This is the ‘cream of the crap’, so to speak.
Should we be worried about these catchers?
| TEAM | OPP. SB% | NEXT 7 GAMES | PRIMARY CATCHER | CS% (CS/ATTEMPTS) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlins | 90.1 | @BOS/@ATL/STL | Nick Fortes | .091 (4/44) |
| Dodgers | 88.8 | @COL/@KC/PIT | Austin Barnes | .102 (4/49) |
| Pirates | 87.3 | SD/MIL/@LAD | Austin Hedges | .154 (6/39) |
| Mets | 85.5 | MIL/SF | Francisco Alvarez | .121 (7/58) |
| Rays | 85.5 | @ARI/@SEA | Francisco Mejia | .094 (3/32) |
- Compared to last week, the top 3 in our list stayed the same while the Mets moved up (down?) to 4th.
- The Rays replace the Angels here, thanks to a less-than-stellar .094 CS% from Francisco Mejia.
- Both Dudgers (probably a fitting mistype to leave) check in with an identical 4/49 CS rate. Will Smith and Austin Barnes registered a not-so-good .102 CS%.
- That Dodgers/Pirates series could be SAGNOF dream. Play those steals guys with confidence early next week, and expect some July 4th stolen base fireworks against some less-than-imposing backstops!
We’ll finish with the profile of the week. In these, I’ll reference the Hittertron SB$ value here just so you can see what kind of roto-dollars the guy is projected to earn over the next 7 days.
Just a reminder that you can have full access to all of this, along with Streamonator and Relievonator (and more) with our 2023 Razzball Fantasy Baseball Subscriptions.
David Hamilton – BOS – SS : SB$ – $0.3 (Tied for 42nd SS)
We’re back in for a deeper dive on SAGNOF guys this week. I thought about doing a profile on Lane Thomas or Vidal Brujan, but landed on the Red Sox most recent call-up.
David Hamilton was a Milwaukee Brewers 8th round pick in the 2019 draft (after not signing with LAA as a 28th round pick in 2016).
How did he get to Beantown? Hamilton was a key piece in the Hunter Renfroe trade in July 2022. Those dynasty leaguers with astute inferring skills might have noticed that the Red Sox placed Hamilton on the 40-man roster ahead of the Rule 5 draft – something that at the very least showed how much Boston valued his potential and their desire to protect him from selection.
The main skill should be obvious to everyone by now. David Hamilton has 70-grade speed.
But does he have the minor league track record?
Uh…ya, he does. 70 stolen bases in 119 games last year at AA should more than prove that this guy can burn. But if you need more proof, you can check his other minor league numbers over the past couple of years.
| Season | Team | Level | PA | SB | CS | OBP | BB% | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | MIL | A+ | 309 | 41 | 6 | .351 | 11.3% | 18.8% |
| 2021 | MIL | AA | 150 | 11 | 3 | .322 | 10.0% | 21.3% |
| 2022 | BOS | AA | 531 | 70 | 8 | .338 | 10.5% | 22.4% |
| 2023 | BOS | AAA | 237 | 27 | 6 | .339 | 11.0% | 21.5% |
| 2023 | BOS | MLB | 10 | 2 | 0 | .200 | 10.0% | 30.0% |
Will David Hamilton have a long run this year at SS in Boston? Maybe not. But with Pablo Reyes landing on the IL this week (undisclosed) and Enmanuel Valdez injuring his thumb last week, it looks like Hamilton has a clear path to playing time in the immediate future.
Two steals in four games kind of emulates the small sample size piece that I wrote up earlier here, but I’d make a play in dynasty leagues or AL-only if you could use an SB boost.
That’s all, Razzfolks! If you have any ideas of players that you want a deeper look at, drop them in the comments. As always, if you have any questions or thoughts, you can always catch me here or @MarmosDad on Twitter. Good luck with your SAGNOF plays this week!
