The week of the trade deadline is one of the most active for SAGNOF (Saves Ain’t Got No Face). Occasionally a team in contention will upgrade their closer.  More often teams in the running for the playoffs will look to upgrade their bullpens by acquiring a closer from an out of contention team and moving him to an 8th inning role.  Time to discuss which closers and next in line players will be affected as the trade deadline closers in.  (Ahem) I mean closes in.  (Or do I? I like how either way it’s a pun.)  Because the trade deadline is July 31st this is one of two SAGNOF Specials to come which will do just that.

First off, the closers which could be on the move to fill an 8th inning role.  The closers that best fit this description are Tyler Clippard, Brad Ziegler (next in line Daniel Hudson), John Axford (LaTroy Hawkins) and Jim Johnson.  (LOL at anyone trying to acquire Ziegler, Axford or Johnson as a closer, amirite?)  Closers likely to keep their jobs if moved include Aroldis Chapman (J.J. Hoover), Francisco Rodriguez, and David Robertson (Jake Petricka).  I put the (somewhat) obvious next in line players in parentheses.  Unfortunately the situations in Oakland (the lefty Drew Pomeranz, Edward Mujica, Evan Scribner), Atlanta (David Aardsma, Arodys Vizcaino) and Milwaukee (lefty Will Smith, Jeremy Jeffress) are unclear to me.  Fans of these teams or others with knowledge should give their 2 cents in the Comments section.  Seriously.  It will make my job a lot easier in trying to have it all sorted out by next week’s SAGNOF Special post when the trade deadline will be truly imminent.  That also means it would be a good idea to take a look at the comments section a time or two after reading this because in addition to the readers comments and my replies, I will attempt to do a mid-week update (in the comments section) where clarity is needed.

As far as closers that could be replaced because of a trade, I’m sticking with Roberto Osuna as a likely candidate.  Not likely as in a 70% chance or anything like that, likely relative to the chance that any one contending team has in replacing their closer.  In other words the Blue Jays seem more likely than other teams to make a move that way.  Go figure that most contending teams are set at closer, with maybe the one exception being Houston, where Luke Gregerson closes.  The Astros, however, are more focused on acquiring another starting pitcher and because their overall bullpen strength is very good I see it as unlikely that they bring someone in to replace Gregerson.

Rafael Soriano is now playing for the big club leaving the Chicago Cubs bullpen a messier mess.  I suspect if he pitches well in 2-3 non-save situations he will become their closer.  Jason Motte is still the other player to own in the bullpen.  In other news, Shawn Tolleson had a rough week and they’ve been using Tanner Scheppers in the 8th.  I consider that a situation to monitor but not act on.

SAGNOF Saves recommendations:  Rafael Soriano, J.J. Hoover, Will Smith/Jeremy Jeffress, and Daniel Hudson.  It’s hard for me to recommend players from some of the situations which are unclear, like Oakland, where in one scenario Sean Doolittle could end up as the closer for most or all of September.  Next week’s trade deadline post promises to be one to read but you should also try to keep your eyes on the Comments section below.

 

Delino DeShields Jr. has been starting in most games and he’s been an excellent source of steals this year.  However, I’ll once again remind you that he was never expected to be this good.  Still, I think he has shown some good signs, like the 12.1% walk rate which bodes well for future stolen bases.  His OBP is .360 so he’s actually been worthy of the leadoff spot.  I think his value going forward is similar to Billy Burns‘ with the main difference being Burns is playing every day and he should be able to hit for a higher AVG.

Alex Rios is a player that might be better to own than DeShields or Burns, unless SBs are all you care about.  What I’m saying is while he might not deliver the SAGNOF goods, per se, he’ll probably deliver a more valuable 5×5 line.   It may not look like Jarrod Dyson‘s bump in playing time has gone as expected but it’s because the Kansas City Royals have faced left handed starters in 3 of their last 4 games.  Aaron Hicks has been hitting more than he did last year and like Rios he possesses some power.

SAGNOF Steals recommendations: Delino DeShields (where still available), Jarrod Dyson, Alex Rios, and Aaron Hicks.  DeShields, Dyson and Rios are not readily available but could easily become that way.

 

 

 
  1. slimbo says:
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    Think it’s worth holding onto motte in a 8 teamer with svs/hlds as 1 cat?

    • RotoLance

      RotoLance says:
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      @slimbo: It depends on who else is available and how badly you need Saves/Holds. He can supply Saves in the short term and either Saves or Holds long term but his ratios and Ks might not be as good as some other options.

      • Slimbo says:
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        @RotoLance:

        I have boxberger, Zeigler, Ramos, motte, Capps, Wade Davis and Tony Watson

        My plan was to drop motte or mcculers and stash Walden on the ir and pick someone up from this list

        Neil walker, burns, schoop
        Gonzalez, McHugh, Rodriguez
        Tolleson, Lowe

        • RotoLance

          RotoLance says:
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          @Slimbo: I like McCullers but perhaps not a league that shallow. Just depends on what you need, I guess, because those are some pretty good names. That’s quite a group of relievers you already have although Ziegler and Motte stand out to me as being behind the others. I know Ziegler’s been good so far but don’t expect him to keep it up and I wouldn’t be afraid of dropping/moving him if the right opportunity arises (maybe not for any of those guys though).

  2. Kluber Troopers says:
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    What about Giles? Still expecting Papelbon to be moved?

    • RotoLance

      RotoLance says:
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      @Kluber Troopers: I actually forgot about that. Although Giles has been 100% owned in most RCLs from the start so that makes it a somewhat forgettable situation in those type of leagues.

      He’s got as good as chance as any of those guys, maybe better, at being moved. I think that Papelbon goes under the category of guys that would remain closers if moved. And yes I think Giles is still the favorite for Phillies next in line closer.

      • Beware the Shit Rope says:
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        @RotoLance: anybody thinking there’s another guy is out of his mind.

  3. RotoLance

    RotoLance says:
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    “LOL at anyone trying to acquire Ziegler, Axford or Johnson as a closer, amirite?” I Should have said “any MLB team” instead of “anyone” for sake of clarity. Acquiring them for fantasy purposes not quite so bad.

  4. Tom says:
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    I’m behind in saves in my 10 day h2h match. I thought I’d get sneaky and pick up one of the 2nd chair RP’s available on either LAA or BOS since they have a doubleheader tonight. Do you like Joe Smith or Tazawa to pick up a save for tonight only?

    • Tom says:
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      @Tom: …OR I could pick up Hoover since Chapman went 44 pitches yesterday.

      • RotoLance

        RotoLance says:
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        @Tom: My other reply was before I saw your “Chapman went 44 pitches” comment. In light of that and because they have the doubleheader coming up I would probably go with Hoover if you can hold him through Wednesday. Plus there is always the (small) chance Chapman will be traded in the next few days.

    • RotoLance

      RotoLance says:
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      @Tom: I’d lean Joe Smith.

      And the Cubs and Reds play each other in a doubleheader Wednesday.

  5. Don says:
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    Desperate for saves. Current bullpen is Miller, Betances, C. Smith, Motte, Giles. Thinking of trading Puig to get Souza and Britton. Post-trade OF would be Harper, Pollock, and Souza. Do it?

    • RotoLance

      RotoLance says:
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      @Don: Puig could turn it on any day. Or not. Perhaps surprisingly, I don’t have a problem with the trade given you need Saves so badly. You might double check the Standings and project where you could end up in Savesto make sure that’s really the move you want. I don’t know what the history of your team has been but the group you have now actually seems decent for Saves.

      • Don says:
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        @RotoLance: cool, thanks…it’s H2H and I’m in 3rd, so I don’t have to catch up, just need an adequate amount each week. I think I’ll wait and see how the Motte situation plays out.

        • RotoLance

          RotoLance says:
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          @Don: Yeah H2H does change things so you are right. I think H2H slightly favors upside players (even if more risk) because the stats go away every week.

        • bigbear says:
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          @Don: yeah, wait on it. Paps will get traded soon too.

  6. Jack says:
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    Please rank the replacements for Papelbon, F Rod, Robertson, Ziegler & Chapman along with Soria and Clippard (2 closers I own and may want to swap out).

    • RotoLance

      RotoLance says:
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      @Jack: I think you still have to own Soria and Clippard above all the next in line players. It would be speculating too much to drop them for any of those right now. Maybe in a week we will no more and that’s perhaps what you are thinking of. So I would rank them Soria, Clippard, Ken Giles (Papelbon), J.J. Hoover (Chapman), Daniel Hudson (Ziegler), Jacob Petricka (Robertson), Will Smith (F Rodriguez), Jeremy Jeffress (F Rodriguez). I really like Will Smith but I’m not certain whether he or Jeffress would fill in for K-Rod.

      • Jack says:
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        @RotoLance: Actually, I meant to ask you to rank them assuming ALL the replacements become closers. I don’t think anyone in my league is going to pick any of the replacements up until a trade happens. So…knowing a rank BEFORE a trade happens will allow me to make a decision about whether keep or replace Soria, Clippard or whatever replacement I have picked up quickly.

        Let’s throw out the ATL and MIL RP’s since we don’t know which one would take the closer role. But let’s put in Tazawa. How would you change the following ranking:

        Giles
        Soria-Giles over Soria who has been very shakey lately?
        Tazawa-or should he be thrown out too because of competition from Ogando?
        Hoover
        Clippard – do you agree with dropping Clippard for Hoover if Chapman is traded?
        Hudson
        Petricka

        • RotoLance

          RotoLance says:
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          @Jack: Even though the Athletics haven’t provided many Saves chances for Clippard so far that could regress to a normal level and I would rank Clippard > Hoover if were they both closers. I would probably agree on Giles over Soria but it’s close. I like Tazawa near the top as well. Your rankings look good.

      • Beware the Shit Rope says:
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        @RotoLance: jeffress’ usage for last few weeks indicates it’d be him before the white fresh prince. WSOX i think is the least cut and dried, but more importantly K-Rob is least likely to move (along with chapman). both have very good contracts, K-Rob’s long term. They use Duke as if it would be him, even though he’s been much worst than Putnam and Petricka too.

  7. Unrelated to this post, but Trevor Rosenthal sure doesn’t look like he’s going to get to the end of the season (at least without a lot of help from Siegrist and/or Walden), does he?

    Also, I was stashing Ken Giles for a few days (got a win out of him), but then I saw Papelbon only has 15 saves. What do you project for Giles should Papelbon get traded? Like 8? You also gotta figure the Phils might lose more key pieces and barely even win any more games.

    • RotoLance

      RotoLance says:
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      @Hugman: Those are good points. I’ve written about Rosenthal before, I first made Walden a medium priority target then of course more recently made Siegrist a high priority target when Rosenthal was actually missing games. With Walden coming back the situation is more complex, I imagine it should be Walden’s job if Rosenthal goes down.

      8 seems a little low, I think he could see like 11 Save opps, but anyone is prone to a blow save or two so maybe 9-10 Saves notched in a little over 2 months of work. The season ends October 4th although the Phillies have also played an above average amount of games so far, making the 15 from Papelbon even more pathetic.

      • Beware the Shit Rope says:
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        @RotoLance: agree on walden, assuming he’s throwing normal.

  8. Eric B says:
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    Im good on saves with Chapman, Miller, Melancon and Britton. But I’m torn torn on my last spot. Rios, Dyson, Eaton and Deshields are al lavailable. My roster is below, any advice on who helps my team the most?

    5×5 12 Team HTH w/ OBP
    Bats
    C McCann
    1B Y. Grandal
    2B Kipnis
    3B Santana
    SS Aybar
    OF Pollock
    OF Calhoun
    OF Cepesedes
    OF Betts
    Util Avisail Garcia
    Util Soler
    Util Sano
    Bench 2B/SS/3B Semien
    DL Freeman
    DL Springer
    DL Stanton

    Staff
    P Kluber
    P Cole
    P Bauer
    P Salazar
    P T. Walker
    SP Odorizzi
    SP Hendricks
    RP Chapman
    RP Britton
    Bench RP Melancon
    Bench RP Miller
    Bench SP Lackey
    Bench ?

    I’m looking for the player that helps my team the most based on it’s current construction. So would you add one of Rios, Dyson, Eaton or Deshields ? Or hold tight on O and add an additional arm? Corbin, Gausman, Graveman, Jungman or Velasquez are available. Trying to hold on to first while Stanton, Springer and Freeman are on the DL…thanks in advance for the feedback.

    • RotoLance

      RotoLance says:
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      @Eric B: That’s a pretty good looking team for a relatively deep league.

      Whether you add an arm or a bat really just depends on what other people are doing and might be different every week depending on your matchup.

      I would probably favor DeShields for the bats. If it’s an arm you might be better off just streaming but you could also check Gilpin’s SP rankings.

      • Eric B says:
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        @RotoLance: Thanks for the advice, ended up picking up DeShields and follow JB’s articles pretty regularly.

  9. Beware the Shit Rope says:
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    i’m guessing rios’ ownership %’s have to do with defunct teams that haven’t been adjusted in months, as i’m in quite a few deep leagues, and he’s been dropped in most up to 20 teamers, and every 16 and under. in some 20’s readded, then dropped soon after.

  10. RotoLance

    RotoLance says:
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    There is some talk out there that Aroldis Chapman could be headed to the Washington Nationals. Wow, imagine Drew Storen’s value being hammered. That’s rough.

    Others are speculating that it could be Tyler Clippard back with the Nationals. The next in line for Clippard is somewhat unclear. Drew Pomeranz was moved back to the rotation and now it’s actually kinda looking like Edward Mujica’s job. Could easily end up a committee with Scribner and Mujica.

    “@JeffPassan 24h24 hours ago

    While teams don’t believe any deals are close with Ben Zobrist or Tyler Clippard, both will be traded in the coming days. A matter of time.”

    David Robertson looking somewhat likely to be traded. I’ll see if I can figure out who their next in line is by Monday because it’s still fairly up in the air.

    Craig Kimbrel could be headed somewhere. Toronto maybe? I think Joaquin Benoit has been owned in 12 team leagues everywhere so not much of a story.

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