SAGNOF: Happy Razz-iversary, Brandon Marsh

This week is a bit of an anniversary…or Razz-iversary… of sorts for your boy MarmosDad. It was this time last year that I posted my first DFS article and went on to do the full season (along with most of the NHL DFS on the hockey side of Razzball, too). Brandon Marsh was my lede on that maiden voyage through the Rivers of Razzball, so I figured it would be kind of fitting on anniversary #1 to head back to the one that started it all. I mentioned last week that I would like to highlight some new names, call-ups, or just do some check-ins on guys to see who might be a good source for steals each week. Low and behold, Brandon Marsh falls into that ‘check-in’ category from our pre-season profiles.

Brandon Marsh

Wayyyyyy back on February 22nd of this year, I wrote Marsh up and alluded to how much I like him as both a former top prospect and a good bet to flourish in a full time role with the Phillies. 

“…Marsh checks a few of the boxes for what I look for in a potential steals target, and sits snugly in that 7-15 range of SB that I mentioned earlier. Marsh is only 25 years old. If he can boost his contact and raise that OBP at the very least above the .300 mark (he was at .295 last year), he could double last year’s output in thefts. He should have full time playing time as the starting CF in Philly, but he’ll need to work on that 71% SB% from last year in spring, too.”

So, the natural question is has Marsh shown any of this OBP and contact rate improvement that we were hoping for? As I’ve said before, it’s still very early in the season, but there’s good news in our small sample size.

In the 21 games from our 2023 data, Marsh has managed to get out to what we’d classify as a hot start. Looking at the stats, his walk rate was the first number that jumped out to me (14.3%). That BB% is much better than the 6.1% in 134 games from last year. The contact and power are showing up early too. Marsh’s triple slash line of .364/.455/.758 is certainly unsustainable over another 100+ games, but for right now the 14 R, 4 HR, 13 RBI make for some pretty solid counting stats. 

Unfortunately, the one thing that hasn’t been as evident, and is kind of counterproductive to our column here, is the one stolen base. I still have faith that if Marsh can continue to get on base and stretch out this hot start into some positive regression from last year, he can get us at least a dozen SB this summer and provide a solid return on that 286 ADP from February.

So, Happy Razz-iversary to Brandon Marsh. Make sure to tie back that hair before you take a bite of the celebratory cake.

And now… the steals!

Let’s have a check in on a few of these teams that we didn’t write up last week.

Chicago Cubs

• I’ve said it a couple of times in the pre-season, and we talked about it on Podapalooza with Sara Sanchez (@BCB_Sara), but the Cubs ranked 4th in team steals last year and are making good on their off season promise to be fully on board with the running game again in 2023.
• Nico Hoerner leads the Cubs with 9 steals through Monday night’s games. 
• Although Hoerner has started off strong, he’s not the only one padding that sweet SAGNOF total. Chicago has gotten 4 SB from Ian Happ and the resurgent new daddy, Cody Bellinger (4). Dansby Swanson also has 3 on the year. 

Oakland

• We did a check in on my Razzball Staff Picks sleeper choice last week, Esteury Ruiz. He leads the A’s with 5 SB.
• Relatively undrafted, (and unknown), Connor Capel has 4 SB and looks like a decent early waiver wire snag to score some steals in that anemic Oakland lineup. Nice pick. No Cap.
• In just 9 games (12 AB), Tyler Wade, (yes that Tyler Wade), has 4 SB for the A’s. SAGNOF stalwart Tony Kemp and Jace Peterson each have a pair of steals.
• Just as a kind of quick hit, Jordan Diaz – Oakland’s newest hot prospect call-up from AAA – is not the guy you’re looking for if you’re prospecting for steals. His 30-grade speed tool is not what helped him get promoted, but the 60-grade hit tool should play.

Arizona

• The Diamondbacks were another top 5 team in the 2022 steals race, so seeing them here isn’t very surprising. Seeing Jake McCarthy with only 2 SB, though? That’s almost as shocking as his Tuesday afternoon demotion to Reno (AAA).
• Corbin Carroll leads the charge in the desert, with 8 of Arizona’s 21 SB this season.
• After Carroll, there are a handful of guys chipping in with SB. Nick Ahmed (3), Josh Rojas (2), the aforementioned McCarthy (2), and Alek Thomas have a couple each.

Now for some quick profiles. As I said before, I’ll try to mix these up with check-ins on guys we’ve looked at already in the pre-season, playing time changes, injury returns or new call-ups…

Thairo Estrada – S.F. – 2B/SS 

Estrada was a guy that was on a lot of draft season radars after a solid .260/.322/.402 triple slash last year. His 21 SB were a good indicator of the kind of wheels he could have with everyday playing time (541 PA). Estrada had three steals over the last week, and has continued to put up some great counting stats: 17 R, 4 HR, 7 RBI, 5 SB. The 2023 triple slash falls into the so-far-so-good category too, as Estrada is hitting .313/.367/.506 through 83 AB.

Multiple eligibility makes this guy a nice target for trade, especially if you need a replacement for those MI injuries that have popped up the last few weeks. Heck, he may even be OF eligible if your league uses different thresholds than the traditional leagues.

Josh Lowe – T.B. – OF 

Lowe. Like ‘Whoah” and not like that “Ow” that we heard from Oneil Cruz owners last week.

Frequent readers know about my totally healthy and not weird-at-all obsession with Nathaniel Lowe. I’ve said a few times that I was fully aboard the ‘Free Nate Lowe’ train, but it was tough to root for Big Nate’s exit when he was slated to play alongside his brother at some point in the future.

Fast forward that future to the present, and the feel-good ‘brothers in Tampa’ storyline lasted all of two games before Nate was shipped to Texas in December of 2020.

After a fairly disappointing 2022 that saw Josh hit 2 HR and steal 3 bases in 181 AB, most of the fantasy community was fully out on a 2023 rebound. As I said last week, us fantasy baseballers are collectively a pretty fickle group.

But a funny (not really funny) thing happened this spring…top prospect and budding star Josh Lowe didn’t fall off the face of the earth. He made the Rays opening day roster and, after an injury to regular CF Jose Siri, started to get close to everyday playing time. 

As of right now, Lowe has already surpassed his 2022 total with 4 HR and 4 SB this season. Through 18 GP, he’s slashing .328/.368/.625. 

Maybe he doesn’t keep that up over the next 100 games, but I think it’s safe to say that anyone that was fading Josh Lowe this spring is probably wishing they’d used that final round pick on the 550+ ADP here.

Jarren Duran – BOS – OF – 

This one is strictly for those AL only/deeper dynasty leagues, or those of you that want to try to swing for that big (but risky) top speed guy. Duran’s sprint speeds landed in the 96th percentile in 2021 and 93rd in 2022. Why didn’t he start the season in Boston if he’s got the potential to be a top burner and lead the league in steals? Well, for starters, the defensive issues are well documented…

Jarren Duran lost the ball and let up an inside-the-park grand slam for the Blue Jays ? @BRWalkoff

(via @Sportsnet)pic.twitter.com/3XgIw6oKUu

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) July 23, 2022

…but if you are looking for someone to replace an injured OF (Ramon Laureano? Garrett Mitchell? Giancarlo?) and want to roll the dice on someone that could win you the stolen base category in your roto-league, this guy might be for you. Adam Duvall is out long term, if not for the year, so Duran should at the very least get a long look here. The Red Sox aren’t contending for a title anytime soon either, so maybe they’ll be a bit more comfortable running out a subpar defensive OF for the potential increase in stolen bases.

Grey said it best in his buy/sell last Friday…”With Duvall out, Duran has been playing. He has 50-steal speed, 10-homer power and might hit .170.”

Before I leave for the week, here’s our top 10 SB leaders (individual). I’ll try to keep the chart handy for you each week just to use as a reference point if you find that it helps.

That’s all for this week! If you have any ideas of players that you want a deeper look at, drop them in the comments. As always, if you have any questions or thoughts, you can always catch me here or @MarmosDad on Twitter. And good luck with your SAGNOF plays this week!