SAGNOF: Begging You For Marsee

Howdy Y’all. Back from a couple week hiatus with your weekly SAGNOF picks and plays. I took the fam to the Black Hills for a few days, then myself to Las Vegas to enter the NFL contests over at Circa and do some Podcasts for my other sports gig covering MLB, Horse Racing, and NFL betting at TheOddsbreakers.com wesbite and podcast. Now that I have that shameless self promotion out of the way, let’s take a real quick dive into this weeks feature player, Jakob Marsee.

Here’s a guy who has been on Mike C’s radar all season and has done nothing but rake since arriving in MLB a few weeks ago. In 89 plate appearances, he is hitting .346 with four home runs and seven stolen bases.  The batting average will come back to earth with the BABIP currently at .426, but there’s lots of underlying metrics in this small sample size that says if he is still out there, you should grab him.

Speaking of grabbing him, Fantrax is where he is rostered the most, currently at 68%. He is still available in over 50% of ESPN and Yahoo leagues. Don’t wait, run to get him on the rooster!

Here’s why you should get him, especially if he’s still out there in a league where you hold your rosters. In the minors, the last two seasons he’s shown some pop with 16 homers in 2023 at A+/AA and 10 last year at AA/AAA stops. This year at AAA, he hit 14 home runs in 429 plate appearances before being called up. Pop isn’t why you want this kid, though. He has 50+ SB potential with a great hit tool, and he is going to be extra valuable in OBP leagues as his career low walk rate sits above 15%. The strikeout rate has never topped 22.5% at any minor league stop along his rise. He swiped 51 bases last season in the minors and 47 this year in only 3/4s of a season.

Hitting near the top of the Marlins lineup, if you pair up all those walks with his great stolen base skills, you’ve got a late season SAGNOF winner.

Here’s the current Stolen Base Leader Board through Sunday, August 24th

The Speed Dials

We went 1 for 4 on our last effort, making us now 12 for 46 on speed dials this season.

Remember, these are specific stolen base streaming targets for specific days where the player is owned in less than 50% of ESPN leagues. All stats represent both the 2024 and 2025 seasons combined.

Cardinals vs Pirates – Tuesday, August 26th

Nathan Church – While not nearly as active on the basepaths as a guy like Marsee Church does have some solid ON-base skills with a K-Rate in the minors that hovers around 11% and a walk rate near 8.5%. He also stole 16 bases in the minors this year and should have an everyday spot in the lineup for now against right handed pitching. He will face Mitch Keller and his league leading 56 SBs allowed over the last two seasons. Henry Davis is #4 in throwing out baser-runners, but he hasn’t been catching for Keller. Joey Bart and his 16% cut down rate will likely be behind the dish.

Marlins vs Braves – Wednesday, August 27th

Jakob Marsee – Our lead gets the Speed Dial on Thursday against Joey Wentz and the Braves. His sprint speed, I didn’t mention above it slightly above average, but not great at 28.1 Ft/Sec. Wentz allows .201 SB/IP, and all 28 runners who have attempted to steal against him have succeeded.  It will likely be Drake Baldwin catching with a lefty behind the dis,h and he is near the bottom of the catcher leaderboard throwing out just 10% of would be base stealers.

Brewers vs Diamondbacks – Thursday, August 28th

Sal Frelick – Better call Sal makes yet another appearance on the Speed Dials and has had great success so far. He faces recent call-up Nabil Crismatt, and his .250 SB/IP thus far. Recently returned Gabriel Moreno is in the top third of the catcher leaderboard, while James McCann hovers near the middle for the Snakes.

Angels vs Astros – Friday, August 29th

Luis Rengifo – Lance McCullers faces the Angels on Friday and has allowed a SB to Rengifo recently. He carries a .166 SB/IP, and no would be base stealers have been thrown out yet. That bodes well for Rengifo and his below average success rate of just 50% 6 for 12 in 2025. He should get more chances with a weak bottom of the order for Angels here in the last month.

That’s all, folks. Any other questions, hit me up here or on Twitter @TheGreatKnoche