Ryan Pepiot, 2026 Fantasy Baseball Sleeper

You know what kind of fantasy baseball sleeper Ryan Pepiot is? A lay-up. Now it’s up to me to prove that. Once upon a time, Itch placed Ryan Pepiot in the top 100 prospects. There was talk when he was on the Dodgers, as a prospect, he might be an ace in the making. Here I thought Pepiot was a dish you could only get in New Orleans. Need Emeril to explain to me how the holy trinity plus command gets you Pepiot. “Pepiot is not just a blonde roux with a mirepoix, he’s also the Chief leading the Treme marching band. Bam!” Okay, that’s the extent of my Ahlins-speak. Okay, one more side note, it’s hilarious that Emeril made a name for himself in New Orleans and he has an insanely thick Masshole accent. Just one of the wilder mixes. Back to Pepiot, it’s always weird when a guy is touted coming up, then his hype just magically fades away. Pepiot (and Jonny DeLuca) were traded to the Rays for Tyler Glasnow (and Manuel Margot) and that makes me think the Rays really wanted him. To recap: Fantasy baseballers recently wanted him; the Rays, a team that everyone thinks is smart, wanted him and last year he went 167 2/3 IP with a 3.86 ERA, 9 K/9, 3.3 BB/9 with a tick up in velocity (95.2 MPH on the fastball), which was good for a top 35 starter last year on the Player Rater, and now he’s being drafted around the 45th to 50th starter off the board. This is already a layup and I didn’t even get on the other side of the intro paragraph. All right, let’s make like a Y axis and go down a graph! So, what can we expect from Ryan Pepiot for 2026 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

Mentioned this before, but a 9 K/9 and a 1 BB/9 or 10 K/9 or more and a 2 BB/9 or lower, and you’re in ace territory. Then you move those closer to each other and you’re getting a number two, then a three and so on. Ryan Pepiot is borderline a two to three. It’s a very solid number three, at worst. Last year, he had a 1.4 HR/9. That was in Big Stein. Put him in a stadium that’s haunted like Trop, and he’s going to fall back to a 1.2 or lower HR/9, then you’re looking at a 3.60 ERA. Now, get a little lucky, and I’m talking Pepiot into top 20 starter territory. Easy, Grey! Stop getting horned up for number threes with number two upside. He does give up a lot of fly balls (45.3% for his career), but that was not a problem in Trop. It was a problem last year, and he was still a top 35 starter!

The one knock on Ryan Pepiot was his lack of command. Yeah, when he was first called up, he had a 6.7 BB/9. El oh el. That is awful. That was a long time ago. He has a 3.4 BB/9 in 376 career innings, and 3.3 BB/9 last year. He’s not exactly elite with his command, but it’s far from the awfulness that people thought it would be. He’s basically league average.

His four-seamer’s velocity went up last year, as mentioned, but his BAA went down. Again, Big Stein. His Big Stein BAA was .233 on the four-seamer, and .181 last time in Trop. His Whiff% went down from 31.4% to 25.2%. Again, that was in the park change. Put him back in the Trop, where hitters are afraid if they hit a fly ball they’ll knock down an air conditioning unit and pray Yandy catches it, and it’s gonna be lights out. Literally, if one of those fly balls hits a light tower.

Now, for burying the lede: His changeup is unhittable. It’s stupid:

Number one on spin. Had a .200 BAA, 30.1 Whiff%, and he threw it 25% of the time. Very, very stupid:

Ryan Pepiot, Filthy 87mph Changeup. ?

5th K pic.twitter.com/i0sYaKYOS6

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 5, 2025

Why don’t people care about Pepiot? Maybe it’s his lack of a nickname. Call him The Piot! Ya know, like Ryan Theriot was The Riot. No? Hmm, you’re likely right. Maybe it’s because projections seem to hate him. They have him down as a 9.2 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 pitcher — two steps forward — but as a 4.27 ERA guy. Why? I don’t know. They have his home runs allowed staying where they were in the terrible park vs. regressing. His HR/9 in home games last year: 1.7 and in away games 1.0. The year before in Trop it was 1.1. So, guy gets legit better in numerous ways, and will be in a better park and projections think he’ll take a step back. No. Dur. Sorry, this is incredibly obvious. For 2026, I’ll give Ryan Pepiot projections of 10-9/3.58/1.15/172 in 170 IP with a chance for more on ratios.