You know what I keep finding? No, not lint in body areas that I need Google to identify. Though, I do feel bad for the guy that keeps asking on Yahoo! Answers, “How do you stop lint from accumulating in your philtrum?” What I keep finding is sleepers that really weren’t that bad last year. Let’s throw out runs and RBIs, because those are a product of lineup placement and team offense, and let’s look at the all important HRs, batting average and SBs. One guy had 16 HRs, 6 SBs and a .261 average; another guy had 21 HRs, 2 SBs and .287 average. One guy is 33 years old; one guy is 21 years old. One guy is obviously Rougned Odor and one guy is Robinson Cano. For those that just skim think pieces and daydream during the offseason, I’m gonna give you the most succinct knowledge you will find outside of “Don’t sleep with a girl who has a blister on her lip and scratches herself in public.” That knowledge: 33 years old is on the wrong side of a hitter’s bell curve for production, and 21 years old is on the right side. If you have an X-axis labeled “Age,” and a Y-axis labeled “Production,” Odor’s going up and Cano’s going down. I.e., in 2016, I’d want Odor over Cano. Now, even a jury member that found Robert Durst innocent can tell you Cano will be drafted before Odor in all leagues, so I think we’ve found some value. Anyway, what can we expect from Rougned Odor for 2016 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?
I just told you what made him a sleeper, don’t make me go back there! What to expect is a little trickier. The big question for Odor is not “What is that smell?” but can we expect 16 homers or more again after he maxed out at 10 homers in any one season of the minors. Due to his relatively crazy young age, we should throw out his maximum power output in the minors. Sure, he hit only ten homers one year in 109 games in Single-A, but he was also 18 years old at the time. When you were eighteen, you were farting into Ziplock bags seeing if it would last until your brother came home from school. Let’s assume Odor’s gotten better since 18; Rougned Odor, not your odor. Last year, he had a 11.8% homer per fly ball rate. That’s really not crazy high for him. He hits a lot of fly balls, and gets into a few of them. Some guys that his fly ball rate compares to is Trevor Plouffe, Mark Trumbo, Bryce Harper and Stephen Vogt. He’s not quite these players, as you can imagine, but his fly balls do bode well for him hitting for some power (say 17-22 HRs). More regarding his batted ball profile: he hits no line drives. Like, “Dude Where’s My Line Drives?” bad. In fact (Grey’s got more!), in 400 plate appearances, he had the third worst line drive rate, Jose Bautista, Juan Lagares and then him (followed by Mike Napoli, Ian Desmond and Stephen Drew). Did any of those guys hit above .260? Yes, Odor, that’s it. That, Odor, stinks. As for his steals, six steals last year will be his all-time low in ten years. I don’t even know how he stole so few. He had a 27-steal season once in the minors and I think once he figures out how to run, he could steal 25 bases a season. For 2016, Steamer projects Odor for 17 HRs, 12 SBs and .273. The power seems about right, but everything else feels like a toss up. A good toss up though, not a bad tossup like sitting on a plane next to a juggling mime. For 2016, I’ll give Odor the projections of 81/19/69/.253/15 and is a huge sleeper.
Grey, my man, missin you! Missing baseball. wtf is happening in the NL West?
@assy: In what respect, assy?
Grey,
Good stuff. Odor was an important part of the Rangers’ revival and eventual AL West takeover. Definitely bodes well for a good follow-up season in ’16.
When I was in my junior year of high school I captured a fart in a ziplock bag and popped it on someone’s head (He’ll remain anonymous because he is mostly anonymous and for his privacy.). The poor guy smelled all day and you wonder why I am still waiting for a reply for the posting in Bassikounou. I wasn’t a bully, mostly naive and timid. Prolly someone put me up to do it and I did. I have a life time of bad karma to outlive.
Cheers,
Ante
@Ante GALIC: We used to take a Whoopi cushion, hide it under our coat while waiting in line at a public place, squeeze it then look around trying to embarrass someone. Makes me laugh 40 years later. Sad thing is that was good clean fun compared to now days.
@Packers: Hey, man. Yeah whoopi cushions are fun and goofy. The stuff that passes NOW is almost criminal. We’ve had to confiscate our 15-year old daughter’s mobile phone twice in the past year. She’s not evil, it’s the boys who get her to do stuff that are evil. She still has to learn not to do it, we’ll get her a new sim card so she can start fresh but our daughter seems to be a magnet for that kind of stuff.
Cheers,
Ante
@Ante GALIC: Your fart lasted a full day on someone’s head? You didn’t fart in your job interview did you?
@Ante GALIC: @Ante GALIC: Prarabdha’s a bitch.
Know of any links where I can join a auction Roto league in north jersey / NYC area?
@Rotoraven: Still don’t
2 part question here:
On the heels of the Hou/Phi trade I have a RP query. Please rank the following RP as keepers in a dynasty format (Wins, QS, Saves, ERA, WHIP, K/9) :
Familia, Betances, Giles, Robertson
Part 2 is a little more complicated. My league is dropping from 12 to 10 this off-season which seems to put even more of an emphasis on quality of IP over last season. I am currently planning to keep 1 RP but I am debating keeping 2 in order to form an elite bullpen heading into the draft. Alternatively I can move one of the better RP straight up for Tanaka or possibly my best for Darvish. I am looking for advice on which strategy makes the most sense (RP or SP) and which SP is the best bargain.
League is 10 team, 12 keepers so there will be RP available in the draft, however they tend to go early and often. That said, I would most likely be the only team keeping 2 RP. SP keepers are Price, Arrieta and Syndergaard.
@Turd Furgeson: Giles, Familia… It doesn’t mean there’s more emphasis on IP… It means there will be a ton of SPs available all year… You should try to get another two players in your league now
@Grey: we took a vote and the decision was to drop to 10 and see how it goes. League has been together for 10+ years of guys that know each other as far back as 1st grade. The 2 managers we considered were friends of friends with one having limited fantasy experience.
I hear ya, I’d try to find two other friends that have more fantasy experience… Or I’d go to NL or AL… Turd, 10 teams mixed removes all dynasty consideration… Just becomes a giant cluster of waivers
Or deepen rosters by a lot
@Grey: we expanded the roster size from 27 to 33 and added 2 more amateur spots (minor leaguers), in addition to adding a 4th OF and MI/CI to account for that
Go to 5th OF and two UTIL spots too
@Grey: my point about quality of IP is due to your point that there will be so much SP available. Everyone is going to have at least a few mid range SP. I was thinking that I need to guarantee as many quality IP per week as possible to limit the innings diluted by mediocrity. We have a 50 IP minimum so seemed like an opportunity to create separation
Yeah, but in a ten team league, you’ll be able to get guys off of waivers that will be great… I’m just saying, I think you’re gonna want a more difficult league… Is this daily league?
@Grey: you and I are in agreement here, unfortunately this league is a democracy with many in the league fearful of change. I pushed for 12, and was actually hoping to expand to 14 before we had 1 guy step down, and then the worst performing manager in the league seize the opportunity to follow his lead.
The league is H2H with daily edits. I have previously pushed for weekly transaction limits or a FAAB budget, but like I said many don’t like change or things they don’t understand so both ideas were shot down in a vote.
Gotcha, well, I guess you tried… I’m just saying a 10 team league is a whole different animal, and one with a big swing towards luck over skill
@Grey: my sentiments exactly. pretty sure I used that exact phrase in one of my soap box rants to the league…
anyway….sooooo, you think keep Giles and Familia then??? ha!
Ha, yeah, I’d keep them
Anyone get Springsteen tickets ?
@JoeG414: Is he playing at the Stone Pony?
Never happen unless he shows up unexpected.
I just checked in LA… $400 for SRO
haha yeah in Atlanta at 10 am. NYC was impossible and NJ is a kings ransom to scalp
I think Springsteen actually lives in Ransom, NJ…Or maybe that’s Rumson…
To your point. Top 250 rankings at espn which just came out.
Cano – 42
Odor – 96
@Tim: See that?
I like this sleeper. Odor went #103 in the first NFBC 50 player draft/hold of the year in which I partook.
I winged this draft, and learned very quickly that pitching is top heavy. After the 25-30 range, it is a big mushy middle. Like Re-Run.
Am I the first team of 2016? Thoughts for this format?
C; Castillo, Hundley, Phegley, Susac
1B; Abreu, (Hosmer), (Valbuena)
2B; Harrison, (Lawrie), C Hernandez, Infante
3B; Lawrie, (Harrison), Valbuena, Uribe, Aviles
SS; Segura, (A Ramirez), Hardy, O Arcia, (Aviles)
CI; Hosmer
MI; A Ramrez
OF; Stanton, N Cruz, Soler, Span, D Jennings, (Harrison), P Tucker, A Pagan, R Quinn, S Smith, (Aviles)
Util; Prince Fielder
SP; Strasburg, Wacha, Odorizzi, Kazmir, M Moore, Z Wheeler, Nelson, Medlen, Anderson, M Gonzalez, Zimmer, Alvarez, Banuelos, M Minor, R Montero, Cliff Lee
RP; Osuna, Street, Hoover, Shaw, Hochevar, Delgado, Nathan
@UL’s Toothpick: How many teams?
@Grey:
15
You went oF heavy, huh? I like the team, you look pretty weak on pitching and MI
@Grey:
I went power, pitching, then speed and tried to target categories. Pitching was pushed up and I whiffed/ missed on several targets.
You went pitching? Hmm, doesn’t appear so… Power I see though, hopefully Soler steps up
@Grey:
Yeah. That was strategy. Pitching went early. Lesson learned.
Gotcha
You really do know your target demographic well, that is exactly what I was doing when I was 18
Even the five girl readers were doing it
Odor or Castro next year?
Odor
@Wilson: I’d say Odor, but I think Castro will have a big year and better numbers when all is said and done.
@Malicious Phenom: if you believe that sentence you should do rankings for espn/yahoo. that sentence (and the thoughts that underline it) might just be a prereq
Grey is God
God takes an escalator up to consult with me, when that stupid escalator isn’t out of order
Saw Odor go at 90 over all in one of the really early NFBC drafts. If he starts going inside the top 100 do you still see that as a good buy?
I do, feels like around the top 5ish at the position…Top 90 starts to lose value though, obviously
@Grey: tha’s bout where wong went last year in many drafts………
………………
just kidding (with the dots), i wanted wong but never paid that price last year at all. felt bad about it post draft, much better later. Of course the first part of that last sentence i felt about mookie too, not so much the longer the season went on.
I hear ya
Grey
He agreed to part of the deal where I give up Tolleson and Glasnow and he gives up Berrios and Sal Perez he is trying to come up with something for the rest of the deal. So stay tuned
Cool
Grey
Heyward signs with Cubs
Sweet
still waiting for offer
Gotcha
Grey
Just got his offer.
I give: DeGrom Cain Glasnow Bautista and Zimmer plus your 10th and 11th
I get: Perez archer berrios Mazara and iwakuma and my 4th and 5th.
Not good
what if I swapped deGrom for Severino
I’d prefer to send Severino
Heyward a Cub!
Nice
@Grey: STL f’d up big time unless they somehow don’t chince out and get like c.davis, cause they need offense really bad. and they just let a bunch of defense just leave, even though they both
A. were supposedly actually trying
and
B. he was supposedly suppose to get 200 million (which he didn’t). crazy if he actually took a discount as something particularly against Cardinals.
If they only end up with buying Gordon this offseason (i’m counting starting players here, Pena/Gyorko don’t count) they are in deep trouble vs CUBS much faster than i thought they might be. They’ll likely get Chen too, but that really doesn’t compare to some of Upton/Price/Heyward/C.Davis/Cargo 1 (which they still could get, but i’m pretty sure most of his career stats are very buffered by Coors (not so much last year though), not to mention how much better Heyward is in def over all other guys out there this year). It was completely understandable losing Pujols for his crazy balls contract, but a guy of Heyward’s age 8 years isn’t that crazy at all. Since they lost and he took less than 200 something’s up.
Crazy that $170 mill is a discount
Excuse me, $184 mill
Grey,
I was offered:
Springer and Scherzer for Arenado and Sale
It’s a keeper league with OBP and SLG instead of AVG and HR.
Which side do you prefer?
Thanks!
Hold
@Grey:
What about Pederson and Sale for Springer?
Springer side
@Grey: which side do you prefer:
Altuve and Springer
Arenado, Sale, JD Martinez, and Xander
Thanks
Arenado
Nolan and Sale for me.
have you seen this have you heard about this? what are your thoughts on that vince staples album if you’ve heard it? lift me up is awesome
Nah, haven’t heard anything from it? Good?
@SheriffMcRawDawg: f***ing great yelp share yesterday
@J-FOH: haha 84 Linden was seriously our house, graduated in ’09. someone stumbled upon that haha. Linden street’s been 2 stars ever since… smdh
Questions por favor: Dynasty league, Papelbon or Soria (Saves & Holds league)? McHugh or Reddick+2nd round pick (20th overall)? Thanks!
Papelbon…. McHugh
Grey! What do you think about Xander in an OBP and SLG league? Is he top 40? 50? About the 2nd or 3rd SS?
Any thoughts appreciated!
I’ll have my rankings in January…Top 50 sounds too high
What do you think Springer Dinger’s ceiling is? top 10? top 5?
@Also Looking for a Job: Top 10
What do you think Springer Dinger’s ceiling is? Top 5? Top 10?
Did you watch Nathan The Hero???
I didn’t, went to see The Revenant last night
@Grey: I think you missed the last one too. Just so ridiculous and so good. Do yourself a favor and let your cackles out
Nah, I saw the previous one… Where he’s trying to prove he’s fun?
I’ll never forget the summer when I figured out how to light my farts on fire.
That’s the beginning of the recently published JD Salinger memoir, right?
Any chance I can swipe your OBP projection for him a bit early?
For who?
@Grey: Odor
.330-ish
Grey
The guy wants five players from this list
trout posey Altuve Votto Bautista Correa Cain deGrom Harvey donaldson Glasnow Scherzer Tolleson Crawford Snell and Zimmer. From this list which other two along Zimmer Tolleson and Glasnow should I offer to get from him: Berrios,Mazara,Perez archer and Iwakuma?
Glasnow, Snell, Zimmer, Crawford, Tolleson
Grey
Just so you know I would be giving up 4 minor league prospects
Good, you don’t need them…
Any other combinations
Whatever gives only minor league prospects works
what grey I didn’t understand what you said
Give him your minor leaguers
Grey he won’t move those players for just prospects
Figures
So now what do I do
grey who do I offer now
Who does he want?
The list I gave you
Well, he can’t have all of those guys, tell him to narrow it down to two guys he wants
hes getting Glasnow Tolleson and Zimmer. Who else should I offer from that list
Who else does he want?
i know he really wants Bautista
I wouldn’t trade Bautista for these schmos you’re trying to get… Get a cheaper catcher from someone else
Grey who should I give up besides Glasnow Tolleson and Zimmer to get Manzara Berrios Archer and Iwakuma
Give Glasnow Tolleson and Zimmer for Iwakuma
Odor or Schoop ?
Odor
rewatching shield since it’s been talked about so much lately, love it, shane loses coke filled cop car with around half mil in coke, all so he could get (optimistically 15 minutes at most) of ass. great stuff.
@Let us now Praise Famous Death Dwarves: oh, yeah, from a woman who lem goes to point out “isn’t even that hot”
I just finished watching the entire series and I want to rewatch it already it was so good
@Grey: i had seen probably most of first 3 seasons when it was on TV, then maybe 4 years later all of it in order, but youse guys talking about it lately got it back going again for me.
There was very little fall off between seasons… I think it held up a standard better than a lot of other shows that get more recognition…
@Grey: i agree with the lack of falloff, my sporadic interest when it was current was just that i wasn’t “dedicated to my favorite shows” as much at that time period. FOH will get that lyric reference.
Yup
@Grey: one thing i just noticed in that early season 1 episode, when they find the guy who had gotten their coke from the stolen car he’s dead of an overdose on that very coke. While this wouldn’t be proof enough for aceveda to lock up mackey, it would pretty much show aceveda that FOR SURE mackey and the gang stole that coke. I’m supposing that an autopsy on the dead guy would show very similar coke potency levels that match the 4 bags in evidence room. (unless i’m wrong and once coke is inside a human it only shows amount in bloodstream, and not what % strength of coke taken, but i think i’m right)
@Aubrey Plaza’s Pillow: big shield guy am I as well, hehe.
I think you’re right, but autopsy or really anything after a confession or a lockup, they never really deal with until later with the DA
@Grey: true, and like acededa told julien “just forget it” till he’s got definite proof, and he knows damn well as soon as he makes an official allegation it damn well better work, otherwise he’ll probably lose his job and any chance at moving up the political ranks.
@Aubrey Plaza’s Pillow: aceveda
Grey give up Glasnow Tolleson and Zimmer for just Iwakuma
Glasnow and Tolleson?
Looks like no deal to be made. Said no to that
Would you rather have deGrom or Archer
DeGrom
harvey or archer
Harvey
>Grey That’s what I thought
So Heyward is worth 184 at 16 hr/23 steal/.259 career ave. What’s that make Gomez worth next year assuming a normal 20/40/.270? I know Heyward is younger but gomez plays a more premium defensive position.
@Cole: I imagine 20/40/.270 is not something Gomez can accomplish again.
Gomez is like 5 years older isn’t he?
@Grey: wow, our name is now below our message, reversy styly.
since gomez didn’t show himself as good till pretty late i often forget he’s that old as well.
Hmm, guess that was a WordPress update
Would like your thoughts on the Heyward signing. I guess I’m just old school, but 13 dingers, 60 RBI’s gets you $180 million these days? I know that Heyward is a fantastic defensive player, and he has a high WAR, but he’s not exactly an offensive juggernaut. The Pirates have to be laughing all the way to the bank. They are paying Marte $3 million this next season. He had much better offensive numbers in 2015 than Heyward, and also had a better fielding percentage and more outfield assists. Blackmon also had better offensive numbers than Heyward last year, I believe. I bet if I really did my homework, I could find quite a few OF’s who had comparable numbers to Heyward, who make far less. I’m sure many here will disagree with me, but I just don’t think Heyward was worth that much money.
I’ll go over him on Monday
For fantasy that is, you mean real baseball? Who is worth $180 million? Heyward filled a need, is young, has defense, and isn’t a head case… Over four years (when he can opt out, and likely will), that’s not bad if you have a ton of cheap guys around him….
@Aubrey Plaza’s Pillow: [email protected]Grey: non-capped sport, so why wouldn’t CUBS do just what they want here? (i’m seeing they actually were 3rd highest bid, WAS reported today offered 200)
@Aubrey Plaza’s Pillow: it SHOULD of course be a capped sport (like NFL/NHL) if in fact what you want to do is attempt to create a level playing field for 30 teams of course.
Yeah, exactly
Who’s the better long term investment… Springer Dinger or Corey Seager? Would you trade Seager for Springer in a dynasty league?
Guess depends on how long term… I’d want Springer for this year…
@Grey:
I was thinking over the next 3 years…
Springer and Kluber
or
C. Seager and Harvey
same question with Marte and Kluber for Seager and Harvey
Seager
Tough call, likely go Seager
Hello Grey,
What are your thought on Rendon next year? Do you think this year was just an anomaly or does last season just highlight how little you can trust his injury history? Do you think he will be a top _ 2B next year.
Top 12
Grey
The deal is dead.
Gotcha
TC? I call horse hockey…
Yeah, was surprised by that one… I think Grayson doing something good is total horse hockey… Reads to me like they’re building up her story… I mean her uni salad looked so boring
@Grey: Yes, it’s all the magic of reality tv ‘suprise’. I swear 2 minutes into the episode I said to my wife, Grayson did so bad last week that she is going to smoke the challenges tonight and it’s exactly what happened. Alot of the dishes weren’t very inspired. Only one that was close in a good way was Beard and Tiger Woods. And the LezAsian going home? C’mon, both the other dishes looked worse, especially dudes messed up steak with no seasoning because he took all his time doing stencils.
LezAsian got ripped off, there’s about ten people that should’ve went home before… I’m liking that Matador guy… Seafood guy from Miami
I was offered Marte for Betts… whatcha think big guy?
I’d take Marte, toss up really
@Fatt Matt: Bettttttttttttsssss!!!!!
wow, this just might be the worst cop shooting on video ever, and so far he’s not even being charged. don’t need to see the whole video, just from about :57 to 2:00 or so.
What? That Chicago one?
@Grey: paradise CA.
Ah… There’s so many, I hadn’t heard of that one
@Grey: i hadn’t either, facebook link from numerous people i know. there are so many, but that one is just so pure in it’s crapulence in murder, almost looked like cop was following the guy to put a hit on him even before the car wreck, as there was no reason nor hesitation about it with that shot. Like he was playing Duck Hunt or something.
Papelbon, Britton, Ziegler, Osuna, Wilhelmsen, K Rod, Perkins, Soria, Hoover
Who may not be a closer in the beginning of next season? thanks
Soria
Grey,
Would you trade Bautista if it meant getting Archer? If no why not? If yes why yes?
No
he wants Cueto for Iwakuma
Tell him no
Grey
I got a trade offer. What link should I send it to?
Grey,
Would you trade Bautista if it meant getting Keuchel? If no why not? If yes why yes?
No
Ok Grey
This is the list of players he is interested in from my team
Posey
Votto
Altuve
Correa
Donaldson
Bautista
Cain
Trout
deGrom
Harvey
Tolleson
Crawford
Zimmer
Glasnow
Is there a package of 5 that would get me
Berrios
Manzara
Keuchel
Iwakuma
Perez
Or should I just forget it?
Grey
You have a new link so I can ask you the trade question?
@Scott Kimmel: hint, the one with the date more recent than this page. INSIDER SUPER hint, not only more recent than this one, but the MOST recent, at all times, is the ticket. it’s tricky, but with the right meds it’s obtainable. If this was espn you would’ve had to pay for that already.