Last week I joined a league called The Devil’s Rejects. You’ve probably seen posts on this league over at FanGraphs recently. In fact, it must have subconciously rubbed off on me because that is a very FanGraphsy title. Rejects is a 20-team dynasty with 45-man rosters where we keep 28 forever. It’s full of industry talent from sites like FG and Baseball Prospectus. Razzball’s own J-FOH has a team and we’ve already made our first trade with no blood, sweat, or tears spilled. The squad I took over was one that had cycled through a couple of owners in the previous two or three years. So yeah, it’s a bit of a project. But the point of this post is that there’s one name on this roster I have absolutely no idea what to do with, and I’m wondering if other dynasty geeks out there are faced with the same problem. It’s Shohei Otani, the Japanese pitcher who’s tearing it up in the NPB.
First, the vitals on Otani. He’s 21 and arguably the best pitcher in the NPB already. He throws mid-to-upper 90s gas along with a splitter, slider, and a slow curve. He struck out 196 batters in 160 innings last season to go along with a 2.24 ERA and a 2.6 BB/9. So yeah, he’s good. Really good. And young…which is like catnip in dynasty leagues. I mean, FanGraphs just posted an article called The Best Young Pitcher In The World in which he was prominently featured. So what’s the problem Mikey? Just keep this cat. Here’s the problem, my italicized friend…he’s still in Japan. Unless something changes with posting rules, he’s probably going to stay in Japan for the next three years. It’s essentially like taking a high-upside 19-year-old from the 2016 draft – it’s going to be a while. I already hate pitchers in dynasty leagues, and this is compounded by the fact that Otani isn’t going to help me anytime soon. Even though I’m rebuilding, is this guy worth burning a roster slot for three years? I could cycle through three MLB-ready prospects in that same time frame – albeit without the lofty ceiling. Here’s where it gets even trickier…there’s a chance MLB changes the rules again and suddenly presto change-o Otani gets posted sooner. Kazuto Yamazaki wrote about this very thing in his DynastyGuru profile of Otani earlier this fall:
So, here’s the biggest question. When does this high-octane hurler head to the big leagues? Under the current CBA, it’s hard to see the Nippon Ham Fighters post him earlier than the 2019 off-season. Though there might be a major change in the posting system after the 2016 season. If the new rules favor NPB clubs, we may expect a sooner timetable for him.
Ugh. So there’s a chance I hold him and he doesn’t surface until 2019, but there’s also a chance I let him loose and find out he’s coming to MLB for 2017. I’m not going to fret over this, but it is kind of a fascinating situation for dynasty owners. If your team was rebuilding and you essentially had Jose Fernandez part two in your hand (but couldn’t use him for three years) would he be worth holding as part of a 28-man roster? Do you cut him and hope to redraft? Do you reassess your life because you just wrote 600 words on Shohei Otani at 3AM while partaking in vaporwave and Totino’s pizza rolls? Hmmm…
I was really hoping you’d say “Get this guy on your roster ASAP!” I’ve got him and don’t know what to do either. Maybe with Maeda getting posted interest in Otani will go up. I dont know much about Kivlehan and Pinder so I’m not sure how to evaluate that return. So…thanks i guess? ;)
ha, yeah I think he’ll be great, I just don’t like that it’s such a moving target ETA. Makes it hard to value him IMO. You might be right that if people see Maeda going for X, Otani interest could spike.
Hello Mike, who do you think will go no. 3 in a 15 team dynasty draft? Will be international signees after opening day and all 2015 mlb draft picks
hmmm, probably a guy like Bregman or Martinez, maybe Benintendi
Glad you stuck to your guns on this one Mike. Hopefully it will all work the way you want it to.
I wont name any names, so we don’t give out any spoilers on a future post, but there is a specific player tearing up the Mexican Pacific League. This is my first year even loosely following the winter leagues and I was wondering: just how competitive is the MPL. I hear a lot more about the Dominican, Venezuela, and Puerto Rican Leagues. That may just have to do with the players I’m following. Is it even fair to try to rank one against another?
Thanks again for all the posts!
thanks man…I don’t have a great answer for this, since I view them all as a little wonky. I pay more attention to news on guys who “change their approach”, find velocity, change positions, or were injured and are trying to accumulate healthy innings or at bats (big picture kinda stuff)
@Mike:
A little wonky seems like as good of a way to describe them as any. Thanks again Mike!
anytime
5×5 roto weekly-lineups dynasty league, all players kept indefinitely —
I was offered Kolten Wong for Jake Odorizzi.
I have lots of SP already (Price, Greinke, Scherzer, Tanaka, Darvish, Iwakuma, and Matz for 5 SP slots), and a declining Pedroia at 2B.
Would you take the deal?
Thanks for the input!
anytime…I’d take it, yeah
I know you ended up trading him away but who were the other guys you were considering in his place for that final spot?
Matt Wisler, Mike Fulmer, Hunter Harvey, Kyle Zimmer (arms). Steven Moya, Peter O’Brien, Blake Rutherford (bats)
@Mike: I can’t believe you gave up on a guy whose name anagrams to “I Hate Ho Noise”
@Running Frog: It actually doesn’t… But I made you look.
ha! I love it anyway!
20 team Dynasty League…..
CF Joc Pederson
RF Jorge Soler
SS JP Crawford
18th overall draft pick*
19th overall draft pick*
*Draft includes all 2015 draftees, plus anyone who signed/signs between-April 2015-May 2016, so H.Olivera, Maeda etc will be eligible)
for
Mike Trout
With how untouchable Trout is viewed in nearly all formats, how close do you deem this offer to be, and would you pull the trigger if you were a Trout owner not currently in contention, and aiming to win in a 3-4 years?
still the Trout side. even if your team isn’t competing right now, Trout is projected to be well above average through like 2020 or something
@Mike:
Lemme try a different angle……thoughts on….
Clayton Kershaw
Max Scherzer
Joc Pederson
for
Trout
Gray
Syndergaard
@Mike, Myth, Legend:
Or a third angle……using any/all names you’ve seen on both sides of the ledger.
If Mike was a hypothetical arbiter of a fair trade…..what would he put together for a fair Trout trade?
I just wouldn’t trade him in a 20-team dynasty. Sorry :(
@Mike:
The Million Dollar Man Ted Dibiase taught me when I was a very young lad, that….everybody’s got a price.
*insert maniacal laughter here*
haha this is true
@Mike: Short of an offer the other owner would never make (like Harper plus Correa), I can’t see any scenario where a Trout owner should deal him in a 20-team dynasty.
yup, agreed
Funny you mentioned the DG article by Yamazaki, I read it a few weeks back. He certainly seems like a great prospect, but it’s weird that you can own guys that aren’t even in the states yet. I mean at least the kids in the DSL are all under contract.
So can you scout Cuban players and buy them when they’re unsigned? How does that work?
@Ralph Lifshitz: yup, its really lame. As long as they are added in CBS, then you can add the
don’t even have to be in the pool…you can literally have anybody you want. Blake Rutherford is on this roster too, and he’s a 2016 draft guy
@Mike: So theoretically I could add my 3 month old Nolan and just wait 22 years?
exactly….is he any good? I might need him
@Mike: Mean dribble ball not sure it’s legal. Raw at this point but high ceiling. Some people compare him to Jeff Suppan, others Greg Maddux. Rumors of a drinking problem and an unhealthy obsession with his mother’s breasts might hurt his draft stock, but he has another 9-10 months of that being “normal”..
sounds like a steal in the sandwich round. mmmm, sandwiches.
Since it’s pretty clear you’re rebuilding and if you’re not getting any good offers this year, I’d actually hold him and hope that there’s a speeding up of his time table for posting and he becomes an asset next off-season.
right on, thanks Steve! I ended up flipping him to another rebuilder for Kivlehan and Pinder though
@Mike:
Nice
thanks Steve
Update: Mike trades Otani. Did you forward him this post?
lol no I didn’t! I had been asking for Kivlehan and Pinder, so I’m happy. I feel better with the closer bats than the lottery arm.
@Mike: you know I like Pinder
Is this the league where BJ wrote about silly trade negotiations? That wasn’t about you. Was it? Kidding.
If I remember. He was awfully high on that list of world’s best pitchers. Great pitching(as you know) is pretty valuable in a 20 teamer. The question should be.. Do you believe in him?
yup, it’s the same league. I’m not having trouble getting deals done like he was talking about (and no it wasn’t my trade negotiation he was mentioning in that article haha) but my team is also in a different place than his. He’s a contender and fine tuning.
It’s like the difference between painting the shutters (him) and bulldozing the guest house (me).
This league sucks!…..until you got here. Now it’s tolerable suckatude. Remember when I would tell commenters to get a better league well this is the twilight zone and I’m on the other side of my computer screen. Make the childish trade game stop..please mike, make it stop
haha, I’m glad I’ve made it less sucky for ya
@J-FOH: Is it a money league?
yeah, there’s a buy in
@Mike: I hate trading in money leagues. It’s akin to pulling a smashed half dead fingernail from your person .
Make a tasty trade and never look back Mikey, ever
haha I’ve made a flurry of trades in the first week. I should have named my team “Town Bicycle”
Hi Mike,
Longer post and question(s)-with it being the offseason (and pre-winter meetings) I figured this would be the best time to ask something this long. Love your work, btw!
I’m in a 10-team dynasty points league that heavily favors SP. 31 roster spots and 8-man prospect rosters (you can trade for more slots-which I have-to hold guys in-season). My team is coming out of a quick rebuild and i’m hoping for one more season of ‘just playing’ and having something competitive next year.
I have several high upside SP (stroman, t. walker, mccullers, salazar, wheeler, etc) and am solid at 1b (abreu, hosmer), 3b (arenado, machado), and ok in the OF (puig, dickerson, conforto, gomez). MI is weaker. Minors keepers are Judge, Mazara, Devers, and either Winker or Manea. I have three early first round picks in our minors draft that’ll include all international guys, guys drafted last year, and some established prospects (IMO best being matz, reyes (stl), de leon, snell, o. arcia)
2 questions:
1. My thoughts are to go after more SP with those first rounders and see if I can get three of the pitchers listed above. Do any guys just drafted belong in the conversation with those guys?
2. Right now, draft picks are less expensive and I may be able to get another early 1st rounder without giving up too much. Is there anyone from last year’s draft that you’d aggressively pursue given the roster I described above?
Sorry for the long post and thanks in advance! (any other opinions would be great too).
Matt
thanks!
1. you could make a case for Fulmer if you’re going that route
2. Swanson and Rodgers would help your MI depth. But Orlando Arcia is worth pursuing for that as well, and he’s got the 2016 ETA to boot. Not as much upside as the recent draftees, but he’s going to help your roster more right now.
Thanks, man. I’ll look into those SS-is Hosmer or Mccullers worth giving for one of those two (hopefully, there’d be more coming back along with the pick)?
no problem, hmmm yeah I mean if you have depth to trade from with Hosmer to go get an MI, sure. I’d shop Hoz around a bit
The league has a 1b, 3b, and CI slot-I have Abreu, Machado, and Arenado so I’ll pretty comfy with trading Hosmer. He’s just a UTIL guy for me going forwards-appreciate the opinions!
no problem
The 560th best guys on the player rater last year were guys like Jimmy Paredes and James McCann. No offense to either of those fine young gentlemen, but I can’t imagine keeping them over the lottery ticket that Otani represents. Obviously I haven’t seen the rest of your roster, but if you aren’t planning a run at a title in the next couple years I doubt you even have 10 guys on your roster with more 2019 upside than Otani (much less 28 guys).
Plus with 20 industry folks in the league, there’s bound to be 3 or 4 that have a mancrush on him and would take him off your hands if you want to bail in 2017…
@Running Frog: Or was the whole post an elaborate humblebrag just to point out that “Nah nah nah nah nah nah. I have Otani and you don’t!”?
Because if it was? Hats off to you. Personally I am totes jealous but we aren’t allowed to draft NPB players in my league :(
haha I wish it was, but I legit have no idea what to do with this guy. You make a good argument to keep him though. It’s a little bit like they handed the keys to an F1 car to the guy who drives Grave Digger. Cool car man, but can it crush stuff?
The previous owner, from the looks of the roster, built the team around high-upside pitching prospects. Nothing wrong with that, but it’s the exact opposite of my style. Luckily the league is active so by dealing arms out like candy I’ve been able to beef up my bats.
I dig Otani, and I think if I’m only going to keep a couple of arms, he’s one that I really want to consider carefully. Do I protect a safer low-ceiling guy like Wisler and try to flip him midseason or do I sit on Otani like a mother hen and hope he posts quicker than projected. Right now I’m leaning Otani.
@Mike: Hold. I mean three years isn’t even that long if he’s good. Who cares whether he’s in your lineup or not? A guy like Scherzer wasn’t a star until he was 28? Also, he’s going to hold his value, putting up crazy numbers against that competition. It’s not like he can get moved up to AAA and have a bad stretch and lose value. Any time there’s news about the posting system, someone will want to trade for him.
right on…that’s a good argument to keep him. Thanks!
@Mike: drat, we can draft anybody we want (starts Jan 3rd), but if said guy doesn’t make opening day rosters we only get a next year compensatory 5th rounder for him. so no dice on this guy for me.
@goodfold2: no, found out better, whatever pick we wasted with a guy who doesn’t sign by opening day, we get a compensatory directly after whatever pick it was, so 1.07 becomes 1.07a in 2016 if anyone used 1.07 in 2015 on a guy who didn’t sign by opening day.
nice…I’d say there’s 0.001% chance of him signing by opening day though
@Mike: this probably applies much more to other guys of course.