Well, it’s been another rough week on the injury front — I don’t know about you, but I’m in a pretty frustrated place given that we still have a week left in August. The Austin Riley, Ketel Marte, and Zach Eflin IL trips, were, I’m afraid, the nails in the coffin for a couple of my teams. I can only hope there are a few of you out there reading this that still have a team in the thick of a fantasy pennant race. And even if you don’t, this is the time of year when you may as well get some early draft prep for the following season. This can be especially true in deep leagues, where the 24th and 25th men on rosters who are performing surprisingly well now may be next year’s valuable late round sleepers. For now, let’s take a look at a handful of players whose CBS ownership has increased significantly of late, but are still under 20% owned and thus still in some deep league conversations, going from most to least owned in each league:
AL
Shay Whitcomb (from 4 to 19% owned in CBS leagues this past week). Whitcomb made his MLB debut for the Astros this week, filling in at third for an elbow-hurt Alex Bregman. Whitcomb also qualifies at short in many leagues and was having a monster season at triple A with major production in every one of the 5×5 roto categories. If he can carry some of that success over to his big league at bats, he’s versatile enough in the field that we may see him stick around for a while regardless of how healthy Bregman is, and he’s certainly a player to keep an eye on in terms of future shares as well.
Edwin Uceta (2 to 15%). Uceta’s ownership climbed in a hurry thanks to the fact that he received the first save opportunity for the Rays after Pete Fairbanks hit the IL, and successfully converted by getting four outs to close the game without allowing a hit or a walk. We’ll have to assume that the Rays will go back to their closer-by-committee roots with Fairbanks down, but Uceta is certainly worth a look for now. Looking at his numbers, it shouldn’t be a surprise that he’s found his way into high leverage in Tampa: in spite of his below average velocity by today’s standards, he has an otherworldly 0.90 ERA and 36/4 K/BBs in his 30 innings this year.
Will Wagner (7 to 12%). Wagner has been in the Blue Jays’ starting lineup at second base more often than not since his August 12th promotion, and so far has rewarded the team’s faith that he was ready for the show. While he’s not exactly piling up the counting stats in his first 24 at bats (no homers or steals, with 4 RBI and 2 runs scored), he has managed to shoot out of the gate with a .417 average in that tiny sample size. Wagner is 26 but boasts an intriguing .297 average/.402 OBP in his minor league career (1066 at bats), with 25 homers and 22 steals over that time. Should probably also mention that he’s Billy Wagner’s kid, since things like that are often of interest to folks.
Ramon Urias (2 to 3%). Our AL list is rounded out by a generally off the fantasy radar veteran in Urias, but since going from 2 to 3% owned is in fact a 50% ownership increase, I thought we’d check in to see what was behind the bump. It’s all about the playing time, I guess, as Urias has gotten a boatload of it of late. He qualifies at 2B and 3B in most leagues, and has also appeared in a couple games at first this season. He’s not going to run and the power is of course limited at best, but he’s the classic deep-league fill in who could help you with a few counting stats without hurting your average.
NL
Valente Bellozo (8 to 17%). I’ve grabbed Bellozo in an NL-only league, and even after doing so am still not sure there’s anything to see here… but we are in major ‘beggars can’t be choosers’ territory at this point in the deep-league season. He’s one of those guys who doesn’t have a great K rate but seems to constantly be able to induce weak contact. So far it’s working, as he’s kept his ERA/WHIP at 2.45/1.06 in his six starts, two of which have resulted in Ws for him. This profile is one that could lead to several more appearances where he keeps up similar numbers, or one or two where he gets absolutely shellacked, so if you chose to roll with him as I’ve done, I’d hope for the best but prepare for the worst.
Porter Hodge (3 to 10%)/Jorge Lopez (1 to 8%). Hodge and Lopez have both been getting scooped up as owners searching for saves have zeroed in on the Cubs bullpen after the DFA of Hector Neris. I don’t want to say that this season feels like it’s going on forever since I know I’ll be desperately missing regular-season baseball by around October 3rd… but I had completely forgotten that it was Lopez who this season was released by the Mets, after his controversial glove-throwing/post game interview incident. Anyway, I read a few takes that felt Lopez would get handed saves based on experience alone (and the fact that he got a save recently when Neris was unavailable, with Hodge pitching the 8th). Hodge, though, has spectacular numbers this year and successfully converted a save a few days ago, and I’m pretty sure I’ve never seen him throw his glove into the stands. So, he may be the guy to own, or this may be a fluid situation for a while.
David Peralta (2 to 8%). I was surprised to see Peralta pop up on my ‘most productive free agents over the last few weeks’ list in a mixed league, but his ownership increase makes it clear that others are also taking notice of his solid play of late for the Padres. I think we all know at this point what we’re getting here, which is a solid-at-times hitter who currently has an opportunity for a decent number of at bats on a very good offensive team. Whether he’ll reward you with a few games of decent production with some runs, RBI, and maybe even a homer — or an 0-for-the-week — will depend on your timing, I suppose.
Weston Wilson (0 to 2%). How can we not close with Wilson, who had this past week’s ultimate deep league performance as he hit for the cycle for the Phillies while being 0% owned in fantasy? That huge game popped him up to 2% ownership, as he continues to over perform with a .362 average in 47 at bats on the year. Yes, he has nowhere to go but down, and Austin Hays, whose hamstring injury gave Wilson an opportunity in the first place, should be ready to return soon. But given how many of the Phillies hitters are scuffling right now, we’ll see if Wilson can force the Phillies to keep him on the roster as he continues to try to take advantage of his playing time.
As we near the end of the year and if we are not in the money we search for “keepers”
Given that there are projections that can produce a $ amount fpr 2025 Is there a formula or number game one can play that helps discern if a $1 Schwellenbach is a better keeper than a $30 Bobby Witt. Factors: hitter vs pitcher, % of total salary, difference between Rudy’s $ minus salary (or do you divide) Ideas? Theories?
Dart Boards?
Hey Richard! Honestly, I think everything you’re spelling out here is exactly what makes deep keeper leagues the very most challenging thing in fantasy sports. There are just SO many layers, first and foremost being how different every league and its rules and categories and parameters are. Then, of course, even if you can figure out the “right” math, there’s the issue of actually predicting players’ future value correctly… and that’s before you factor injuries and such in. So, for me, this time of year is the beginning of throwing everything you can at the wall and just hoping something sticks by some point in 2025. I will say that, with my more successful keeper teams, they have featured a combination of the expensive-but-still-a-relative-bargain Witt types plus the $1 bargains (as long as they are not roster cloggers… sometimes leaving that space open is more valuable than what the cheap player will give you!) So I’d say if you have at least one true anchor, then throw in a few cheap up-and-comers, that’s a good start… and after that I’m all in on the dart board plan!!