No doubt you’ve heard the old expression, “It’s better to be lucky than good”. Today we’re going to take a look at one of the biggest areas of luck in the Razzball Commenter Leagues, “win luck”. There’s no doubt it takes some luck to win a fantasy baseball league. Injury luck is probably the biggest factor in winning a league. Mike Trout owners can relate right now I’m sure. As good a manager as we think we are, if your number one pick goes down for the year, you’re going to be at a disadvantage. That’s just common sense. “Win luck” is another area that is seemingly out of our control. Let’s face it, wins are brutal. I’m a big proponent of the mantra, “Make your own luck” and I certainly think that can be applied to “win luck”. “Win luck” is a term often tossed around to describe a team that is raking in the wins and/or a team that can’t seem to buy a win (most of my teams this year it seems). Can you make your own luck in regards to wins? Of course you can. You can stream those valuable middle relievers, especially the ones that frequently work multiple innings in the middle of games (Mychal Givens this year is a prime example). When a lead change occurs, these relievers are typically the benefactors. It’s no guarantee of course, but it can’t hurt your luck any. There are other ways to increase your win luck too. Let’s take a look at another big one as well as who is getting lucky and who got luck this week in the week that was, Week 9:
Another nice way to increase your win luck is to borrow a tip from the DFS side of the fantasy baseball landscape and utilize the Vegas odds. I know not everyone dabbles in DFS waters, but Vegas is a good companion there and in your season long leagues. Here’s how to use it. First, find yourself a website that lists all the Vegas consensus odds for the day. There are several out there, but I typically run with THIS ONE. Go ahead and bookmark that for future reference. If you aren’t familiar with Vegas terminology, you want to look at the “Money Line” which is the number greater than 100 with either a “+” or a “-” in front of it. This shows you how much you would have to bet on a team to win $100 (in the case of the negative amount) or how much you would win if you bet $100 on a team (in the case of the positive amount). The negative value indicates the favorite. So, if a team is a -140 favorite, you would need to bet $140 on them to win $100. If a team is +140, if you bet $100 on them, you would win $140. You can start to see where this might come in handy. Anything over about -140 is pretty good. Take a look at those odds, check to make sure the over/under (run total) for the game isn’t too huge, use some common sense, or at least some risk/reward management, and stream away. If you’re a really savvy roto player, you’ve purchased access to the Streamonator where you can filter by day and sort by wins. There you would see that Daniel Norris is the player with the best shot at a win today that is available in most RCLs. Comparing that to Vegas, Norris and the Tigers are -150 favorites today. However, the game has a 9 run over/under, which means I would likely pass on Norris. You get the point though. Chasing wins may seem to some like a fool’s errand, but you can take a couple steps to make your own luck.
Here’s a look at the best (“luckiest”) and worst (“unluckiest”) teams in the RCL universe in terms of win % (Wins/GS * 100):
LUCKY:
| Team | League | W | GS | Win % |
| Team Hayes | Take On M@ 2 | 26 | 23 | 113.043 |
| Gutterson’s Gravitas | We’re All Winners | 19 | 20 | 95 |
| M@ Tres | Take On M@ 3 | 24 | 27 | 88.889 |
| Ralph Your Moms Favorite Seat | Razzball Writers League | 32 | 36 | 88.889 |
| Hungry Hungry Pandas | DFSers Anonymous | 34 | 39 | 87.179 |
| Four Loko No Joko | Insert League Name Here | 33 | 38 | 86.842 |
| Mags Bennett Apple Pie | Master Batters | 22 | 26 | 84.615 |
| Word is Bond | Razzers Not Brazzers | 19 | 23 | 82.609 |
| Team BallBuster | Chicks dig the deep Razzballing! | 18 | 22 | 81.818 |
| Razz too | EuroRazzball2017 | 21 | 26 | 80.769 |
UNLUCKY:
| Team | League | W | GS | Win % |
| Mr.Loverocket’s Bakery | Razzmonsters | 15 | 67 | 22.388 |
| Team Dalmore | Show Me The malamoney | 17 | 68 | 25 |
| The Big Hurt | The Pete Rose Integrity Society | 16 | 63 | 25.397 |
| Over-nite Sensation | The Pete Rose Integrity Society | 18 | 70 | 25.714 |
| Diamond Dogs | My Nightly Fantasy | 23 | 85 | 27.059 |
| Philadelphia Beer Bellies | It’s Time For Dodger Baseball!! | 18 | 66 | 27.273 |
| JOBU Cerrano | Straight Cash Homie | 16 | 58 | 27.586 |
| Sons of Pitches | EuroRazzball2017 | 18 | 64 | 28.125 |
| Shove it up Yoenis | Jobu Needs A Refill | 29 | 103 | 28.155 |
| Electric Thunder | BigThreeSports + Razzball = Love | 20 | 71 | 28.169 |
I had to institute some sort of a GS limit here. When a team has 10 GS and 15 Wins, it doesn’t really tell us much. We actually have a team with ZERO Games Started! They broke my math with their 19 Wins. So, my very fair limit was 2 starts per week, 18 GS. You can see Emm Strudel biding his time and racking up middle relief wins, he currently is the only qualifying team with more wins than GS. M@ has another near perfect team with 24 wins in 27 GS. Prospector Ralph is in the mix as well with 32 in 36. All of these teams have fairly low GS numbers, which makes sense. The Beastman is the only team in the top 20 for win % with 50 or more GS. He has 37 Wins for a nice even 74% win rate. The next on the list is Prospector Ralph’s ECFBL team which has 40 Wins in 57 GS, good for just a tic over 70%.
On the low side we have Mr.Loverocket’s Bakery with just 15 lonely wins. I have to say, the low side is almost as impressive as the high win rates. If you were trying to stream 67 starts, you think you could fall into 15 wins. That’s “good” for a 22% win rate. Yikes. The most impressive of the list though is Shove it up Yoenis who has 103 Games Started and yet has less wins (29) than Ralph’s Writer’s League team (32) that has only used 36 GS. Also of note, just like Pete Rose, the league named in his honor also can’t catch a break. That league features two of the unluckiest teams in the RCLs. Coincidence?
How’s your win luck been this year? Care to vent in the comments? I’ll be your shoulder to cry on. Feel free to share your tips on chasing wins or if you think it’s a total crapshoot as well.
Each week we’ll peek in at our resident ‘perts to see who is laying claim to best “expert” RCLer in the land. We’ll take notes, check the standings and generally stalk them. The heading is also hyperlink, so feel free to follow along as we go.
Enough about Grey, he has nowhere to go but down at this point. He’s still blowing the league away with over 100 roto points and a hearty 22.5 point lead on the next closest team (me). This week, let’s talk about Smokey. Smokey killed it this week jumping from 9th to 5th on the back of a 13.5 point gain and a week that darn near got him into the weekly leaderboard. Smokey cracked 23 dingers this week and had a great all-around week as well. With that jump he separated himself from the rest of the pack and now sits firmly amongst the contenders. Nice work Smokey!
On the other side of the coin we have Tehol. Tehol’s team is in freefall after the trade that sent George Springer and his 15 for 30 with 5 HRs week to Rudy along with Carlos Carrasco and Yasiel Puig for Giancarlo Stanton. In 42.1 IP this week Tehol managed an 8.50 ERA and 1.87 WHIP. Tehol got Mexicutioned this week along with poor starts from German Marquez and Amir Garrett. His team has turned on their GM and they lost a whopping 15 points this week as Tehol and company fell from 3rd to 7th in the standings. Better luck next week.
TOP 10
For those too lazy to check the MASTER STANDINGS, I present to you, the current top 10
| RK | TEAM | LEAGUE | RCL PTS | LG PTS | LG INDEX | MASTER PTS |
| 1 | Swamp Donkeys | Straight Cash Homie Standings | 103.5 | 111.5 | 100 | 95.5 |
| 2 | Rakers Nation | Rio Ruiz Super League Standings | 102.2 | 107.5 | 104 | 91 |
| 3 | Cram It | Sponge-worthy Anti-Dentites Standings | 100.7 | 108 | 101 | 92.3 |
| 4 | Rudy is Snooty | Take On M@ 3 Standings | 100.1 | 104.5 | 103 | 91.7 |
| 5 | Grey is Bae | Sons of Beddict Standings | 98.7 | 106 | 100 | 91 |
| 6 | Returning Champ | The Giant and the Jew Standings | 98.6 | 104.5 | 102 | 89.8 |
| 7 | Team Dingerz | Daniel Murphy’s Porn Stash Standings | 98.2 | 107.5 | 99 | 90.1 |
| 8 | Team Albright | Razzball ‘Perty ‘Perts Standings | 97.2 | 101 | 104 | 87.2 |
| 9 | Hollywood Knights | My Nightly Fantasy Standings | 97.2 | 101.5 | 103 | 89 |
| 10 | South Side Hitmen | Von Hayes and Confused Standings | 97.1 | 104 | 100 | 90.4 |
The robots have fallen! Our human troops have stormed the top 5 and a trio of flesh and blood managers now occupy the first three spots in the Master Standings. The Swamp Donkeys put together one heck of a week and jumped from 6th overall to the top spot. Mad Beach Bums (Rakers Nation) and Cram It still sit in 2nd and 3rd respectively, albeit, ahead of the robots now. The bots had a big slip this week with former #1, Rudy is Snooty, falling to 4th and former #4, Grey is Bae, falling to 5th. Returning Champ and Grey hold serve this week as Team Dingerz jumps from 9th to slide between the two into 7th place overall. Hollywood Knights move from 10th to 9th as FIP U Guessed it dips out of the top 10 this week and South Side Hitmen move in.
TRADES
All the trades that have gone down in the past week. Public ridicule is not only allowed, but encouraged.
| DATE | LEAGUE | DETAILS |
| 6/3/2017 | Man on Third One Out | Team Simmons traded Jonathan Villar to Squiggle-eyed Bandits for Wil Myers |
| 6/3/2017 | Take on the Jay 5 | I wanna take you 2 a Gleyber traded Starling Marte & Wade Davis to Fake News Bears for Melky Cabrera, Bradley Zimmer & Kyle Hendricks |
| 6/3/2017 | Jay’s here until Football Starts | Orange face traded Aaron Judge, Wil Myers & John Lackey to Taipei Betel Nut Girls for Paul Goldschmidt & Alex Wood |
| 6/1/2017 | My Nightly Fantasy | Chicago Mark traded A.J. Pollock to Key West Tinker for Justin Bour & Gerrit Cole |
| 6/1/2017 | My Nightly Fantasy | Key West Tinker traded Addison Reed to 1 Darwinium for George Springer |
| 6/1/2017 | Jay’s here until Football Starts | BackBroke Valley traded Eduardo Rodriguez & David Robertson to Taipei Betel Nut Girls for Yonder Alonso & Nomar Mazara |
| 5/31/2017 | BigThreeSports + Razzball = Love | Goo Goo Dahls traded Mike Trout to Lance Razzball for Michael Conforto & Bradley Zimmer |
| 5/30/2017 | High House Beddict | Venezuela Alarm Clocks traded Gregory Polanco & German Marquez to Texas Flood for Avisail Garcia & Aroldis Chapman |
After a monster, 19 trade week last week, we’re back to a much more manageable 8 trade week this time around. Lance already broke his trade down HERE, so need to dive into that anymore, besides to say, good work Lance!
Speaking of good work, Key West Tinker got it done this week. They traded a closer, a waiver wire corner man and a struggling starter (that I dropped in my RCL, good bye Gerrit!) for two potential top 15 outfielders in George Springer and AJ Pollock. Wow!
Orange Face made out like a bandit as well, stealing Paul Goldschmidt and Alex Wood for Aaron Judge and Wil Myers.
WEEKLY LEADERS
The best of the best from the week that was.
R – 68 – # Sozo (Cougs R Us)
HR –27 – Joe Buck Yourself (Mega League), Highland Homers (Muscle Car Fanatics) & Milwaukee Beers (La Cheesearie)
RBIs – 75 – The Great Knoche (Daniel Murphy’s Porn Stash)
SB – 16 – Oz Otis (Master Batters)
AVG – .344 – Millville Meteors (Take On M@ 3)
K – 138 – Calgary Cannons (My Nightly Fantasy )
W – 8 – 8 Teams Tied
SV – 15 – Grey is Bae (Sons of Beddict)
ERA (Min. 40 IP) – 1.58 – WarDam Fantasy (Razzers Not Brazzers) (in 40 IP)
WHIP (Min. 40 IP) – 0.70 – WarDam Fantasy (Razzers Not Brazzers) (in 40 IP)
Three teams took down the previous weekly HR record of 26 with 27 dongs this week. Frequent Commenter and RCL vet, Great Knoche, put himself into the weekly record books as well besting the RBI record by 1. Nice work Knoche!
Last week wasn’t the last we saw of Calgary Cannons as they became the first team to top the 180 GS mark with 184 GS. The next closest team is Team Corkill of We’re All Winners who currently has 136 GS. The Cannons surpassed the limit in style on Saturday streaming Rich Hill, Randall Delgado, Tyler Chatwood and Edinson Volquez’s no-no. Not too shabby. It earned the Cannons one more week in the record books as they can now focus on middle relievers to help bring down that 4.117 ERA and 1.329 WHIP as well as add to the 67 Wins.
TEAM OF THE WEEK
Our weekly shout out to the team that killed it the previous week.
Team: Mount Fupa Squat Cobblers
League: Smokey Joe’s Chamber of Death
Stats: H/AB: 97/303, AVG: .320, R: 54, HR: 24, RBI: 71, SB: 5
IP: 79.2, ERA: 2.82, WHIP: 1.02, K: 80, W: 6, SV: 5
Summary: I believe these are the same Squat Cobblers that relocated from Hoboken last year to Mount Fupa this season. The new location is treating them well apparently, as they are leading their league by 11 points and topping 100 roto points in the process. The Squat Cobblers are only missing double digit roto points in two categories, SBs (5) and WHIP (9). The Cobblers drafted 12th and went with a 1-2 of Miggy and Correa. Springer in the 4th round was the real gem of the draft though as well as a big reason for TOW honors this week. Carlos Correa’s 4 HRs and 12 RBIs didn’t hurt matters any, nor did the amazing Friday of 8 HRs and 23 RBIs. The Cobblers even left Justin Smoak and his HR and 3 RBIs on the bench Friday! Like many smart RCLers, the Cobblers streamed the trio of Rockies pitchers as they headed into Petco this weekend. Them, along with a brilliant start by Ariel Miranda set the Cobblers up nicely pitching-wise. Quite the week. Keep up the good work Cobblers!
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