The fantasy baseball season has officially kicked off and we have real, live draft data to sift through.  Numbers nerds, assemble! We have spreadsheets, charts and ADP, oh my! It was a busy first week here at Razzball Commenter Leagues HQ, but I’ve gone through each league that has drafted and added their drafts to a master spreadsheet in order to calculate RCL ADP.  We’ve had sixteen leagues draft already, so there’s plenty of numbers to look at. The first week wasn’t always smooth with a few RCLs not filling to the required twelve managers, but drafting anyway. We even had one draft start with ten managers and finish with eleven!  The managers, they’re multiplying! As with any changes in life, bumps and hiccups are to be expected. If you are in one of the leagues with too few managers, you are welcome to play the league out, that’s your call, however the stats unfortunately will not count towards to the RCL Master Standings.  In the future, if you notice your league is close to drafting but someone has dropped out, leaving you short a manager hit us up on Twitter: @Razzball or @MattTruss and let us know. You can also leave a comment in Grey’s most recent post and/or invite a friend to join. I know, sacrilege to tell your fantasy baseball friends you read Razzball, but sharing is caring.  Speaking of sharing, jump below and I’ll share with you a fancy RCL ADP spreadsheet for your perusing pleasure…

THE ORIGINAL RAZZ LEAGUES

Before we jump into the RCL data I want to first invite you all to participate in some old school Razzball fun, the Razz leagues.  OG Razzballers will recall a time when these leagues ran. I believe they were on Yahoo! back then, but this year they’ve gotten a makeover and with the help of VinWins and The Big Yabu there are three leagues running on FanTrax.  What is a Razz league? Well, do remember back to your home poker game where you played a game called “5 Card Razz” or something equivalent? In this game you tried to get the worst poker hand possible; no pairs, no flushes, not even any aces.  This is the same concept. You want to draft a squad that will perform the worst but still hold onto their starting jobs in order to pile up ABs and IPs. Mike Scioscia would kill this game! Here is the breakdown:

Draft 18 players that will pile up the AB and IP, but perform poorly.

9 Hitters: C,1B,2B,3B,SS,OF,OF,OF,UTIL
5 Starting Pitchers
4 Bench/2 DL

SCORING: Hitters: AB +2 / K +2 / H -3 / R -4 / HR -6 / RBI -4
               Pitchers: IP -1 / K -1 / HR +4 / L +8 / ER +1.5 / H +1 / BB +1

Pickups limited to 25 for season.

Weekly lineups, which can be set before the first game Monday.

Leagues are 100% free and should be pretty low maintenance.  We may even coax VinWins out of retirement to do the occasional check-in.  To join, simply click one of the links below:

Saturday, March 17, 2 PM ET: Razz I

Tuesday, March 20, 8 PM ET: Razz II

Tuesday, March 20, 10 PM ET: Razz III

May the best worst manager win!

DRAFT TRENDS

We’ve got sixteen leagues worth of draft data to peek at. Being first to draft means first to be criticized, so we’ll dive into the numbers and see what’s going on in the early draft season.

THE FIRST PICK OF THE 2018 FANTASY BASEBALL DRAFT IS…

Mike Trout ^16…well, that’s not very exciting is it?  Let’s take a look at number two instead. Jose Altuve leads the charge there going second overall in twelve of the sixteen leagues.  In the four leftover leagues we had one Mookie Betts, one Paul Goldschmidt and two Corey Klubers.  Kluber is a direct result of autodrafters not setting their pre-rankings. I will warn you once more, if you might miss the first round or two of your draft, set your top players or be doomed by the FanTrax “score” rankings.  You will draft six pitchers in your first six picks and nobody wants that.

WE DON’T NEED NO STINKIN’ NFBC ADP

We’ve got RCL ADP!  Here’s a list from our sixteen league sample of some guys I’m lusting for this year and some general notes.  If there’s an ADP you’re curious about for my next update, fire away and I’ll add them to the chart next time out.  This time around I decided to look at some of the kids everyone is excited to draft as well as some soon to be AARP members.

PLAYER ADP HI LO DIFF
Trea Turner 5.44 3 9 6
Aaron Judge 22 15 29 14
Cody Bellinger 23.19 14 33 19
Luis Severino 37.38 28 45 17
Rhys Hoskins 39.13 30 55 25
Andrew Benintendi 41.31 34 53 19
Shohei Ohtani 72.94 57 93 36
Luis Castillo 75.31 56 97 41
Rafael Devers 82.06 72 95 23
Ronald Acuna 86.25 47 117 70
Ozzie Albies 106.31 80 137 57
Ian Happ 109.69 68 131 63
Yoan Moncada 120.13 91 178 87
Manuel Margot 124.81 108 145 37
Trey Mancini 136.63 92 187 95
Paul DeJong 152.38 121 183 62
Tim Anderson 180.31 119 250 131
Josh Bell 184.56 161 226 65

Trea Turner falling to nine is a travesty.  I am ridiculously jealous of whoever landed Trea there.

Bellinger has been sneaking into some second rounds.  I think I’m all set with Cody there, but the third round I could listen.  I’ve found that if I don’t land a 1B in the first 3 rounds I’m waiting a long time before nabbing one and they all have warts.

Benny Beastmode isn’t making it out of the fourth round, so if you want him, that’s where you need to get him.  I find myself wanting to draft approximately 30 OFs this year, so picking my spots is a bit of a challenge. Sadly, I’ve found myself passing on Andrew.

Ohtani seems to be going around pick 60-70 in most drafts I’ve been in.  I haven’t had a chance to land him yet this year, but really would like to take at least one shot on the kid.

Devers, Acuna and Albies might be the reason I’ve missed on Ohtani too, these three have been my wheelhouse in drafts so far.  It’s risky, but boy will it be fun to watch!

Trey Mancini is one of the 1B I’ll look towards if I miss a top one, but pinning down where to draft him is clearly no easy feat.

No one seems to know where to go get Tim Anderson either.  I would split the difference and look around pick 180 if you need a speedy middle infidel.

Now, out with new, in with the old:

PLAYER ADP HI LO DIFF
Joey Votto 19.31 11 24 13
Josh Donaldson 30.56 26 35 9
Justin Verlander 32.38 12 52 40
Edwin Encarnacion 42.06 29 58 29
Zack Greinke 44.75 26 80 54
Robinson Cano 85.56 65 112 47
Andrew McCutchen 91.75 76 131 55
Miguel Cabrera 100.63 61 157 96
Ryan Braun 117.19 95 143 48
Adam Jones 146.88 129 171 42
Adrian Beltre 151.31 106 184 78
Johnny Cueto 158.94 123 196 73
Ryan Zimmerman 168.81 131 213 82
Jay Bruce 170.81 135 195 60
Evan Longoria 188.75 164 221 57

What am I saying, Joey Votto doesn’t age.

Third base is a tough position to punt this year it seems, but I’m still not taking many Josh Donaldson shares.

Verlander’s ADP will be a little juiced thanks to FanTrax’s “score”.

Since I have been the keeper of RCL data the past few seasons I have the historical ADP data.  It’s always nice to check back on last year and see where some of these guys were being drafted, compare it to this year and see if the rise/drop is warranted.

For instance, Zack Greinke was being drafted at 134 last year.  Remember, his velocity was down in spring and he was saying he didn’t have it anymore.  Sound familiar? He’s saying the same thing this year! No he’s being drafted 90 spots ahead though.

The biggest dip by far is Miggy, who was a borderline first rounder last year (ADP: 13) and now sits at an ADP of 100.  Unfortunately, I think that fall is warranted.

I have ended up with more shares of Ryan Zimmerman than I care to admit.  He was undrafted last season and is now going around pick 170. He’s fallen to me at pick 190ish and I’ve taken the bait.  Fingers crossed he’s got another magic season in him.

AT&T Park (and age) haven’t done McCutchen and Longoria’s ADPs any favors they have dropped 34 and 99 spots respectively.  On the other side of the ball, Johnny Cueto’s ADP has fallen 105 spots. I would definitely listen around pick 180 for a potential Cueto bounceback.

RCL ADP SHEET

If you made it this far, you earn a reward.  I told you I was a numbers nerd. Now you can take a look at any player you want as more and more data is collected.  I’ll be keeping that sheet up to date as I collect draft data, so bookmark it and check back often. Speaking of RCL drafts, join some leagues!

Want to be my Twitter pal?  That’s kinda creepy, but you can follow me here: @MattTruss

   
  1. Ken says:
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    Hey Matt, I was in the ill-fated RCL 35 that began with 10 managers, and then jumped to 11. I chose to drop out of the league, and was looking for Fantrax to credit the $10. Do you know if they will, or at least credit my account? Thanks.

    • VictoriaB

      VictoriaB says:
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      @Ken: Hey Ken! It was fun drafting with you, even if it was so chaotic ;-) Did you get a chance to look at the draft history — did you happen to notice that Domingo Santana was listed as first overall pick?! Haha!

      Anyway, just wanted to let you and everyone else who drafted in the craziness that was RCL #35 on Sunday afternoon (I don’t have any other way of getting hold of you guys except through here, so hope you’re reading): it sounds like that league is just going to be deleted, because it was so messed up, so you probably DON’T want to go and re-pay the $10 Fantrax is asking for via the home page for that league.

      And yep, Grey’s right, you should be able to collect your $10 refund from Fantrax via the “My Account” page.

      Now let’s go join another league!

      • VottomanEmpire says:
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        @VictoriaB: Join the $20 RCL tonight! We are 4 owners short.

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        Get in tonight’s league if you can make it, only one spot needed

      • Ken says:
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        @VictoriaB: I did join the $20 league drafting tonight, and saw there was a $10 credit on my account. I’m thinking of Sunday as a very good mock draft:)

  2. J.D. says:
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    Want an RCL with higher stakes? Up for a $100 challenge? Of course you are.

    The ‘Night of the Living Zombinos’ legacy RCL has a few spots open!

    Our payouts are: $700, $350, $150. (Buy-in: $100.)
    Our draft is: This Sunday, the 18th, at 1:00pm EST / 10:00am PST

    It’s a private league, so email me at: [email protected] to secure a spot! And we’ll update the spreadsheet on this page once we’re full.

    This is our sixth year on Razzball, and this article has me stoked for another season! :)

  3. MattH says:
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    Nice work, Truss! Can’t wait to draft Trea Turner in the 9 spot. I joined the Razz III. Sounds like fun.

    • MattTruss

      MattTruss says:
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      Awesome! I think that’s the one I’m in too. Good luck getting Trea at 9 if I’m ever in front of you, that’s criminal!

      • The Great Knoche says:
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        @MattTruss: Are you taking him at 1 in RCL?

        • VinWins

          VinWins says:
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          @The Great Knoche: He has to now, he’s committed.

        • MattTruss

          MattTruss says:
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          Well maybe not @ 1….

        • J.D. says:
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          @The Great Knoche: Great Knoche! The NotLZ RCL is still in need of a couple skilled hands. The more skilled the better! Any chance I can entice you to play in a SECOND league with me this year. (Picks will come much faster than in our NFBC. ;). Trust me, the competition is tough, but it looks like you’re more than able. If you’re interested, the info is in the post above, and the email is [email protected]. Thank you, sir.

  4. Foul balls says:
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    Rcl #21 draft date march 25 @ 8pm shows league is filled, but only 11 owners have joined. Any thoughts why?

  5. Tigres says:
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    I’m in the “original Razz” league #1 – looking forward to some excellent awfulness this year!

  6. Knocks says:
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    Can we trade our draft slot with someone else? (Interesting new feature with fantrax)

    • Knocks says:
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      @Knocks:

      I think that question made sense, but just to be sure. I pulled the No. 1 but would just as soon move down to No. 3. Is that okay while still being an RCL?

    • MattTruss

      MattTruss says:
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      I wouldn’t, just because I’m not sure that feature is available to everyone in the other RCLs

      • Knocks says:
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        @MattTruss:

        Okay. Not a problem. Was on the fence about doing it anyway. Thanks.

  7. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    Matt ,the RCL Originals league needs help,draft is set for tonight but only 6 of us signed up,not sure who is in charge but please let me no if i need to just drop out of this league,thanks

    • MattTruss

      MattTruss says:
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      Hank is running that show, I thought he said he only needed a couple. I think he should have commish privileges so he should be able to push the draft if needed. I pinged him anyway.

      • AL KOHOLIC says:
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        @MattTruss: thanks Matt

  8. Turd Ferguson says:
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    I have a number one waiver in my RCL. What should I save it for? In other leagues I save them for minor league call ups… but those guys are in the system already here. Is it only for players who get dropped by other teams? Or a potential mid season cubano import?

    • MattTruss

      MattTruss says:
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      Yup, it’s really just for drops, nothing special. I usually burn mine pretty damn quick in the RCLs…

  9. Fundle Bundle Life says:
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    for the poker comp what you are referring to is actually deuce to 7 lowball. there are 2 kinds of lowball
    1. deuce to 7 (also known as kansas city lowball). in that one ace is the worst (highest) card and straights/flushes actually HURT you. best hand is 7-5-4-3-2 (no flush)

    2. ace to give lowball. ace is the lowest card in the deck and straights and flushes don’t exist usually. to the best hand is 5-4-3-2-ace.

    razz is modernly known as the ace to five lowball version of 7 card stud, but of course could also be played as a 5 card game, or a draw version too.

    • MattTruss

      MattTruss says:
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      Sweet, clearly myself and the guys at my home poker game were playing a bastardized version of all 3 of these. No matter, it’s still fun to be worst!

      • Fundle Bundle Life says:
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        @MattTruss: should read “ace to FIVE” not give.

Comments are closed.