The MLB Draft is mere minutes away from starting as I begin this weekend’s missive, and I find myself pondering the unknowable magic of the thing itself. No other sport can boast the breadth and depth of this draft, even as they’ve shrunk it down to 20 rounds. Some years are fairly bereft of big league impact players, leaving precious few right answers atop the first round. The early returns on the 2025 class look less than inspiring, for instance. Washington’s number one overall pick SS Eli Willits looks good, and Pirates RHP Seth Hernandez looks like a potential star, but it’s hard to imagine anyone but Mariners LHP Kade Anderson making next year’s midsummer classic. And that’s fine. Totally normal.
We only have to track one year further back to see the impact of a draft that’s a standard deviation or two above normal. In 2024, the first round was full of right answers: Travis Bazzana (1st), Chase Burns (2nd), Nick Kurtz (4th), Jac Caglianone (6), JJ Wetherholt (7), Konnor Griffin (9), Braden Montgomery (12), Carson Benge (19), and Trey Yesavage (20) along with other great prospects we haven’t seen make the majors like Theo Gillen and Kaelen Culpepper. You didn’t need a first-rounder to make money either. The White Sox snagged 3B Caleb Bonemer at 43rd overall and starting second baseman Sam Antonacci at 140th. Cincinnati landed OF Mike Sirota at 87. Toronto drafted 3B Sean Keys at 125.
I’ll reiterate that this class was not normal, but it can also serve as a sign of our changing game. Players who get drafted this weekend will be starting for our fantasy teams sooner than would’ve once upon a time. The Royals just selected OF Zion Rose out of Louisville at sixth overall after the Pirates took LSU OF Derek Curiel at 5th. Both teams passed on high school shortstop Jacob Lombard. After the Curiel pick, the panel of commentators discussed drafting for need, something you almost never hear during the MLB draft unless it’s being dragged as the wrong way to do things. I don’t really think of it as drafting for need so much as valuing college baseball outcomes and experiences more than teams have typically done. The talent gap in pitching between high school and professional baseball is enormous. Playing college ball for a couple-few seasons gives guys a chance to fail and adapt and learn and gives MLB organizations a mountain of evidence when making these multi-million dollar decisions.
After a high school swing by the Orioles for Eric Booth Jr. at 7th overall, we went right back to major college hitters with Georgia Tech OF Drew Burress heading to the Athletics at 8th and Virginia OF AJ Gracia heading to Atlanta at 9th. Five outfielders in the top nine picks is odd, but that can happen when with so many college bats racing through the minors. Oh and here comes another major college bat with switch-hitting Tennessee shortstop Tyler Bell heading to Colorado with the 10th pick. In case you can’t tell, I like these college hitters. If you re-ran that 2024 class, where would Carson Benge go? Feels like that’s sort of what’s happening today. Eight college hitters in the top ten. One college pitcher. One high school bat selected by a team that has struggled to maximize their drafts.
Washington is next, and I think they’ll stop the slide of high school shortstop Jacob Lombard. If not, we might be living a new reality.
They took a college second baseman instead: Chris Hacopian from Texas A&M. Dude does not look like a second baseman. His position is hitter. The panel is leaning into this conversation about college as a developmental level for the pros now. Who knows if we’ll ever see another high schooler selected. Kidding, of course, but you simply can’t compare high school data to college data, in both quantity and quality.
Hey, here goes another high schooler to another team that struggles to draft well: Jared Grindlinger to Los Angeles of Anaheim. He was announced as an outfielder, but the thinking here is he might be developed as a two-way player or moved to the mound if the power doesn’t develop.
Another two high schoolers go next: Trevor Condon and Jacob Lombard, and we’re back to a more typical distribution of ages. Both these kids feel like nice values born from this college-centric approach to team building. The Marlins front office looked stoked to draft the hometown kid with big league bloodlines. Probably didn’t expect him to be on the board for them.
Arizona drafted Arkansas Catcher Ryder Helfrick next. His last name sounds like somebody’s grandma just swore for the first time this month. Great defender. The Rangers then landed another windfall-profit high schooler in LHP Gio Rojas. Great landing spot for him.
The next big moment happened at pick 20, when the Red Sox selected North Carolina shortstop Jake Schaffner, who MLB.com ranked the 75th overall and Baseball American ranked even lower. The Red Sox draft room looks weird to me, by the way. Most of these teams have a conference-room vibe arranged around a rectangle of tables in the middle so the people can see each other and perhaps even talk. Not Boston, who has their room set up like a computer programming class. Everyone is facing forward, living in their laptops. This is almost the exact opposite of when they “reached” for Nick Yorke in 2020. Yorke was a high school second baseman without a clear defensive future. Schaffner is a plus defensive shortstop from a major college program. This pick has good bones, is what I’m saying. I think he probably should’ve been ranked a little higher by the public-facing companies as opposed to being a big reach by Boston, at least in light of how the league is trending today. High school pitchers “fell” in general on day one, suggesting teams are moving toward risk-aversion on that demographic in ways that are reminiscent of how we play the dynasty game. There’s just so many things that can go wrong between high school and the majors, and we can do other things with those roster spots that help us pay for more proven pitching as needed.
Thanks for reading!
Hate to be that guy, but Tyler Bell went to Kentucky and is from Illinois. He’s not from Tennessee. I’m probably being pedantic, but it’s just a FYI
It was a weak HS class, not some sudden philosophical change by 30 teams all at once
Or, does NIL dilute the HS class?
I think there is a lot of allure to spending 3 years in university setting versus MiLB lifestyle while they develop, and if money is good then it’s a big draw for a list of these kids.
Much easier schedule, state of the art athletic facilities and trainers, housing & meals covered, and don’t forget the co-ed campus appeal.
Very enticing path for most HS kids
Any from this draft crack the top 50 prospects?
Cholo and Emerson are both top-50 guys for me, easily. Lackey could very well end up top-50, too. I also think Lombard has the tools to be top-50 but I see a LOT of Elijah Green in his swing. Unless he calms some of that swing and miss, he’s going to be a while.
Pretty weak draft for pitching?