The prospect ETA game is a tough one to gauge.  With injuries, uncertain Super Two dates, and varying front office opinions with regard to “readiness”, there are simply too many variables involved that are impossible to predict for.  When commenters task me with an ETA question, my answer is a guess, and I’m almost always way off.  Yet, people keep asking.  So, in an effort to put your impatient minds at ease, today we’ll be running though some notable ETA’s, and I’m going to get specific with my guesses.  If my usual vague “mid-season-ish” response is crap anyway, then why not pin these down to the day and spice things up?  Here we go:

Oscar Taveras, OF, Cardinals — ETA:  May 20th

Allen Craig, who’ll be asked to play right field most days, probably won’t make it through the first two weeks of April before landing on the DL.  News of an injury to Craig will send us all scurrying to the waiver wire to add Taveras, but the Cardinals will explore the possibility of using Jon Jay and Peter Bourjos as everyday guys before summoning Oscar.  Also feeding into this decision is the fact that Taveras, himself, has had a hard time staying healthy over the past year.  St. Louis will want to see a sustained stretch of healthy Triple-A production from their prized prospect before they’re comfortable using him in the bigs.  But when the calendar rolls into mid-May, and Craig (or Holliday, or Adams) is on the shelf, and the Cards are losing ground to the Pirates in the Central, the wait will be over.

Javier Baez, SS, Cubs — ETA:  May 2nd

With certain prospects, talent supersedes Super Two concerns.  That was the case with Bryce Harper and Jose Fernandez, and it could be the case with Oscar Taveras.  Javy Baez falls into that category too.  Baez will spend a month at Triple-A Iowa, and during that month, he’s going to punish baseballs.  He also might spend some time getting more comfortable at second base.  And when May comes around, and the weather begins to warm in Chicago, and Baez already has 10 long balls in Pacific Coast League play, the Cubs will stir up some excitement at Wrigley with a call-up of the extreme high-impact variety.

George Springer, OF, Astros — ETA:  June 24th 

The Astros are in rebuild mode, and they’ll continue their frugal ways until they’ve returned to relevance.  Being so, I expect Houston to be sensitive to Springer’s service time, leaving him in the minors until the presumed Super Two deadline has safely passed.  Late June figures to be a good guess on that end.

Archie Bradley, RHP, D’Backs — ETA:  June 9th

Arizona will wait as long as they can on Bradley, doing their best to bring him up after the Super Two window, but being a playoff hopeful, they won’t have the luxury of gauging that cutoff with the same caution as Houston.  In the meantime, Bradley will gain valuable developmental experience at Triple-A, where he’ll have the opportunity to refine his command versus seasoned upper levels hitters.  In Bradley’s case, I see a similar path the bigs as the one we saw with Gerrit Cole last summer.

Gregory Polanco, OF, Pirates — ETA:  July 18th

Having played in only 70 upper levels games, Polanco won’t be rushed to Pittsburgh.  The Pirates will get everything they can out of Jose Tabata for the first half of the season, allowing Polanco time to rack up some enormous MiLB numbers so that he may surface in the bigs with Puig-like confidence.  A call-up just after the All-Star break should give the 22-year-old sufficient time to find his comfort zone in the majors, and offer some serious contributions down the stretch and into the playoffs for the Pirates.

  1. marcus allen was good al says:

    Gausman? Stashed him in a lge too. Being redraft that makes it a lil less desirable

    • @marcus allen was good al: He’s the next man in should someone in that rotation go down… could be a week, could be a month or two… I think we see him in May…

  2. Troy: The Collector

    Troy says:

    Why would the cubs bring Baez up before early June? Doesn’t make sense with super 2. Not going to contend this year and honestly don’t think they want any of that kicking in til next season when they may actually have a decent team on the field. Also think they want to give him more then a month at 2nd before they bring him up. Someone I’m interested in is Micah Johnson, think well see him up at some point? Can’t possibly count on beckham even with he’s healthy at his point right?

    • @Troy: As mentioned, talent supersedes super 2 considerations in some cases, and I believe this is one of those cases… Baez is the highest ceiling prospect in the minors & if he performs nearly as well as I suspect he will, the Cubs will never let him get to an arbitration table before extending him… the extra year of team control would only serve as an insult to their young star were they to use it… this isn’t a run of the mill prospect, this is a superstar caliber talent, and the Cubs won’t keep him down in order to pinch pennies… Again, these are all guesses…

      • Troy: The Collector

        Troy says:

        @Scott Evans: yea I understand that also think the cubs aren’t really wanting to hand out tons of money at this point. Also don’t think he gets out to as good of a start as u think. But as u said it’s all guesses at this point. Good stuff as always scott

    • @Troy: As for Micah Johnson, I’m thinking 2015, but there’s a chance we’ll see him sooner…

  3. What about Buxton, is he coming up this year?

  4. costaricanchata says:

    give me your best guess on syndergaard , please .

    • J-FOH says:

      @costaricanchata: July on the conservative side and June on the optimistic side

    • matt h says:

      @costaricanchata: see Zach wheeler. Maybe even sooner than that.

      • J-FOH says:

        @Scott Evans: the Mets front office are a little weird… I right?

        • @J-FOH: they’re a little unpredictable, but they’ve done great w/ acquisition & development last few years

  5. Eddie the Mush says:

    Would you put a 2 year contract on Calhoun ($2) or Owings($0)?

      • Eddie the Mush says:

        @Scott Evans: Thanks. What about Rendon at $5? Good 2 year contract as well?

          • Eddie the Mush says:

            @Scott Evans: Standard 5X5 yes. It is between Rendon ar $5 or Minor at $19. Keep going back and forth. Gave a 2 year to Salazar at $17 and A. Bradley a 3 year at $1.

  6. Mike says:

    Interesting read…I know you have touched on it before, but any chance Cubbies promote Bryant in September?

    Also, Odor an option in Texas with Profar out?

    • @Mike: I’m less optimistic now than a week ago when Andrus was dealing with forearm tightness. Still going to keep him until I see how the Rangers MI looks over the first week or two.

    • @Mike: Yeah, I think Bryant gets a late season look… Odor could get a look second half if the Rangers are still a mess of injuries, but I don’t think they’d look to rush him…

  7. Trampled by donkeys says:

    Addison Russell

  8. Yescheese says:

    Great post Scott . Saw a bold prediction somewhere that Piscotty gets the call before Taveras, due to health and his great spring training.

    Last year, ~8 weeks was a long time to sit on Wil Myers in a three BN RCL, but I didn’t regret it!

    • @Yescheese: Possible on Piscotty, but not likely, IMO…

      Yeah, folks are facing the same conundrum w/ Springer this year, but should pay off again…

  9. Swfcdan says:

    Putting your head on the line now man, I like it!

    • Swfcdan says:

      @Swfcdan: And what about Taillon of the Bucs, similar timeframe to Bradley? Got him in my other keeper.

      Interested what position you think Javier (don’t call him Javy!) Baez will play once he reaches the show, 3rd more likely than 2nd?

      • @Swfcdan: Yes, Taillon mid/early June timetable… Javy more likely ends up long-term at 3B, but most direct route to playing time is at 2B…

    • @Swfcdan: I hope no one comes for my head if my guesses or wrong!

      • Swfcdan says:

        @Scott Evans: Ha, you can bet someone will!

        *Pictures Scott tied up in the Governors shed, The Walking Dead style, with zombies let loose on him*

          • Swfcdan says:

            @Scott Evans: @Scott Evans: If he does id hate to be the geeky scientist friend, when the Gov’s fantasy team takes an 0-fer one night…(haven’t reached the end of season 3 yet so no spoilers please).

            • @Swfcdan: Yeah, I don’t have any spoilers for ya… show kinda lost me…

  10. tj says:

    Raul mondesi, julio urias, justup katelander(upton/verlander love child) eta please?

    • @tj: Mondesi & Urias both could debut in second half of 2015… I don’t expect to see them before then…

  11. trick dad says:

    Do you think Baez plays 2b when he’s called up or pushes Castro to bench?

    • 2B seems more likely…

  12. Mike says:

    A non-fantasy related question (or gripe): During the next negotiations for the CBA, is there any chance MLB and the Union does away with this “Super 2” BS?

    • @Mike: I think they’ll take a long look at the possibility of reforming the rule… it’s better than it was a handful of years ago, but it still allows for too much penny-pinching exploitation…

  13. c0wfunk says:

    Read the post and then your cubs minor league preview :)

    I’m excited for Baez this summer. While you have out the super specific crystal ball : Do you see him making an immediate impact this summer or struggling out of the gates? I do have a spot I could stash him in but I do love to keep that open for streaming. When would it be safest to grab him by? End of April? Thanks!

    • @c0wfunk: He’s probably the best stash in the Minors right now, so adding him now would be perfectly fine in my eyes…

      • Spyre says:

        @c0wfunk: @Scott Evans:

        Would you drop Skaggs for him?
        H2H points, so I like my bench to contribute (normally maxxed out with pitchers

        • @Spyre: If you’re using Skaggs & he’s helping you win weeks now, then don’t drop him…

    • Swfcdan says:

      @c0wfunk: Yeah I think if anyone’s going to make a Puig-like impact, it’s this guy.

  14. RotisserieJedi says:

    Scott you big tease! You can’t do this to us! Do you know how many of us have been stashing Taveras on our bench for like the last 18 months? How we sheepishly grab Baez at the end of drafts, only to be heckled about “minor league” players? I hope you’re right Scott, I really do. Because I have Taveras, Baez, and Springer, in like every league with 5 bench slots or more. Heck Bradley’s and Polanco share the couch with Syndergaard in my NL-Only league. But for you to drop some MAY dates on us!? I’m getting hot and bothered! Nice work.

  15. Bruce says:

    What about Bundy, and in what role?
    Robert Stephenson up this year?

    • @Bruce: I doubt we see either in the bigs this year…

      • goodfold2 says:

        @Scott Evans: he’s the name going under radar due to not coming up yet.

          • goodfold2 says:

            @Scott Evans: stephenson. bundy’s name is bigger due to coming up last year (and being supposed huge call up earlier last year)

  16. Steve Stevenson says:

    In a 6×6 (OPS & QS) H2H, I’m using my 2 NA slots on Baez and Springer. Would you stash either Taveras or Bradley over Springer? My last OF slot is a Moss/Venable platoon, while my SP6 is Porcello.

    • @Steve Stevenson: No, I’d hold what you’ve got… Taveras & Bradley *could* arrive sooner than Springer, but that’s no sure thing, whereas Springer is a virtual lock to arrive in June same way Wil Myers was last year… I see him as a safer stash at this point…

  17. JoeyBelle says:

    Who will have better end of year numbers(earn more): Erlin, Wisler or Josh Johnson?

  18. Kobayashi Maru says:

    I was offered Kipnis for Gomez post draft. I have Yelich/Leonys as my Util/bench. Take it?

  19. Alky Sobrera says:

    This post = things that make you go mmmmmmmmm!

  20. Completely off topic “Newbie Question” Concerning pitchers, are all innings created equal? What I’m asking is: Say my pitcher (a reliever probably) gives it up like a $2 whore, has an ERA of 100+ after this fiasco, do all the innings from all the pitchers on your team get added together? Or do the totals of the say 12 pitchers get added together as a whole? I hope I’m asking this clearly. I guess I want to know if your reliever ratio stats count the same as a starter who pitched many more innings, or are the reliever stats more valuable?

    • Alky Sobrera says:

      The ratio stats per pitcher aren’t used in the team calculation. Your team ratios are total earned runs allowed/total innings pitched. Same with WHIP. So it’s not an average of all your pitchers’ ERAs and WHIPs. I’m a bit confused by the wording, but does that help?

      • @Alky Sobrera: I don’t think I stated it very clearly. Thanks for your response. So you’re saying that the total runs given up by pitchers are added together at the end of the week to calculate your team ERA? And for WHIP, all the innings are added up as are walks hits and innings pitched. That would make all innings be created equal.

    • Alky Sobrera says:

      A second reading has me thinking I may not have addressed your actual question. If that’s the case, if you could reword it, I may be able to help.

  21. The Governor says:

    I don’t read razzball. But, if I did, I would have to say that posts like this are a fantastic idea!

    • The Thumb says:

      @The Governor: You should probably read Razzball then

      • RotisserieJedi says:

        @The Thumb: Um, I’m gonna go out on a limb and speculate that there might have been a bit of tongue lodged near the cheek there.

  22. Big Al says:

    Like Taveras and Baez a lot. Since Taveras is having so much trouble staying healthy do think Piscotty will get the call first if there is a early injury to a cards outfielder. Piscotty had a great spring training camp is MLB ready too ? Also on a side note, I’ve played H2H in a nasty leagues for 5 years and dove into 3 RCL this year. Can you give me a little insight and strategy tips on 2 things. first on maximum 180 games started. On a average week how many starts should my starters start. 7 to 8 per week or 30 per month ???? not sure please advise. Also 1000 minimum IP. What exactly does that mean ? I have a general idea on both of these ,but do not want to run into trouble at the end of the year. Thanks in advance for your help.

    • @Big Al: It’s possible piscotty gets called up before Oscar, but unlikely. In a roto, make sure you use all your innings. I always am more conservative w/ my starts in the beginning of the year until my core SPs have identified themselves, then I get more aggressive with the SP usage as the season wears on. Important to fill your IP @ reach 1000 in order to maximize opportunity at counting stats.

      • Big Al says:

        @Scott Evans: Thanks Scott that makes good sense on letting your staff sort out and get your core guys in there every week. Then I would guess you keep track of the starts and do the math to keep from going over. Once you get to 180 your done for the year right ?

        • Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:

          @Big Al: once you hit yr starting 180 games they are over, but you can (and should) at that point find lots of RP and long inning RP (think Collmenter) to fill out rest of innings.

        • @Big Al: There should be a calculator on your team page, and yeah, I just keep an eye on it daily…

          • Big Al says:

            @Scott Evans: Ok I’ll look for that.

  23. costaricanchata says:

    thoughts on when heaney will be up ?
    @ 28 , koehler is way too old for that rotation .

    • @costaricanchata: Miami is unpredictable with their call-ups. Heaney could be up in a month, or he could be up in august. My guess: June/July

  24. Matt says:

    Hak-Ju Lee ETA?

    • @Matt: that one is opportunity-based, and it won’t necessarily be an impactful arrival for fantasy… I’ll say July, though…

      • Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:

        @Scott Evans: i thought he was supposed to be fairly valuable in average and steals?

        • @Aubrey Plaza’s Pillow: that’s his long-term upside, but not really a high impact guy in either of those categories, either… much better real life prospect thanks to his defensive skill set…

          • goodfold2 says:

            @Scott Evans: good thing i’ll only need to use him in 30 teamer. he probably is my 2nd best MI prospect even there with these being the others.
            gumbs/lee/d.robertson/rosario/salcedo. In that same league what do you think about this trade. finished last night
            my j.johnson 2.625 million this year (i went to extend him for 1 year at 6 million more and noticed he’s not under real life contract next year)
            for opp’s
            melancon .4 mil (i extended to 6.4 in 2015-16)
            h.morris (MIL) CI (badly need CI prospects, and power hitting prospects)
            4th rounder (of course we’re already 500 minor guys deep now)

  25. Shake N Bacon says:

    So someone in my keeper league just spend some of their FAAB on Valverde. This team had #2 waiver priority and typically guys like Baez and Springer go for the max $100 FAAB bid in our league. So basically this guy just blew his chance at getting Baez or Springer for a handful of saves from Valverde. This team probably won’t be competing this year either.

    Seems a little crazy to me. You agree?

    • Shake N Bacon says:


      need more coffee

    • @Shake N Bacon: some don’t buy into the prospect craze & use their FAAB on what seem to be more controllable FAs… Nothing wrong w/ either strategy, but yes, upside w/ prospects is much greater.

  26. Operation Mindcrime says:

    When drafting, do you think a player’s status such as streaky Chris Carter being out of minor league options is a tiebreaker in their favor? Used that in Chris Archer’s favor too. Also took a flier on Andrelton being aware of streaking so as hitter but knowing he did hit 17 bombs last year, maybe could start stealing like in minors, and reasoning he’s probably only player in majors (Andrus?) that could play full season just cuz’ of defensive value and his 7 yr extension. Not near Brendan Ryan’s depths as a hitter I think.

  27. Chad Donaldson says:

    Please review my 12 team 8 keeper roster and rate it, holds and hits added to standard 5X5 league. Thanks in advance.

    Posey, Hosmer, Altuve, Longoria, Desmond, Billy Butler (2nd best moobs behind Adams), Machado, McCutchen, Gordon, Crisp, Brantley, K Wong, Escobar, Arcia.
    Jose Fernandez, Sale, Gray, Masterson, Matt Moore, Erasamo, J Peralta, Shawn Kelley, Frieri, Janssen, Henderson.

    Also thanks for reading this novel I just posted.

    • @Chad Donaldson: extremely solid — you’ve nabbed a number of guys I targeted this year (Jo-Fer, Arcia,Machado, butler, hosmer to name a few)

  28. J Mac says:

    Any chance on Billy Burns? What do you think of his prospects?

    • @J Mac: an extremely poor man’s billy hamilton

      • J Mac says:

        @Scott Evans: I hear that, but in a deep league with lots of bench space, he could have value if he comes up. Do you think he will?

        • @J Mac: Frankly, I don’t think he’ll hit enough to be more than a pinch runner type… won’t be ownable in most formats, including deep leagues…

          • Joey Belle says:

            @oatmeal: @Scott Evans: But hhat about the fact that in the minors hes OBPed better than Hamilton? OK I guess hes older….but still!

            • @Joey Belle: Well to start, I’m not all that high on Hamilton either, but at least he knocks some XBH… Burns is the definition of scrappy/slappy hitter, and that doesn’t usually go over very well at the highest level…

            • Well to start, I’m not all that high on Hamilton either, but at least he knocks some XBH… Burns is the definition of scrappy/slappy hitter, and that doesn’t usually go over very well at the highest level…

  29. Nightpandas says:


    Who do you like as a bench bat? Options i like are Villar, Wong, Arcia, Venable, Bryant, Pinto. Looking for upside or injury replacement as I have limited moves. (Tulo at SS, Gyorko at 2nd, R Zimm at 3rd). Could also grab a 9th starter (M Perez, Jordan, Meija, Heaney, E Johnson, Appel out there). 15 team toto, keep 11

  30. Dan Johnson says:

    Any chance we see Mark Appel or Jon Gray this year? Also what’s your eta for Marcus Stroman?

  31. Tin Man says:

    I know they have Hutchison up and Stroman will get the call before him but do you think there is any chance we see sanchez this year outta the blue jays system? And of so when exactly do you think we’ll get to see him??

    • @Tin Man: September if we see him at all, and I suspect we won’t… just given the way they treated Stroman late last season — he was ready for a look & they held him down — I figure Sanchez gets the same treatment…

  32. malamoney

    malamoney says:

    After Bradley, which pitcher will have the biggest fantasy impact this season?

    Heaney? Syndergaard? Zimmer? Bundy?

    • goodfold2 says:

      @malamoney: not bundy, almost for sure.

    • @malamoney: Gausman would be my pick, then guys like Syndergaard/Taillon/Stroman/Gray/Heaney… i expect a slew of impact rookie SP’s this year

  33. Wake Up says:

    Very calm and assertive post Prospect Whisperer!

    • Thanks a lot, man! Looking forward to some live ball!

      • Wake Up says:

        @Scott Evans: R yu kidding me? I have two cheeks full of sunflower seeds…taped my thumb up…and borrowed a maxipad that I’ve shaped into the form of a cup…that I keep readjusting…and I keep going to my forearm to my belt to my chest to my nose to my belt to my hat…waiting for someone to bunt!

  34. Bazzrall says:

    agree with all – want to see more posts like this since I like prospeccts wayyyy too much

  35. The Flayed Man says:

    Someone put Ventura on the block. Was thinking of making an offer but unsure what would be fair. Any ideas. The other owner is looking to repeat this year and has shown interest in Choo.


    12 team dynasty. 6×6 roto OPS and BB and QS K/9

    C Travis d’Arnaud
    1B Paul Goldschmidt
    2B Jedd Gyorko
    3B Miguel Cabrera
    SS Alcides Escobar
    IF Brandon Belt
    OF Jay Bruce
    OF Adam Jones
    OF Andrew McCutchen
    OF Shin-Soo Choo
    Util Starling Marte
    Util Avisail García
    BN Kolten Wong
    BN Xander Bogaerts
    BN Chris Owings
    BN Manny Machado
    DL Jurickson Profar

    SP Gerrit Cole
    SP Jordan Zimmermann
    RP Nate Jones
    RP Sergio Santos
    RP J.J. Hoover
    P Danny Salazar
    P Shelby Miller
    P Tanner Scheppers
    BN Rick Porcello
    BN Archie Bradley
    DL Doug Fister

    • The Flayed Man says:

      This is the other team’s roster. I did offer him Choo for J. Fernandez but he declined. He does really want Choo however.

      C Buster Posey
      1B Chris Davis
      2B Matt Carpenter
      3B Josh Donaldson
      SS Jean Segura
      IF Matt Adams
      OF Torii Hunter
      OF Denard Span
      OF Yasiel Puig
      OF Jacoby Ellsbury
      Util Dee Gordon
      Util Austin Jackson
      SP –empty–
      SP –empty–
      RP Brian Wilson
      RP Kenley Jansen
      P Joaquín Benoit
      P Luis Avilán
      P Nick Vincent
      P –empty–
      BN Martín Prado
      BN Salvador Pérez
      BN Zack Greinke
      BN José Fernández
      BN Michael Wacha
      BN Alex Wood
      BN Matt Moore
      BN Yordano Ventura
      BN Drew Hutchison

  36. Brokelyn says:

    Kris Bryant?

  37. Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:

    ozuna or choice in keep forever league, i kept choice pre draft before i realized i can’t NA him. It’ll be a while before he qualifies at anything but util. Ozuna was also a sort of high prospect, playing now and playing well (today, anyway)

    • Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:

      @Aubrey Plaza’s Pillow: same league. we get 5 NA guys. currently stashing feliz/stephenson/bradley/gallo/n.williams. somebody with too many NA guys kept odor over clint frazier. drop any of my prospects for frazier?

      • Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:

        @Aubrey Plaza’s Pillow: feliz only being kept in NA till he gets brought back up (assuming it’s soon). i also have a lot of young OF already in Leonys/stanton/williams/choice

  38. Swfcdan says:

    If you’re still checking man I’ve got an early interesting offer in.

    Give B Hamilton for Rendon.

    Prices are identical, both $0 for promoted prospects. For this year I have a lot of speed and OFs as it is, and obviously there are concerns over Hamilton’s hitting. I’m guessing as a Hamilton disbeliever you like the deal, but am I better waiting for a Hamilton hot streak first? Of course the caveat is he gets sent down to AAA and his value plummets. Im tempted to do it now, what do you think.

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