Points Leagues: Audacious Prognostications

It has become a staple of the preseason: Bold Predictions articles. I get it. They’re fun to read! I know I look forward to seeing what the rest of the staff here comes up with. However, theirs are almost certainly to be made with roto/categories leagues in mind. But what about the points league boldness? That’s what this space is for!

As we get into the audaciousness, be aware that the goal is not to tell you to go and reach for these guys at the expense of guys who are rated (by others and myself) higher than them. That would make this a Reckless Recommendations column. It’s not that. It’s just a way for me to highlight some best or worst case scenarios that I can see a path toward possibly happening. Such as…

Jacob Lopez Finishes as a Top-25 SP

Lopez wasn’t even on MarmosDad last top-100 list. Grey has him at 123. His fastball barely cracks 90 and he didn’t pitch after August 24th last year due to an arm issue. I know. There’s a reason this is an audacious thing to put out into the world. However, there is a reason I’m putting it out there.

That reason is how he performed in the last 14 starts he did make last year. In those games he went 7-2 with a 3.22 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and 87 K in 72.2 IP. If you don’t want to do the math and trust me to do it correctly, that’s 10.8 K/9. That’s really good!

It gets even better, though. In his last start, he gave up 9 ER in 2 innings. Considering he didn’t pitch again after that, I feel ok chalking that up to him not being at full health. Take that start out, and the 13 starts before that come out to a 2.17 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP. I’m not kicking that off my roster, are you?

This spring, Lopez has only appeared in a pair of official games but seems to be fully healthy and ready to go. In the Razzslam, I was able to get him with the 10th pick of round 32. His ADP across the major sites is 360. That puts him in the same range as Max Meyer and Cade Cavalli. He’s being taken 15 pitchers after David Peterson. That feels wild to me. It’s possible those guys end up being useful arms. (I drafted Peterson in TGFBI.) But Lopez is the one I look at and have dreams of delivering something close to ace-level production.

Miguel Vargas is a Top-12 1B

Last year Vargas hit .234 with a .717 OPS, a 40th percentile xSLG, and a whopping 16 HR. That doesn’t exactly scream “standout,” particularly at a position populated by guys like Nick Kurtz, Pete Alonso, and Bryce Harper. And if we were talking about roto leagues, I would completely agree. But we aren’t. We’re talking points leagues. And here, we look at his 70th% walk rate, and 72% strikeout rate, and 32 doubles, and we dream.

Once upon a time, Vargas was a highly rated prospect. For a variety of reasons, some of which were on him, he struggled in his early chances with the Dodgers. And when he first got traded to the White Sox, he looked broken, emotionally and mechanically. Last year, though, he showed real glimpses of the player it was once hoped he could be. This year, the lineup around him should be the best it’s been since he arrived on the South Side. That’s admittedly a floor-level bar to clear, but it’s something!

So when I look at Vargas, I see the chance that he does a Yandy Diaz impersonation, minus the comic book biceps. For years now, Diaz has been the poster boy for a middling roto 1B who’s a points league standout. Here’s saying Vargas follows in his footsteps, 166 spots later on draft day.

Jorge Polanco is a Top-5 2B

Ok, this one maybe isn’t that audacious. He did, after all, finish as a top-10 player there last year. And yet, look where he’s ranked! At CBS, which has points-specific rankings, he comes in at 9th. Fair enough. But ESPN does, too, and do you know where they have him? 19th! And he’s being drafted 20th! Among second basemen! I don’t get it.

I understand that Polanco had a couple years that were basically lost due to injuries. He played through it, but he clearly wasn’t right. Last year, he stayed mostly healthy, and the production followed. It wasn’t just that he got lucky, either, as the underlying metrics all indicate that he earned his results. Those results, I remind you, made him a top-10 option at second base.

This year, Polanco moves from Seattle to the orange and blue side of New York, which is a nice ballpark upgrade. He also finds himself penciled in to hit out of the cleanup spot in the order. The names in front of him? Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto, and Bo Bichette. Those are good names! In other words, RBI opportunities should be there in abundance. And to top it all off, he’s going to be playing 1B, which should put less wear and tear on his body throughout the season. Yes, please!

So is this pick particularly bold? Maybe not. Do I think Polanco is being significantly undervalued, at least in some corners of the points league universe? Yes. Use that to your advantage.

Ernie Clement is a Top-8 3B

Here’s where you call me a crazy person. I get it. I mean, look at this:

That isn’t great! Last season he hit 9 HR, had 50 RBI, and stole 6 bases. Third base might be weak, but it isn’t that weak, is it?

If this was bold predictions for your standard categories league, I would be well and truly off my rocker. However, it is not. We’re talking about points leagues. And for our purposes, Clement hit 35 doubles last season, scored 83 runs, and in 588 plate appearances struck out only 61 times. Particularly in leagues where strikeouts count for -1, that’s a big deal. How big of a deal is it? A big enough deal that he was safely in the top-10 of third basemen at sites that penalize Ks.

Looking at ESPN’s draft trends, Clement is actually the 10th guy coming off the board among 3B. So maybe that undercuts the audaciousness of this pick. But had I not told you that, would you have guessed that? Considering his overall ADP is as the number 35 3B at pick 259 overall, I’m guessing probably not.

Now, there are reasons beyond the low HR and RBI totals that most people completely overlook Clement outside of his multi-positional eligibility as a bench option. Specifically, betting on him to repeat his 83 runs scored while being set to bat 8th would be foolhardy. In points leagues, volume of plate appearances is a big deal, and that is not a spot conducive to a high one, even in a good lineup. But if Clement keeps putting the bat on the ball, and injury or underperformance of others moves him back up the lineup? Then the opportunity is there for him not just to be a bargain, but a sneaky league winner.

Pete Crow-Armstrong is not a Top-30 OF

Call me a hater. I probably deserve it. But I promise, it isn’t personal. I don’t even see it as a particularly likely outcome, hence its inclusion here. And yet I do see it as a possible outcome, hence its inclusion here.

So, why am I being Mr. Doom-and-gloom about one of last year’s breakout stars? In the first half last year the defensive dynamo hit a solid .265 with 25 HR and 27 SB. After the all-star break those numbers fell to .216, 6, and 8. The strikeout rate actually didn’t climb too terribly (23% to 26%), but it still went in the wrong direction.

So what was the issue? Let’s look at his Savant page.

I know I just said good things about Ernie Clement when his page didn’t look any better than this as a whole, and in some important ways was significantly worse. I get that. However, Clement is being drafted as an afterthought, while Crow-Armstrong is being drafted in the third round. I don’t know about you, but I prefer my top picks to make it obvious why they’re the building blocks of my team rather than late-game roster filler.

Now, Crow-Armstrong is still only 23 years old and is a phenomenal athlete. So even if he doesn’t take another step forward, I don’t really fear him completely cratering to the point that he finishes outside the top-60 OF the way Oneil Cruz did last year in some scoring systems. But finishing somewhere around the 35th best OF, I can definitely see. So, at the price it would cost to draft him, I’m out.