Good Morning baseball fans and welcome to Monday Morning Toilet Talk with Jared!

Hope everyone had a nice weekend.  As we start to get deeper into this shortened season we are getting to the point where we can really pick on up on trends and use some advanced statistics to determine who is playing well and who isn’t.  Today’s slate is a fun one.  There are some cheap bats that you can plug in that will help you pick up some of the higher priced bats that are in really great spots. As you can tell by the subject line, I’m pretty high on this Dustin May ($7,500) lad.  The Padres have some scary bats on their team.  Tatis, Machado, wait, that’s it.  May is pretty cheap tonight for his skill set.  Over the past 2 weeks, he’s K’ing nearly 11 per 9.  One of the things that really stands out to me is the 57% swing rate in the zone.  Essentially, that means players are fooled by his pitches.  He’s also inducing a soft contact rate of 27.30% over the past 2 weeks.  That’s 2nd best of all pitchers on today’s slate.

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The 2nd game in a row Dinelson Lamet has taken a no-hitter into the 6th inning and, this time, it went into the 7th, ending up 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 1 hit, 11 Ks, ERA at 1.61. I’m about to start moaning out his name like a pizza deliveryman in a porn. “I didn’t ask for sausage.” “And I didn’t ask for my salad to be hand-tossed, but here we are.” There’s no whacks on Dinelson as he keeps the whacks off. Now paint the fence! *Dinelson starts painting Mejia’s glove* No, the fence, not ‘fense. Forget it, you’re beautiful. There’s nothing to gleam from 22 1/3 IP, other than to say he’s regularly hitting 97 MPH, and, while he only has two pitches, they’re good and there’s no reason to think he can’t keep something resembling this for 40 more innings. With a drooling sly grin, “Did someone order a Meat Lover’s?” Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:

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While I’m sure we’re all ready to close our eyes and hum loudly until it’s 2030, I empathize with the fact that Wil Myers was probably doing the same thing circa 2018-2019. (Same thing Padres’ fans have done for the past millennia.) And I’ll be the first one to admit, there has been many-a-thing I’ve said about Myers in my humble yet strikingly handsome past, and I would say many of those things were not positive. But I was but a small voice in a larger chorus… Okay, not that large, there are like what, a dozen Padres fans? The other dozen are here just to wear our retro browns. But yeah, while he has a beautiful head of hair, Myers’ defense (lol) is akin to a cat drowning in quicksand, and his hitting, while not seppuku-worthy, doesn’t really match his albatross of a contract that will most likely last the next 58 years or so at the tune of 28 billionty dollars a month. Something like that. So of course, this time, of all times, is when Myers has chosen to rise out of this tulmit and actually hit the ball, so shall we examine what happens when keeping Wil actually goes right…

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After a mediocre opening week, I’m pretty happy with the results for last week. Alec Mills and Zach Plesac were great as our two-start streamers and guys like Michael Wacha, David Peterson and Christian Javier were solid too. The COVID craziness from last week is about to wreak havoc on the rest of the season though, with St. Louis likely missing more games. There are so many doubleheaders this week and it’s hard to even grasp what these rotations will look like and when people will pitch. I do have a decent idea right now though and I’ll do my best to provide you with some great streamers to ride the wave this week! 

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Welcome back to JKJ’s School of Waiver Wire Wizardry. It’s time for Lesson Two, where I hope to improve upon my decently successful Lesson One.

James Karinchak doesn’t have the closer gig like I and many others thought he would, so that’s a big time bummer, not only as-an-analyst-wise, but also multiple-Karinchak-owner-wise. Still worth a stash because Brad Hand really isn’t all that great anymore, and Karinchak is a good ratios and strikeout guy, and holds if your league counts ’em. Hand’s K-rate is still very healthy, but man he’s given up a lot of barreled balls already and the xERA is over 4. I really think it’s only a matter of time.

Colin Moran predictably has gone cold. Teoscar Hernandez a little bit as well but the BA is still healthy (for now). JaCoby Jones has been holding up nicely, at least. Oh, and that Trent Grisham guy is raking. He’s looking like a budding superstar, with the rare power and speed combo we just don’t see much in baseball anymore. I tossed in a quick note about Donovan Solano at the end, and he’s been smacking base hit after base hit since. Planned to cover him this week but his ownership rates ballooned.

Nothing to write home about with my other picks from last week. Let’s see if I do better this time around.

Remember, students, 2020 is a weird one. The hotties need to be given a shot. Don’t be the guy who looks back at the missed opportunities that could have given you your asterisk-laden fantasy baseball title! Just kidding, for the record. No asterisks this year. We’re all in this same crazy boat together.

Note: Only players in the 30th percentiles (39% or below) on either Yahoo! or ESPN are considered. All stats as of 8/7/2020. 

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The last few times of written my DFS articles the pitching has been atrocious, as seems to be the norm this season.  Today however, we have an abundance of aces to choose from.  Picking which one will produce the best value is the tricky part.  Jacob deGrom ($11,100) is the most expensive options, but given his opponent, is the one most likely to win you your cash games and even keep you in your GPPs.  The Marlins continue to be a team I am targeting whenever I can and deGrom should have a field day with them.  Can we expect 7+ innings and double digit strikeouts?  I believe we can!  DeGrom is also only $300 more than Sonny Gray, which seems wild to me, but I’m plugging and playing deGrom today.

New to FanDuel? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well, be sure to read our content and subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays. Just remember to sign up through us before jumping into the fray. It’s how we know you care!

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NOTE: This ranking is focused on redraft impact of players who’ve yet to debut in 2020. It’s a snapshot of all the information I can synthesize as of publication day. 

Here’s Volume 1.

Graduates from Vol. 1 = Jo Adell, Monte Harrison

Here’s Volume 2.

Graduates from Vol. 2 = Spencer Howard*, Alex Reyes, Jordan Yamamoto, Joely Rodriguez

Busy weeks like these are alright alright by me. Let’s get to the list. 

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Most of the starting pitchers for week 3’s games haven’t even been officially announced yet. Pair this with reports that MLB is warning television stations to get their Big Bang Theory re-runs and copies of Shawshank Redemption loaded up and it’s hard to be optimistic about the season. The chart I’m working off only has 4 starters confirmed so I had to do some diggin’, scratchin’, and prognosticatin’ to try and determine exactly who might be a two-start pitcher for this week. Below, you’ll find 4 tiers below of week 3’s two-starters. They are in order of descending disappointment. That’s not to say you can’t find any one-start gems in the lower tiers, but I just can’t recommend rolling them out for both starts. 

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If I’m putting all my cards on the table, I’m not even sure where to begin with advice. This season is just plain crazy. Figuring out who, what, where, when and why almost seems impossible. I’m certainly not the first to say this, but it seems like the best thing we can do is to play the hot hand. As Frank the Tank said, we’re going streaking! Not to show of my math skills, but in a 60-game season a 8-game hot streak is the equivalent of 21 game hot streak in a regular season. That’s one hell of a month of baseball. In years past we’ve looked at small sample sizes and pointed out that they were just that, small samples. No such thing as a small sample size in 2020.

Before I jump into a few players to whom I intend to give a shout out, I’d like to bring up a few points. With all of the game cancellations and postponements, fantasy leagues with weekly lineups just aren’t going to work. For years I’ve always hated when a player hits the IL on a Tuesday in a weekly league and I end up practically taking a zero. It seems senseless. In order for things to work, head-to-head points leagues need to have daily lineups this year. Owners need the ability to adjust to the constantly changing landscape. We need to be able to pivot. Losing a week simply because you had more players have their games canceled is garbage. Especially in a season that has so few weeks. While I realize that at this point in the fantasy season it’s too late to make these kind of changes, I still feel compelled to say so.

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Things are weird in this short season, that’s putting it lightly.  One thing I’m finding myself looking at more and more is riding the hot hand.  It’s a nine week season, if someone goes on a three week heater, that’s…hold on…carry the one…a third of the season!  It’s for reasons such as this I’m giving an extra hard look to David Peterson ($8,300).  Peterson is not someone I’d normally give much thought to, but given his hot start (8.5 K/9, 3.86 ERA and 3.03 FIP) I’m intrigued.  Peterson might not amount to more than a quad-A player when all is said and done, but he’s lucky in that his opponent tonight is a quad-A team, enter the Miami Marlins.  The Marlins will be a target for my DFS pitchers for most of the season, sorry Monte Harrison, I’m not buying the Marlin Hype through eight games.  Deploy Peterson, fry those fish and collect those green screens.

New to FanDuel? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well, be sure to read our content and subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays. Just remember to sign up through us before jumping into the fray. It’s how we know you care!

Please, blog, may I have some more?