Outfields In Flux, Injury Returns And Trade Deadline On Tap

Baseball is back, and the trade deadline looms next week. What better time than an edition of “Outfielders in Flux”? Well, after the deadline is probably a better time. But now beats most everything else as we try to get ahead of any moves. Injured guys return, others might get traded, etc. Since we play Fantasy Baseball here, “Outfield” refers to guys that are eligible for us, even if they don’t actually roam the grass anymore. Anyways…stats are through Saturday.

Tigers

Riley Greene

Parker Meadows

Wenceel Perez

Matt Vierling

Kerry Carpenter

It’s a confusing mess here for our purposes. One guy has a clear role at the moment, and that’s Riley Greene. You do not need me to mention that the All-Star was a fantastic draft or auction pickup and should start and star in all formats. Even his Country Music near-namesake is having a huge year.

Beyond Greene, though, watch out. For the second season in a row, Parker Meadows looked headed for a breakout. It’s anything but. He returned from the IL on June 2nd, and in 33 games has hit just .189 with 2 homers and 3 steals, and he now sits 1-2 times per week. There’s nothing under the hood suggesting this will get better soon, as he’s carrying a 30.6% K% and just a 29.7% HardHit%. At first, I thought maybe his early games were his de facto Spring Training, but it’s well past that now. In pre-season, he projected as a full-time player and leadoff hitter, at least vs. righties. Not so much at this point, he’s tough to hold even in deep leagues.

Wenceel starts in RF most days, and looks super solid through 149 PA’s. He sports an interesting combo of pop (12.3% Barrel%, 7 homers) and plate skills (20.8% K%, 37.7% LA Sweet Spot%) and chip-in speed. He stole 9 bags in 425 PA’s last year, and has 2 so far this season. 

Vierling works his way into the starting lineup against all lefties and enough righties that he plays about half the time. Like Meadows, though, he missed a boatload of time with injuries, and has not hit upon his return, just a .190 BA and .256 wOBA, albeit in 51 PA’s.

Carpenter looms. He should return in a couple weeks, and “Kerry Bonds” will start vs. all righties and some lefties. Yes, he profiles as a DH, but he’s not a terrible fielder (30th percentile Fielding Runs value as per Statcast). Also, the Tigers have mostly used Colt Keith as DH, and with a .337 wOBA and .369 xwOBA, he’s hitting too well to sit. 

This will almost certainly result in Meadows, Vierling, and Perez dividing up one spot. Wenceel hits the best, but is a clear defensive downgrade in CF. Vierling can play 3B also, but he looks headed for short-side platoon-ville. Meadows’ glove and upside may keep him around, but long story short, they could all have minuscule Fantasy value, even in Deep leagues.

Rays

Josh Lowe

Jake Mangum

Chandler Simpson

Christopher Morel

Jonny DeLuca

Other than Morel, these guys all have Fantasy value. Simpson sports a .316 average, 26 runs, and 27 steals in 55 games. Mangum’s batting .306 with 14 steals of his own in 63 games. Lowe hit .292 with 20 homers and 32 steals in 2023, and while he’s tailed off and missed time in the last two seasons, he still has 15 homer, 30 steal upside in a full season.

They also all have huge flaws. Simpson has literally zero power and rates as a poor fielder despite his 99th percentile sprint speed. Mangum is a 29 year old breaking into MLB for the first time and has very little pop (2 homers and 6 barrels in 237 PA’s, and a -1.0 Launch Angle). His defensive metrics are better than Simpson, but not actually good as Statcast gives him 44th percentile Fielding Runs value. Lowe is by far the best all-around player in the group, but he strictly platoons as he has a .205 BA and 62 wRC+ vs. lefties in his career. Morel is a bad fielding K machine with occasional power surges that just gives the Rays a short side platoon guy.

DeLuca has barely played this season, but he just started rehab and will presumably return and potentially clog this all up in a week or two. Now, unless you are a big DeLuca owner, the best case is that the Rays DFA Morel and just insert DeLuca into the short side platoon role. But who are we kidding, it’s the Rays, it’s never that simple. DeLuca is the worst hitter among the non-Morels as he has a .234 average and .284 wOBA in his 432 PA career. His Statcast page from 2024 looks Michael Harris II bad.

 

But like Michael Harris, he fields very well in CF, and the Rays prioritize great gloves in the key spots. I mean, they forever roll out Taylor Walls and his yearly .550 OPS at shortstop. Who am I to argue? This team is always competitive. So with everyone healthy, I’d guess that barring a surprise trade, Mangum and Simpson lose time, and Morel loses his job.

Blue Jays

George Springer

Addison Barger

Nathan Lukes

Joey Loperfido

Myles Straw

Daulton Varsho

Anthony Santander

If you heard that the 2025 Jays sat in first place in the AL East in mid-July, you would naturally assume that Vlad Jr. was having a monster season and Santander kept his 2024 power surge going. But that’s of course not the case as Vlad is having a meh season by his standards and Santander provided virtually nothing and hasn’t played since May. He’s made no progress towards a return, so he will not muck up any playing time in the near future.

Varsho, on the other hand, just began rehab and will return soon. And he will play every day (save for occasional rest as he ramps up). He graded as a 99th percentile center fielder in 2024. Definitely scoop him up in all deeper formats, and even shallower ones if you need pop and can withstand the batting average risk. He has 8 homers and 11 barrels already in 100 PA’s, with a .207 Avg and 31% K%. 

Springer will DH and sprinkle in some RF. He’s 35 and sits once per week or so, but he’s having his best year at the plate since 2021 and providing huge Fantasy value with 16 homers, 12 steals, and a .276 average.

So that leaves basically 2 spots for the rest of the gang above. Barger continues to rake with a .276 BA, 13.8% Barrel%, and 93.3 EV, so he’s not going anywhere. He can play 3rd, though, so he likely moves there on a more full-time basis. That bumps Ernie Clement over to 2nd and Will Wagner to the bench. This could get crowded if/when Andres Gimenez returns, but Barger’s bat will keep him in somewhere.

Lukes is kind of like Mangum, but even older. He’s 31 and hitting very well, .276 with a fantastic 11.8% BB% to 12.3% K% ratio. Also, like Mangum, he has virtually no pop, with a 3.9% career Barrel%. He mostly leads off vs. righties, and he sometimes sits vs. southpaws. He should keep his spot as long as he keeps getting on base. Loperfido’s a good but late blooming prospect who came over from the Astros in last year’s Yusei Kikuchi trade. He’d be worth a deep league pickup if he played, and he has started vs. righties since his July 6th callup. But it looks like the PT and maybe even the roster spot will vanish when Varsho is back. Straw has no Fantasy value might just get DFA’d.

Yada yada yada, the mini PT crush from Varsho will turn into a big one if/when Gimenez comes back. Or by some medical miracle, Santander returns. Ride Lukes now, maybe in deeper leagues, but that window could close soon.

 

Twins

Byron Buxton

Trevor Larnach

Matt Wallner

Harrison Bader

Kody Clemens

Willi Castro

Luke Keaschall

That sounds like a lot of OF’s, but they can all play for now with one of the first 4 at DH, Clemens at 1st, Castro at 2nd, and Keaschall on the IL. But Keaschall might already be back by the time you read this.

He does not play the outfield, but he’s going to impact everyone’s PT. As it stands now, Buxton plays every day he’s healthy. As well he should, he’s a superstar having a career year with 22 homers, 17 steals, and a .389 wOBA. Castro has a .348 wOBA and can play all over the field, and should continue in an everyday role. Larnach, Wallner, and Clemens all sit vs. virtually most lefties as the Twins lead the league in “line change” lineups.

So what happens when Keaschall is back? He’s a top prospect and looked great in his really brief 26 PA cameo earlier this season, rocking a .538 OBP with 5 steals. The Twins figure to lightly sell at the deadline, so that could free up a spot. Bader’s on a 1 year $6 mil deal with a mutual option for 2026 that one side or the other won’t exercise. And he’s having a nice season with a .335 wOBA, 11 homers, and 8 steals in 274 PA’s, plus he plays excellent OF defense. He’ll fit some contender as a 4th OF type. Another spot could clear here if the Twins send occasional 1B Ty France packing and play Keaschall there. 

Finally, Clemens himself could get moved. The Twins got him from the Phillies for basically less than the value of the shattered bat shards his dad once threw at Mike Piazza. And he’s really paid off, playing plus defense at 1st, 2nd, and the OF corners and rocking a 14% Barrel% with a 94.6 EV in Minnesota. The Twins have no need to trade him as he makes the league minimum and can’t hit free agency until 2030 as a 34 year old. But they may want to sell high here since they effectively found money hiding in their coach on this add.

The bottom line is none of the non-Buxton options have enormous Fantasy value anyway. Bader is interesting in deep leagues when he plays, so maybe the coming roster crunch gets him moved to something closer to a full time run. Right now, he only starts about half of games, and that will only drop with the Twins.